Working Through Ambiguity: Evaluating the Louis Varland Trade

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

What a mess. It’s been a few days since the Twins decided to commit ritualistic sacrifice on their entire bullpen. I’m not sure that I have any more clarity on how to square that as a whole. What has gnawed at me since Thursday is a lack of coherence between some of the trades made. A lack of coherence on which light is starting to be shed.

If the Twins had stopped trading players away prior to the Griffin Jax and Louie Varland deals, there’s a good chance fans view the deadline in a different light. In that reality, you have two high-leverage arms around which to build your future bullpen. It’s also a more explicit statement of intent around competing in 2026, one that makes acquiring Taj Bradley and Alan Roden more palatable.

That’s not what the Twins did, though. They traded Griffin Jax to Tampa Bay for Taj Bradley in a puzzling one-for-one swap, adding to their stable of almost-very-good young MLB starting pitchers. Varland was flipped to the Blue Jays in a stunner for outfielder Alan Roden and left-handed pitching prospect Kendry Rojas.

This is a trade of tensions for me. For some, trading a hometown kid made good, under team control until 2030 hurt. For others, trading a former 15th round pick who came to the organization throwing 90 mph and left touching 100 mph was the source of the regret. Both of those feelings resonate with me on some level. I also think the Twins got good value.

The front office has been criticized for not being cold and calculating enough during their tenure. Whether that was sticking with veteran players when younger ones deserved more playing time, or not catalyzing even moderate turnover of a stagnant hitting core. That’s why this trade felt tough. We went from no change, to all the change.

I believe bullpen arms are volatile and expendable. I believe you should trade them at peak value. I don’t believe bullpen arms are expendable to the point you should trade them all at once. Even today, we are learning that Griffin Jax requested a trade. I’m guessing more revelations are afoot. This won’t be a defense of the organization's approach at the trade deadline. Rather, a simple appraisal of the value that Varland returned.

Let’s start with Kendry Rojas, who will make his debut in the Twins organization starting for the Saints on Thursday. Rojas signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in 2020 for $215,000, and has enjoyed a convergence of improving stuff and excellent results at each stop on his minor league tour to date.

22-years old and listed at 6’2, 190 pounds, Rojas has a lean frame with some projection left. It’s a clean, repeatable delivery with some moderate crossfire in his stride. Rojas has a longer arm stroke and keeps the ball hidden well behind his head, adding to some deception in his delivery. In 41 2/3 innings of work in Toronto’s system in 2025, he’s managed a 3.46 ERA (2.45 FIP), struck out 37.1% of hitters, walked just 5.4%, and maintained a ground ball rate north of 51%. That’s extremely impressive production.

If we want to crudely compare Rojas with Mick Abel, you’re getting more strikes and consistency with the former, more explosive stuff with the latter. But what of Rojas’ stuff? What might the Twins focus on with him?

It’s currently a sinker/slider dominant profile (yes, the Twins seem to be leaning into that more and more), with a more sparsely used four seam fastball and changeup to round out a four-pitch mix. Both varieties of Rojas’ fastball sit 94 mph but will touch 96 mph. Rojas’ changeup is thrown hard, around 87 mph. It generates some cut and plenty of swing and miss, although there’s likely room for more velocity separation between his fastball and changeup. Finally, the power slider, which averages 87 mph doesn’t have a ton of depth to it and results in ground balls more than swing and miss.

That’s a really strong platform on which to build. I can see the Twins adding a tick or two more to Rojas’ fastball, tweaking the shape of his slider, and even toying with adding an additional pitch prior to 2026. I’d expect him to get plenty of run at Triple-A throughout the remainder of this season. He’s a borderline Top 100 type prospect for me, with the upside of a mid-rotation starter who should get a look in the majors in 2026.

Alan Roden, from a bird's eye view, seems like a weird fit. The Twins now have Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Roden, James Outman, and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. as left-handed hitting outfield options in, or close to the majors. My bet would be that this portion of the acquisition makes more sense after the bookend of offseason roster moves which result in a couple of the aforementioned names no longer being in the organization. 

Roden was Toronto’s third round pick in 2022 out of Creighton, and does a lot of things well. In three minor-league seasons in Toronto’s system, he’s managed a wRC+ of 151 (2023), 138 (2024), and 150 (2025). In 125 games between AA and AAA in 2024, he walked 12.1% of the time and struck out just 14.2% with a .388 wOBA. He gets on base, and he can hit. 

There are supplementary tools here too. Roden has a good arm (86th percentile arm strength) and is likely around an average defender (which makes him better than both Wallner and Larnach). There’s also above average speed (66th percentile). While you’re not getting slug, you’re getting a little bit of everything else. If Roden is a productive major league starter, there’s plenty of value there.

This value is, of course, dependent on the Twins being right. I think anyone can be forgiven for not feeling confident about that right now. While the Varland trade was a shocker given the context, the return of an everyday player and a back end starter is the type of value I expected to recoup in other deadline deals (Brock Stewart cough). For me, it’s a trade where I can see the logic in the value, if not the logic in the timing.

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[TwinsDr2021]

The problem with Roden is he is just another "prospect" on the wrong side of age 25, and has done less than either Larnach or Wallner had done as the same age. He might end up being a better player than both, but what is his real upside? Kepler? Is this the kind of player the Twins need going forward? Sure, If ends up the worst MLB player of the Twins current prospects. (Keashall, Lee, Lewis, Jenkins, Culpepper, Erod), if he ends up in the middle of that pack, the Twins will find them in the same position they have been offensively. (Which isn't great) 

IMO, Roden and Outman do nothing to make this team better going forward.

Rojas turns 23 over the winter (which is good) , but has never pitched more than 84 innings, that was in A ball and wasn't anything great. Last year pitched 62.2 innings and that was a bit better, this year has pitched 41.2 innings, his strike outs are up but the overall results again aren't great. He looks like a relief pitcher to me or another mid 20's starter trying to figure it out, like a list of 6 or 7 other pitchers. 

(I hope I am wrong on both, but this has been how most of the Twins prospects have gone)

[Danchat]

I just don't get the Roden part of the deal. We've spent so much time trying to develop Larnach into something and now you trade for a little bit younger version of him... lefty corner outfielder who isn't a plus defender having a rocky debut in the league, and having an issue with power this season. I really wonder about Falvey's talent evaluators especially when it comes to hitters.

I'm a lot higher on Rojas, not sure if he can be a starter but if made into a one-inning reliever I could see him being a quality high leverage arm. I would bet heavily on him providing more value than Roden.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I just don't get the Roden part of the deal. We've spent so much time trying to develop Larnach into something and now you trade for a little bit younger version of him... lefty corner outfielder who isn't a plus defender having a rocky debut in the league, and having an issue with power this season. I really wonder about Falvey's talent evaluators especially when it comes to hitters.

I'm a lot higher on Rojas, not sure if he can be a starter but if made into a one-inning reliever I could see him being a quality high leverage arm. I would bet heavily on him providing more value than Roden.

Larnach to me is the one guy who I am surprised wasn't traded at the deadline, especially when comparing to them needing to move Stewart and Varland. 

Larnach, I would imagine, gets moved to a team this offseason for a reliever option. Maybe Toronto would listen on Louie Varland? :) 

[EGFTShaw]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Larnach to me is the one guy who I am surprised wasn't traded at the deadline, especially when comparing to them needing to move Stewart and Varland. 

Larnach, I would imagine, gets moved to a team this offseason for a reliever option. Maybe Toronto would listen on Louie Varland? :) 

That would be apropos. ;)

[EGFTShaw]

Twins have shown to be able to develop pitchers.

So, the pitchers with potential I can see a future.

With hitters, I don't feel the same.

Rooker wasn't developed by the Twins but look at him now.

[AceWrigley]

In his pursuit of immortality, Alan Roden leaves an indelible face print on the outfield wall at Citizens Bank Park.

 

[bunsen82]

The trade of Varland, wasn't worth the return.  Its not to say they got actually a very good return.  Roden has been rough early on,  but he has shown flashes of being a very good useable/tradeable piece, particularly in spring training.  I am really hoping he gets comfortable at the MLB level in the next 2 months.   Kendry Rojas stuff looks very good.   Mid to back end of the rotation is definitely possible.   

This trade cost much more than just Varland.  With Varland,  fans still had a hope we could figure this out in the next couple years.  Varland was the local kid who had made good.   If Varland were to become the closer,  with Topa and Sands, that is something you could build around,  even this fall. If you had not traded Stewart, who we dumped for peanuts I think you could figure out enough games to be competitive.  

The Duran trade I understand,  the Jax trade was requested,  Coloumbe was expected.  I continue to come to 1 conclusion,  trading Stewart for peanuts and Varland were much more impactful.   You eliminated this teams chance of even being competitive.   I will gladly call it what it is, tanking.  The Twins don't want the #10 pick in the draft,  they want a top 3 pick in the draft.  Whether it gives you better prospects,  or more money to spread out to more quality prospects it gives you a better chance at finding the extremely high end prospects that are difference makers.  I know the 2026 draft is know as being good,  most comparable to 2023.  However will it have the high end prospects of a Skenes, Crews, Clark, Langford and Jenkins?  That is difficult to know.  The other aspect to understand is due to the rule on lottery picks,  2 teams with likely high percentages in the draft will be eliminated,  currently Colorado and Washington.   If they remain in the bottom 3 teams that is 33% chances being eliminated.   Currently the White Sox hold the other top 3 spot,  and their current draft odds are 26% of #1 pick and 70% chance of top 3 pick.  The odds still aren't great,  but if you do tank this year, your odds of getting a top 3 pick is drastically better than most years.  

So the return on Stewart and Varland is more than just the players that we received.  The cost was also much more than just trading those players.  You ripped out an emotional connection many fans had to this team,  and you created a version of this team for the next 2 months that is nearly unwatchable.  More than anything that is the frustration many have,  that they think the Pohlads are cheapskating their way out the door.  I will say this is lot of heat the Pohlads are taking,  if this was the direction the new owners wanted, and I don't think there is any way you don't make these trades without the new owners blessing.   Or the other option is,  there is no new owners on the horizon.  That option is even worse.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The trade of Varland, wasn't worth the return.  Its not to say they got actually a very good return.  Roden has been rough early on,  but he has shown flashes of being a very good useable/tradeable piece, particularly in spring training.  I am really hoping he gets comfortable at the MLB level in the next 2 months.   Kendry Rojas stuff looks very good.   Mid to back end of the rotation is definitely possible.   

This trade cost much more than just Varland.  With Varland,  fans still had a hope we could figure this out in the next couple years.  Varland was the local kid who had made good.   If Varland were to become the closer,  with Topa and Sands, that is something you could build around,  even this fall. If you had not traded Stewart, who we dumped for peanuts I think you could figure out enough games to be competitive.  

The Duran trade I understand,  the Jax trade was requested,  Coloumbe was expected.  I continue to come to 1 conclusion,  trading Stewart for peanuts and Varland were much more impactful.   You eliminated this teams chance of even being competitive.   I will gladly call it what it is, tanking.  The Twins don't want the #10 pick in the draft,  they want a top 3 pick in the draft.  Whether it gives you better prospects,  or more money to spread out to more quality prospects it gives you a better chance at finding the extremely high end prospects that are difference makers.  I know the 2026 draft is know as being good,  most comparable to 2023.  However will it have the high end prospects of a Skenes, Crews, Clark, Langford and Jenkins?  That is difficult to know.  

So the return on Stewart and Varland is more than just the players that we received.  The cost was also much more than just trading those players.  You ripped out an emotional connection many fans had to this team,  and you created a version of this team for the next 2 months that is nearly unwatchable.  More than anything that is the frustration many have,  that they think the Pohlads are cheapskating their way out the door.  I will say this is lot of heat the Pohlads are taking,  if this was the direction the new owners wanted, and I don't think there is any way you don't make these trades without the new owners blessing.   Or the other option is,  there is no new owners on the horizon.  That option is even worse.  

The draft is supposed to be a VERY strong one in 2026 fwiw. Right @Jamie Cameron?

Not that that helps today, just saying.

[RaoulDuke]

It was certainly a shock and a kick in the nuts for the fans and Varland, and is amplified by it being the last second final move after selling the other 9 guys.

If you remove the emotion of it, its not a bad trade.

5 years of a 7th/ 8th inning guy for 6 years of a promising lefty starter prospect and 6 years of a bat that has played well at AAA.  Obviously the prospects have way more risk tied into them but the ceiling on the return is very high.

[Galen]

I did not like the Varland trade, but I  think I would enjoy watching this lineup next year:

3b Lewis

SS Lee

2b Keachall

1b Clemens?

Lf Walker Jenkins

Cf Buxton 

Rf Wallner

DH  Larnach, Rodriguez 

Couldn't be any worse than this year.

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, Galen said:

I did not like the Varland trade, but I  think I would enjoy watching this lineup next year:

3b Lewis

SS Lee

2b Keachall

1b Clemens?

Lf Walker Jenkins

Cf Buxton 

Rf Wallner

DH  Larnach, Rodriguez 

Couldn't be any worse than this year.

So swapping France for Clemens, and Jenkins for Bader, Lee for CC is going to be better? I agree I would rather watch this team, it does seem very left handed heavy, but yes, this lineup could be worse. (it also has 4 players that have a injury history, Buxton, Lewis, Lewis and Erod)

[jmlease1]

Roden has shown me nothing to suggest that he should be looked at as anything other than a throw-in. He's 25 and has looked dreadful at the plate in MLB, completely overmatched. Great, he's hit very well in AAA, but we've been hearing quite a bit that the gap between AAA and MLB is very high right now, and we've been seeing in with players like Gasper, who crushes the International League and gets crushed by MLB.

This deal is a big swing on Rojas, and if this front office wasn't already cooked if the team gets sold it's the kind of move that gets people fired because they sold off a reliever who has already shown he can be an impact guy on the back end of a bullpen (which is more important than being a "closer", really) that was cheap with many more season of team control for a pitching prospect with exactly 5 starts above A-ball. Who has never thrown more than 85 innings in a professional season (and seems highly unlikely to pass that this season either)

I hated this move when they made it, and I think I still hate it. Right now, he looks more likely to end up as a reliever in MLB to me, so if we gave up a known MLB relief quantity for a down the road maybe reliever...UGH. I don't care about the hometown boy bit; we overrate that kind of extra credit; it's not like it was going to draw substantially more people to the ballpark. A cute story and I'm happy for it, but it doesn't make Varland untradeable. What should have made him untradeable was this kind of return for someone who filled a serious need and was cheap as hell and going to be ours for many more seasons.

I hope I'm very wrong on Rojas. I hope he was undervalued and will be hitting top prospect rankings and everyone can sell me on him being a front of the rotation guy. But right now, he's a suspect. Yes, there's real upside, but to me he looks like an A-ball lottery ticket, not the kind of return you should get for a player like Varland, who has already been very damn good as a reliever this season. Someone should have said no for the Twins.

[Doctor Gast]

You can't always take trades at face value. With that in mind, Varland shouldn't have been up for sale #1, he's a hometown boy, whose aspirations are to play for his home team, he didn't want to be traded & easy to extend if need be. #2 he has proven himself as a high-leverage RP, #3 He has had many years of availability, #4 a foundation of the next BP. #5 He's more valuable to us as a closer & increases his value period.

If you are really into the Twins' way of gaining prospects & the prospects they pick up, it's easy to get excited about their potential. But I'd rather have a proven MLB player who is committed to the Twins for many years in their system. Trading Varland was a big mistake.

[shimrod]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Larnach to me is the one guy who I am surprised wasn't traded at the deadline

What contender is improved by trading for Larnach? Poor defense, spotty offense, total slug on the base paths. There's no market at the deadline. Maybe they can swap him in the offseason for someone else's underperforming player at a position of less depth.

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, shimrod said:

What contender is improved by trading for Larnach? Poor defense, spotty offense, total slug on the base paths. There's no market at the deadline. Maybe they can swap him in the offseason for someone else's underperforming player at a position of less depth.

This year Larnach has hit 259/337/440 for a .778 ops against righties. 

I'm not saying he is a budding star or a building block. But Ty France got moved didn't he? I'd have to think a team would have given SOMETHING to have a hitter on their bench who could hit righties occasionally. That said, Houston went out and got Jesus Sanchez from Miami, so maybe there wasn't a ton of options out there.

Probably more options for a change of scenery this offseason if that's the case.

[Nshore]

Roden has as many holes in his  swing as Wallner and Larnach.  Swiss cheese.  Hope the pitcher works out.

[AceWrigley]

Jorge Alcala designated by the Red Sox today.

[LA Vikes Fan]

53 minutes ago, RaoulDuke said:

It was certainly a shock and a kick in the nuts for the fans and Varland, and is amplified by it being the last second final move after selling the other 9 guys.

If you remove the emotion of it, its not a bad trade.

5 years of a 7th/ 8th inning guy for 6 years of a promising lefty starter prospect and 6 years of a bat that has played well at AAA.  Obviously the prospects have way more risk tied into them but the ceiling on the return is very high.

I think this accurately assess the baseball merit of the trade. You have to add in the loss of the back end of the bullpen to the mix. It doesn't really matter for 2025 since this season is blown any way, but not having Varland as the potential closer for next year is a real loss. I still think the trade makes sense on the baseball merits, but it's a realtively close call. It's probably a risk worth taking if you assume as I do, that the current core was simply incapable of being competitive in the short term.

Having said that, there is more at stake. I'm seeing a lot of comments that are more emotional than baseball related, bemoaning the loss of the local kid who made good and whose family was coming to the games. I think that's a fair issue; Twins are a consumer facing entertainment business and they need to generate emotional attachment. It looks like Varland did that for a lot of people. That's a real asset and I don't understand why the Twins either didn't recognize that asset or decided it didn't have sufficient value to stop the trade. I don't think the trade is so one-sided in the Twins' direction that it's a "must do" regardless of loss of the local favorite.

In sum, I didn't understand the trade when it was made. I much better understand the trade now from a baseball perspective but still don't understand it from a fan engagement perspective. This is simply a trade I would not have made.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 minute ago, AceWrigley said:

Jorge Alcala designated by the Red Sox today.

Not a huge surprise. They've discovered what we discovered. Some days Alcala is great, some days he is the opposite of great and you never know what you're going to get.

Having said that, I say we make the waiver claim and get him back. Let's put them in the back end of the bullpen for the rest of this year. He's certainly better than some of the guys we have.

[AceWrigley]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Not a huge surprise. They've discovered what we discovered. Some days Alcala is great, some days he is the opposite of great and you never know what you're going to get.

Having said that, I say we make the waiver claim and get him back. Let's put them in the back end of the bullpen for the rest of this year. He's certainly better than some of the guys we have.

If you could mitigate "Alcala Disaster Days" he could be a good bullpen piece.

[TwinsDr2021]

35 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Not a huge surprise. They've discovered what we discovered. Some days Alcala is great, some days he is the opposite of great and you never know what you're going to get.

Having said that, I say we make the waiver claim and get him back. Let's put them in the back end of the bullpen for the rest of this year. He's certainly better than some of the guys we have.

Or he helps the Twins get a higher pick, win/win

[Rod Carews Birthday]

42 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Not a huge surprise. They've discovered what we discovered. Some days Alcala is great, some days he is the opposite of great and you never know what you're going to get.

Having said that, I say we make the waiver claim and get him back. Let's put them in the back end of the bullpen for the rest of this year. He's certainly better than some of the guys we have.

I think that I'm with you.  Why not experiment with him?  You know he has upside and if he can cure his "yips" he could be an excellent reliever.  It's not like he's displacing someone with a future right now in the bullpen.  With Alcala there is at least a chance. . . 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Roden has shown me nothing to suggest that he should be looked at as anything other than a throw-in. He's 25 and has looked dreadful at the plate in MLB, completely overmatched. Great, he's hit very well in AAA, but we've been hearing quite a bit that the gap between AAA and MLB is very high right now, and we've been seeing in with players like Gasper, who crushes the International League and gets crushed by MLB.

This deal is a big swing on Rojas, and if this front office wasn't already cooked if the team gets sold it's the kind of move that gets people fired because they sold off a reliever who has already shown he can be an impact guy on the back end of a bullpen (which is more important than being a "closer", really) that was cheap with many more season of team control for a pitching prospect with exactly 5 starts above A-ball. Who has never thrown more than 85 innings in a professional season (and seems highly unlikely to pass that this season either)

I hated this move when they made it, and I think I still hate it. Right now, he looks more likely to end up as a reliever in MLB to me, so if we gave up a known MLB relief quantity for a down the road maybe reliever...UGH. I don't care about the hometown boy bit; we overrate that kind of extra credit; it's not like it was going to draw substantially more people to the ballpark. A cute story and I'm happy for it, but it doesn't make Varland untradeable. What should have made him untradeable was this kind of return for someone who filled a serious need and was cheap as hell and going to be ours for many more seasons.

I hope I'm very wrong on Rojas. I hope he was undervalued and will be hitting top prospect rankings and everyone can sell me on him being a front of the rotation guy. But right now, he's a suspect. Yes, there's real upside, but to me he looks like an A-ball lottery ticket, not the kind of return you should get for a player like Varland, who has already been very damn good as a reliever this season. Someone should have said no for the Twins.

I think this pretty much sums up where I am at.  When you have a valuable asset both in terms of skill and payroll fit you should be getting back things you really need not just some guys with potential.  You are giving up a known asset you should make sure you mitigate the risk involved in trading that away.

Getting a guy who might be a lessor version of Larnach and Wallner just doesn't make sense.  Not to mention he doesn't look like he belongs at the MLB level at the plate anyway.  Why take on all that risk when the player doesn't appear to project as a difference maker. especially when your top two prospect are left handed outfielder that appear to be difference makers.

I get the attraction to Rojas as he is a lefty that is performing well with great traits, but the Twins seem to be blind when it comes to injured\injury prone arms.  They went for Paddack when other teams wouldn't.  They went for Mahle when no one else was that interested.  They got burned both times.  It's like they don't factor arm risk into any calculations they make.  I don't get it.

Look I don't know a ton about Rojas, but he has to the reason they pulled the trigger.  A lefty starter is something this team has just never developed.  They could really use one.  I hope their evals' are spot on, but I gotta say I don't trust them or the scouts to get this right.  Especially given the past history.

They gave up a difference maker. They better get one back.

[Rosterman]

It was a player dump for France. Twins took Roden who is still as cheap, and has some upside. I ahd fully expected that Larnach was going to be traded before the end of the deadline. Probably another failed attempt at a trade.

Varland is the St. Paul kid who failed as a starter and could come back as a bullpen arm and futrue closer, shades of Glen Perkins. Man, talk about using him a lot this season. But Rojas, even if he just becomes a relief ace, was a fair exchange.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Larnach to me is the one guy who I am surprised wasn't traded at the deadline, especially when comparing to them needing to move Stewart and Varland. 

Larnach, I would imagine, gets moved to a team this offseason for a reliever option. Maybe Toronto would listen on Louie Varland? :) 

Larnach for a reliever is a likely outcome for a trade. The Louis would be someone in the lower levels with a high ceiling or someone in the higher minors with a lower ceiling. 

[jorgenswest]

Rojas is a good get. A lefty that is in AAA at 22 with success at a young age. He alone would be worth Varland who at 27 is having a break out season as a reliever. Varland has cut home runs significantly this year. The home run rates need a pretty large sample size. The extraordinarily low home run rates are the reason his xFIP and xERA are both much higher than his actual. Is the 2.02 ERA Varland that the Twins sent to the Blue Jays his real skill or is it random variation due to the small sample of any reliever? Reliever skill isn’t anymore volatile than players at other positions but the numbers make it look that way since their season sample is so small. Topa’s ERA looked like his skill had really improved in his one break out season. It didn’t. His xFIP is actually slightly better than his 2023 season. That ErA was a mirage due to the sample size of a reliever. Time will tell about Varland.

As for Roden I think the Blue Jays deadline roster crunch made him soon to be DFA’d and a throw in. The Twins may DFA him this winter if he doesn’t turn it around. It is still a reasonable trade even if Roden is let go. It is hard to get a young and successful lefty starter this close to the majors.

[cjm0926]

I don't think it is crazy to say at all that Louis Varland's value would possibly have been higher in the future. A year or two down the road if Varland kept improving like he already was showing he had been, with that nasty of stuff you could have been talking about a borderline Duran-esque return. With that being said, there are plenty of young players who show promise and eventually fade or regress. All in all, not a fan of the trade at all, but will cheer for Roden and Rojas' success, and will cheer extra hard for the sale of the team and the replacement of the front office and manager.

[USAFChief]

11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Rojas is a good get. A lefty that is in AAA at 22 with success at a young age. He alone would be worth Varland who at 27 is having a break out season as a reliever. Varland has cut home runs significantly this year. The home run rates need a pretty large sample size. The extraordinarily low home run rates are the reason his xFIP and xERA are both much higher than his actual. Is the 2.02 ERA Varland that the Twins sent to the Blue Jays his real skill or is it random variation due to the small sample of any reliever? Reliever skill isn’t anymore volatile than players at other positions but the numbers make it look that way since their season sample is so small. Topa’s ERA looked like his skill had really improved in his one break out season. It didn’t. His xFIP is actually slightly better than his 2023 season. That ErA was a mirage due to the sample size of a reliever. Time will tell about Varland.

As for Roden I think the Blue Jays deadline roster crunch made him soon to be DFA’d and a throw in. The Twins may DFA him this winter if he doesn’t turn it around. It is still a reasonable trade even if Roden is let go. It is hard to get a young and successful lefty starter this close to the majors.

Explain to me how Rojas is a "successful LH starter."

He's thrown 41.2 innings this season. Never more than 84 in any season. Five starts above A ball one at AAA.

[Sjoski]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

He's certainly better than some of the guys we have.

Better than most isn’t even an overstatement. 

Maybe knowing he not the worst guy in the pen does something to his psyche