This Joe Ryan Trade With Chicago Cubs Could Dramatically Alter Short- and Long-Term Outlook of Both Organizations

[Cody Schoenmann]

Coming out of the All-Star break, your 2025 Minnesota Twins continue to stumble, evidenced by the club losing three of its first four games and sinking to a mere 13.6% chance of earning an AL Wild Card spot, according to FanGraphs. With the 2025 season all but lost, team decision-makers are seemingly becoming more open to the idea of selling come next week's trade deadline, illustrated by MLB insider Jon Heyman below:

The front office "seriously listening" to offers on veterans with expiring contracts in Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, and Willi Castro is an unsurprising development. Yet, Heyman, noting that the club "will listen" to offers on star closer Jhoan Durán and All-Star starting pitcher Joe Ryan, signals a noteworthy shift in how President of Business and Baseball Operations Derek Falvey and General Manager Jeremy Zoll appear to perceive Minnesota's short- and medium-term ability to compete in the AL meaningfully.

Although taking this approach to the trade deadline can be seen as an admission of failure or inadequacy, it is nevertheless the correct approach for the front office to take. Minnesota's core is critically flawed, and significant changes are needed. That being the case, club decision-makers would be wise to trade one or multiple of their core pieces, with Ryan being the apple of pursuing teams' eyes.

Earning the first All-Star nod in his career, Ryan has blossomed into an ace with Minnesota this season, generating a 2.63 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, and 132-to-32 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 1/3 innings pitched. The 29-year-old achieved his career-best first half performance by sporting the most effective four-seam fastball in baseball, fortifying his breaking and offspeed pitches, and significantly decreasing his proclivity to allow home runs, evidenced by him sporting a career-best 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched (HR/9).

Possessing team control for two-and-a-half more seasons at a club-friendly rate, Ryan has become an increasingly sought-after trade deadline target. Given Heyman's report, he is more available than previously thought. Ryan has been credibly linked to multiple teams, including the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, among others. However, no organization makes more sense as a destination for Ryan than the Chicago Cubs.

Sitting at 59-41, Chicago trails the Milwaukee Brewers by one game in the NL Central, while firmly sitting atop the NL Wild Card standings. Possessing a 94.1% chance of making the postseason and a 6.3% chance of winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs, the Cubs are one of the NL's few genuine contenders. Much of Chicago's success has been driven by its formidable offense, which ranks first in team Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) and second in team wRC+, only behind the New York Yankees.

Yet, the primary reason Chicago lags behind Milwaukee and fellow NL contenders in the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and the aforementioned Mets is due to their subpar starting rotation. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs have the eighth-worst starting rotation, according to fWAR, while ranking 12th in team ERA and 22nd in team FIP. Veteran left-handed starters Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd function as viable top-of-the-rotation arms. Yet, one needs to undergo a significant amount of mental gymnastics to manufacture any semblance of confidence in either of these veterans starting Game 1 of a playoff series.

That being the case, the club would be wise to acquire Ryan. Again, Minnesota would need to be blown away by an offer to justify parting ways with their beloved ace. Despite possessing a mid-tier farm system, Chicago has the top-end prospects necessary to appease Minnesota's demands, resulting in the proposed mock trade below:

• Chicago receives: right-handed starting pitcher Joe Ryan
• Minnesota receives: catching/first base prospect Moisés Ballesteros, right-handed pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins

Ranked as Chicago's top prospect, according to North Side Baseball, Ballesteros would headline Chicago's return package to Minnesota. Despite struggling in 18 plate appearances with the Cubs earlier this season, the left-handed hitting prospect has excelled in Triple-A Iowa this season, hitting .339/.397/.500 with 24 doubles, eight home runs, and a 130 wRC+ over 348 plate appearances.

While excelling at the plate at Triple-A, the 21-year-old has registered 426 1/3 innings at catcher, 19 innings at first base, and 24 games started at designated hitter with Iowa this season. Given that Minnesota will be thin at catcher and first base next season, with the impending departures of Christian Vázquez and Ty France, the Cubs' top prospect could receive ample opportunity with Minnesota  in 2026.

Possessing a near-elite max exit velocity, strikeout rate, and zone swing rate with Iowa, Ballesteros possesses the plate discipline and hard-hit tool necessary to hit at an above-average rate at the major league level. As mentioned earlier, he struggled in the majors earlier this season, generating a 41 wRC+ over 18 plate appearances. Yet, given his success at Triple-A this season and encouraging underlying metrics, there is reason to believe the 21-year-old will blossom into an above-average major league hitter in the near future.

Ballesteros would be an exceptionally valuable acquisition for Minnesota, especially given the aforementioned uncertainty surrounding the club's short- and medium-term future at his two primary positions, catcher and first base. There are concerns over whether "Big Mo" will be able to stay at catcher long-term. Still, his bat should play at the major league level, and even if he's restricted to first base and designated hitter, Minnesota would considerably benefit from obtaining a young, controllable bat, something the current iteration of the club lacks.

Drafted 68th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft out of the University of Arkansas, Wiggins has quickly moved through Chicago's minor league system, progressing from starting last season with the Cubs' complex league team to earning a promotion to Double-A Knoxville this May. The hard-tossing righty has excelled in Knoxville, generating a 2.25 ERA, 2.11 FIP, and a 48-to-15 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 1/3 innings pitched.

According to North Side Baseball, Wiggins slots in just four slots below Ballesteros as Chicago's fifth highest-ranked prospect. The 23-year-old's fastball is near-elite, possessing a 70-grade value on FanGraphs' 20-80 grading scale. He complements his exceptional fastball with an above-average slider and changeup. Sporting a three-pitch mix, Wiggins is similar to Ryan in that he relies heavily on his plus fastball while utilizing an array of effective secondary pitches.

Similar to concerns surrounding Ballesteros's viability at catcher, there is some fear that Wiggins could need to transition into a reliever due to control issues. Still, Wiggins possesses frontline stuff and there is reason to believe he could quickly join Minnesota's pitching staff, potentially becoming a primary contributor alongside Ballesteros early next season. Again, Twins decision-makers will justifiably need to be blown away to part ways with Ryan. Yet, receiving one of the best hitting high minors prospects in baseball and a hard-throwing arm who could be ready to join a major league rotation early next season could be enough for Minnesota to send Ryan to Wrigleyville as Chicago attempts to return to the World Series for the first time since 2016.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I like both of those prospects from the Cubs. I think if the Twins are dealing Ryan, this trade is at least one more higher end prospect short on the Cubs side.

[twinfan]

Shoot me if you want but don't trade Ryan. If the Cubs will give us those 2 for Jax or Duran, do it yesterday but not Ryan. Just my opinion.

[JBK]

Trading Joe would destroy what fanbase they have left.

[arby58]

It's not enough for what will likely be a CYA top 10 starting pitcher with 2 additional years of team control. Not even close to enough.

[TNtwins85]

Yeah, doesn’t make any sense. I’ll take Caissie and Alcantara over both. Ballesteros won’t be a catcher long term and Wiggins will be a BP arm at best. Hurts the franchise. Doesn’t change it other than another trade that went wrong for a SP. 

[Dman]

I'd rather have Ryan.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, doesn’t make any sense. I’ll take Caissie and Alcantara over both. Ballesteros won’t be a catcher long term and Wiggins will be a BP arm at best. Hurts the franchise. Doesn’t change it other than another trade that went wrong for a SP. 

I absolutely take Ballesteros over Caissie with his K rate. Don't even need Ballesteros to be a catcher, I just like his bat.

Wiggins, I'd like to see what our pitching development could do with him.

I think the Cubs would have to consider adding someone even as highly thought of as Cade Horton to make this work though. Just Ballesteros and Wiggins would be something that could be a deal for Duran. For Ryan is a lot more expensive.

[JADBP]

3 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, doesn’t make any sense. I’ll take Caissie and Alcantara over both. Ballesteros won’t be a catcher long term and Wiggins will be a BP arm at best. Hurts the franchise. Doesn’t change it other than another trade that went wrong for a SP. 

I agree.  I like Ballesteros and the Twins need a good C prospect, but I fully agree…for Ryan just not enough.  Like all seem to say, it has to be an amazing package and this is not it.

[TNtwins85]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I absolutely take Ballesteros over Caissie with his K rate. Don't even need Ballesteros to be a catcher, I just like his bat.

Wiggins, I'd like to see what our pitching development could do with him.

I think the Cubs would have to consider adding someone even as highly thought of as Cade Horton to make this work though. Just Ballesteros and Wiggins would be something that could be a deal for Duran. For Ryan is a lot more expensive.

I want all 4! For Ryan?!?! Just Ballesteros and Wiggins get an immediate hang up if that’s all they’re offering. I’d rather have Cassie and Alcantara over what is proposed here though. Where does Ballesteros play if you just want his bat?

[TNtwins85]

5 minutes ago, JADBP said:

I agree.  I like Ballesteros and the Twins need a good C prospect, but I fully agree…for Ryan just not enough.  Like all seem to say, it has to be an amazing package and this is not it.

And Ballesteros isn’t even a good catching prospect. He’s probably a DH in 3 years. No thanks

[Parfigliano]

I have zero faith in the present TC MiLB staff developing a top hitting prospect into an above average MLB hitter.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

I want all 4! For Ryan?!?! Just Ballesteros and Wiggins get an immediate hang up if that’s all they’re offering. I’d rather have Cassie and Alcantara over what is proposed here though. Where does Ballesteros play if you just want his bat?

C/1B/DH. #4 hitter. To me he is a kind of bat you find room for.

I struggle with Caissie a bit, because I like his power but I don't at all like his K rate. I'd be open to it if he could be at 1B. Is he truly a better longer term option than what they have for outfield prospects? 

[tony&rodney]

Not enough for Ryan. The Cubs might match up on one or more expiring contracts but not for Ryan. Philadelphia or West Sacramento? Maybe.

[TheLeviathan]

I think we line up really well to trade with the Cubs.  They have quite a bit of AA and AAA talent that fits our next group of players.

However, I want another piece in this trade.  Alcantara, Horton, someone.

[TNtwins85]

15 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

C/1B/DH. #4 hitter. To me he is a kind of bat you find room for.

I struggle with Caissie a bit, because I like his power but I don't at all like his K rate. I'd be open to it if he could be at 1B. Is he truly a better longer term option than what they have for outfield prospects? 

I’d stick Caissie at 1B and just run with it. As late by as he hits .250 with 15-20 bombs that’s better than the last 3 1Bman we’ve trotted out in recent years. Agreed if Ballesteros’ bat is for real then you find a spot. I just don’t think he solves the catcher dilemma that will be.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

You do realize that Ryan is a high end SP1 right now that is still young with 2+ years left of team control. The haul for Ryan better be higher than the proposed deal.

I have said this before: If the Twins trade Ryan, they might as well blow up the entire team and trade anyone with more than 2 years of service. Moving Ryan signifies a complete rebuild vs retool, especially with the upcoming SP (SWR, Festa, Matthews) struggling. I do not see a package strong enough right now to offset his value (unless the Twins are 100% convinced they will not be able to extend him before FA).

[TNtwins85]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Not enough for Ryan. The Cubs might match up on one or more expiring contracts but not for Ryan. Philadelphia or West Sacramento? Maybe.

Agreed! Not even close for Ryan.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You do realize that Ryan is a high end SP1 right now that is still young with 2+ years left of team control. The haul for Ryan better be higher than the proposed deal.

I have said this before: If the Twins trade Ryan, they might as well blow up the entire team and trade anyone with more than 2 years of service. Moving Ryan signifies a complete rebuild vs retool, especially with the upcoming SP (SWR, Festa, Matthews) struggling. I do not see a package strong enough right now to offset his value (unless the Twins are 100% convinced they will not be able to extend him before FA).

Few people want to trade Ryan, but many people are open to a transaction that actually holds hope for improving the team. So folks are guessing, just like those who write the articles. One also must consider that we have no idea how other teams view the players or whether a potential reasonable deal cannot be completed because of cautious GMs/POBOs.

Is there a player you see as a fair trade for Ryan?

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, JBK said:

Trading Joe would destroy what fanbase they have left.

There isn't a viable fanbase left. It's time for a complete overhaul and a championship run later on. Ryan's stock will never be higher, and he can do nothing to help 2026 that he hasn't already done this year.

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

These trade deadline articles never fail to bring a smile to my face year after year.  Every time the Twins give up their best player and do not ever remotely get enough in return,  This team can't ever develop front line starting pitching but somehow got this much out of Joe Ryan.  So clearly move him and bring in a young hitter to work with these bunch of clowns who constantly have top hitting prospects immediately level off and never seem to improve.  Ryan Jeffers, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, Eduard Julien, Jose Miranda - etc etc etc.  Guys who rake with minor league managers and coaches and then regress in record time once they meet Rocco and the boys.  

Not remotely enough of a return - and even if it was, I wouldn't trust the Twins major league guys to help develop any of them.  But I know this article was for clickbait so I won't give you too much grief because it did generate a lot of comments.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

These trade deadline articles never fail to bring a smile to my face year after year.  Every time the Twins give up their best player and do not ever remotely get enough in return,  This team can't ever develop front line starting pitching but somehow got this much out of Joe Ryan.  So clearly move him and bring in a young hitter to work with these bunch of clowns who constantly have top hitting prospects immediately level off and never seem to improve.  Ryan Jeffers, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, Eduard Julien, Jose Miranda - etc etc etc.  Guys who rake with minor league managers and coaches and then regress in record time once they meet Rocco and the boys.  

Not remotely enough of a return - and even if it was, I wouldn't trust the Twins major league guys to help develop any of them.  But I know this article was for clickbait so I won't give you too much grief because it did generate a lot of comments.

Good job of explaining your byline (TD name).

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think we line up really well to trade with the Cubs.  They have quite a bit of AA and AAA talent that fits our next group of players.

However, I want another piece in this trade.  Alcantara, Horton, someone.

Agreed. That's not close to what Seattle paid for what's his name a free years ago. Need at least one more highly rated prospect.

I have zero interest in trading Ryan.....

[Doctor Gast]

I wouldn't even consider trading Ryan because he holds an important place in our rotation. But when he was asked what he felt about the trade deadline? His answer was "It's exciting". To many players, they feel anxiety about being traded, but not Ryan. To me, that says he doesn't care about staying or even is excited about being traded. So if someone blows my socks off with young MLB-ready impact players that fill our needs at catcher, 2 SPs who can help us now & the future, I'll bite. So no redundant players or prospects. Ballestero & Wiggins don't move the needle for me. Ballestero won't stick at catcher. Cubs don't come close to have the players to make this deal go down. I'd pull a trade with PHI for Painter & Lazardo, That'd fill our Ryan void & that'd make PHI hands down the best rotation. They also have BP & cOF needs that Twins could help.

[TheLeviathan]

46 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You do realize that Ryan is a high end SP1 right now that is still young with 2+ years left of team control. The haul for Ryan better be higher than the proposed deal.

I have said this before: If the Twins trade Ryan, they might as well blow up the entire team and trade anyone with more than 2 years of service. Moving Ryan signifies a complete rebuild vs retool, especially with the upcoming SP (SWR, Festa, Matthews) struggling. I do not see a package strong enough right now to offset his value (unless the Twins are 100% convinced they will not be able to extend him before FA).

That last sentence is the key.  I'd prefer we hand him a nice contract extension.  But will we?

And if we won't.....well then doesn't this option have to at least be considered?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

That last sentence is the key.  I'd prefer we hand him a nice contract extension.  But will we?

And if we won't.....well then doesn't this option have to at least be considered?

That's the key. If he won't sign here, and you can get three top prospects, it's hard to say no .  .....

[TheLeviathan]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. That's not close to what Seattle paid for what's his name a free years ago. Need at least one more highly rated prospect.

I have zero interest in trading Ryan.....

Same, I would rather extend Ryan.

But we can't operate like we don't have penny-pinching misers in the ownership suite.  If he's not going to be extended, then 2028 is an apocalypse for our pitching staff.  Waiting for it to implode, knowing you won't have the money to alter that outcome, would be foolish.

So for all those fans unlike Mike and I (and others)....you're going to have to come to grips with what is on the horizon in 2028 and the realistic odds of retaining any of those five critical pitchers.  Some will have to be traded at some point.  That doesn't mean it has to be Ryan, but ruling him out probably isn't wise either.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

“Ryan has blossomed into an ace with Minnesota this season”

And he has 2+ years of control.  

That is exactly the kind of pitcher we have been searching for since Johan. Why on earth would we trade him now?  I agree with @Fire Dan Gladden.  If you are going to do that, you may as well blow up the whole team and sell everybody with any value.  If we are not planning to compete in 2026 OR 2027 (or after, because that’s when a bunch of our best players hit free agency), then blow it up.  Otherwise, hang on to Joe Ryan.  He is the single most valuable chip that you have right now — much more valuable than Duran or Jax.  The return would need to be ridiculous.  

 

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

I want all 4! For Ryan?!?! Just Ballesteros and Wiggins get an immediate hang up if that’s all they’re offering. I’d rather have Cassie and Alcantara over what is proposed here though. Where does Ballesteros play if you just want his bat?

I too would hang up immediately.  A bit unintentionally misleading though as Wiggins' K/IP as stated in the article is incorrect.  I think 48k in 36 IP in Knoxville

having said that, just 'no'

[Mike Sixel]

This idea that trading one player means they can't compete for two years just blows my mind.....