Implications of the Latest Minnesota Twins Injury Updates

[Nick Nelson]

With the start of the regular season less than three weeks away, the Twins shared health updates for a number of players on Saturday. Here's what you need to know.

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson, Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta shared a series of health updates on Saturday at Hammond Stadium in Ft. Myers. Most concern the pitching staff, and several of these situations could have implications on the Opening Day roster. 

Here's a quick rundown of the fresh updates — as relayed by Twins Daily's John Bonnes, who is on the scene in Florida — and the potential ramifications for the team's rotation, bullpen and depth this season. We'll start with some good news.

Zebby Matthews has a right hip flexor strain but is improving quickly, slated to throw a bullpen on Sunday.
Implication: The injury, suffered when Matthews was fielding a ball in Thursday's game, looked a bit scary in the moment but it sounds like he dodged a bullet. If the bullpen goes well he should be back on track for the start of the regular season, but remains on track to open in St. Paul.

Matt Canterino has a significant shoulder injury, similar to the one that cost him his entire 2024 season.
Implication: Horrible news. Canterino's specific injury was described as "a little bit of a milder subscap [compared to last year] with a more moderate strain of his teres major and latissimus dorsi." Paparesta added that this "seems to be the soup du jour if you read any MLB news on injuries lately with pitchers." Canterino will be sidelined for months, at least, and now the question is whether the Twins will finally open up his 40-man roster spot. The righty is going to miss much of his age-27 season and still has only thrown 85 innings as a pro.

Michael Tonkin has a right shoulder strain, will be re-evaluated in 7-10 days.
Implication: This was the most surprising revelation of the day, as Tonkin was not previously known to be dealing with an injury. "Just wasn’t bouncing back the way he wanted to," explained Paparesta. Fortunately an MRI scan showed no structural damage, but Tonkin now faces a tough timeline to be ready for Opening Day. He's been prescribed rest and medication for the time being with a reevaluation coming in 7-10 days.

Justin Topa is in a holding pattern with his "shoulder tightness."
Implication: Topa exited a game earlier this week due to shoulder discomfort after showing diminished velocity in early spring appearances. It sounds like the team is still trying to get a read on the situation but they haven't done imaging so concern doesn't seem terribly high. The team mentioned has he's made "steady progress" in the past 48 hours. Still, like Tonkin the clock is ticking on Topa to be ready for the start of the season. The door is opening wider for Louie Varland and Eiberson Castellano. And if Canterino's 40-man roster spot opens up, that could create even more possibilities. 

Brock Stewart and Joe Ryan are all systems go.
Implication: Both of these key hurlers finished the 2024 season on the injured list, and Stewart spent his offseason rehabbing from shoulder surgery. But right now neither are being treated as injured players. They are on normal pitching plans and both seem to be responding well to their outings. This bodes well for the bullpen and rotation. There's currently no reason to doubt either pitcher's status for Opening Day.

Emmanuel Rodriguez took batting practice on Friday for the first time since thumb surgery, and it went well.
Implication: Rodriguez is the Twins' No. 2 prospect and one of the most exciting young talents in baseball. A thumb injury derailed his 2024 season, requiring offseason surgery, and checked off a big milestone this week. Rodriguez commented that swinging and missing "didn't hurt for the first time in seven months." He's still being slowed by an ankle injury and could be a little late to start his season in the minors, but it sounds like he could see game action before spring training is over. If he can stay on the field he absolutely has a chance to debut in the majors this summer.

Marco Raya is ready to return.
Implication: This intriguing arm from the Twins pitching pipeline has been held back by a quad injury this spring, that appears to have now been resolved. Raya is expected to pitch in Saturday's game.

Erasmo Ramirez has a significant shoulder injury.
Implication: The veteran joined the team on a minor-league deal once camp was already underway, with the Twins hoping to add another experienced bullpen arm to their depth. But he's been bothered by shoulder pain and has been diagnosed with a shoulder injury that Paparesta described as "a Joe Ryan type of injury from last year." Expect Ramirez to miss half the season if not more.

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[Linus]

Thanks for these updates.  Very helpful.

[Karbo]

Well, here we go again.

[JD-TWINS]

PEN: Do we think Castellano sticks? 6 months is a long-time to commit to a guy without any MLB innings. Sounds like there’s upside from all the stuff in print since the Rule 5 draft. It just doesn’t seem real to me …….with Topa & Tonkin iffy with 3 weeks to the opener, he probably has a real shot for the 26 man.

Man, I’d really like to see Paddack displaced by Festa in the rotation. To me, Paddack has zero chance of a successful year as a starter over the length of the season. He could spot start a handful of times (3 plus innings) & be a max effort guy out of the Pen. Seems the best way to get 80-100 effective innings v. 110 innings of mediocrity as a regular starter.

Varland - Paddack……Alcala - Sands ……..Coulombe - Stewart……Jax - Duran. That’s a very good group!

Blewett & Castellano are other possibilities. I assume they still might look to trade an arm or two before the end of March. Sure hope there is a surprise deal yet to be made!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As always, the "logjam" of people looking to make the roster always seems to magically resolve itself once the injury bug comes by.  I'm just glad that the injuries so far appear to be confined to the more minor potential contributors to the Twins 2025 success.  Also, for those in back who weren't listening:  "There is no such thing as too much pitching depth!"  Hopefully we don't need to absorb any more.

[Nashvilletwin]

Bullpen depth evaporating quickly.  

[ashbury]

I don't see much mystery as to Canterino's spot on the 40-man.  He can go on the 60-day IL to begin the season if they need a spot (or, I suppose, right now if they need the spot urgently), a status that can go as long as they want until season's end, after which he will be DFA'ed/waived and not re-added to the 40.  The only tiny intrigue is when do they actually DFA him, to minimize some other team picking him up on those waivers - unless they don't care in which case they simply release him after the DFA.

Roster machinations aside, it's a shame for him as well as for the FO and fans who were looking forward to him making it.

[Danchat]

Tonkin and Topa with shoulder injuries? Yikes. Looks like Tonkin will not be on the Opening Day roster, and Topa's health just isn't holding up.

Good to hear that Zebby is in good shape. I don't know much about hip flexors but I know a pitcher would much rather to be injured there than in the arm or shoulder.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Well, here we go again.

I suppose that is the glass half empty impression. I'll go the other way - Ryan and Stewart back on track means none of the Twins' high leverage starting or bullpen arms is dealing with health issues.

Topa and Tonkin are/were probably 7-8 in the bullpen pecking order (behind Duran-Jax-Sands-Coulombe-Stewart-Alcala), and, quite frankly, for the long run the Twins are probably better off with Varland and Castellano anyway. It's a shame about Canterino, but he wasn't expected to make the 26 man roster.  

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I don't see much mystery as to Canterino's spot on the 40-man.  He can go on the 60-day IL to begin the season if they need a spot (or, I suppose, right now if they need the spot urgently), a status that can go as long as they want until season's end, after which he will be DFA'ed/waived and not re-added to the 40.  The only tiny intrigue is when do they actually DFA him, to minimize some other team picking him up on those waivers - unless they don't care in which case they simply release him after the DFA.

Roster machinations aside, it's a shame for him as well as for the FO and fans who were looking forward to him making it.

Canterino received a $1.1MM signing bonus back in 2019. He's 27 years old now and unless he's on the IL all year, he'll burn his final MiLB option. I'd expect the Twins to move him to the 60 day IL and DFA and release him before the end of the year. Canterino won't get anything other than a MiLB deal.

The time for Canterino to make a decision in regard to his future career might be close at hand now. The $45k annual pay rate for him being on the 40 man in AAA, much less the $35k he'll make on a MiLB deal certainly wouldn't offset the compensation he'd be making professionally in a business setting.

[Sjoski]

Baseball players sure get injured enough for a non-contact sport.

Imagine if these guys played in the NHL... they'd be on the injured list before the end of the first period !

[Linus]

Gotta feel for Canterino.  The injuries have been relentless and the rehab work involved has to be daunting.  Your dream is right there and snatched away as soon as you can reach for it.

[Linus]

Seems like shoulder injuries are often the final blow for pitchers, especially older pitchers.  Doesn’t bode well for for Tonkin or Topa.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Baseball players sure get injured enough for a non-contact sport.

Imagine if these guys played in the NHL... they'd be on the injured list before the end of the first period !

Well, different activities require separate skills, muscle groups, and such. One can have major knee surgery and not miss a minute of work. Athletes have different expectations.

Throwing a baseball is incredibly stressful on both elbows and shoulders and swinging a bat is a violent movement. Athletes in all sports miss time and comparisons across sports are difficult at best. If I compare my own experiences across football, hockey, basketball, and baseball my opinion is that basketball was easily the most physical overall. Pitching left me much more sore than any of the others and catching left the most long term damage. Never was sore or injured in either football or hockey but also never played either of those sports above the high school level.

The differences at the highest professional levels are acute though. Football has large numbers of former players with varying degrees of CTE. The violence at the NFL level far surpasses the hits in any other team sports due to the sheer size of the players. A typical NFL team has more 300 pound players than an NHL team has guys at 200+ pounds.

While I don't follow other sports closely, it seems to me that a number of Wild players are out at any given time or do people consider Kaprizov, Brodin, and Erickson Ek soft? Injuries happen. At the close of every practice and game for decades, the last question was always a check for injuries. It is a serious matter to overlook safety and one should resist questioning the toughness of injured player. Plainly speaking, athletes believe that injuries suck. But it happens.

[stringer bell]

I would say that the odds were never good that Canterino would be a healthy contributor for the Twins. That said, one has to feel bad for the still-young man who has obvious talent but simply can't stay healthy. Banking on more than a half season from either Stewart or Topa is a similar long shot IMHO. Being able to use both the IL and rehab will allow the Twins to hold on to their Rule V guy and get Varland some innings as a bullpen piece while not losing either Tonkin or Topa. By the time someone falters or is injured, they might be able to step in. 

What are the rules for DFAs of injured players? It could be they'll have to carry Canterino on the 60 man IL and he will accrue major league service time since he hadn't been optioned to the minors. I don't know if he can be DFA'd while injured or recovering from surgery. 

[Linus]

9 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I would say that the odds were never good that Canterino would be a healthy contributor for the Twins. That said, one has to feel bad for the still-young man who has obvious talent but simply can't stay healthy. Banking on more than a half season from either Stewart or Topa is a similar long shot IMHO. Being able to use both the IL and rehab will allow the Twins to hold on to their Rule V guy and get Varland some innings as a bullpen piece while not losing either Tonkin or Topa. By the time someone falters or is injured, they might be able to step in. 

What are the rules for DFAs of injured players? It could be they'll have to carry Canterino on the 60 man IL and he will accrue major league service time since he hadn't been optioned to the minors. I don't know if he can be DFA'd while injured or recovering from surgery. 

There are others more knowledgeable about the rules but I believe you cannot dfa a player while injured.  Also, since he was on the 40 man and had not been sent to minors yet I believe he will be on the mlb IL meaning he will be able to collect a nice check for a while.  Eventually he will have to face the pitch or be released problem.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

Baseball players sure get injured enough for a non-contact sport.

Imagine if these guys played in the NHL... they'd be on the injured list before the end of the first period !

You're comparing apples and oranges.

[ashbury]

17 hours ago, stringer bell said:

What are the rules for DFAs of injured players? It could be they'll have to carry Canterino on the 60 man IL and he will accrue major league service time

You raised a good point, and I can't find anything definitive.  OOTP tries to mirror MLB rules pretty closely but certainly isn't authoritative for such situations - it lets me DFA someone on the 60-day so I'll assume it's legal, but with low confidence.

But if the rules are strict like you suggest, either 1) they will opt to rip the bandaid off, so to speak, very soon and DFA him before ILing him, or 2) they are already on the hook given that he's injured and will have to let him accrue benefits for the whole season.  The latter is a relatively minor financial aspect, and service time for a guy in his situation is not really an issue for a team - but the Twins have always had the philosophy, "watch the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves."  

We'll get a refresher course in rules arcana by watching what the Twins do, if no one here speaks up definitively before that.

[bean5302]

No restrictions on DFA/releasing injured players that I know of. J.T. Chargois was DFA'd by the Twins in 2018 while recovering from TJ as I recall.

[DocBauer]

Just terrible news on Canterino. I think a lot of thought/hoped his TJ surgery would get his career back on track. Maybe his arm/shoukder is just never going to be right. Maybe he's one of those guys like Stewart that suddenly gets right when he gets closer to 30yo. Just a shame. But the Twins just can't afford to carry him on the 40 man any longer. He got to be placed on the 60 day IL and free up the roster spot if they intend to hold on to him. At this point, what does starting his service timeclock matter?

I'm still not crazy about stashing Castellano as the 8th man in the pen. I'd still rather see a trade...if the cost isn't too large...with the Phillies so we at least have the flexibility to option him out. But having watched him twice now, his STUFF is GOOD. His curve is NASTY and the velocity and movement on his fastball play very well. Maybe coming out of the pen for 1-2 innings mitigated his lack of experience?

While i can't wait to see Rodriguez, I've always thought the Twins...right or wrong...intended for him to begin the year at AAA. Being almost ready to hit the field should have him ready to open the season.

[Fatbat]

Its only a matter of time until Canterino is DFA’d. If his contract is insured, the FO will not care how long he sits on the IL 60 cause that opens up the 40 man spot. The team doesn't lose anything by paying for his rehab time.

 The immediate question is who gets added to the 40 man? someone outside the org or a young stud like Keaschall that can displace Martin/Julien. 
Then the questions that have to be answered in under 14 days is do Tonkin and Topa go on the 60 IL and if they both do, who do you add for pitching depth to the 40 man? Who is worthyANDready to be the next man up if needed? 
who will be out on the waiver wire before 4/1?  
The only thing constant is change… and you never have enough pitching. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Its only a matter of time until Canterino is DFA’d. If his contract is insured, the FO will not care how long he sits on the IL 60 cause that opens up the 40 man spot. The team doesn't lose anything by paying for his rehab time.

 The immediate question is who gets added to the 40 man? someone outside the org or a young stud like Keaschall that can displace Martin/Julien. 
Then the questions that have to be answered in under 14 days is do Tonkin and Topa go on the 60 IL and if they both do, who do you add for pitching depth to the 40 man? Who is worthyANDready to be the next man up if needed? 
who will be out on the waiver wire before 4/1?  
The only thing constant is change… and you never have enough pitching. 

I'm not sure about all of the procedures, but there is zero reason to add someone to the 40-man roster until they are going to be on the active roster--that is, why add someone like Blewett to the 40-man unless he is on the active 26-man roster? Canterino, Topa or Tonkin might eventually land on the 60-day list, but the first move will be to put them on the 15-day list until there is a need to add a non-roster guy to the active roster. Any of those guys can eventually be moved to the 60-day if the injury is disabling for that period and there is a need to add to the active roster. 

[terrydactyls]

Any word on Connor Prielipp?

[Fatbat]

16 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Any word on Connor Prielipp?

He throws smoke and has a very good pitch mix. Lots of K’s. 

[terrydactyls]

51 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Any word on Connor Prielipp?

34 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

He throws smoke and has a very good pitch mix. Lots of K’s. 

I meant any word on his health.

 

[Whitey333]

Great article.  Thanks for the updates

[jmlease1]

just a shame about Canterino. Poor guy got his arm wrecked in college I think and has never been healthy enough to show his quality at the pro level for very long. I don't think anyone was counting on him to contribute, but he's always had the talent, so it stinks that he's not going to get a chance. He's certainly put in the effort to try and get healthy. You just feel for the guy.

Glad Matthews isn't seriously injured. He's important depth for the starting pitching and if he were set back too far it might make the team have second thoughts about shifting Varland to the 'pen. (Especially if Raya's injury lingered too).

I always assumed at least one of Topa/Stewart wouldn't make it to Opening Day, and I feel like the Twins did too. Certainly looks like Castellano will have a chance to stick as the last man in the bullpen, and I'm enthusiastic about having Varland throwing gas for us from the jump.

Hopefully Rodriguez's ankle responds quickly, but it's very good news that the thumb surgery seems to have worked for him.

[old nurse]

17 hours ago, ashbury said:

You raised a good point, and I can't find anything definitive.  OOTP tries to mirror MLB rules pretty closely but certainly isn't authoritative for such situations - it lets me DFA someone on the 60-day.  But if the rules are strict like you suggest, either 1) they will opt to rip the bandaid off, so to speak, very soon and DFA him before ILing him, or 2) they are already on the hook given that he's injured and will have to let him accrue benefits for the whole season.  The latter is a relatively minor financial aspect, and service time for a guy in his situation is not really an issue for a team - but the Twins have always had the philosophy, "watch the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves."  We'll get a refresher course in rules arcana by watching what they do, if no one speaks up definitively before that.

They can DFA him. They would still e liable for medical and this year’s salary. They can’t option him injured. That is why so many players get optioned early out of spring training. They would have to put him on the 60 day to open up a slot on the 40 man. 

[ashbury]

42 minutes ago, old nurse said:

They can DFA him. They would still e liable for medical and this year’s salary. They can’t option him injured. That is why so many players get optioned early out of spring training. They would have to put him on the 60 day to open up a slot on the 40 man. 

That is probably what we're remembering, and misapplying to the DFA case.

[old nurse]

19 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That is probably what we're remembering, and misapplying to the DFA case.

Tonkin was not released while injured. He pitched that September and was released after the season. 

Kirriloff was optioned but said Nope, I am injured so they couldn’t option him and had to be pt on the IL. 

Everyone here pretty much should understand that a team is responsible for a contract with a DFA because of Dobnak.  

With the cost of medical and rehabilitation it would be amazing if injuries and care of those injuries was not a part of the CBA

the team has many many examples of sticking with pitchers who are injury prone.  I doubt they would dump Canterino.