A Season-Defining Week Awaits the Twins

The Minnesota Twins are about to return from the All-Star break, and in my eyes, they're set to begin the most important week of their season. They avoided being muscled out of the playoff picture by midseason, but otherwise, nothing has been decided. They've run hot and cold all year, and now find themselves in the mangled middle.

Despite the inconsistency, though, the Twins are still very much in the hunt. They're currently tied with Seattle for the final American League Wild Card spot, and they also sit just three games behind both the White Sox and Guardians in the AL Central. As it happens, Cleveland is the team they'll see four times early next week. Before that, however, Minnesota opens the second half with a three-game series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Chicago has established itself as one of the better teams in the National League, and they look well on their way to a postseason berth. In short, with the seasonal leverage index already cranked up, the Twins have seven games coming up against two playoff-caliber opponents.

That stretch is going to tell us a lot about what this team is made of. More importantly, it could legitimately determine what this roster looks like for the rest of the season. The Twins are still in that awkward position where it's difficult to know exactly how they should approach the trade deadline. They're close enough to the playoff picture that buying makes sense, but they're also inconsistent enough that selling isn't out of the question. The next seven games could go a long way toward answering that question.

Let's say the Twins stumble to a 2-5 showing against the Cubs and Guardians. That would leave them at 50-54. Even in the best-case scenario (assuming, among other things, both of those wins came against Cleveland), they'd still be at least three games behind the Guardians. Depending on how the rest of the Wild Card race develops, they'd probably find themselves slipping further behind there as well. At that point, the front office would have to ask itself some difficult questions.

On the other hand, imagine the Twins stay hot and go 5-2 over the next week. Suddenly, they're 53-51 and right back in the thick of everything. They'd be firmly alive in the Wild Card race and could find themselves right on the heels of the division leaders, or maybe even sitting atop the AL Central. That would completely change the conversation.

Winning is one thing. Winning against high-quality competition is another. If the Twins take care of business against the Cubs and Guardians, what kind of message does that send to the front office? To me, it would be a sign that this team deserves reinforcements, especially if they're able to do it without Byron Buxton in the lineup. If the Twins can beat two playoff-caliber teams while missing their best player, I'd have a hard time sitting on the sidelines at the trade deadline. At that point, I'd be looking for pitching help wherever I could find it.

Whether that's another starting pitcher, bullpen help, or both, the goal should be maximizing this team's chances to win the division—or, at the very least, lock down a Wild Card spot. The opportunity is there, but the opposite is also true. If the Twins lose both series and struggle against quality competition, that may be the clearest sign yet that they simply aren't on the same level as the league's contenders. If that's the case, selling becomes a much more realistic option. Maybe you move some of your veteran pieces. Players like Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, and others could all generate interest from contenders looking to add before the deadline. While none of those players would bring back franchise-altering returns on their own, collectively, they could help Minnesota add future value while opening opportunities for younger players. It's not just about where the Twins stand in the race after seven games. It's about what direction the organization chooses over the next couple of weeks.

Another thing I'll be watching closely is how the Twins decide to structure their starting rotation. With seven games over the next week, there's an opportunity for two starters to throw twice. Ideally, those two would be Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley. Those are your two best starters, and if you're trying to maximize your chances of winning the biggest week of the season, it makes sense to have your best arms on the mound as often as possible.

The complication, of course, is timing. Ryan and Bradley both pitched against the Angels last weekend, with Ryan throwing on Saturday and Bradley following on Sunday. Ryan also made an appearance in Tuesday night's All-Star Game, even if it was only for one inning. That could make it difficult to line everything up exactly the way you'd like. So how do the Twins approach it?

In deference to some of those concerns, they elected to start Bailey Ober to open the second half. Bradley will follow him, and Zebby Matthews gets the ball Sunday. Ryan will, presumably, open the Cleveland series; Bradley is positioned to close it.

The priority right now should be putting your team in the best position to win. They've done that, while also giving Ryan a bit of time to recover from the whirlwind of All-Star Week and an intense between-starts appearance in the cauldron of Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park. No matter how the rotation shakes out, though, one thing feels certain. This next week of baseball is going to tell us a lot about who the 2026 Minnesota Twins really are. And depending on how it unfolds, it could have a major impact on what this team looks like for the rest of the season.