What If The Minnesota Twins Are Sellers At The Deadline?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Less than two weeks ago, I wrote that the Twins should pursue a trade for a big bat to bolster the offense. Since then, the complexion has changed a bit, as the team continues to look lost. On Monday, Matt Braun looked at the possibility of a 2018-style retool. However, if the slide continues, fans may face the real possibility that the Twins could go even further: to reach the conclusion that the current core is unlikely to win consistently, and to sell everyone with less than a few years of control remaining.

To be clear, this is not a path I would advocate for, as a true tear down is far from certain to actually work, and would almost certainly lead to a long stretch of unwatchable baseball. That said, the Twins do have a number of players that are likely to fetch legitimate assets in return. In some cases, this can lead to a a restock of the system. Look at everyone the Twins traded in 2022 for a solid starter, a solid reliever, Jorge López, and a depth catcher.

So, who are the guys who could be dangled if things continue to go poorly, and what might they fetch? Let’s dig in!

The Rentals
This group is pretty straightforward. They all are on expiring contracts, and all have positive trade value. As Braun noted, they are likely to move even in a roster retool.

Willi Castro, Braun pointed out, is sort of similar to what the Twins had in Eduardo Escobar. He’s been an above-average hitter since signing with the Twins, and offers defensive flexibility. The Twins got the prospect version of Jhoan Duran for Escobar, and Castro could fetch a similar return.

Harrison Bader has experienced a renaissance in his age-31 season. Long known for his defensive prowess and speed on the bases, he has been better than expected offensively as well. On pace for around 2.5 fWAR and with $3 million remaining, teams in need of right-handed outfield help might fetch a borderline top-100 guy. The Twins got Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz, and while they aren’t similar stylistically, the return could be.

 

Ty France has been an enigma since signing with the Twins. Known as a weak defender but solid bat, he has flipped the script, not hitting much at all for a first baseman (except when he’s batted with runners on; then he’s been great). Making basically the league minimum, the Twins would have no trouble moving him, although the return would be a lottery ticket prospect.

Chris Paddack, the oft-injured starter, has been perfectly fine for the Twins, as long as you don’t look too hard under the hood. At this point, trading him would probably be mostly a salary dump, with a middling prospect coming back if a team really likes him.

Danny Coulombe has been great for the Twins as a secondary setup man at an affordable price. Owed about $1.5 million for the rest of the season, he would improve any contender’s bullpen. The Twins traded Sawyer Gipson-Long, a promising starting pitching prospect, for Michael Fulmer three seasons ago, and could expect a similar return for Coulombe.

Guys With Two-Plus Years of Control
Jhoan Duran is a “proven closer”, and we all know his stuff is filthy. Any contender would love to slot Duran into the back of their bullpen. He would fetch multiple good prospects, or a pre-arbitration regular that could immediately slot into the roster. As hard as it would be to lose Duran, the haul would be impressive.

Griffin Jax, while he doesn’t have the track record of closing, would probably fetch a return a half-step less than Duran. In short, multiple good prospects.

Trevor Larnach is an above-average hitter and a sub-par defender in the outfield. For a team looking at a corner lefty bat, they could do worse. I would guess the return wouldn’t be enough to seriously consider moving him, particularly since the Twins have been struggling offensively.

The Ones That Would Hurt
This group consists of players who have two-plus years of control remaining, and who the Twins will probably only move if they are offered the world. Yes, the guys who don’t have guaranteed deals will start getting expensive, but at the same time, they won’t be that expensive for a team lacking the self-imposed budgetary constraints the Twins have.

Pablo Lopez, the Twins staff ace, is signed to a deal that half the teams in the league would love. He likely has somewhere between $5-8 million in surplus value on an annual basis. He’s worth every penny the Twins are paying him. But, he’s accounting for something like one-sixth of the Twins' payroll. He would fetch at least one top-100 prospect, plus some additional pieces.

Joe Ryan might be the player opposing teams would be most interested in. 2026 will represent his second trip through arbitration-eligibility and will probably make something in the range of $6-8 million next year, and perhaps $12-15 million in 2027. He would fetch a haul as a pitcher who’s not quite a frontline starter, but he’s close. Jose Berrios brought back Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin, both of whom were top-100 prospects at the time. Ryan is better than Berrios was, and has an extra year of team control. Were the Twins to trade Ryan, they could just about name their price. Multiple top-100 guys, including at least one elite prospect with real potential to be an All-Star.

 

 

Bailey Ober would have fetched a very similar haul to Ryan, if not for the past few months of mediocre pitching, potentially stemming from a mechanical issue or a nagging hip issue. But, he’s got the track record of excellence and two-plus years of control. In 2022, the Twins traded Spencer Steer, Steven Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle. At the time, that was a fringe top-100 guy in Steer, and Ober has one more year of control, and has been better than Mahle was. Even in a down year, it would be a haul.

The Guys Who Aren’t Going Anywhere
Finally, we have some guys that it just won’t make sense to trade, or that the Twins will be unable to find a deal that makes sense.

Carlos Correa has a full no-trade clause and likes Minnesota. Plus, the Twins are underwater on his contract, as typically happens a few years into any multi-year deal. Even if the Twins would like to get out from under that deal (and there’s no sense this is the case) they would need to include salary relief, include significant prospects, or both. Not happening.

Byron Buxton is in a similar situation, sort of. His $15 million annual salary has been a steal for the Twins, so it’s not a situation the Twins would likely want to extricate from. He also has a full no-trade clause and has loudly stated his desire to retire a member of the Twins.

Many teams would covet Ryan Jeffers, but the Twins almost certainly won’t move him for one simple reason: they don’t have any other catchers in the system that would be ready to be anything more than a backup in 2026.

Royce Lewis is a currently-distressed asset, and also has tremendous upside still. With three full seasons of control after this year, I can’t imagine the Twins shopping him.

The pre-arbitration guys: David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Louie Varland, Luke Keaschall, and the guys who have yet to debut. If the problem is the current core, there’s no reason to deal from the next core.

Looking through this somewhat extensive list of assets, it’s clear the Twins could quickly turn their farm system into the best in baseball should the become sellers at the deadline. I, for one, hope it doesn’t come to that.

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[Whitey333]

The most logical one for me is Duran.  He should bring in a good return.  Plus we may not need him should we continue to nosedive.  You won't get much for Lewis with his fragile body and his questionable performance.  Besides we kept Buxton for 10 years using him part time due to the injuries.  He's having a great year now looking like just his second full season in 10 years.  I don't think the Twins will make that same mistake with Lewis.  I hope not.  I just don't see the Twins making any significant moves again this tradeline.

[Sjoski]

The Betsy Helfand posting on X from 2022 make me cringe at what this front office might so as seller and not buyers.

 

 

[Old Crow]

53 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

The Betsy Helfand posting on X from 2022 make me cringe at what this front office might so as seller and not buyers.

 

 

How do you spell hornswoogle.

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

The Betsy Helfand posting on X from 2022 make me cringe at what this front office might so as seller and not buyers.

Yeah, I don't want them to sell a top starting pitcher and get mostly nothing in return like the Reds did in 2022.

[mikelink45]

At one time I thought - we have the prospects we don't need to add more, but many of the prospects have dimmed for me like Winokur and Em and the pitching pipeline no longer looks great so I guess it is good to speculate on getting new blood, but there are two stats that are meaningful - end of contract and no desire to resign - like Paddock and age.  Castro and Bader have been great additions and I would be reluctant to trade either, but will we sign them again?

Danny Coulombe has done great but he is 35, not a long future for him. Justin Topa is 34, but I don't think he has any trade value. Christian Vasquez is 34 - but was old at 32 - who needs a catcher fill in at his price? Brock Stewart is 33 and breaks down every year - is he worth anything on the market?

If I add a third question - who do we have to replace them?  I would not trade Duran and Jax - getting good RP in this age of 5 pitchers per game is not easy. If Ober gets fixed he is in the same category.  We have to replace Paddock, do we trust our pitcher prospects to step in for him? 

[DJL44]

I don't see any incentive for the Twins to sell players with multiple years of team control remaining. They're not having a good season, but they have the talent to make the playoffs as a wild-card team next season.

I will make an exception to that for Justin Topa and Brock Stewart. Both relievers are on the wrong side of 30 with a long history of injuries. I would try to sell both of those pitchers at the deadline. They're paid almost nothing, currently effective and healthy. They each have quite a bit of team control remaining but I'm pessimistic they will be able to pitch effectively for those remaining seasons.

I would sell on Paddack, Castro, France, Bader, Coulombe, Vazquez, Stewart and Topa. That's a lot of roster turnover but it leaves the best part of the pitching staff intact.

[MikeNC]

Don’t hold your breath.  Twins won’t catch Detroit, but they are only 3 games out of the final wild card spot.  To be so, despite their recent dreadful swoon, speaks to the mediocrity of the competition.  And that alone seems to be this organization’s goal.  Limp into the playoffs, get massacred by the Yankees, rinse, repeat.

[Major League Ready]

I just hope they are not caught in the middle and do nothing with a team that might make the playoffs but go nowhere.  That’s an opportunity missed to invest playing time for young players that might be part of the solution.  If they are sellers, the only non-rental I see as likely to be traded is one of Larnach or Wallner.  I could see them banking on some combination of E. Rodriguez / Jenkins / GG and Martin.  

I guess I would not be shocked to see Pablo go if the return was great.  Coulombe would be the most likely player on the entire roster to be traded but I don't see them selling of any RPs under team control next year. Duran is not a FA until 2028 so it would have to be an enormous return.

If they are not legit contenders, I would like to see them sell as many players on expiring contracts as possible. Move France and give Julien another shot a 1B or even Sabato if the FO believes he is ready.  So far he has not skipped a beat going to AAA.  Move Bader and insert either E. Rodriquez or Austin Martin.  It’s a stretch but maybe they could trade Vazquez and throw Cardenas in the deep end if he plays well between now and the deadline.  

On the pitching side, Matthews / Festa and perhaps Morris or Adams get established.  On the position side, Lewis and Keaschall are back along with the prospects mentioned above and it would be more interesting to watch than a 500 team with no legit chance in the post season. 
 

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't see any incentive for the Twins to sell players with multiple years of team control remaining. They're not having a good season, but they have the talent to make the playoffs as a wild-card team next season.

This is why they should sell. Aspiring to be an 85 win team isn't bold or inspiring. They should instead try to be a 90 win team in 2027. And trading Duran makes that outcome more likely. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This is why they should sell. Aspiring to be an 85 win team isn't bold or inspiring. They should instead try to be a 90 win team in 2027. And trading Duran makes that outcome more likely. 

I would rather have Duran in the bullpen on that 2027 team.

[saviking]

To move Correa ... would have to include cash relief or we give them significant projects. 

Nothing .. says we screwed up signing Correa than this. How many more years isnhe signed for? 

[Sjoski]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Yeah, I don't want them to sell a top starting pitcher and get mostly nothing in return like the Reds did in 2022.

 

In 2022 the Reds trade Mahle to the Twins and walked away with Spencer Steer and CES. In return the Twins got four starts in ‘22, two in ‘23, then a scare. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

 

In 2022 the Reds trade Mahle to the Twins and walked away with Spencer Steer and CES. In return the Twins got four starts in ‘22, two in ‘23, then a scare. 

The Reds got a utility player who projects to 0.5 WAR in 2025 and one of the worst 1B in MLB.

[Thumbs Down Guy]

24 minutes ago, saviking said:

To move Correa ... would have to include cash relief or we give them significant projects. 

Nothing .. says we screwed up signing Correa than this. How many more years isnhe signed for? 

He is guaranteed to be here through 2028 season with four years of vesting/team options after that.

Here are the terms according to sportrac. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/14168/carlos-correa

[Sjoski]

35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Reds got a utility player who projects to 0.5 WAR in 2025 and one of the worst 1B in MLB.

I'll give you that. But the trade tree is still alive for the Reds. Twins tree is dead. 

Twins took a shot and lost in 2022. At least they pulled the trigger. I just have little to no confidence in the current combination...owner,  gm, manager. 

[mnfireman]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Reds got a utility player who projects to 0.5 WAR in 2025 and one of the worst 1B in MLB.

Facing his old organization seems to have righted the ship for Steer: .386/.378/.773 (1.151 OPS) 4 HR, 9 RBI, 8/0 K/BB in his last 11 games (the start of the series against the Twins to present).

He seems to have settled in at 1B this season after being used in more of a utility roll in his previous seasons.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

I just have little to no confidence in this current combination...owner,  Gm, manager. 

This is the front office that got Duran for Escobar and Ryan for Cruz. They've done a fair job selling at the deadline. I'd much rather they sold the expiring contracts than just letting them expire while they finish with 78 wins.

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, NYCTK said:

This is why they should sell. Aspiring to be an 85 win team isn't bold or inspiring. They should instead try to be a 90 win team in 2027. And trading Duran makes that outcome more likely. 

Probably but the biggest gains are probably post 2027.   The Twins need to accumulate more talent.  The current roster simply does not have what it takes.   Of course, many teams improve organically but there are also many cases of where very good players were traded away and the return accumulated talent that elevated the seller's future.  Look at the result of Washington trading Soto.  Those players are on place to produce almost 20WAR for 10% of Soto's contract and they will be contributing for several years.

[Sjoski]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'd much rather they sold the expiring contracts than just letting them expire while they finish with 78 wins.

That's a fair take and I agree.

But looking at the bigger picture... compare the Twins to the Tigers.

 

Since 2017, the Tigers chose a clear path and stuck to it. It took time, but now they have a maturing core and are built to compete.

 

The Twins, meanwhile, chose the middle path—not rebuilding, not fully contending. And now, eight years later, they’ve plateaued. A front office that once preached sustainability now looks risk-averse, indecisive, and out of ideas.

 

What’s done is done—no point re-litigating it. The real question is: where does this franchise go from here?

 

Everything pivots on who the new owners will be, and more importantly, why they want the team. Unfortunately, with each passing day, that transition feels further away—not closer.

[1991]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

The most logical one for me is Duran.  He should bring in a good return.  Plus we may not need him should we continue to nosedive.  You won't get much for Lewis with his fragile body and his questionable performance.  Besides we kept Buxton for 10 years using him part time due to the injuries.  He's having a great year now looking like just his second full season in 10 years.  I don't think the Twins will make that same mistake with Lewis.  I hope not.  I just don't see the Twins making any significant moves again this tradeline.

At this point, I'd say anyone above the "not going anywhere" line is fair game.  It's too bad we cant dump the Correa and Buxton contracts.  Do a major reset and go young and homegrown.  

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

This is why they should sell. Aspiring to be an 85 win team isn't bold or inspiring. They should instead try to be a 90 win team in 2027. And trading Duran makes that outcome more likely. 

Exactly.  I've mentioned this a few times myself.  I don't know about trading Duran, but the guys who become free agents are all on the block; and Castro could bring a solid return; certainly a solid #2 catcher.

[Jeff K]

13 minutes ago, 1991 said:

At this point, I'd say anyone above the "not going anywhere" line is fair game.  It's too bad we cant dump the Correa and Buxton contracts.  Do a major reset and go young and homegrown.  

Why in the world would the Twins want to "dump" the Buxton contract?  If they trade him (and he would have to agree), it would have to be for significant assets.  And I don't think they should.

[LambchoP]

They should trade everyone on expiring contracts and get as much as they can for those guys. Castro, Paddack, Bader and Coloumbe should bring some prospects to us. Then, if we get a good enough offer then trade Duran. I think I remember the returns for good closets in the past have brought back AAA SP, AAA RP and maybe a AA bat. If we could get a near ready upside SP and a MLB caliber catcher or first baseman I say go for it. Jax has more than enough talent to take over as closer. He's cheaper too, which matters to this ownership.

[mluebker]

This is a question that has too many possible answers. What will matter at the trade deadline is who are the buyers, what do they need, and do the Twins have it? All the guys likely to be available are pretty much known and covered in the article, so that’s good to know. Whether any other teams actually need or want any of them for what the Twins might be asking for any of them is a total crapshoot.

[TheLeviathan]

The roster needs a younger talent infusion and there may be limited sellers this year.  Perfect time to sell.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

What a horrible position the Twins are in right now. Good enough to believe they have a chance at the playoffs, bad enough to know they won't go anywhere. That article talking about the Twins having a realistic chance at 90 wins a while back has not aged well.

ANY bullpen guy could be had for the right price. IMO, Duran should seriously be considered trade material as they would be selling high on him right now.

I still don't know why there is any discussion to trade Lopez, Ryan, or Ober, especially the last two.  SP contracts are crazy high right now, Lopez contract is below market value, Ryan and Ober are still cost controlled and insanely cheap for what you are getting (albeit Ober is struggling right now).

Anyone that thinks Buxton's contract is an albatross has not really looked at his contract and the value he brings.

Paddack is a low-end extension candidate, considering the performance of SWR, Festa, and Ober. Castro is another extension candidate.

Realistic sell options:
Bader
France
Any BP guy (keeping 2 of Duran, Jax, Sands, Varland group)
Paddack and Castro (if the Twins have no intention to re-sign them)

[Hubie29]

4 hours ago, Sjoski said:

The Betsy Helfand posting on X from 2022 make me cringe at what this front office might so as seller and not buyers.

 

 

They did this as buyers not sellers. Let's hope they sell this time. 

[1991]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Why in the world would the Twins want to "dump" the Buxton contract?  If they trade him (and he would have to agree), it would have to be for significant assets.  And I don't think they should.

He's 31, injury prone and bound to regress next year.  You trade him for a max return value because he's having a career year.  See ya!

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Sjoski said:

The Betsy Helfand posting on X from 2022 make me cringe at what this front office might so as seller and not buyers.

 

 

Recapping a very bad day of TC trades.