Has Luke Keaschall Surpassed Emmanuel Rodriguez as Minnesota Twins' Second-Best Prospect?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Both are consensus top-100 prospects. However, there is reason to believe Luke Keaschall has jumped Emmanuel Rodriguez as Minnesota's second-best prospect, after two years of Rodriguez being comfortably ensconced in that spot.

Image courtesy of © Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

A little over a month ago, Twins Daily released its Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospect Rankings list. Long-time prospects guru Seth Stohs released his annual blurb synopsizing the inner workings of how the list came about, and what to expect of the top 20 prospects as the impending minor-league season neared. As is true with most publications assessing Minnesota's prospect pool, young position players Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall were ranked first, second, and third, respectively. However, Seth noted in his piece that "approximately 25% of (Twins Daily) voters moved Keaschall ahead of Rodriguez in their rankings."

Now, I am not one to doxx myself, but I, Cody Schoenmann, was one of those writers. On the surface, the fact that 1/4 of Twins Daily writers placed Keaschall ahead of Rodriguez shouldn't be surprising. As Seth noted in his piece, both are consensus top-100 prospects. That said, there is a significant distance between the two on nearly every reputable prospect rankings list. Here are three examples:

• FanGraphs: Rodriguez - 20; Keaschall - 56
• The Athletic: Rodriguez - 21; Keaschall - 62
• Just Baseball: Rodriguez - 19; Keaschall - 42

That's an average 33-spot difference. Unsurprisingly, other publications sport a similar disparity. Local gurus and national writers like Eric Longenhagen, Keith Law, and Aram Leighton agreed Rodriguez was a superior prospect to Keaschall before the 2025 minor-league season began. But could the tide be shifting?

Here's how Rodriguez and Keaschall have performed to begin their 2025 Triple-A campaigns:

• Rodriguez - .235/.381/.294, 42 plate appearances, eight hits, eight walks, zero home runs, 103 wRC+
• Keaschall - .294/.422/.412, 45 plate appearances, 10 hits, eight walks, two home runs, 138 wRC+

These, of course, are small samples. That said, a trend that commenced last season has continued: Keaschall is a substantially better bat-to-ball guy than Rodriguez. If you've been following these two hitters' respective careers in the Twins' farm system, that note won't surprise you, valued reader. Instead of being a plus pure hitter, Rodriguez excels by making hard contact and supernal swing decisions. In the lower minors, he was also largely platoon-proof. It's notable, therefore, that he has struggled against left-handed pitchers in Triple A, with a nightmarish .071/.188/.071 slash line and eight strikeouts over 14 at-bats this season.

Rodriguez has always struck out a lot, but his swing-and-miss concerns have become more amplified with the Saints. He's generating a concerning 37.9% strikeout rate over 72 combined Triple-A at-bats the past two seasons. Like most young hitters, Rodriguez's weaknesses have been exposed by superior pitching, meaning he must make the adjustments necessary to become more than a plus platoon bat.

There's still every reason to believe Rodrigez will become a consistently above-average offensive (and defensive) corner outfielder. Early in his career, he'll even be a capable a center fielder. However, it's Keaschall who now looks more ready to instantly become a plus offensive contributor, should the Twins have need of that. Last season, Keaschall excelled against right- and left-handed pitchers, as evidenced below:

• vs. Left: .281/.416/.404, 113 plate appearances, 25 hits, two home runs, five doubles, 20 walks, 20 strikeouts
• vs. Right: .310/.422/.507, 351 plate appearances, 90 hits, 13 home runs, 16 doubles, 42 walks, 60 strikeouts

The hard-hitting righty has continued that trend this season, slashing .214/.353/.214 against lefties and .350/.464/.550 against righties. Those samples are too small to analyze, but the bigger ones paint the picture: Keaschall can hit regardless of the handedness of his opposing hurler. It's why he's struck out in just 16.9% of his minor-league plate appearances. He looks closer to being ready to hit in the majors. Unfortunately, he has yet to play an entire game in the field this season, as he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery he underwent last August.

Given that Jenkins possesses the potential necessary to become a perennial All-Star, he will remain atop Minnesota's prospects rankings for the foreseeable future. However, Keaschall's ability to thrive offensively and provide defensive versatility gives real weight to the notion that he's surpassed Rodriguez as the organization's second-best prospect—and maybe a top-30 prospect in baseball.

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[Trov]

Keaschall very well may jump E-Rod.  I think on offense he already has.  The fact Keaschall defense home is most likely 2nd or 1st limits his prospect status, in my opinion.  Additionally, being more ready to hit at majors does not make you a better prospect just makes you more ready. 

If E-Rod can adjust to hitting the lefties and not striking out as much at AAA then he will keep that spot, and will get a call later this year.  If though he continues to struggle against lefties and strike out at the rate he is, he will start to fall down the list and fall out of favor.  He will get a chance at some point either way, but his leash will much shorter. 

Many highlighted the risk of this happening as E-Rod moved up the levels facing better pitching.  Hopefully, now he knows adjustments he needs to make and will make them. Hopefully Keachall keeps raking and forces his way up to majors. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I do think Keaschall is ready to help sooner. Excited to have both. The ceiling for Rodriguez is probably higher, but excited to have both.

[DJL44]

Emmanuel Rodriguez has two big factors in his favor

1) He can play defense at a premium position (CF). Keaschall is only playing 2B and DH at the moment.

2) He can play a full game in the field. Keaschall is still being "ramped up" because the physical demands of playing a full 9-inning game are too much for his body.

Keaschall, defensively, is a mix of Julien's glove and Buxton's durability. I really hope that changes as he gets further into the season, but it makes him quite unlikely to help the MLB team right now.

[mikelink45]

I think the question is will Julian sustain what he's doing and if he doesn't Luke will be there. He is obviously the player in waiting and if they slide. Julien to DH. He might come up even earlier. It also depends on Lewis and whether we are keeping Brooks Lee at third phase or moving him back the second. I really like him and I guess I would rank him highest myself and uneven thinking. He's going to push Jenkins if Jenkins continues to have health issues and injury issues. As much as I want. Walker to succeed. I think Luke, despite his injury and surgery, seems to be moving the bar the most of all our prospects. 

[Linus]

It doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is what they do for the Twins. If we were more realistic about prospects we wouldn’t have so many disappointed fans when the “can’t miss” prospect misses. 

[tony&rodney]

Having watched most of the Saints games this year the only fair conclusion one can make as of today is that it is too early in the season to tear apart data and make pronouncements. Both Rodriguez and Keaschall have had good plate appearances and bad. You can add Carson McCusker in here too. They all swing and miss. If a person looks just at the numbers it can be easy to suggest weaknesses or strengths. All three guys look comfortable in the box but are also clearly in need of making adjustments due to their relative lack of experience at AAA. By June or July there may be some patterns emerging, but my opinion is that it is way too early  for judgments on these players. Check back in two months.

[bean5302]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Emmanuel Rodriguez has two big factors in his favor

1) He can play defense at a premium position (CF). Keaschall is only playing 2B and DH at the moment.

2) He can play a full game in the field. Keaschall is still being "ramped up" because the physical demands of playing a full 9-inning game are too much for his body.

Keaschall, defensively, is a mix of Julien's glove and Buxton's durability. I really hope that changes as he gets further into the season, but it makes him quite unlikely to help the MLB team right now.

2B = CF in terms of positional value.

Rodriguez's rank is because his ceiling at the plate is seen as a lot higher than Keaschall's. Keaschall isn't viewed as a big MLB bat, just a potentially good one. I think the big advantage Keaschall will have at the end of the season is legitimate projectability as a viable MLB player. 

I expect Rodriguez will drop off top 100 lists this year when his K rate holds at 40% in AAA and he struggles to produce much above league average in St. Paul.

[jorgenswest]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

2B = CF in terms of positional value.

Rodriguez's rank is because his ceiling at the plate is seen as a lot higher than Keaschall's. Keaschall isn't viewed as a big MLB bat, just a potentially good one. I think the big advantage Keaschall will have at the end of the season is legitimate projectability as a viable MLB player. 

I expect Rodriguez will drop off top 100 lists this year when his K rate holds at 40% in AAA and he struggles to produce much above league average in St. Paul.

Do you think Keaschall will stick at 2B? It is rare for a college second baseman to stick at that position. Virtually all major league 2Bs start as shortstops in the minors. Most that come in as drafted as 2Bs move to a corner like 1B or LF if they have enough bat.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

2B = CF in terms of positional value.

No, 2B is closer to LF than CF in terms of physical tools. It means you can field grounders, but you can't throw. There is a scarcity factor in WAR because you can't have a lefthanded throwing 2B but you can have that in CF.

Regardless, they keep pulling Keaschall off the field before the game is over. If he's promoted to the Twins, who is going to play the last 3 innings of the game for him?

[Omgbenji]

I think this is a slam dunk case. Not only is he a more well-rounded hitter with an impressive strikeout to walk ratio, but he seems much better in HEALTH. And for the Twins org, availability is absolutely the most important ability. I think they should look to trade Rodriguez as soon as he shows promise again. He's such a ripe candidate to flame out.

[thelanges5]

As long as Emma makes some adjustments and Keaschall ramps back to full games from Tommy John they should be pressing Gasper and Keirsey by the all-star break (hopefully sooner)

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

As long as Emma makes some adjustments and Keaschall ramps back to full games from Tommy John they should be pressing Gasper and Keirsey by the all-star break (hopefully sooner)

I think Gasper and Keirsey have those roles because they don't want Rodriguez and Keaschall to sit on the bench and rarely play. They don't care if Gasper or Keirsey rots on the bench for a week without any action. If we see an injury to a starter we will see someone promoted from AAA to take the starter's at-bats; Keirsey and Gasper won't get any additional playing time.

[LambchoP]

I just hope they both stay healthy and play a full season for once. We may see Keaschal if Julien stops hitting and Lee and Castro aren't cutting it. We might see Rodriguez when Buxton or Bader goes down. He is hitting.237 so I do think he needs more time in St Paul. Keaschal is probably closer to being MLB ready, especially offensively.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

No, 2B is closer to LF than CF in terms of physical tools. It means you can field grounders, but you can't throw. There is a scarcity factor in WAR because you can't have a lefthanded throwing 2B but you can have that in CF.

Regardless, they keep pulling Keaschall off the field before the game is over. If he's promoted to the Twins, who is going to play the last 3 innings of the game for him?

They said on the broadcast yesterday that the plan is that the playing time handcuffs are coming off this week.

And the Julien/Buxton comps are pretty over the top. He had Tommy John. Buxton's durability? Really? Come on. And he's a much better defender than Julien. It takes 1 game of watching him in the field to see that. You don't have to be a professional scout to watch the 2 of them field and see that they're very different defenders.

[4twinsJA]

Small sample size and a lot of ABs in challenging conditions so far for both of these players. Maybe wait to make any judgements.

[jkcarew]

The scariest thing with Rodriguez right now is the lack of power at the AAA level. In his first 76 plate appearances, ZERO balls hit over the fence (with one inside-the-park fluke HR).

He ain’t going to be striking out at 15-20% in the majors…it’ll be much closer to 30% (and that’s probably optimistic). Meanwhile, major league pitchers aren’t going to be walking him at high rates if he’s not hitting home runs.

He’s coming with defensive value in the OF it looks like, still, his status as a good prospect is 100% tied to power. And, early on at AAA, he’s really struggling to find any.

[Riverbrian]

Rankings are fun but... in the end... they don't mean much. 

Whoever gets the first call will be dependent on who provides the opening. 

It won't matter if Keaschall is out performing Emma at the moment. 

If an OF goes down. Emma or Martin gets the phone call.

Emma needs to be better than Martin when the call comes. 

Keaschall needs to be better than Miranda when an IF goes down and it still important to keep in mind that Keaschall is not on the 40 man yet.  

 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They said on the broadcast yesterday that the plan is that the playing time handcuffs are coming off this week.

And the Julien/Buxton comps are pretty over the top. He had Tommy John. Buxton's durability? Really? Come on. And he's a much better defender than Julien. It takes 1 game of watching him in the field to see that. You don't have to be a professional scout to watch the 2 of them field and see that they're very different defenders.

It's an exaggeration, but it's a reality check to the people who think Keaschall needs to be promoted yesterday. He's currently a part-time 2B and part-time DH - just like Julien. He's essentially still on injury rehab, though he's doing it at the AAA level. When are the positional handcuffs coming off? When are they going to get him some reps in the outfield where he has to throw at max effort?

[jkcarew]

The defensive concerns here regarding Keaschall are way overblown. He played a lot of SS and OF in the college/amateur ranks. He was an elite wrestler in California. Elite wrestlers are quick, explosive, athletes, with very good feet. And they know how to work, and they know how to navigate pain.

He hasn’t been playing late in games for load management reasons as they ramp him up. He’s been ‘stuck’ at 2B because that’s clearly where they think the current need is.

Don’t know if he’s going to be a great second baseman at the major league level. He ain’t Julien.

.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's an exaggeration, but it's a reality check to the people who think Keaschall needs to be promoted yesterday. He's currently a part-time 2B and part-time DH - just like Julien. He's essentially still on injury rehab, though he's doing it at the AAA level. When are the positional handcuffs coming off? When are they going to get him some reps in the outfield where he has to throw at max effort?

Who says the reason he isn't playing OF is because of the TJS? He's thrown the ball max effort in games multiple times and has likely been throwing max effort in rehab for months. The Twins use their guys in positional ways many people disagree with. Like I disagree with them using Mike Ford at 1B to start nearly every game which pushes Yunior Severino to the OF where he has no business being which plays a role in somebody like Keaschall not being out there.

I don't see a lot of people on this particular thread saying he should be promoted yesterday. And if they disagree with him not being promoted yet I'm pretty sure they could also disagree with him being used for only 7 innings per game.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Rankings are fun but... in the end... they don't mean much. 

Whoever gets the first call will be dependent on who provides the opening. 

It won't matter if Keaschall is out performing Emma at the moment. 

If an OF goes down. Emma or Martin gets the phone call.

Emma needs to be better than Martin when the call comes. 

Keaschall needs to be better than Miranda when an IF goes down and it still important to keep in mind that Keaschall is not on the 40 man yet.  

 

Martin is hurt so Emma better be better than Martin on 1 hammy or he's really not their second best prospect!

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Who says the reason he isn't playing OF is because of the TJS? He's thrown the ball max effort in games multiple times and has likely been throwing max effort in rehab for months. The Twins use their guys in positional ways many people disagree with. Like I disagree with them using Mike Ford at 1B to start nearly every game which pushes Yunior Severino to the OF where he has no business being which plays a role in somebody like Keaschall not being out there.

I don't see a lot of people on this particular thread saying he should be promoted yesterday. And if they disagree with him not being promoted yet I'm pretty sure they could also disagree with him being used for only 7 innings per game.

I really hope they aren't putting Keaschall at DH because they think he's worse in the OF than Yunior Severino.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I really hope they aren't putting Keaschall at DH because they think he's worse in the OF than Yunior Severino.

The not playing full games and DHing every other game was their way of extending spring training for a couple weeks for him. As I said, they said on the broadcast yesterday the plan is to take those handcuffs off this week. Take that however you want.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

49 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Rankings are fun but... in the end... they don't mean much. 

Whoever gets the first call will be dependent on who provides the opening. 

It won't matter if Keaschall is out performing Emma at the moment. 

If an OF goes down. Emma or Martin gets the phone call.

Emma needs to be better than Martin when the call comes. 

Keaschall needs to be better than Miranda when an IF goes down and it still important to keep in mind that Keaschall is not on the 40 man yet.  

 

Indeed.  Their respective rankings are a distinction without a difference.  Neither has done enough this year to make a big move in the list and the personnel situation is what will actually determine who gets the opportunity first.  In either case, let’s not attach unrealistic expectations to prospects.  They may come up and do well, or not, but this process takes time.  

[jorgenswest]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Who says the reason he isn't playing OF is because of the TJS?

Jeremy Zoll on Inside Twins yesterday. He will progress to back to back at second and eventually progress to the outfield where he says the arm action is different.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Martin is hurt so Emma better be better than Martin on 1 hammy or he's really not their second best prospect!

Well... then yeah... It would be really questionable to call up a guy only to put him immediately on the IL. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Jeremy Zoll on Inside Twins yesterday. He will progress to back to back at second and eventually progress to the outfield where he says the arm action is different.

So, he's still on injury rehab and we shouldn't expect to see him in the big leagues until that's done. My guess is that will take several weeks.

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Well... then yeah... It would be really questionable to call up a guy only to put him immediately on the IL. 

So you think this will happen?

JK

The Twins make some odd moves. Blewett was a pretty serviceable #8 guy for the bullpen and he proved it. The Twins were not in dire need of an arm but Blewett is gone now. I guess one can say this is unimportant and business as usual .... a parade of #8 arms will follow. Blewett was a good name to have on the team.

Back to the young bucks - check back at the end of April at the soonest. 

[bean5302]

 

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

The defensive concerns here regarding Keaschall are way overblown. He played a lot of SS and OF in the college/amateur ranks...

.

Miguel Sano played SS for the Twins at both Rookie Ball levels. Doesn't mean that's relevant. Keachall had been panned as an outright poor defender with scouting reports similar to Edouard Julien. Fangraphs improved their opinion of Keaschall's defense last year to basically serviceable.

If you like Mickey Gasper and Eddie Julien at 2B, you'll probably be okay with Keaschall is how it reads to me.