Twins 4, Rays 3: Harrison Bader Brings His Fireworks for a Twins Win!

[Steven Trefz]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Chris Paddack 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (87 pitches, 57 strikes (66%))
Home Runs: Harrison Bader 2 (8, 9)
Top 3 WPA: Bader (.411), Louis Varland (.242), Brooks Lee (.211)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

The Twins limped home from a 2-4 road trip five games under .500, and at risk of becoming "sellers" at this season's trade deadline. The good news? Today marks the start of a nine-game homestand and the Twins are 22-17 at home. The bad news? The Twins have only scored three runs across their last four games, and they were a measely 4-9 at home in June. The good news? It's the 4th of July, and the Twins haven't lost on Independence Day since 2019! The bad news? The Twins haven't caused any fireworks for a long, long time. 

Chris Paddack (3-7, 4.52 ERA) came into today's contest knowing that he had to throw a gem to keep his offensively struggling teammates in the game. Former Twin Zack Littell (7-7, 3.51 ERA) looked to notch his second win of the season off of his old club. The conditions were hot on the field, but could the urgency and importance of the moment light a fire under the Twins as well? Or would their spark continue to fizzle out when it mattered most?

No Early Fireworks
Paddack began the game looking like a man on fire, setting down the first nine Rays that he faced. Unfortunately for the Twins, their current struggles continued against Littell as well. Minnesota managed to get a player on base in each of the first three innings, but they failed to cash in a run in any of the opportunities. Willi Castro singled and stole second base in the bottom of the first inning, which marked his fourth consecutive game with a swiped base. Trevor Larnach struck out, and Carlos Correa lined out to end that threat. Royce Lewis got on with an infield dribbler in the bottom of the second with two outs, and Ty France left him right there.

The Twins' best early chance for fireworks came with two outs in the bottom of the third inning. Castro walked, and because he stayed put at first, Larnach was able to pull a soft grounder through the right side to put runners at the corners. With their big money man Correa up, the Twins felt so poorly about Correa's chances to deliver that they put on a double-steal with the slow-footed Larnach, and he was cut down at second base to provide yet another way to end a scoring threat for the Twins fans to witness in 2025. 

Paddack Doesn't Blow Up, but Bader Does!
After that disappointing series of events on the bases, Paddack kept his no-hitter going until Brandon Lowe snuck a single through to right field with two outs in the top of the fourth. On the very next pitch, Junior Caminero roped a single to left, and suddenly the Twins were under attack and at risk of surrendering the first run of the game. The Sheriff faced off in a duel against the dangerous and All-Star Game bound Jonathan Aranda, and Aranda couldn't lay off the high heat on a full count and Paddack and the Twins breathed a collective sigh of relief.

That sigh lasted until the bottom of the fifth inning, and then Harrison Bader lit the fuse that ignited the Target Field faithful. With one out, Bader took a 90 mph sinker that didn't sink, and sunk it into the second deck in left to put his team ahead 1-0.

Fun While it Lasted, Which Wasn't Long

Paddack entered the top of the sixth inning with 76 pitches, and he was slated to face the top of the Rays lineup. Josh Lowe jumped on a changeup for a single to start the inning. Yandy Diaz came up next and absolutely crushed a slider to the tune of 113 mph exit velocity. The liner scooted all the way to the fence, and since it happened on a 3-2 pitch in which Lowe was running, it plated Lowe, and knotted the game up at one apiece.

With nobody out and Diaz in scoring position, Paddack departed and the hopes of Twins Territory fell on Danny Coulombe. The lefty reliever induced a line out from the other Lowe, Brandon, for the first out. Caminero was less hospitable, however, and he deposited a bloop single to right to score Diaz and to take the lead.

Looking for a Spark...Some Fire...Anything?
Unfortunately, the next round of noise came from the Rays' bats against Brock Stewart in the top of the seventh inning. Ha-Seong Kim singled to lead off the inning, and then stole second to immediately put pressure on Stewart. Chandler Simpson walked to add even more pressure, but luckily, Danny Jansen failed to lay down a bunt, and his infield fly left the runners stranded where they were. So, the Rays decided to move them on their own, sending Kim and Simpson on a double-steal, but Ryan Jeffers was up to the challenge and nailed Kim at third for the second out. The Lowe named Josh came up next, and he immediately ensured that Stewart would see an increased ERA by singling in Simpson with two outs to make it 3-1 Tampa.

Cole Sands eventually got the Twins out of that half of the inning and back up to the plate in the bottom of the seventh. Wallner and France singled to put runners at first and second with one out, but Bader couldn't deliver more fireworks; he struck out to bring up Byron Buxton in a must-have situation. Buxton delivered, dumping a double down the left-field line to plate Wallner and to put the go-ahead run in scoring position. Lefty Garrett Cleavinger came in to get the Rays out of the jam, but he drilled Castro to load the bases. Brooks Lee replaced Larnach for a righty/lefty matchup, and Cleavinger decided to end the drama himself by hitting Lee with a high and inside pitch to tie it up!

Correa was next man up, and he hoped to exercise his bases-loaded demons and to send Target Field into a fireworks frenzy. He struck out, badly.

Varland Deals, and Bader Blasts
The Twins needed their well-rested bullpen to be clutch in this afternoon affair, and Louis Varland was up to the challenge and then some. Varland topped out above 100 mph on his fastballs, and set the Rays down in order in the eighth AND ninth innings to set up someone for a hero moment on Independence Day. Turns out we already saw that hero once today, and Harrison Bader is his name. Kevin Kelly stayed in the game to start the bottom of the ninth, and after escaping a few bad pitches in the eighth, Bader took his first pitch middle-middle sinker deep and over the flowers in left to end the game with one last homerun fireworks display! 

What’s Next?
The Twins look to win the series and keep the good times rolling on Saturday with another afternoon contest. The Twins still need to fill Bailey Ober's shoes, and most likely the next man up for Saturday's contest will be righty prospect Travis Adams. Whether Adams is allowed to start, or will make his MLB debut after an opener is used remains to be seen. The Rays will send righty Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.79 ERA) in hopes of taming the Twins offense. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm CDT.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	TOT
Varland	0	19	12	0	19	50
Stewart	0	0	15	0	23	38
Coulombe	0	0	9	0	11	20
Topa	0	0	0	16	0	16
Jax	0	0	14	0	0	14
Funderburk	0	0	0	13	0	13
Durán	0	0	9	0	0	9
Sands	0	0	0	0	5	5
Wentz	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[Vanimal46]

Bader and Buxton are 2 peas in a pod. Pure hustle/swagger guys and I hope they’re both patrolling the OF in Target Field for a couple more years 

[Parfigliano]

Winner winner TC serves up a morsel of false playoff hope dinner.

[FlyingFinn]

Great game to watch, close with some strategy. I would sure like Correa to start hitting in clutch situations, runners in scoring position with two outs.

[Western SD Fan]

Excited to see Varland go multiple innings in critical relief.  I am curious if the FO is serious about potentially shopping Duran or Jax as you would have expected both of them out there in this game, especially with as little work as they have had this past week.  Don't take this as complaining about Rocco's bullpen usage.  Just an observation.

[Bracky]

34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Bader and Buxton are 2 peas in a pod. Pure hustle/swagger guys and I hope they’re both patrolling the OF in Target Field for a couple more years 

Regardless of if the Twins do any selling or changes for next season, I agree with this. 
 

Bader has hands down been one of the most fun players to have on the team. I would like to see him stay a Twin. Great outfield duo with Buxton and I think both bring great energy.

[DJL44]

I wouldn't say it was a super exciting game to watch but Bader had a great day. I was reminded again that Brock Stewart doesn't hold baserunners.

It's sad, but I think I miss Kody Clemens in the lineup. He's a better 2B than Castro.

[Clare]

"it's a walk off laser to left' . . . Thanks Cory.  What a lovely call!

[NYCTK]

❤️BADER❤️

[HerbieFan]

Lots of talk that the Twins will deal guys who will be FA after the season.  Am I the only one who thinks they might be net positive to deal one of the lefty OFs (Wallner or Larnach) and try to keep Bader?  He is miles better defensively than either one.  Last I checked preventing runs also helps win baseball games.

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

❤️BADER❤️

Keep him. Pick up the mutual option. 

[jmlease1]

A good win. The offense still needs work, but 4 was enough today. Paddack looked very good early, thought he might cruise. But he still did well enough on a hot day.

Tough day for Correa at the plate. not great from Stewart either, was looking like it was his turn in the "player who's been good all year dorks it up" barrel, but the team pulled it out.

Very nice game by Bader, who has wobbled at the plate a little lately. Whose hat/helmet comes off more, his or Castro's?

[Blyleven2011]

Sorry I missed most of the game , had to set up my piro techniques for the evenings festivities  , nice show ...

Nice to read the box score and seen we walked it off ...

Bader game ball , I'd have to agree he has talent and is having a good year playing for the Twins  , should we keep him or trade him ...

I guess we will find out by the end of the month  , every team needs defense and pitching  , Bader has very good defense and hits about average so there should be teams calling about his availability  ....

[knothole61]

Great comeback...just the kind of win that can spark a team.

Let's string some wins!

[Peter]

Walk off win!!! Huge way to start homestand!!! As I said before No selling!!! Let’s build of this and have winning homestand and get over .50O at the break!!!

[Riverbrian]

Once a series... I will post the number of pre-arb players on the 26 man roster from the opposing team. 

This weekend... the Rays have brought 16 pre-arb players with them to Target field. 

With Funderburk replacing Ober on the 26 man roster. The Twins now have 11 pre-arb players. The Rays broke camp with 17... The Twins broke camp with 8. 

The Rays are currently 48-40 on the year. 

The Twins are currently 42-46. 

When I say pre-arb... I'm just counting players with less than 3 years service time.

For example. Royce Lewis (Super-Two) is counted among the 11 Twins pre-arb players even if he is in his first year of arbitration and makes more than the minimum. He counts because I'm really just down and dirty counting those who started 2025 with less then 3.000 of MLB service time. 

It would be 10 with Lewis off the pre-arb list. That would run counter to the Twins development lull point I'm trying to make. The Lower the number, the more dramatic my point.

Regardless, I'm OK with the inclusion of Lewis since this will be a season long youth point that I am making by comparison to our peers and less than 3 year service time is the line I've chosen to signify youth. I chose that line because nearly all of them (not Royce Lewis) are making the major league minimum. 

This is important because if they are not making the minimum, they are chipping away at the available budget. 

 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Keep him. Pick up the mutual option. 

He will decline it. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties.

[Doctor Gast]

There's something seriously wrong with Correa, IMO it's not only mechanics. He's too good to be this bad. Twins have to get to the bottom of it. Hoping it just goes away won't cut it. Good pitching, good baserunning & clutch hitting, we needed it all to pull this one out. Bader was hot! TB has a good team, I'm rooting for them to win the East. Twins have a better roster, but the Rays know how to play ball. That's why they are 48-40 & the Twins are 42-46.

[FlyingFinn]

11 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Am I the only one who thinks they might be net positive to deal one of the lefty OFs (Wallner or Larnach) and try to keep Bader? 

No, I am also saying the Twins should trade Larnach. His trade value is high right now. Though I don't think Bader is going to agree to the mutual option and will want more money elsewhere. Appears to be a great teammate. My reason for trading Larnach is Jenkins is coming in 2026. Rodriguez is also on the 40 man and Gonzalez now has to go on it this winter (though his defense isn't better than Larnach's).

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

Excited to see Varland go multiple innings in critical relief.  I am curious if the FO is serious about potentially shopping Duran or Jax as you would have expected both of them out there in this game, especially with as little work as they have had this past week.  Don't take this as complaining about Rocco's bullpen usage.  Just an observation.

Varland was cruising and don’t want to burn two best guys in a tie game …….gotta score in 8th to see Duran in 9th. Not always the case but Varland threw 2 innings with 19 total pitches. Don’t think that on July 4th their usage has anything to do with trade deadline moves……just trying to set up best opportunity to win the Series by having them available next two days, IMO……..hoping Team can score in 9th after Lou goes out & holds them.

 

[JD-TWINS]

Bader, as unfair as it may sound, has most of 3 months to continue to prove his worth & needs to continue to be a positive contributor. If he hits a lull down the stretch the Team may extend their side of the Option and Bader may accept for continuity and $$ certainty? Twins may also move on to youth if he’s borderline? He seems to have found something at the plate in ‘25 ……. his defense is as was advertised. I didn’t like his signing, and while he’s limited v. RH pitching, I’d like him around in ‘26! He seems to be having fun in Mpls. - need to win a bit more to keep his interest going forward.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Once a series... I will post the number of pre-arb players on the 26 man roster from the opposing team. 

This weekend... the Rays have brought 16 pre-arb players with them to Target field. 

With Funderburk replacing Ober on the 26 man roster. The Twins now have 11 pre-arb players. The Rays broke camp with 17... The Twins broke camp with 8. 

The Rays are currently 48-40 on the year. 

The Twins are currently 42-46. 

When I say pre-arb... I'm just counting players with less than 3 years service time.

For example. Royce Lewis (Super-Two) is counted among the 11 Twins pre-arb players even if he is in his first year of arbitration and makes more than the minimum. He counts because I'm really just down and dirty counting those who started 2025 with less then 3.000 of MLB service time. 

It would be 10 with Lewis off the pre-arb list. That would run counter to the Twins development lull point I'm trying to make. The Lower the number, the more dramatic my point.

Regardless, I'm OK with the inclusion of Lewis since this will be a season long youth point that I am making by comparison to our peers and less than 3 year service time is the line I've chosen to signify youth. I chose that line because nearly all of them (not Royce Lewis) are making the major league minimum. 

This is important because if they are not making the minimum, they are chipping away at the available budget. 

 

I am among the most ardent supporters of the need to develop young/inexpensive players and I have been pointing to the Rays and Guardians as examples for a long time.  However, a couple things should be pointed out here. 

One, most TDers actively speak out against the operating models of these teams.  The most repeated themes on this site might be "dumpster diving" and "cheap Pohlads".  Tampa does waaay more "dumpster diving" and they spend far less that the twins.

Two, there is a point of diminishing returns.  Players best years tend to be the years they are arbitration eligible.  If the team was able to add talent in a perfectly uniform manner, they would have 13 prearb players with 13 arbitration eligible players or players or extensions and never have the need to add a single free agent.  They could average $10M on arbitration players and be within their current spending level.   

I agree with your basic point here.  They have been mediocre in adding young talent and that won't cut it with below average revenue.  I do see this ratio improving soon.  Paddack will be replaced by Festa / Matthews.  France will be replaced by Julien or Sabato.  Vasquez might be replaced by a FA but Cardenas has a good shot at that spot given his defense.   Bader is 50/50.  If they agree to terms with him, one of Larnach or Wallner gets traded.  Coulombe might be resigned or replaced by another free agent but we also might see one or two of the prospects being used in multi-inning relief role.  The development of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Martin will hopefully force a trade of Larnach or Wallner and further increase the ratio.  My bet is the ratio will improve in a month and pretty much stay that way.

[mikelink45]

Bader is really a great pick up and probably doing so well the Twins won't want to offer him his next contract!  I would imagine there will be a lot of interest from other teams and the price will rise. 

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

There's something seriously wrong with Correa, IMO it's not only mechanics. 

Have you not seen him wearing a back brace in the dugout? There was a story about how it takes hours before the game to get his feet into playing shape.

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Have you not seen him wearing a back brace in the dugout? There was a story about how it takes hours before the game to get his feet into playing shape.

He was wearing that brace when he hit over .300 last season. I think it is a chronic thing for him. Going back a long time, Greg Gagne had back issues which required constant maintenance for almost his entire career and it never overtly affected his career. 

Correa is only thirty, but it seems he hasn't aged well. The Twins look like they will be getting a diminishing player for the balance of his rich contract. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He will decline it. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties.

Agreed. Keeping Bader will require a new contract. Probably in the 9-12m a year for 2-3 years range. Worth it? I think so but a tough call, assuming he wants to stay.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Once a series... I will post the number of pre-arb players on the 26 man roster from the opposing team. 

This weekend... the Rays have brought 16 pre-arb players with them to Target field. 

With Funderburk replacing Ober on the 26 man roster. The Twins now have 11 pre-arb players. The Rays broke camp with 17... The Twins broke camp with 8. 

The Rays are currently 48-40 on the year. 

The Twins are currently 42-46. 

When I say pre-arb... I'm just counting players with less than 3 years service time.

For example. Royce Lewis (Super-Two) is counted among the 11 Twins pre-arb players even if he is in his first year of arbitration and makes more than the minimum. He counts because I'm really just down and dirty counting those who started 2025 with less then 3.000 of MLB service time. 

It would be 10 with Lewis off the pre-arb list. That would run counter to the Twins development lull point I'm trying to make. The Lower the number, the more dramatic my point.

Regardless, I'm OK with the inclusion of Lewis since this will be a season long youth point that I am making by comparison to our peers and less than 3 year service time is the line I've chosen to signify youth. I chose that line because nearly all of them (not Royce Lewis) are making the major league minimum. 

This is important because if they are not making the minimum, they are chipping away at the available budget. 

 

When Lewis was on the IL, Brooks Lee was the youngest position player (24), and the second youngest was Wallner (27). That isn't much youth at all, even more than the number of pre-arb players would indicate. The Twins do need to get younger and faster if they want to compete. 

[karcherd]

Bader needs to be a role player, that is how he brings the most value.  He will always give good defense, but on offense he will have days like yesterday but also a lot of  0 for days as a regular.  He has had one good month with offensive numbers and that was the month he had the least amount of AB's.  He needs to be a forth outfielder, not an every day player.  This team needs to either develop or find players that can play every day that can produce on a consistent basis.  This is why we have the long losing streaks and a winning streak thrown in when everything clicks for a few games.

And now the one guy who has been producing on a regular basis is sitting on the bench for the second game in a row.  You are not going to win consistently with Bader and Castro playing every day.

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Bader needs to be a role player, that is how he brings the most value.  He will always give good defense, but on offense he will have days like yesterday but also a lot of  0 for days as a regular.  He has had one good month with offensive numbers and that was the month he had the least amount of AB's.  He needs to be a forth outfielder, not an every day player.  This team needs to either develop or find players that can play every day that can produce on a consistent basis.  This is why we have the long losing streaks and a winning streak thrown in when everything clicks for a few games.

And now the one guy who has been producing on a regular basis is sitting on the bench for the second game in a row.  You are not going to win consistently with Bader and Castro playing every day.

If you can build a lineup like the 2019 Twins, then Bader could start 140 games, but the Twins haven't had anything resembling an elite lineup since 2021. I believe Bader leads the team in infield hits which has kept his offensive numbers in the plus range, but I doubt his offense is sustainable. Good speed and defense don't slump, so I don't mind him starting a majority of games, but that is a symptom that the club lacks talent.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He will decline it. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties.

While it is true that most mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. I always assume it's because of performance disparity. If the player struggles, the club walks away. If the player plays well, he goes back into the market to get more for his performance.  

I believe this mutual option is for 10 Million with plate appearance escalators.  His reward for good performance is already baked in. Harrison and his agent would have to believe that he could get more than 10 million plus whatever it escalates to... to decline it. Kepler got 1 year at 10 million from the Phillies so... I don't know... Maybe he declines it because a team could offer more but I'm not sure how much more a team is willing to offer because the majority of teams struggle with the same budget demons that the Twins struggle with.  

In consideration of that current budget stress, which I don't believe will go away this upcoming off-season (even with new owners). You can't discount the possibility that the Twins will decline the option because they may not have 10 million available to pay him.  

Breaking it down. 

For 2025 he is guaranteed 4.75M with another 2M possible in performance bonus... the bonuses are mostly tied to awards as far as I can tell so let's just leave his number at 4.75 which will be coming off the books. 

Other contracts coming off the books: 

Vazquez 10M, Paddack 7.5M, Castro 6.4M, Coulombe 3M, France 1M and Topa 1M (Club Option at 2M).

That's about 33.65 coming off the books and 7 roster spots to fill. 

8 players are due arbitration raises: Jeffers, Duran, Ober, Ryan, Jax, Larnach, Stewart and Lewis. 2 players will be Arb 1: Sands and Clemens 

I don't know how much this group will earn exactly in raises through arbitration and therefore how much is taken from the 33.65 million available.

According to the information I've found online, the average arbitration raise is 113%. For this exercise let's just make the math easy and say 100% raises for the 8 players moving up the arbitration. Those 8 players are making 19.2 this year collectively. 100% raise and those 8 players will be making 38.4 collectively. Add in whatever you think Sands and Clemens will get in their first year. I don't know but let's say 2 million a piece and we are at 42.4 million in raises.

This means that payroll is already up 8.75M in 2026 before even considering picking up the 10M option on Bader and keep in mind that we have 7 roster spots on the 26 man roster to fill with Bader, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Coulombe, France and Topa not signed beyond this season. If the Twins pick up the 10M on Bader... payroll will be up 18.7M with 6 roster spots to fill. 

This isn't directed at you... It's directed at everyone who doesn't understand why I stick on these subjects. I'm just piggy backing off your quote.

This is why I'm raising the caution flag.

This is why I'm counting the pre-arb players on the rosters of other clubs and trying my best to tell everyone that it matters.

This is why I'm pretty convinced that we have a development problem, that is financially unsustainable and will lead to an eventual hard crash and high draft pick the following year and probably years to come.

This is what I mean when I say that a bill is coming due for the constant parade of low one year contract filler year after year.

This is what I mean when strip mining your left handers for parts and handcuffing them with 4 million dollar Margot's is a bill that will come due.

This is what I mean when I say that I don't have a problem with Bader as a ball player but I have a problem with needing to sign someone like Bader.

This is why I talk about all 13 roster spots being gold and am disappointed every time a roster spot is wasted weather it be Bride, McCusker, Fitzgerald or whoever because the Twins have to start making up the difference between the 18 Pre-Arb players the Tigers, Brewers and Rays are winning with and the 8 pre-arb players that the Twins are treading water with. 

Bottom Line: Bader has been great... I love watching him play. He single handedly won the game for us yesterday.

The Twins could barely afford his his 4 to 6 million this year and I don't see them being able to afford the 10m next year.

My prediction is that if the club option is picked up by the Twins. Players that we all know and love will have to be traded to make room. Larnach? Duran? Lopez? They may need to be traded even if we don't sign Bader. If we are moving these type of players... are we starting a rebuild? The rebuild may be necessary regardless because this isn't sustainable. Once you start to lose names like those... Is 10 million for a 32 year old Bader (as decent as he has been this year) worth it? 

I think that Bader will be allowed to enter free agency where the market will determine his value and we will continue our bargain shopping to fill the available roster spots.  

Develop or Die.