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    The 2025 Twins Daily Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospect Rankings


    Seth Stohs

    As minor-league spring training officially kicks off, check out the official Twins Daily Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospect rankings. 

    Image courtesy of William Parmeter (Top L to R: Dasan Hill, Luke Keaschall, Charlee Soto, Walker Jenkins; Bottom L to R: Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Kala'i Rosario)

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    At the beginning of the offseason, we ran our Top 20 Twins prospect rankings. We did very early, in large part, because we thought there was some chance that the Twins could be active in the trade market. There was a thought at that point that they wanted to trade off some salary, and if that could be done, they might be in line to trade for high-level pitching. 

     

    Fast-forward about four months, and the only trade the Twins made was a Christmas Eve deal which sent lefty Jovani Moran to the Red Sox for utility man Mickey Gasper. Gasper is a 29-year-old with just 70 games played in Triple-A, and a 13-game big-league stint. Then in early January, the Twins acquired Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers for DSL right-hander Jose Vasquez

    For the first time since 2017, the Twins made a selection in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. They picked right-handed pitcher Eiberson Castellano from the Phillies organization. 

    One more bit of information before jumping into the Twins Daily 2025 Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospect Rankings. There has been a bit of confusion as to whether or not right-handed pitcher Zebby Matthews meets “prospect” requirements. We use MLB’s rookie requirements as our limits for prospect status. 

    As a reminder, hitters must have fewer than 130 at-bats to remain prospect-eligible. For pitchers, they must have fewer than 50 innings pitched. Matthews threw 37 2/3 innings for the Twins in 2024. The third criteria is that the player must have fewer than 45 days of service time. Matthews has 48 days of MLB service time. So therefore, he is not “prospect-eligible.” However, when I reached out to Twins Daily writers to vote, Baseball-Reference said that he was under the rookie limits. Of course, as I look at it today, it has been changed to “Exceeded rookie limits during 2024 season.” 

    With that, let’s get to our rankings. But first, don’t forget that the current Twins Daily Top 20 Twins can always be found at this link. No only can you see the rankings, but you will be able to see more information on that player, find a listing of all articles and videos that each player has been tagged in on this site. You may want to bookmark that site. 

    The Twins Daily Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects 
    If you click on the link of the player’s name here, it will take you to their prospect page or to a page showing the search results of articles they’ve been tagged in. 

    #1: OF Walker Jenkins (20) - The fifth overall pick in the 2023 draft is now a Top 5 prospect in the game of baseball. He played 33 games at Low-A Fort Myers and 34 games at High-A Cedar Rapids last year before ending the season with a week at Double-A Wichita. Size, strength, and speed, Jenkins is on a fast track and is a true five-tool talent. 

    #2: OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (22) - It was a rough, injury-plagued season for Rodriguez. Hand and wrist injuries meant he was only able to play in 37 games at Wichita. In that time, he hit .298/.479/.621 (1.100) with 12 doubles, two triples and eight home runs. He played in seven games for the Saints before his season came to an end with another wrist injury. Unfortunately, he sprained his ankle in mid-February and hasn’t seen game action yet. If healthy, the Top 40 global prospect should debut in 2025 and display his immense talent and skills. 

    #3: 1B/2B/CF Luke Keaschall (22) - Didn’t play after August 8th so that he could finally have Tommy John surgery, but showed enough to be the Twins minor league player of the year. He showed that he could hit for average, get on base, and slug, doubles and home runs. He’s got good speed too. Seemingly came out of nowhere to be a consensus Top 100 prospect. 

    #4: RHP Charlee Soto (19) - So young by age, but Soto has a grown up body. He’s already 6-4 and certainly over the 210 pounds he’s listed at. He uses his strong legs for leverage and a strong arm to reach back and fire fastballs near (and frequently above) 100 mph. He’s working on the secondary pitches and consistency, but the stuff and work ethic are there. 

    #5: RHP Andrew Morris (23) - Morris’s career appears to be about six weeks behind Zebby Matthews. Both started the 2024 season with seven starts at High-A and ended the year with seven starts at Triple-A. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, a sharp slider, and a quality changeup. Most years, he would have run away with the Twins minor league pitcher of the year awards. He’s close to big-league ready. When will he get that opportunity? 

    #6: RHP Marco Raya (22) - A leg injury has slowed Raya’s progress in his first big-league camp this spring, but people are rightfully excited about his potential. What role will he have? Last year, he made 25 starts and reached 97 2/3 innings. The team limited him to three or four innings for most of the season. He ended the season with five shutout innings for the Saints. Will he start? Will he be a guy that the Twins bring in for three or four innings at a time. With his fastball and slider, he’s got a chance to be an impact arm in whichever role. 

    #7: SS Kaelen Culpepper (22) - The Twins top pick in 2024 out of Kansas State University made his professional debut with nine games at Fort Myers and 17 games at Cedar Rapids. I believe Culpepper is a really nice combination of high floor prospect with a fairly high ceiling as well. He is a good athlete that can hit for average and gets on base well. There is potential to add some power and steal more bases while playing strong defense. 

    #8: SS/CF Brandon Winokur (20) - The 6’-6” Winokur is one of the top two or three athletes in the Twins system. Offensively, he hit .249/.327/.434 (.761) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 14 home runs. He also had 23 stolen bases. He was two years younger than the average hitter in FSL. The average hitter in the league hit just .229/.332/.347 (.679). Winokur was about 11% better than the average hitter while playing a quality shortstop and center field. It’s exciting to see what happens as he continues to gain strength. 

    #9: RHP Cory Lewis (24) - While Lewis may not reach into the upper 90s with his fastball, he is generally in the low-90s with sharp secondary pitches. And, everyone talks about the knuckleball, and for good reason. He throws it into the mid-80s with very little spin. It almost acts like a changeup, but a changeup that bounces all over. Another starting pitcher who reached Triple-A by season’s end in 2024. Like Morris (and Matthews, Festa, Raya, MacLeod, etc), Lewis is close, just needs to keep working, and make himself as ready as possible when the call comes. 

    #10: LHP Connor Prielipp (24) - The Wisconsin native was the Twins second round pick in 2022 out of Alabama knowing he had Tommy John surgery in 2021. Over the past two seasons, he has pitched a combined 30 innings. However, he is back this spring, showing a fastball at 98 and a slider at 93-94, and we are all hoping!!

    #11: LHP Dasan Hill (19) - In the second round of the 2024 draft, the Twins went with another left-handed pitcher, Dasan Hill from Grapevine, Texas. At 6’-5” and (maybe) 165 pounds, he has the potential to grow into his body and add velocity. That’s pretty exciting when you consider he’s already hitting 100 in bullpens. He will make his pro debut in 2025, presumably with the Mighty Mussels. 

    #12: RHP CJ Culpepper (23) - The Twins have signed several pitchers out of Cal Baptist the past few years, but Culpepper has the highest upside. A mid-90s fastball is one of his six pitches that he is comfortable using at any time. He missed time with some arm issues but was able to return each time and even moved up to Double-A late in the season. 

    #13: IF Kyle DeBarge (21) - He has been the starting shortstop at Louisiana-Lafayette. In his three seasons, his OPS jumped from .750 to .994 to a gaudy 1.117 in 2024. Don’t be fooled by his 5’-9” height, he had 43 extra base hits  including 21 home runs. The Twins used their bonus pick for losing Sonny Gray in free agency to select him. He debuted with 26 games with the Mighty Mussels last year where he had 15 stolen bases. 

    #14: OF Eduardo Beltre (18) - Every year, teams sign a whole bunch of 16-17 year olds and then try really hard to develop them. The Twins gave Beltre a seven-figure signing bonus in January of 2024, and when the DSL season began, he came out hitting. In 44 games, he hit .326/.453/.618 (1.071) with nine doubles and 11 home runs. He had 10 stolen bases and played all three outfield positions. Should come to the States and play in the FCL in 2025. 

    #15: OF Yasser Mercedes (20) - Mercedes was a seven-figure bonus guy from the Dominican in 2022. He also had a big pro debut in the DSL (.975 OPS). He came to the States in 2023, but he had an injury that affected him throughout the season. In 2024, he went back to the FCL and dominated, hitting .331/.421/.568 (.989) with 18 doubles and six homers. He stole 18 bags. He struggled in 10 Mighty Mussels games after the FCL season, but that shouldn’t diminish the excitement surrounding this talented player. 

    #16: IF Rayne Doncon (21) - It was about this time last year that Doncon came to the Twins from the Dodgers organization with Manuel Margot in exchange for shortstop Noah Miller. He played well in the rookie leagues before struggling in his first full-season in 2023. He played in 38 games for Fort Myers and hit .283 (.838) with 13 doubles and four homers. He finished the season with 56 games in Cedar Rapids where he hit .235 (.730) with 11 doubles, three triples, and seven home runs. He is an impressive athlete with size and speed and the world of potential. 

    #17: RHP Eiberson Castellano (23) - The Twins Rule 5 pick in December, we have seen him throw a couple of times this spring. We have seen him hit 94-96 with a fastball and he’s got a very impressive breaking ball. No question the Twins would love to keep him in the organization, but can they afford to keep him on the big-league roster all season? He split 2024 between High-A and Double-A Reading. In 103 2/3 innings, he walked 29 and had 136 strikeouts.  

    #18: IF Billy Amick (22) - Amick was the 60th overall pick in the 2024 draft out of the University of Tennessee where he hit .306/.387/.639 (1.026) with 14 doubles and 23 homers. He had spent two seasons at Clemson. As a sophomore, he hit .413/.464/.773 (1.236) with 17 doubles and 13 homers. He’s a masher who will need to find a corner infield position. Huge power potential. 

    #19: OF Kala’i Rosario (22) - After winning Midwest League MVP and a championship in Cedar Rapids in 2023, Rosario displayed his power in the Arizona Fall League. He moved up to Wichita in 2024. Unfortunately, an elbow injury cost him over two months of his season, so he did return to the Fall League. Left off of the 40-man roster, Rosario will look to remain healthy and continue to show the power that has made him an intriguing prospect. 

    #20: OF Gabriel Gonzalez (20) - Gonzalez was one of four players that the Twins received last spring from the Mariners for Jorge Polanco. Just 20, he began the 2024 season with the Kernels. He didn’t show the power in games that he is touted to have, but he more than held his own despite being more then two-and-a-half years younger than the league average. He also missed a couple of months in Fort Myers rehabbing a back injury. 2025 will be an opportunity for him to reclaim his prospect status if he can remain healthy. 

    So there you have it, the official Twins Daily 2025 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings. Below are some additional thoughts from looking at the voting, rankings, and such. 

    Next Up?
    Should one of the Top 20 Twins prospects be unable to accept the duties and responsibilities of a Top 20 Twins Prospect, or graduates from 'prospect-dom,' the #21 prospect by our vote was catcher Ricardo Olivar. Over the past two seasons, Olivar has consistently ranked in the 16-22 range. He spent most of the 2024 season in Cedar Rapids before ending the year with a few weeks in Wichita. 

    The Next 10
    So, you know the rankings of our top 21 Twins prospects. I think it’s fun and interesting to see which minor league prospects were next in line, and that group is really interesting as well. Instead of stopping at #30, we’ll give you 10 more names and you’ll have the names of our Top 30 Twins prospects. However, just to keep you on your toes, I’ll just give you the names of prospects 22-31 in alphabetical order.

    RHP Travis Adams (25) - Sixth round pick in 2021 from Sacramento State, Adams finished the 2024 season with the Saints. Then in November, he was added to the team’s 40-man roster. 
    RHP Adrian Bohorquez (20) - The young flamethrower just turned 20 on Monday. So young, and so much to work on, but he’s got a strong frame and an upper-90s fastball as a starting point.
    RHP Matt Canterino (27) - What we wouldn’t give to see this former second-round pick get one healthy year. We held out hope. After one outing this spring, he has been shut down with shoulder discomfort. Still no questioning the talent or the work ethic. 
    C Diego Cartaya (23) - The Twins acquired Cartaya from the Dodgers last month when he was DFAd. Before the 2022 and 2023, he was a top 30 prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. While his bat has slowed since hitting Double-A, he remains strong behind the plate and he’s still got some pop. 
    1B/3B Rubel Cespedes (24) - Strong left-handed bat with a lot of power, Cespedes had a big season in Cedar Rapids in 2024.
    SS Danny De Andrade (20) - De Andrade got the big signing bonus and moved up one level every year, more than holding his own. Unfortunately, an ankle injury caused him to play just 29 games. Strong bat and defense. If healthy, should fly back toward the Top 10. 
    SS Daiber De Los Santos (18) - Like Beltre, De Los Santos got a big bonus and came up big in his pro debut in the DSL. In 48 games, he hit .301/.384/.460 (.844) with 11 doubles, five homers and 17 steals.  
    IF Payton Eeles (25) - He was the minor-league story of the year in 2025. Non-drafted, the Twins signed him in April and he went to Fort Myers. Soon after, he got a chance in Cedar Rapids. Then the Saints needed a roster spot filled. Payton Eeles went up to the Saints and not only stayed there the rest of the year, but played almost every game, often playing shortstop at leading off. Will he get a big-league shot in 2025?
    OF DaShawn Keirsey (27) - A fourth-round pick in 2018, Keirsey has remained healthy the past three seasons and has been terrific, filling the box score and stat lines. Can hit for average, uses the whole field, knows the strike zone, surprising power, incredible defense, range and arm. Finally got a big-league opportunity in September. Can definitely play in the big leagues.
    IF Tanner Schobel (23) - The Twins second round pick in 2022 from Virginia Tech spent the full season in Wichita and struggled. He hit just .211, though he had 20 doubles and 10 homers. Played mostly third base. 

    Top 3 Remain the Same, but… 
    No surprise. The top three prospects didn’t change. Walker Jenkins is the top guy, followed by Emmanuel Rodriguez and then Luke Keaschall. However, it should be noted that approximately 25% of our voters moved Keaschall ahead of Rodriguez in their rankings. Ultimately, that’s not terribly important, and all three of those guys are Top 100 global prospects with a chance to contribute to the Twins, maybe in 2025, but certainly down the line. 

    The Value of a Twins Player Development Tweet
    The reality is that unless you not only go down to Fort Myers and hang out on the back fields, but also sit close enough to the radar gun, it’s hard to know what’s going on and who is looking good. Thankfully, we get the occasional “Tweet” from the Twins Player Development account to give us a look. In my opinion, a couple of tweets really helped the prospect rankings of both Connor Prielipp and Dasan Hill. 

    Quick note if any Twins Player Development twitter account managers see this… Thank you, and More, Please. 

    The Pitching Pipeline is Real
    Since Derek Falvey took over, the dream for Twins fans was that he would develop a pitching pipeline that could measure up to what he helped build in Cleveland. As expected, especially when there was a fully lost season in 2020, it took time. They brought in good coaches and coordinators. They spent money on all the equipment and technology. There was great communication between the player development group and the scouting department. 

     

    We had some hope in 2019 when Randy Dobnak went from independent ball to legit, quality starting pitcher in 2019 and 2020. The fact that he became that is a credit to Dobnak and the pitcher development staff. And there is no way of knowing, but if not for the finger injuries that lingered for three seasons, that storyline could have been vastly different in recent years. 

    I think that Bailey Ober exemplifies the Twins Pitcher Development more than anyone else. They worked with him with all the analytics and video and came up with a plan that not only got him to the big leagues, but he has become a Top 30 starter in the game. Joe Ryan was a good, one-pitch pitcher when they acquired him from the Rays. He has remade himself with quality secondary pitches to go with his fastball and command. 

    Louis Varland and David Festa were low-90s fastball guys in college, drafted on Day 3 of their respective drafts. Both are upper-90s pitchers with a chance to be huge contributors. Zebby Matthews was an eight-round pick. Andrew Morris was a fifth-round pick with one year of Division I competition after three seasons of Division II. And there are more names that we know will be much more well known by more fans by the end of the season? Ty Langenberg comes to mind, but don’t forget about Kyle Jones or Tanner Hall or Spencer Bengard

    Honestly, it’s to the point where, if the Twins draft a pitcher in the 20th round of the draft, there is a chance that he could add five or six mph to their fastball and sharpen a secondary pitch and contribute in the big leagues down the road. That’s a great feeling to a Twins fan. I don’t know if that has ever been the case. 

    What are your thoughts on the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins prospects for 2025? What jumps out?


    Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!

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    For so many years the Twins had impressive hitters but so few "quality" pitchers. They had to basically out score everyone. Now the roles seem to be reversed a bit. Now it seems they have really good pitchers with questionable run scoring ability.

    I'm just happy that we've passed the days when the team needs to bring up a player and we find ourselves saying "Who is Andrew Albers?"  James Beresford, Ryan O'Rourke, Logan Darnell, But actually guys who can be expected to contribute.  On a similar note, Michael Tonkin made his MLB debut a month before Andrew Albers.

     

    I really like the top three - and I am delighted to see the number of pitchers ranked this high - hopefully because they are that good and not because we ran out of position players to rank.

    Of course that is not true - I have been touting DeShawn Keirsey for the last two years and hope the Twins actually let him be in MLB with us or with another team - Wade, Rooker, Gil, Wells, and Cano would welcome another Twin prospect to the big leagues.  Sometimes it just takes another opportunity.

    And that brings up my most underrated - Eeles.  I would have him competing for 2B this year - I love the Altuve/Pedroia vibe he brings to the game.

    Twins have done a nice job adding velo and developing young pitchers. Now if we could just find a way to keep them healthy we'd be golden. On the hitters side, I also would like to see Eeles getting big league reps at 2b this spring. If he hits like he did last year he could be a great spark plug at the top of our lineup. As much as I like Wallner and his power potential, I do not like him as a leadoff hitter. He strikes out way too much.

    Usually I love to read lists like this.  But with this organisation, I’m finding it less worthwhile to invest in the hype.

    It looks like the pendulum has shifted toward pitching. That’s probably a positive because a) good pitching beats good hitting and b) it’s probably easier, at least for the Twins, to transition from the minors to the majors as a pitcher than a position player.  Or said another way, it’s harder for Rocco to screw up a pitching prospect.

    I’m just waiting for the article about when one of our position player prospects, or, for that matter, any one we even trade a prospect for, makes an all star team (congrats to Rooker, btw).   Heck, even one who just becomes an average everyday starter playing 150 games, isn’t platooned, or signs a decent second contract would be good enough. Has anyone brought up under Rocco ever achieved that? Jeffers would be the closest.

    Until then, at least with Rocco at the helm, I’ll save investing my emotional and time sports team capital for other things besides the constant hyping of the likes of Jenkins, ERod, and Keaschall.  I’ve wasted enough of that capital only to watch our supposed “young core” wither after they most deservedly get promoted to the show.

    I guess Falvey’s hope is that I invest that capital each year in his one year veteran reclamation projects who steal innings and ABs from all those prospects who have been hyped, and really rightfully so when we all think about it.  What’s the saying? “Fool me a dozen times shame on you. Fool me any more, shame on me.”

    I like that the Twins are spending money on resources and technology for player development.  This in the long run seems to me to be a smarter way to spend money than throwing a lot at over priced 30 something free agents.

    No real surprises for me. Been looking at the list since last year and now just need to wait a bit longer to see who performs this year and who flames out.  

    I think Eeles could be in the top ten as his AAA line was as good as Lee's and Lee was a top 100 prospect.  Eeles has all the good stuff you want in a hitter.  Good contact rate, excellent plate discipline, good speed.  The only thing he lacks is power but he has the man muscles to turn on a pitch when he wants to and push it out. 

    I get that he was old for those earlier levels and he has a small sample size of at bats at all levels last year, so I get him being ranked in the 20's.  Still I could see him being ranked higher as well as I think his potential puts him there.

    Speaking of Lee - Did you watch the game vs. the Yankees on ESPN yesterday.? Does he not appear to be of more muscular build?? He took a pitch out of the park with a very short and compact swing....Looks stronger. The Twins lineup bashed 4 Homers total. The rather muted batting lineup looked pretty comfortable against Cole. Is this reflective of the new hitting approach?? 

    39 minutes ago, Dman said:

    I think Eeles could be in the top ten as his AAA line was as good as Lee's and Lee was a top 100 prospect.  Eeles has all the good stuff you want in a hitter.  Good contact rate, excellent plate discipline, good speed.  The only thing he lacks is power but he has the man muscles to turn on a pitch when he wants to and push it out. 

    Prospect Rankings are basically just fun, silly exercises. Outside of THE top guys its mostly just hype. And I'm not even saying the top 3 here. Walker Jenkins is the only prospect anyone should actually expect true value from. The idea that the MLB #37 prospect with a K rate to match is for sure going to come up and be an impact player is obviously a ridiculous assertion. There's a very decent chance Eeles has a better career than Rodriguez. Which isn't to say I expect Rodriguez to fail, I'm just really tempering my expectations. 

    Just compare Eeles to Austin Martin. Martin was the TwinsDaily #6 prospect last year. Why? The same age and and looks like the same defensive caliber. It wasn't that his performance in the minors was more impressive. You can make a very good argument that Eeles short time in the minors was far more impressive than anything Martin has showed. It's based purely on his high draft position and the fact that people WANTED him to be good because he was the main piece in a big trade. 

     

    25 minutes ago, madtowntwin said:

    Speaking of Lee - Did you watch the game vs. the Yankees on ESPN yesterday.? Does he not appear to be of more muscular build?? He took a pitch out of the park with a very short and compact swing....Looks stronger. The Twins lineup bashed 4 Homers total. The rather muted batting lineup looked pretty comfortable against Cole. Is this reflective of the new hitting approach?? 

    Early in the game the wind was blowing hard out to RF. That park is like Yankee stadium in that it has a fairly short RF. Some of those bombs would have been gone anyway, but I think a couple of them were really wind aided,

    You know how I love these discussions, Seth.  Thanks!

    I can't believe my eyes when reading about the pitchers on the verge of helping the Twins.  What a fantastic change from back when I was doing this with you.  Go Twins!

    We can only hope that top row is the Twins version of Blake Snell, Bobby Witt, Jr., Sandy Alcantara and Mike Trout. 

    I mean they at least look the parts, don't they? 😄

    I'll put this "spring hope" strain down now.

    #33-C) Michael Carpenter. 20 year old LHP taken out of HS (Menominee Falls, Wi)  in the 11th round of the 2024 Draft. Touching mid 90s with his fastball and nice arsenal of secondary pitches. I know, my Wisconsin Bias is showing again...Win Twins. 

    Oh, and Joe Ryan looked pretty damn good yesterday against a fairly stacked lineup. I concur with the windy conditions at the park mentioned above. Having said that - Joe kept 'em all on the field!!

    I was surprised to see Lewis at #9, but then scanning the rest of the list, I get it. Feels like there is a big drop-off after the top 8. Part of this is because of the number of prospects who graduated (or flunked out) last year. I am tempted to say the farm system looks weak on talent, but there are ebbs and flows. 

    Not a criticism, just an observation.

    With all of these players we dream big. I assume they do as well.

    The hitters will all be high OPS (triple crown potential in my old guy language) with gold glove level defense. The pitchers will be workhorse starters (now 150 innings instead of the old 200-250) who give you a handful of complete games per year. Those who end up in either category are now fewer and further between. That is the new reality for all of these prospects.

    The old idea of “if he can hit, we will find a place for him” is a lot less accurate today. Julien, Miranda, and France are current examples of players on the fringe who are minimized by their defensive shortcomings. Severino has never gotten a look, probably due to his DH only status. Some of the prospects have a steeper hill to climb for this same reason. Amick and Rosario are examples.  I am sure there are others, it is just that any defensive info is pretty hard to come by. The first hurdle is hitting. If you can’t hit you can’t make it, unless you happen to be a superior defensive player at a premium position (catcher, SS, CF), and even that doesn’t guarantee anything (hello DeShawn Keirsey). Versatility is now a key. Can a player fill multiple roles adequately, even if none of them are above average. Castro and Martin will probably both be on the opening day roster although neither has shown enough to be a regular at any one position. So although the main info reported on all of the hitters is a stat line, the real determinate for where their career goes for most of them will be how they develop defensively over the next 3-5 years.

    Pitchers dream of starting. The reality is that every team has close to twice as many relievers as starters, and almost all of the relievers began as starters. We are seeing that play out now in the career of Louis Varland.

    And finally, as all Twins fans know, the biggest variable for all of them is health.

    So I will gladly dream of Walker Jenkins waltzing into the HOF, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall making multiple ASG appearances, and any number of outputs from the pitching pipeline battling for Cy Youngs or Firemen of the Year awards going forward.  I will also firmly believe that Brandon Winokur will surprise everyone and become the “high OPS (triple crown potential in my old guy language) with gold glove level defense” star. I also know that 5 years from now we won’t recognize but a handful of the names on this top 30 list.

    I love following the minor leagues!!!

    3 hours ago, rdehring said:

    You know how I love these discussions, Seth.  Thanks!

    I can't believe my eyes when reading about the pitchers on the verge of helping the Twins.  What a fantastic change from back when I was doing this with you.  Go Twins!

    Those were the days, my friend. Was always fun talking prospects, and I remember you putting some equations to your rankings, and to me, these are just always fun. 

    3 hours ago, madtowntwin said:

    #33-C) Michael Carpenter. 20 year old LHP taken out of HS (Menominee Falls, Wi)  in the 11th round of the 2024 Draft. Touching mid 90s with his fastball and nice arsenal of secondary pitches. I know, my Wisconsin Bias is showing again...Win Twins. 

    Oh, and Joe Ryan looked pretty damn good yesterday against a fairly stacked lineup. I concur with the windy conditions at the park mentioned above. Having said that - Joe kept 'em all on the field!!

    I didn't even have to look to know that @rdehring was going to like this comment. You Wisconsin guys!! Hey, you've got Carpenter and Prielipp. That is a pretty nice set of lefties!! 

    3 hours ago, Danchat said:

    I was surprised to see Lewis at #9, but then scanning the rest of the list, I get it. Feels like there is a big drop-off after the top 8. Part of this is because of the number of prospects who graduated (or flunked out) last year. I am tempted to say the farm system looks weak on talent, but there are ebbs and flows. 

    Not to get into my personal rankings too much, but I felt there was a split between 9 and 10 and then another right around 18/19... 

    2 hours ago, Elliot said:

    Not a criticism, just an observation.

    With all of these players we dream big. I assume they do as well.

    The hitters will all be high OPS (triple crown potential in my old guy language) with gold glove level defense. The pitchers will be workhorse starters (now 150 innings instead of the old 200-250) who give you a handful of complete games per year. Those who end up in either category are now fewer and further between. That is the new reality for all of these prospects.

    The old idea of “if he can hit, we will find a place for him” is a lot less accurate today. Julien, Miranda, and France are current examples of players on the fringe who are minimized by their defensive shortcomings. Severino has never gotten a look, probably due to his DH only status. Some of the prospects have a steeper hill to climb for this same reason. Amick and Rosario are examples. 

    I'm with all of this. I've been doing prospect rankings and analysis for 20+ years. Rankings are fun, and they're for discussion, and for me, it's about getting their names out there too. I like to think I've improved my 'valuation' of prospects and I certainly understand how difficult it is to not only get to the big leagues but to stay there. Catcher was always a position of attrition with injuries, but that's really the same for position players and pitchers alike. And, the game is hard and those in the big leagues are crazy good. 

    And yes, defense is absolutely valued and considered in rankings, or at least they should be. I would guess that most consider it now, even if many don't have the ability to actually see the players. I'll always look at a player's athleticism and have more patience with better athletes knowing they may have some versatility. So much thought goes into the rankings for something we all acknowledge just kind of is what it is. 

    19 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

    Not to get into my personal rankings too much, but I felt there was a split between 9 and 10 and then another right around 18/19... 

    When I looked at these, Seth, I thought that 9-10, Prielipp and Hill could have been higher.  Can't recall the Twins ever having three lefties with the potential Prielipp, Hill and Carpenter have.  One gets a feeling that either Prielipp or Hill could develop into something like Liriano was.  Based on what I read about Carpenter, seems like he would be more of a left-handed Radke.  Hopefully, one of them makes it as I can't recall the last good leftie starter the Twins had.  Was it Liriano?

    1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

    I'm with all of this. I've been doing prospect rankings and analysis for 20+ years. Rankings are fun, and they're for discussion, and for me, it's about getting their names out there too. I like to think I've improved my 'valuation' of prospects and I certainly understand how difficult it is to not only get to the big leagues but to stay there. Catcher was always a position of attrition with injuries, but that's really the same for position players and pitchers alike. And, the game is hard and those in the big leagues are crazy good. 

    And yes, defense is absolutely valued and considered in rankings, or at least they should be. I would guess that most consider it now, even if many don't have the ability to actually see the players. I'll always look at a player's athleticism and have more patience with better athletes knowing they may have some versatility. So much thought goes into the rankings for something we all acknowledge just kind of is what it is. 

    Thanks for the work that goes into these rankings. Full disclosure, my comment about the 2020 prospects was sort of an afterthought. After checking, it probably applies to 2015 or 10 years ago. . It looks like as many as 8 of 2020’s list will make this year’s opening day roster. 

    Stats from players at AA last year. Leader in bold.
    #5 - a23 - AA - 9.19 K/9 (25.2%), 2.04 BB/9 (5.6%), 41.9% GB, 1.90 ERA2.36 FIP, 3.33 xFIP (Morris)
    #6 - a21 - AA - 9.62 K/9 (24.8%), 4.27 BB/9 (11.0%), 41.8% GB, 4.27 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.06 xFIP (Raya)
    #9 - a23 - AA - 10.91 K/9(28.8%), 4.64 BB/9(12.2%), 36.9% GB, 2.59 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 3.92 xFIP (Lewis)
    #12 - a22 - AA - 9.00 K/9 (23.3%), 3.00 BB/9 (7.8%), 39.0% GB, 4.71 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (Culpepper)
    #17 - a23 - AA - 11.16 K/9 (30.9%), 2.01 BB/9 (5.6%), 47.9% GB, 3.79 ERA3.55 FIP, 3.08 xFIP (Castellano)
    >20 - a24 - AA - 9.08 K/9 (24.5%), 2.33 BB/9 (6.3%), 42.5% GB, 3.67 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP (Adams)

     

    Great article Seth (as always).  It's always fun to see how our top minor league prospects are ranked.  It's like playing Russian Roulette to try to determine which ones should be held on to and which ones could be leveraged in a trade to improve the big league club.

    Brandon Warne from Puckett's Pond just wrote about a guy I've been trying to trade for from the Marlins for what seems to be forever.  His trade is far too much of an overpay based on Baseball Trade Values.  I realize BBTV is not everyone's favorite, and I currently don't pay for the right to post trades or look at player values, but I take notes when I look at proposed trades and my values and very close to current.

    That player is 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.  The Marlins are reportedly open to trading him.  When we acquired Pablo Lopez there was no question that Alcantara was (and still is) considered the Ace of the Marlins pitching staff.

    Alcantara's contract is a bargain in the current market based on his pedigree and he's looked VERY GOOD in 3 outings so far in spring training.  He appears fully recovered from Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss a portion of 2023 and all of last season.  He is due $17.3 million in 2025, $17.3 million in 2026 and has a TEAM option for $21 million for 2027 (with a $2 million dollar buyout).  His value on BBTV is 48.3.

    Brandon Warne feels an overpay would be needed to acquire him.  Opinions are split whether the Marlins would trade him right now, before teams break camp, or if the trade would come later at the deadline.  After the Marlins ask for Walker Jenkins and we say "No" he says the Marlins will move on to asking for Emmanuel Rodriguez.  E-Rod's value is 44.4 so a one for one swap would be possible with the Twins maybe throwing in Gabe Gonzalez at 3.1.

    But Warne's deal has the Twins also adding Zebby Matthews 16.0 and Jose Miranda 16.2.  That would be 4 for 1 with the Twins sending about 79.7 in value for the 48.3 for Alcantara.  Even for a healthy Alcantara at 3 years of team control at bargain prices for a pitcher of his talent that's just too rich.

    My deal would be SWR 19.9  Jose Miranda 16.2  Eddie Julien 16.5 (52.60 value) for Alcantara 48.3.

    The Marlins have made a lot of deals in recent years for very promising but very young talent that was not close to playing in the major leagues.  My deal gives Miami a young SP to replace Alcantara as well as a 1B/3B (Miranda) and 2B/1B (Julien) that have already logged time in the Majors.  

    It is the overpay that Warne claims will be needed to get Alcantara but nearly as one sided as his.  

    Alcantara would be a tremendous acquisition.  Yes, we probably need offense more, but for the Twins to not just contend but to make some noise in the playoffs PITCHING is what wins in the post season.  Imagine a rotation of Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Festa/Paddack.  With a BP lead by Duran & Jax the Twins would be tough to score on.  And it would solidify the rotation for 3 years.  In that time, Festa could emerge and the cupboard is well stocked with Matthews, Morris, Raya and Prielipp. 

    One other key to the Twins in 2025 and going forward:  Correa, Buxton and Lewis, healthy and producing.  Throw in Wallner, Larnach and Jeffers and the potential is there for a good offense. 

    At some point, we will see new ownership for the Twins.  But Warne wrote that he feels Falvey has the freedom to make a blockbuster like this and add Alcantara's $17.3 million dollar salary.  It's possible that Miami would rather have Zebby Matthews in place of Julien or Miranda.  To get Alcantara to anchor our rotation at his price for the next 3 years, I'd agree to that because the cupboard is NOT bare with minor league arms available behind Festa to shore up the #5 spot in the rotation.

    It's pretty clear to me that Rocco looks very predisposed to have Ty France at 1B.  And France is swinging a good bat so far in camp.  With Keaschall on the way soon and able to play 2B or 1B we can afford to move on from either Miranda or Julien...or both.

    We could add Alcantara to the top of our rotation without moving E-Rod, Larnach, Wallner or Brooks Lee.  We would have to part with 3 of SWR, Matthews, Julien or Miranda.  With guys in our minor leagues moving up the ladder I could live with a package of 3 of those guys for Alcantara.  

    Me being me, I could easily ramble to a post as long as Seth's, but I'm going to TRY to abbreviate my thoughts as best I can. LOL!

    1] I don't want to curse anything, and it's been over 30yr ago and an entirely different way of doing things, and a very different FO in charge now, but the Twins haven't had this many pitching prospects...quality arms...since the late 80's going in to the early 90's. Unfortunately, for whatever reasons, despite many good rankings, things didn't work out. But again, over 30yrs ago. So I'm not trying to put a voodoo curse by my comments, lol, just been THAT LONG since I can remember a collection of arms this talented.

    Morris just needs a little velocity tick. Same with Lewis after missing early time last season, the knuckleball is great, maybe throw it more? Culpepper, like Lewis, missed time, and just needs to keep his velocity up. Not a SINGLE great pitch, but a lot of solid pitches to keep everyone off balance. I hear his change is his worst pitch. That's fine with the rest of his arsenal. Soto might need to change the shape of his FB for more movement, but the velocity is there, along with a great build, good athletic ability, and a great attitude. He could be outstanding in a couple of years! The still very young Raya, with kid gloves off, needs more consistency with his stuff. He's on the 40 man because he has to be. And that's fine. But when it comes to ML promotion time, he's actually behind Festa, Matthews, Morris, and Lewis, and Adams not because of potential, but readiness. And that's OK.

    If Prielipp is healthy for all of 2025, regardless of innings management and overall usage, he's a top 100 arm in next years rankings. Unless he skyrockets to MLB as a bullpen option this season. (Betting not). 

    As Seth pointed out, there's some arms from the 2023 draft barely threw, if at all, once drafted. Langenberg might be on a fast track. Dunn, Lee, and Bengard could all make moves in 2025 that MIGHT rival the advancement of the 2023 class, though that might be unfair expectations. The guy to watch is Dougherty, who was throwing bullets early in ST before an injury.

    I think we're all excited to see what young Hill can do in his debut. Like Festa...though a younger HS selection...he's got a tall and somewhat thin build. He will need more "good" muscle and bulk just to keep his velocity up. But he MIGHT be the most exciting LH arm the Twins have had in years. But Carpenter, I believe only 19yo at draft time, was headed to a quality D1 program out of JC and recieved a nice $ bump not to go there. He might be as good of a prospect as Hill.

    Similar to 2023, the Twins went harder in the 2024 draft early on position players. And in addition to Hill and Carpenter, an arm to watch is 9th round pick Doktorczyk who is part of the SPRING BREAKOUT roster. Build and STUFF, he's almost a clone of Matthews. Watch this kid in 2025.

    2] Beyond the obvious TOP THREE on the list, a healthy season for DeAndrade could see him climb the prospect list. I watched him make a couple bad throws in the Yankees game, but that doesn't mean that much for a kid in the semi bright lights of a ST when he missed so much time last season. Mercedes is one of the best 5 tool players in the franchise, though the power may be more doubles accentuated. I can easily see Winokur as the Twins starting CF in a couple years if he doesn't lose speed as he gains normal muscle. He's a freak athlete. He's shown ability and adjustment ability. Will it continue? I sure hope so. He could be special.

    What impresses me about the system is not only pitching depth overall, but once you get beyond Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Keaschall...and there is a gap there...the recent drafts and IL signings provide some really good looking prospects position wise sitting at A and A+ ready to take a step forward over the next couple of seasons. A few are IL signings that have a lot to prove yet. Some are college draftees who have barely begun their journey. And I didn't even touch on a couple 2024 position players who I think are interesting, in order to bring my opinion to a close. But DAMN, I really liked a few of the 2024 position players drafted and think they might have gotten some steals! 

     

    I Reds the other day that Chase Petty is throwing 98/99mph smoke. Sad that we no longer have him. We will however get to watch CP, Hill and Soto over the next couple years develop into top of the rotation SP’s! They might be misses but I would bet that the trio will be in the show…. One right after the other!!

    But let's talk for a moment about Payton Eels directly since he's a lightening rod of Twins prospects. 

    He played at a lower level school for 4 years and RAKED. But he was given a 5th corona season and transfered to a respected D1 school in Coastal Carolina and continued to rake.

    He's 5' 5" or maybe 5' 6" and a solidly built 180+ lbs. When he was draf eligible, despite raking at a lower level, and at CC, he was 23yo and still short. MOST college draftees are 20-21 yo and some are 22. The Twins haven't shied away from lower level draftees previously. But let's just say  the Twins decided to draft him as a late round pick at 23yo because they questioned his age and height but saw potential. Let's just say they selected him as the 17th to 20th pick instead of a couple non signing hopefulls that didn't sign in the end.

    BECAUSE he was a drafted player, even late round, would he be treated differently? In 2023 he MIGHT have appeared in a handful of games at S ball since that's the normal procedure for draft picks these days. And as a late round pick, he would have begun 2024 at A ball as a 24yo who destroyed pitching. So he would have been moved to A+ where he continued to destroy pitching. So much so he leaped AA entirely and jumped to AAA where he produced a .919 OPS with speed, and good bat, a tremendous OB%, and some pop as well. 

    IF he was a drafted player, would the Twins be looking at him differently? 

    The Twins have scouts looking at the Independent Leagues for help in the system, and the hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. Well, it looks like the might have found one.

    McCusker is a similar prospect, though older, who's actually seen a few AB this spring. Where is Eeles? Why wasn't he invited to ST? Is it possible he's injured? Maybe so. But if he's healthy...tell us if he's not...he should be in camp for a look. You ask scouts to find help and potential steals. Well, you found one. 

    MAYBE it's just a good 1yr story. But that seems pretty implausible considering what he has done so far. And maybe he doesn't make it considering how many don't. But to NOT having him at ST seems to be a very short sighted approach to talent on hand. 

    I agree Doc. 

    Eeles has achieved at every level he's played at.  He's set to begin the season at St. Paul which is AAA and one step from the major leagues.  I cannot believe Eeles wasn't invited to spring training.  If he was invited, but is injured, somebody who reports on the Twins for a living should have pointed this out 2 weeks ago.  

    Personally, for me, I'm fascinated by Eeles and his story.  Having watched Cesar Tovar growing up and Altuve and Pedroia I can't help but see some similarities.  

    Keaschall is the obvious front runner for a call up at some point this season, probably to play 2B.  I wouldn't bet against Keaschall, but Peyton Eeles could make that 2B competition interesting if Brooks Lee struggles and Eeles continues his strong play in April, May and June in St. Paul.

    (Brooks Lee has been swinging the bat pretty darn good so far in camp).

    10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    NOT having [Eeles] at ST seems to be a very short sighted approach to talent on hand.

    Truly. Odds are he flames out and doesn't do much of anything in the Majors, but you can say that about literally any of the prospects not named Jenkins. 

    Twins not inviting a prospect in AAA at a position of extreme weakness just screams managerial incompetence. But what's new? 

    14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Stats from players at AA last year. Leader in bold.
    #5 - a23 - AA - 9.19 K/9 (25.2%), 2.04 BB/9 (5.6%), 41.9% GB, 1.90 ERA2.36 FIP, 3.33 xFIP (Morris)
    #6 - a21 - AA - 9.62 K/9 (24.8%), 4.27 BB/9 (11.0%), 41.8% GB, 4.27 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.06 xFIP (Raya)
    #9 - a23 - AA - 10.91 K/9(28.8%), 4.64 BB/9(12.2%), 36.9% GB, 2.59 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 3.92 xFIP (Lewis)
    #12 - a22 - AA - 9.00 K/9 (23.3%), 3.00 BB/9 (7.8%), 39.0% GB, 4.71 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (Culpepper)
    #17 - a23 - AA - 11.16 K/9 (30.9%), 2.01 BB/9 (5.6%), 47.9% GB, 3.79 ERA3.55 FIP, 3.08 xFIP (Castellano)
    >20 - a24 - AA - 9.08 K/9 (24.5%), 2.33 BB/9 (6.3%), 42.5% GB, 3.67 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP (Adams)

     

    Thanks for consolidating these stats.  After getting a look at Castellano on TV and seeing these stats, I think they keep this guy one way or another.




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