What If The Minnesota Twins Are Sellers At The Deadline?

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Sjoski said:

 

In 2022 the Reds trade Mahle to the Twins and walked away with Spencer Steer and CES. In return the Twins got four starts in ‘22, two in ‘23, then a scare. 

The trade was less then helpful from the TC perspective.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Reds got a utility player who projects to 0.5 WAR in 2025 and one of the worst 1B in MLB.

Still more then TC got from the deal.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, 1991 said:

At this point, I'd say anyone above the "not going anywhere" line is fair game.  It's too bad we cant dump the Correa and Buxton contracts.  Do a major reset and go young and homegrown.  

I continued to be astonished by people wanting to "dump Buxton's contract".  He is on pace to produce 6.8 WAR for a little over $15M.  That's 1WAR for every $2.3M.  He is a bargain.  Of course he is having a good year.  Last year he produced 3.7 WAR which is still a bargain at a little over $4M WAR.  

We are going to shed 35.6M next year.  Of course, we are going to add some cost for arbitration increases but we do not need to shed a highly productive contract.  If a team made a crazy offer for him, anyone is tradeable, but his contract should not be the reason to get rid of him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Steer is a solid everyday player. He started this season with shoulder issues but has been making up for lost time with 3 HR last night. 

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Yeah, I don't want them to sell a top starting pitcher and get mostly nothing in return like the Reds did in 2022.

 

Edited June 29, 2025 by Hosken Bombo Disco
Edited out sarcasm comment

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

We hear a lot of talk about “playing the young guys” and everything that entails. But that doesn’t happen until Correa is moved. 

[Mahoning]

One of the problems with "rebuild," is: What is the evidence that the Twins know how to evaluate and develop talent? The only living, breathing, and actually on-the-field position player they have produced recently is Brooks Lee, and he is hardly time-tested. Starting pitchers, if they aren't injured, can barely go five. Nobody hits for average. Who, at AAA, is a future star? If Zebby and Festa had proven anything, the guy to trade would have been Pablo. 

[Dman]

I have been on the seller train since the teams ugly start.  When the starting pitching and pen are good this team looks pretty tough but with the all the arm injuries and the offense not really clicking it seems unlikely they make a run.  

They have 4 good players on expiring contracts and I would try and get something for all of them. It seems a year early to unload Duran, but if a team decided to overpay and they got things they needed I could see that happening.  It is just that Duran is a sure things closer so you'd be looking at another teams number 1 or 2 prospects to make a deal IMO.  I am just not sure how many teams would be wiling to give up what it would take to get Duran since he effectively has three years of control left.

I looked at trading Topa but with his low K rate and mediocre numbers he has more value to the Twins with his low salary and solid effectiveness than anything he would likely return.  I don't think they could or would deal him.

Stewart has the stuff playoff teams like, but with his injury history and lack of innings year to year I just don't see a team taking on that kind of risk and doing an overpay.  Again he likely has more value on his lower salaried contract for the Twins than anything they could get in trade. If a team gave a return of bullpen ace with three years control remaining I would jump at it considering his injury history, but I doubt it happens. It would be a deal comparable to Jax or Duran and I think teams would prefer Jax or Duran to Stewart.

There is no real reason to trade Jax right now.  He doesn't cost that much and he has control left.  I guess some type of overpay might get it done, but I doubt the Twins would want to move on.

Not that you can trust trade values but Vasquez has a negative value on their site.  I am sure the Twins would love to dump that salary but the return would be almost nothing.

I don't see France bringing back much either unless a team really believes his clutch hitting with runners in scoring position is for real.  Then he could be a decent backup for 1st base, DH or pinch hitter.  I have heard the team loves him but if they could get a decent asset they should.

I'd also trade Clemens if anyone was interested.  He has cooled off considerably and he doesn't look like a long term fixture for this team anyway.  Not sure if anyone would be interested but if they could get something they should.

I would try to unload as many players as they can for assets with an eye toward starting pitching prospects.  With Paddack gone after this year and Ober stumbling they'll need Festa, Matthews and SWR as possible starting rotation pieces.  You can say that next year they would have Raya or Prielipp as potential depth but both arms have had poor results so far this year.  Morris might be OK, but he has been good one game horrible the next so not certain he can be "counted on"  So if they are sellers they need to address that as best they can.  A stud hitter wouldn't hurt either, but when you look at our top 30 we have hitters on the way (i.e prospects 1 through 4 are hitters)  but not much for arms.

I'd sell everything I can if the deals make sense from a value perspective.  The Twins need to strengthen the pool of younger players to keep this team moving forward.

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Paddack is a low-end extension candidate, considering the performance of SWR, Festa, and Ober. Castro is another extension candidate.

It is quite rare for players to sign an extension this close to free agency.

[rdehring]

Fortunately, the Twins have another 3+ weeks before they need to make any of these decisions.  The world may look a lot different come July 25.  Or not.

I will, however, ask the same question I did on a similar post last week.  If you include Larnach, why not include Wallner.  Both are average, at best defensively and don't run all that well.  Both hit from the left side and although Wallner has big power, he ain't connecting all that much.  To my old eye, Larnach seems to be the better bat, at least for most of this year.  So if Larnach, why not Wallner?

[Mahoning]

Right now Paddack is better than Festa and Simeon and the utterly-disappeared Zebby, plus he seems to like it here. I'd try to wrap him up.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, 1991 said:

He's 31, injury prone and bound to regress next year.  You trade him for a max return value because he's having a career year.  See ya!

Well "See ya", you clearly don't understand his no trade clause.  But that's fine.  Adios

[BillyBallLives]

Anyone want to play a round of Imagine IF? Just having some fun  y'all. I'll show myself to the door.

-----

Setting:
Late July 2025. Target Field. Some private meeting space.
The Minnesota Twins have just dropped four straight. Fan morale is low. Media is circling like vultures. A decision must be made: Buy or Sell?

---

[Joe Pohlad – Owner]:
Alright. Enough dilly-dallying. I need to know—are we buying or selling at the deadline?

[Derek Falvey – President of Baseball Operations]:
That depends. Do you mean “buy” like spend actual money, or “buy” like... pick up another DFA guy with a 6.40 ERA and call it a reclamation project?

[Rocco Baldelli – Manager] (rubbing his temples):
Can we define “deadline” first? Because our bullpen expired in May.

[Joe Pohlad]:
Okay, funny. But let’s be real. We’re .500 again. Half our lineup is hitting under .220, the bullpen’s in flames, and attendance is down 12%. Fans are calling us “mid.” What are we doing?

[Falvey]:
Look. If we squint really hard, we’re technically still in the Wild Card race.

[Rocco]:
So is a squirrel trying to cross I-94. Doesn’t mean he’s gonna make it.

[Joe] (ignoring Rocco):
Alright, Derek—what are our trade options?

[Falvey]:
Well, we could move France. Or maybe Castro. Get some prospects. Blow it up. Reset the window. Or...

[Rocco] (cutting in):
Or we could finally do what every playoff team does—get a solid reliever, another starter, and a legit bat. Not some guy in Triple-A with 20 big-league at-bats and a .191 average.

[Falvey]:
We have a starter. He’s just… in Double-A right now. He throws 102. Probably needs another year.

[Joe]:
So… you’re saying we’re sellers?

[Falvey]:
No, I’m saying we’re wait-and-see-ers. Maybe lean “buy-lite.”

[Rocco]:
We “buy-lite” every year. It’s like trying to plug a leaky dam with chewing gum.

[Joe]:
Guys. I just greenlit new sponsorships. We can’t tank right now. The “Cherry Berry 9th-Inning Freeze” promo depends on late-game excitement.

[Rocco]:
There is no late-game excitement. Our ninth innings are like funerals.

[Falvey] (flipping through papers):
Okay… what if we traded a mid-tier prospect for a middle reliever with a 3.90 ERA and called it “aggressive”?

[Joe]:
You’re just describing Dylan Floro again.

[Rocco]:
If we’re selling, be honest. If we’re buying, buy. Just don’t call standing still “strategy.”

[Falvey] (sighing):
Alright. We’ll do what we always do. Trade a struggling starter for a reliever who used to be good… and pray it’s 2022 again.

[Joe]:
Perfect. Let’s announce we’re “committed to winning” while doing nothing.

[Rocco]:
You want me to say that in the press conference?

[Joe]:
No. Just say we “believe in the guys in this room.”

[Falvey]:
That’s our deadline move. Belief.

---

[End Scene]
Meanwhile, Jorge Alcalá strikes out the side for the Red Sox. And Twins Twitter implodes. 💥

[Sjoski]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Steer is a solid everyday player. He started this season with shoulder issues but has been making up for lost time with 3 HR last night. 

Wow...

Nice notation on Steer.

In the history of MLB.

There have only been 650 3-HR games about twice as common as no-hitters, 323.

What did the Twins get...41.1 pitched innings out of the trade? 

 

[CRF]

What if they're dead, at the sell line?

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It is quite rare for players to sign an extension this close to free agency.

That is fair but there are risks for both. Paddack risks not getting the best possible deal for himself. By staying he risks another injury and the best offer he can get in return is a minor league deal. I think there is a better chance of an extension for Paddack than most heading to the all star break in their last year.

I would not offer an extension. I think the injury risk is too great for Paddack. I would listen to offers but set a bar. For some of the others with expiring contracts I would take the best I can get. I would set a bar for Castro and Coulombe also and keep them if it is not reached.

[The Great Hambino]

54 minutes ago, CRF said:

What if they're dead, at the sell line?

[olerud]

I hope they are sellers,  paddack and Castro for sure and others for the right price!

[Dman]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

That is fair but there are risks for both. Paddack risks not getting the best possible deal for himself. By staying he risks another injury and the best offer he can get in return is a minor league deal. I think there is a better chance of an extension for Paddack than most heading to the all star break in their last year.

I would not offer an extension. I think the injury risk is too great for Paddack. I would listen to offers but set a bar. For some of the others with expiring contracts I would take the best I can get. I would set a bar for Castro and Coulombe also and keep them if it is not reached.

I agree on setting a bar.  If all teams want to give are lottery tickets or maybe slightly higher it isn't going to help much.  Might as well play things out. Need to be in the top 5 of lists and top 10 of other teams depending on depth of the system.  Need players that at least appear to be difference makers and or at least likely to be contributors. otherwise there isn't much reason to let them go other than saving money.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I have been on the seller train since the teams ugly start.  When the starting pitching and pen are good this team looks pretty tough but with the all the arm injuries and the offense not really clicking it seems unlikely they make a run.  

They have 4 good players on expiring contracts and I would try and get something for all of them. It seems a year early to unload Duran, but if a team decided to overpay and they got things they needed I could see that happening.  It is just that Duran is a sure things closer so you'd be looking at another teams number 1 or 2 prospects to make a deal IMO.  I am just not sure how many teams would be wiling to give up what it would take to get Duran since he effectively has three years of control left.

I looked at trading Topa but with his low K rate and mediocre numbers he has more value to the Twins with his low salary and solid effectiveness than anything he would likely return.  I don't think they could or would deal him.

Stewart has the stuff playoff teams like, but with his injury history and lack of innings year to year I just don't see a team taking on that kind of risk and doing an overpay.  Again he likely has more value on his lower salaried contract for the Twins than anything they could get in trade. If a team gave a return of bullpen ace with three years control remaining I would jump at it considering his injury history, but I doubt it happens. It would be a deal comparable to Jax or Duran and I think teams would prefer Jax or Duran to Stewart.

There is no real reason to trade Jax right now.  He doesn't cost that much and he has control left.  I guess some type of overpay might get it done, but I doubt the Twins would want to move on.

Not that you can trust trade values but Vasquez has a negative value on their site.  I am sure the Twins would love to dump that salary but the return would be almost nothing.

I don't see France bringing back much either unless a team really believes his clutch hitting with runners in scoring position is for real.  Then he could be a decent backup for 1st base, DH or pinch hitter.  I have heard the team loves him but if they could get a decent asset they should.

I'd also trade Clemens if anyone was interested.  He has cooled off considerably and he doesn't look like a long term fixture for this team anyway.  Not sure if anyone would be interested but if they could get something they should.

I would try to unload as many players as they can for assets with an eye toward starting pitching prospects.  With Paddack gone after this year and Ober stumbling they'll need Festa, Matthews and SWR as possible starting rotation pieces.  You can say that next year they would have Raya or Prielipp as potential depth but both arms have had poor results so far this year.  Morris might be OK, but he has been good one game horrible the next so not certain he can be "counted on"  So if they are sellers they need to address that as best they can.  A stud hitter wouldn't hurt either, but when you look at our top 30 we have hitters on the way (i.e prospects 1 through 4 are hitters)  but not much for arms.

I'd sell everything I can if the deals make sense from a value perspective.  The Twins need to strengthen the pool of younger players to keep this team moving forward.

 

Right there with you Dman on every point.  One slight tweak would be to add a catching prospect to the focus on pitching you propose.  That's a real weakness unless Cardenas has a great year.  They could find a decent free agent catcher to bridge the gap but getting one via trade for an expiring contract would be a very nice boost to this team.

I have always really like Stewart and would not be surprised if another team would pony up for him given he is not a free agent until 2028.  He does seem injury prone but with 2 1/2 years of control I would not want them to let him go unless it was a meaningful prospect.  If Duran is traded, the deal needs to include a teams #1 or 2 prospect plus a couple others.  

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Ryan indeed would bring back a haul, but man, that would be (to my perspective) about the most depressing move the Twins could make. I can’t help but think about the chances that they would have extended him by now, instead of it being even half realistic to trade him, were it not for the self-imposed budget restrictions and sale limbo. 

I’m less confident that Ober would have nearly as much value right now. The recent struggles would have to make teams wary. 

And the starting pitching situation has grown shaky enough that it really might be better just to keep Paddack as a reliable source of innings, if not consistently good ones…

[Dman]

22 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Right there with you Dman on every point.  One slight tweak would be to add a catching prospect to the focus on pitching you propose.  That's a real weakness unless Cardenas has a great year.  They could find a decent free agent catcher to bridge the gap but getting one via trade for an expiring contract would be a very nice boost to this team.

I have always really like Stewart and would not be surprised if another team would pony up for him given he is not a free agent until 2028.  He does seem injury prone but with 2 1/2 years of control I would not want them to let him go unless it was a meaningful prospect.  If Duran is traded, the deal needs to include a teams #1 or 2 prospect plus a couple others.  

I think we've talked about this before but just to reinforce the point look at what Detroit did at last years deadline.  They sold everything they could and they still made a run at the end with their young players.  Players they primarily drafted in Greene, Keith, Torkelson, Dingler, Meadows, Skubal etc. 

I get that young players don't just come up and replace veteran production, but you also have to realize just how valuable they are when they hit and how they can lift your team.  Detroit got rid of the vets on one year deals. They let their young players play and now they look like one of the better teams in baseball. 

Granted it took some time for some of those players.  It didn't all just happen last year, but the point is you need to build young cores in the minors and you do that with volume because not every player works out.  You do that by moving assets you likely aren't going to keep or you feel priced out of at the deadline or offseason.  The Twins are just stuck in the middle.  It is time to trade in assets for younger players and try to build something like Detroit.

[1991]

6 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Well "See ya", you clearly don't understand his no trade clause.  But that's fine.  Adios

You’re assuming he wouldn’t want to get traded out of this cluster.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I think we've talked about this before but just to reinforce the point look at what Detroit did at last years deadline.  They sold everything they could and they still made a run at the end with their young players.  Players they primarily drafted in Greene, Keith, Torkelson, Dingler, Meadows, Skubal etc. 

I get that young players don't just come up and replace veteran production, but you also have to realize just how valuable they are when they hit and how they can lift your team.  Detroit got rid of the vets on one year deals. They let their young players play and now they look like one of the better teams in baseball. 

Granted it took some time for some of those players.  It didn't all just happen last year, but the point is you need to build young cores in the minors and you do that with volume because not every player works out.  You do that by moving assets you likely aren't going to keep or you feel priced out of at the deadline or offseason.  The Twins are just stuck in the middle.  It is time to trade in assets for younger players and try to build something like Detroit.

I love this post. 

It seems that younger players have a stigma attached to them in our neck of the woods. We haven't had a lot of success with younger players so it's easy to develop a distaste. I get it... I understand but... but.  

It seems to be a Minnesota Twins problem... not exclusively but close enough that something needs to be done to keep up with others. Other teams are doing quite well with nearly half of their roster made up of young ball players. The Twins.. not so much. You are spot on... great post.  

[1991]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I continued to be astonished by people wanting to "dump Buxton's contract".  He is on pace to produce 6.8 WAR for a little over $15M.  That's 1WAR for every $2.3M.  He is a bargain.  Of course he is having a good year.  Last year he produced 3.7 WAR which is still a bargain at a little over $4M WAR.  

We are going to shed 35.6M next year.  Of course, we are going to add some cost for arbitration increases but we do not need to shed a highly productive contract.  If a team made a crazy offer for him, anyone is tradeable, but his contract should not be the reason to get rid of him.

You fanatics go ahead and keep dreaming. I went to my first Twins game in 1967. I know a little bit about baseball and this organization. Has he ever had a WAR this high?  My guess would be no and likely won’t be replicated for the reasons I gave earlier. 

[Riverbrian]

I'm not a big fan of the roster as it stands but... if the Twins are in contention at the deadline. They better not sell.

If anyone on this website (or in any front office) thinks they can predict the playoffs. I don't believe you can. If I'm wrong and you can indeed. Tell me about your past success and give me your picks right now so we can see if you can do it again.  

Now... if we are sellers. Moving the expiring contracts is a no-brainer and not moving them would be almost criminal. That type of thing should be routine seller activity. 

Now... if we are big sellers... I'm talking blow it up and start over type sellers. If we move Buxton or Ryan for example for bigger prospect hauls. If this is what we are talking about... if we are talking about Buxton and Ryan dealt for the start of a retool.

I want to be careful how I say this but... If we are tearing it up like that. 

I'd rather a different front office handle it.  

Our current development isn't giving me warm fuzzies and I rather not increase the number of fuzzies in their hands. 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Still more then TC got from the deal.

Only because they put all their eggs in the Mahle basket and the eggs broke. This season Mahle is the best player in that whole list of players.

[Dman]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not a big fan of the roster as it stands but... if the Twins are in contention at the deadline. They better not sell.

If anyone on this website (or in any front office) thinks they can predict the playoffs. I don't believe you can. If I'm wrong and you can indeed. Tell me about your past success and give me your picks right now so we can see if you can do it again.  

Now... if we are sellers. Moving the expiring contracts is a no-brainer and not moving them would be almost criminal. That type of thing should be routine seller activity. 

Now... if we are big sellers... I'm talking blow it up and start over type sellers. If we move Buxton or Ryan for example for bigger prospect hauls. If this is what we are talking about... if we are talking about Buxton and Ryan dealt for the start of a retool.

I want to be careful how I say this but... If we are tearing it up like that. 

I'd rather a different front office handle it.  

Our current development isn't giving me warm fuzzies. 

I wouldn't want to go the total rebuild route.  That is such a long painful thing to get through.  We can see that when healthy this team has the pitching to compete.  The hitting just hasn't been dangerous enough.  If they could get a great deal for Duran and a few other pieces from the expiring contracts that is the route I would take.  You can't truly probably ever replace Duran especially as he heads into his prime, but you can probably get close enough.  So I could see moving him for the right deal.  I would hope that it would be enough to move the needle in other areas.

We still have Keaschal, Rodriguez, likely Culpepper and Jenkins not too far away.  The way Gonzalez is hitting he might not be far away.  Guys are coming but we need another elite bat or two to lengthen the lineup.  Not sure how to find those guys, but bottom line this team doesn't feel too far away if they can get a little younger and find more depth I think they can get over the hump.. 

If they collect enough assets maybe they can trade for another young big bat or arm.  With a few lucky breaks I think this team could be at the top again.  I wouldn't go full tear down.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

I wouldn't want to go the total rebuild route.  That is such a long painful thing to get through.  We can see that when healthy this team has the pitching to compete.  The hitting just hasn't been dangerous enough.  If they could get a great deal for Duran and a few other pieces from the expiring contracts that is the route I would take.  You can't truly probably ever replace Duran especially as he heads into his prime, but you can probably get close enough.  So I could see moving him for the right deal.  I would hope that it would be enough to move the needle in other areas.

We still have Keaschal, Rodriguez, likely Culpepper and Jenkins not too far away.  The way Gonzalez is hitting he might not be far away.  Guys are coming but we need another elite bat or two to lengthen the lineup.  Not sure how to find those guys, but bottom line this team doesn't feel too far away if they can get a little younger and find more depth I think they can get over the hump.. 

If they collect enough assets maybe they can trade for another young big bat or arm.  With a few lucky breaks I think this team could be at the top again.  I wouldn't go full tear down.

I wouldn't want to go full rebuild either. But... if we need to do that. I'm just currently not development comfortable with our front office and the moving of Buxton or Correa is just going to create more players that need to be developed. 

I'd hate to trade Duran but you can trade closers because you can make another one. A trade of Duran wouldn't be as earth shaking as dealing Ryan or Buxton who are much harder to come by. 

Keashall, Erod, G Gon, Culpepper, Jenkins. I have high hopes and I hope they get real opportunity. 4 Years ago... It was Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach and Balozovic. 8 Years ago it was Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff.

That's why I love your comment about volume in your post. We are going to need some of those 15th, 22nd, 25th, 27th ranked organizational prospects to work out. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

I agree on setting a bar.  If all teams want to give are lottery tickets or maybe slightly higher it isn't going to help much.  Might as well play things out. Need to be in the top 5 of lists and top 10 of other teams depending on depth of the system.  Need players that at least appear to be difference makers and or at least likely to be contributors. otherwise there isn't much reason to let them go other than saving money.

Lottery tickets pay off sometimes. Expiring contracts doing give then anything.

Everyone should be available at this point that has less than three years of control. 

[Vanimal46]

We’ve seen plenty of games against good teams and the Twins aren’t even close to that level of baseball. Rangers, Astros, Reds, Brewers, Mariners, and Tigers in recent weeks. They’re all better teams than the Twins. 

Pretty obvious what they need to do.