Will Pohlad Family Cut Minnesota Twins Payroll Another $30 Million in 2026? Dan Hayes Thinks So

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If so I hope fans don't fall for this, and I hope local media doesn't fall for this and print this Pohlad propaganda uncritically.

If they were losing $40mil/year - or $4m/year, or $4/year - they would have sold the team for a song.  

If they were losing $40mil/year no investor on the planet would sign on.  

The Pohlads are not losing money.  

I don't think they are either, but they would certainly lose $10M per year if the club was appreciating at $50M per year, especially since previously they'd been able to simply borrow against the team for the "losses".

But even if they were losing money (a premise I won't accept without seeing the books, because the Pohlads cannot be trusted; no owner can, frankly) it would be mostly because of their own incompetence at the business of running a pro sports franchise. They've completely bungled their media rights and opportunities over the past 10-20 years to the point that now their media rights may be run by MLB.

I'm sure it's true that they've run up hundreds of millions of debt on their books...but how and why it got there remains to be told. How much did they assign from "related" business deals? How much was from their contribution to build Target Field? How much was from debt service since they apparently borrowed all the time rather than do a capital call? How much of an actual operating deficit did they run and why?

They are not to be trusted on money matters.

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

A question about position #23.  Wouldn't Wallner>>>Gonzales/Rosario make league minimum instead of the $2.2M you have?

Wallner starts the season in the OF and is forced into a primary DH role by an OF prospect that plays better defense.  Of course, it's possible he gets traded at some point in 2026.  The 2.2 assumes allows for the possibility he steps up and remains with the team or remains with the team in a diminished role.  It won't make much difference ($1.4m) either way so in terms of payroll it's not much of an issue.

[Nashvilletwin]

1. The Twins are not looking to be a playoff contender in ‘26.   They know they don’t have the roster and they don’t have the money to do anything about that.  Besides, Rocco is supposed to be back and there is no way Rocco can win with a young roster.

2. The Pohlads are looking to cut costs and reduce their losses in what is certainly going to be a down year in ‘26.  Why throw good money after bad, especially when TV money can’t bail you out.

3. There is not going to be baseball in ‘27, at least not very much of it (best case scenario). This is another reason to cut payroll and hoard young talent in ‘26.  It also means that high cost players currently under control for two more years (Lopez, Ryan, and even Jeffers and Ober) really only have one year of control left.  And none of them are coming back in ‘28.  Zero chance of that. Given the intention is not to win in ‘26, but to develop young talent, there is much more value in trading those players this off-season for even more young (cheap) projectable talent than there is in paying/keeping them for a futile ‘26. Lopez and Ryan should and will be traded.

4. The Pohlads do want to sell.  They didn’t sell this year because they couldn’t get the price they wanted given the team’s poor financial condition, performance and outlook.   They think they can get more value by holding on to the team into ‘28 by cutting costs, getting a new TV deal, a better CBA, and effecting a rebuild.  Look for the team to be back on the sale docket in ‘28. Sadly, this is probably the smart decision.

So it’s going to be an additional couple of tough years for us Twins fans.  But we can all comfort ourselves by reading TD articles about how good and can’t miss our prospects are.

[P Meyer]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

Why must we trade Pablo's salary?  With him they are still under $100M.   Ryan will be the first to be traded because he would bring back two top 100 prospects and one of them would be a 1-3 ranked prospect for most teams.  Those are key components in getting to the next level.   Then, trade whichever player brings back the best package between Pablo and Ober.  Keep one of them around for veteran presence.  Pablo impresses me as the better veteran presence. 

Waiting until the deadline to trade Ryan is a huge mistake unless for some reason a great return is not presented this winter.  The return should be better this winter and they avoid injury risk.   My guess is that Ryan is by far the most likely of the three to be traded.  Keeping him would be a failure to commit to a rebuild which is the would be truly unfortunate.   

This would leave us with Ober/Matthews/Festa/SWR/Bradley/Able/Morris who are ready and a couple of Rojas / Raya / Prelipp / Culpepper and should be ready at some point in 2026.  Of course, it's possible perhaps even likely they get a SP for Ryan or Ober that will be ready for 2026 or at some point in 2026.

Trading Pablo's salary isn't a must, but it seems like the most cost impactful move. It will be an easier trade to make than Ryan. There are young, cheap arms to bring up to back fill the rotation. It will be the same with Ober. 

 

A Ryan trade would have nothing to do with salary, but instead be a compensation move. The tough part is it will be a very scrutinized deal and a difficult one to do. Also, new partners might be less inclined to be ok with getting rid of one of the two most recognizable players the Twins have. 

 

The idea is to pay off the debt that is making the sale unattractive, and prepare for the potential lockout. Not necessarily deal everyone of value.

[Rhyno006]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

Yeah, sure...they're committed to building a competitive winning team here. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Hmmm... Do all the naysayers out there still believe that Lopez and/or Ryan will be a part of the rotation next year? Do all the naysayers still believe the Twins will carry a payroll north of $100m? Everybody that is suggesting that the Twins will spend this offseason has not been paying attention.

You have to truly look at Ober and Larnach as move candidates as well. The only move that would really surprise me would be Jeffers because of positional scarcity.

 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

1. The Twins are not looking to be a playoff contender in ‘26.   They know they don’t have the roster and they don’t have the money to do anything about that.  Besides, Rocco is supposed to be back and there is no way Rocco can win with a young roster.

2. The Pohlads are looking to cut costs and reduce their losses in what is certainly going to be a down year in ‘26.  Why throw good money after bad, especially when TV money can’t bail you out.

3. There is not going to be baseball in ‘27, at least not very much of it (best case scenario). This is another reason to cut payroll and hoard young talent in ‘26.  It also means that high cost players currently under control for two more years (Lopez, Ryan, and even Jeffers and Ober) really only have one year of control left.  And none of them are coming back in ‘28.  Zero chance of that. Given the intention is not to win in ‘26, but to develop young talent, there is much more value in trading those players this off-season for even more young (cheap) projectable talent than there is in paying/keeping them for a futile ‘26. Lopez and Ryan should and will be traded.

4. The Pohlads do want to sell.  They didn’t sell this year because they couldn’t get the price they wanted given the team’s poor financial condition, performance and outlook.   They think they can get more value by holding on to the team into ‘28 by cutting costs, getting a new TV deal, a better CBA, and effecting a rebuild.  Look for the team to be back on the sale docket in ‘28. Sadly, this is probably the smart decision.

So it’s going to be an additional couple of tough years for us Twins fans.  But we can all comfort ourselves by reading TD articles about how good and can’t miss our prospects are.

Yeah I hate to say it, but they are just trying to get into better position to sell the team.  Lowering payroll should enable them to help pay down the debt which helps them up their return. 

There also could be a long lockout and who knows how that will work out and if there truly is no baseball for a year getting rid of older expensive assets makes some sense for teams like the Twins. Also if expansion is included in the CBA and happens it sounds like all the owners will get a cut  of whatever the franchise cost is so I'm sure they won't want to sell until that money comes in.

It's a business, I get it, but I don't know if my fandom can survive it.  I guess we'll find out. Maybe if the young guys can find a way to get it done it won't be so bad?

[In My La Z boy]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why must we trade Pablo's salary?  With him they are still under $100M.   Ryan will be the first to be traded because he would bring back two top 100 prospects and one of them would be a 1-3 ranked prospect for most teams.  Those are key components in getting to the next level.   Then, trade whichever player brings back the best package between Pablo and Ober.  Keep one of them around for veteran presence.  Pablo impresses me as the better veteran presence. 

Waiting until the deadline to trade Ryan is a huge mistake unless for some reason a great return is not presented this winter.  The return should be better this winter and they avoid injury risk.   My guess is that Ryan is by far the most likely of the three to be traded.  Keeping him would be a failure to commit to a rebuild which is the would be truly unfortunate.   

This would leave us with Ober/Matthews/Festa/SWR/Bradley/Able/Morris who are ready and a couple of Rojas / Raya / Prelipp / Culpepper and should be ready at some point in 2026.  Of course, it's possible perhaps even likely they get a SP for Ryan or Ober that will be ready for 2026 or at some point in 2026.

A true and deep rebuild gets rid of veteran salary and that's why you trade Pablo. I am NOT FOR THIS, just saying why. Pablo will bring back a stud prospect for sure. On Joe Ryan - we will enter 2026 with perhaps the #2 or #3 farm system as it stands, especially if Pablo gets traded. We don't NEED to trade Joe to have a top tier system - and keeping him gives us a chance. Now if we stink it up in 2026 Joe still brings perhaps what he'd bring this winter, at the 2026 trade deadline. We give up hardly nothing by keeping him till next July, unless he gets hurt, or sucks. A #1 starter is really hard to come by. Joe can be/and might already be a #1. Pablo is good, and a real good #3, but Joe could be special. Too special to trade yet I think.

[T.O.]

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

I'll save the Pohlands 8 million. Dump Rocco and I will manage the team for 2 mil....1 million if you keep Lopez, Ryan and bring up Abel next year. That's the offer, waiting by the phone.

For a team going to ridiculous lengths to save money they would never pay that kind of money in a guaranteed contract to a fired employee. Plus firing him would be admitting mistake. That will never happen. 

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

It's largely going to be the same team we are seeing now.  

A few of the players will be back but if the roster still contains most of the current group all hope for the franchise is lost. There must be a half dozen transactions to change the team dynamics. Slow, defensively challenged players who cannot hit don't need more experience. They need new uniforms. I expect major changes. That is my last hope.

[Maybe Next Year]

2 hours ago, Dennesey55347 said:

The past decade has been the beginning of the end of quality Twins baseball. It's also the end of the difference-making, offensive free agent era, unless we overpay. Every talented position player brought up from the minors turns out to be another underdeveloped, expendable guy the Twins hold onto for too long. The current tank might net us yet another solid player, but I already know his fate based on the dozens before him. Fully detached, personally, but glance at stats here and there after checking on the quality org's players first. So, so many exciting studs out there.

On a positive note, trimming payroll increases the chances of having a row of seats all to myself should I ever purchase a ticket. 

 

 

Why is it every talented player they bring up from the minors turns out to be underdeveloped and expendable - one word, Baldelli! The worst manager in all of baseball.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm sure all the money they bank next year in the rebuild will be stashed away, ready to pounce as soon as we're contenders!

[hitterscount]

16 minutes ago, T.O. said:

For a team going to ridiculous lengths to save money they would never pay that kind of money in a guaranteed contract to a fired employee. Plus firing him would be admitting mistake. That will never happen. 

Analytic guy didn't believe Rocco was making 10 mil/year. Digger deepiing it appears it is more like 2.4 million. AI let me down and cannot be trusted.

With that I withdraw my offer. I need a roster with MLB talent to right this ship.

[rdehring]

Here we go again talking about what the Twins payroll will be.  Or should be?

I believe the Brewers payroll this year is just a bit over $100M.  Isn't Cleveland a bit under $100M?  The topic we should be talking about is what the Twins are doing with their payroll.  Whatever level it is at.

The Twins can win with a +/- $100M payroll as others are doing it.  Can this front office and on field coaching staff do what is needed to make the Twins a winner?  That's the question.  At least for me.

[jmlease1]

35 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

4. The Pohlads do want to sell.  They didn’t sell this year because they couldn’t get the price they wanted given the team’s poor financial condition, performance and outlook.   They think they can get more value by holding on to the team into ‘28 by cutting costs, getting a new TV deal, a better CBA, and effecting a rebuild.  Look for the team to be back on the sale docket in ‘28. Sadly, this is probably the smart decision.

I think this is partly right. They didn't sell controlling interest because they couldn't get the price they wanted...but also because they found a solution to their cash issues that let them keep the team, which is an asset that will continue to appreciate. If they get back to their bottom tier spending ways and start turning an operating profit again, they'll be perfectly happy to continue on owning the team and letting Joe Pohlad keep steering the ship for the family.

They've likely generated between $450-$500M in cash from what we've heard so far (more than 20% sold and at a valuation above the $1.7B, supposedly); if they use that to wipe the debt off, there's still money left to do a distribution to the Pohlad family to give them a cash infusion for other businesses/activity. They can run 2026 at a profit by not spending on players and dropping the payroll to $75M, and use that to get through the lockout we're likely to see in 2027. If they're in a better financial position in 2028, why would they sell? The asset will continue to appreciate, they're not losing money any longer, and they have a family member willing & eager to be the front man. We could be stuck with them for another 10-15 effing years.

I mean, I hope you're right: I hope the Pohlads sell the rest after 2027, if not sooner. But I'm not betting on it. And I'm certainly not going to bet that fan hatred will move them one bit. Most people wouldn't know a Pohlad if they came up and bit them on the leg, and it's easy enough for them to skip out on going to games, especially since most of them aren't all that into baseball anyways.

Our ownership situation sucks.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

A true and deep rebuild gets rid of veteran salary and that's why you trade Pablo. I am NOT FOR THIS, just saying why. Pablo will bring back a stud prospect for sure. On Joe Ryan - we will enter 2026 with perhaps the #2 or #3 farm system as it stands, especially if Pablo gets traded. We don't NEED to trade Joe to have a top tier system - and keeping him gives us a chance. Now if we stink it up in 2026 Joe still brings perhaps what he'd bring this winter, at the 2026 trade deadline. We give up hardly nothing by keeping him till next July, unless he gets hurt, or sucks. A #1 starter is really hard to come by. Joe can be/and might already be a #1. Pablo is good, and a real good #3, but Joe could be special. Too special to trade yet I think.

We just see the situation differently.   I don't subscribe to the theory that we should hold onto players during a rebuild because we already have a highly ranked farm system.  Improving the system improves the likelihood of success in the post rebuild years and Ryan is the type of player that brings back premium prospects. That's always key to building a new core.   

I don't agree we give up nothing to keep him until the trade deadline.  The return is generally better in the off-season and we avoid the risk of injury or underperformance which is substantial.  The most attractive players to trade during a rebuild are the star players.  Garrett Crochet for example.   The Royals most likely don't win the WS had they held on to Greinke.  Holding on to that type of player has the highest future cost which is a bad idea when there is little present benefit in terms of playoff aspirations, and you have decided to play for the future.  

[GNess]

Well presented article which shows a likely pathetic and predictable salary dump by the Twins going forward.

[In My La Z boy]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

We just see the situation differently.   I don't prescribe to the theory that we should hold onto players during a rebuild because we already have a highly ranked farm system.  Improving the system improves the likelihood of success in the post rebuild years and Ryan is the type of player that brings back premium prospects. That's always key to building a new core.   

I don't agree we give up nothing to keep him until the trade deadline.  The return is generally better in the off-season and we avoid the risk of injury or underperformance which is substantial.  The most attractive players to trade during a rebuild are the star players.  Garrett Crochet for example.   The Royals most likely don't win the WS had they held on to Greinke.  Holding on to that type of player has the highest future cost which is a bad idea when there is little present benefit in terms of playoff aspirations, and you have decided to play for the future.  

Wish I had more faith in our player development department. I'd agree if I thought we could turn these kids into stars. Big fail on position players in the Falvey era, and now with the kind of year Lewis, Wallner and Larnach have had - those 3 were each 1st round draft picks, and along with Lee, who looks like a bench player, what have we got with our last 5 or 6 #1 picks? Kirilloff & Rooker were also #1's. Falvey seems good w/Pitchers and awful with position players on drafting & developing.

[Chembry]

I don't see the Twins spending much this offseason, just some bullpen help.  Will their payroll be under $100M...who knows.  Nobody knows what the Twins number is, but it is likely they will have to have a payroll close to $100M to avoid a grievance from MLBPA.  

I do see the them being active on the trade market.  I can see them making moves that help now and in the future.  For example, there is quite a bit of speculation that Aaron Judge is moving to first base after this year  That moves Ben Rice behind the plate and the need to fill RF.  Austin Wells has been seeing limited playing time recently .  I can see the Twins trading Larnach or Wallner (plus a prospect if needed to even out) for Austin Wells (who can play C or 1B) who would be under team control through 2029.  That is purely a hypothetical trade, but I can see the Twins making moves similar to that.   

[ashbury]

Don't look now but perennial All-Star and two-time Hall of Fame inductee Luke Keaschall is OPSing .604 in his last ten games.  Buckle up and strap in - 2026 will be a bumpy ride.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Don't look now but perennial All-Star and two-time Hall of Fame inductee Luke Keaschall is OPSing .603 in his last ten games.  Buckle up and strap in - 2026 will be a bumpy ride.

As an optimist i prefer to look at this as a renewed opportunity to ink "The Luke Abides" to a team friendly lifetime contract.

 

[farmerguychris]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You mean to tell me that when the Pohlads say they want to win that they may not mean exactly that? Ugh

I think their definition of 'winning' is different than the fan's version of the same word.  

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I think their definition of 'winning' is different than the fan's version of the same word.  

[saviking]

3 hours ago, Doug Y said:

If they trade Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, it’s a 3-4 year rebuild. The Pohlad’s are terrible owners, but don’t you think it’s about time for a salary floor and salary cap?

If they arent going to spend might as well totally rebuild. 

[AKTwinsFan]

If the Pohlands don't use the money they got from selling minory stakes in the team to pay off THEIR own debts, the teams gonna lose more fans and revenue. Extending Baldelli already is gonna lose fans, and games! I see us being around a 60-75 win team next season at MOST. If we truly want to go in a new direction we'd hire on a new skipper and hitting coach. Id probably keep Maki around as pitching coach but that's it!

[farmerguychris]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Here is a projected payroll for next year.  Of course, we have to make some assumptions.  I come up with around $77M if they trade Pable and Ryan which I suspect they will.  Larnach is traded as well.  This also includes adding two RPs at a salary of $5M each.  Correa's $10M is included.

There are a couple other assumptions here that don't mean much in terms of payroll.  Culpepper eventually takes over for Lee at SS moving Lee to a utility IF role.  The year starts with Fitzgerald in that utility role but it could be Eeles or they could sign a Wili Castro equivalent for a bench role.  Of course, the return for Ryan/Lopez has a good chance of containing pieces that fit in at some point in 2026.

1	Bailey Ober	7,000,000
2	Zebby Matthews	820,000
3	Taj Bradley	820,000
4	David Festa	820,000
5	SWR	820,000
	Relief Pitchers
6	Cole Sands	820,000
7	LH Free Agent	5,000,000
8	RH Free Agent	5,000,000
9	Michael Tonkin	1,750,000
10	Justin Topa	1,750,000
11	Travis Adams	820,000
12	Andrew Morris	820,000
13	Funderburk	820,000
	Catchers
14	Ryan Jeffers	6,500,000
15	Cardenas  /  Trade  /  FA	6,000,000
	Infielders
1B	Fedko / Julien / Sabato	820,000
2B	Luke Keaschall	820,000
3B	Royce Lewis	3,000,000
SS	Brooks Lee  >>> Kaelen Culpepper	820,000
	Utility Players
20	Kody Clemens	820,000
21	Fitzgerald  >>>  Brooks Lee	820,000
22	Kyler Fedko	820,000
23	Wallner  >>> Gonzalez / Rosario	2,200,000
	Outfielders
24	Wallner  >>> Jenkins	820,000
25	Byron Buxton  CF	15,142,857
26	Roden  >>> Gonzalez or Erod	820,000
	Carlos Correa	10,000,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	76,462,857

I can't see this happening - too optimistic for me when it comes to the Pohlads.

While I think you're right that they'll move on from Lopez and Ryan - I can't see them giving $7M to Ober when he's been hurt and we have so much CHEAP young pitching supposedly ready to go.  Abel?

I also can't possibly imagine they pay 2 relievers $5M each!  They've never invested in relief pitching - I expect 2 more min salary guys here.

Lastly - They are certainly not going to pay $6M for a backup catcher.  I think we'll be lucky to keep Jeffers around, his back-up will certainly be a min salary guy.

Other than that - I think you're pretty close.  Using most of your figures and swapping out my thoughts above - my payroll prediction would be around $56,742,857

Not sure how low we need to go before MLB steps in and tells the owners they need to spend money (like they did with the A's), but I expect they'll try to find out.

[farmerguychris]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I'd be more interested in an argument for why the Pohlads WON'T be running lean payrolls.  Does anyone seriously think they did what they did at the deadline for baseball reasons?  What in the Pohlads history for the past 3 decades would lead anyone to believe they are going to suddenly care about winning?  

It's a lot easier to understand the Pohlads when you understand that everything they do is related to money.  They do not care about the baseball at all.    

They brought on a couple investors to pay off their debt (billionaire rule #1: never ever spend your own money if you can spend someone else's instead), so the goal for the next few years will be paying back the investors.  They'll drive costs down as far as they can.  From a baseball perspective the goal will be to field A Team.  Not a good team, not a serious team, not a well-constructed team, but just a list of cheap players that fill out a roster.  (For a preview, look at their current roster.)  They'll sign a bunch of 34-year old washups on 1 year deals and keep young guys in the minors as long as they can save a few arb nickels in 2032.  Just a collection of guys they can trot out at Target Field 81 times a year for that sweet, sweet gate.  

They're not reloading, they're not rebuilding, they're just recalibrating the operating budget downward.  

From everything I've heard - Joe wants to win.  Problem is he only gets one vote, and the rest of the family really doesn't care about on-field performance much.

[In My La Z boy]

14 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

From everything I've heard - Joe wants to win.  Problem is he only gets one vote, and the rest of the family really doesn't care about on-field performance much.

What a mess. My business landlord runs a major shopping center. He is the youngest son with 6 older siblings. The siblings only care about getting their money, while this landlord cares about running a good center. He's thinking about selling and cannot take the family pressure always for more money out of the tenants. Family business is this way when most of the family members are outside the business and are reliant upon the business to fund their lifestyle. This is where we're at.

[Major League Ready]

42 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Wish I had more faith in our player development department. I'd agree if I thought we could turn these kids into stars. Big fail on position players in the Falvey era, and now with the kind of year Lewis, Wallner and Larnach have had - those 3 were each 1st round draft picks, and along with Lee, who looks like a bench player, what have we got with our last 5 or 6 #1 picks? Kirilloff & Rooker were also #1's. Falvey seems good w/Pitchers and awful with position players on drafting & developing.

I understand their track record with position players is pretty bad but what's the alternative.  They need to replace 5 of the 8 position players.  The only players that wouldn't need to be replaced are Buxton, Jeffers, and Keaschall and you need 4-5 RPs.  You can't come remotely close to putting a dent in those needs through free agency.  The alternative is to trade away pretty much every good prospect they have and bet on making a run in 2026 and hoping there is a meaningful 2027.  Post 2027 you would be assuring a very long rebuild where they would be horrible.  

They have the 2B of the future in Keaschall.  With the preface that no prospect is a lock, There is a pretty good chance Culpepper and Jenkins are here by July 1, 2026.  Wallner is decent so he stays until one of Rodriguez/GG/Rosario or Fedko push him to the bench or out all together.  We should not give up on Lewis just yet.  At least Lewis has become a good defender.  Add to this list whatever they get for Ryan/Ober/Lopez and what should be a top 5 pick next year.  

By 2027 they should field a respectable team and the potential to sustain a run of several years in the playoffs by 2028.  Granted, that's an optimistic view but it does not change the odds that staying the course on this rebuild provides the best probability of success.

[tony&rodney]

At this point, the payroll is not important. The team needs position players who can be counted on in 2-3 years and forward. The pitching side can always be improved but looks better. Of course, trading the established starters weakens the pitching but it is the only path towards acquiring talent. 

The dark side of the transactions and roster building is that it is impossible to know if any team is willing to trade a top prospect (much less more) for Ryan and whether the Twins can return anything worthwhile for their other tradable players (Lopez, Ober, Jeffers, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner). Another concern is whether the Twins front office can identify talented players.

The franchise is a mess and the ownership problem is just the tip of the iceberg.