Minnesota Twins' Surplus of Arms: Smart Depth Play or Missed Trade Opportunity?

[Matthew Taylor]

The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason with a significant question: should they trade from their wealth of pitching depth to address offensive concerns, or hold onto their arms for the long haul? While some clamored for a bold move, the front office stayed the course, valuing depth over immediate upgrades.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (L to R: Cory Lewis, Simeon Woods Richardson, Andrew Morris, David Festa, Travis Adams, Zebby Matthews)

The Minnesota Twins are entering the 2025 season with an enviable surplus of pitching talent, a luxury that led some to wonder whether the team should have been more aggressive in trading arms for offensive reinforcements. Yet, as the Twins stood pat this offseason, their decision to retain their pitching depth appears to be the right one.

Minnesota’s pitching depth is staggering. Even beyond their established Major League rotation, the Saints’ Triple-A rotation features names like David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, and Marco Raya—all of whom have either shown flashes of success in the majors or are on the cusp of making an impact. That doesn’t even include Louis Varland, who remains in limbo between a starting and bullpen role.

Despite this depth, the Twins opted against leveraging it in the trade market for a bat, instead filling their offensive gaps with free-agent additions like Harrison Bader and Ty France. While a more aggressive approach could have landed them a significant impact bat, potentially at the cost of a front-end starter like Joe Ryan, Pablo López, or Bailey Ober, the team’s decision to hold onto its depth aligns with its organizational philosophy: pitching is paramount.

Last season demonstrated why. Injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack forced the Twins to tap into their reserves, with Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa all stepping up when called upon. That depth proved essential in navigating the inevitable attrition that comes with a 162-game season. Given that history, the Twins were wise to prioritize keeping their arms, even at the expense of offensive firepower.

However, this strategy does come with risks. The Twins’ lineup is far from elite, lacking a true right-handed power threat and relying heavily on bounce-back performances from players like Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis. Banking on improved health from their bats is a gamble, and if the offense sputters, the decision to hoard pitching depth could come under scrutiny.

Additionally, while depth is valuable, it can also create roster logjams. Prospects who are ready for the majors may find themselves stuck in Triple-A due to the sheer number of arms ahead of them. This can lead to underutilization of talent and potentially diminish trade value if these players don’t get opportunities to showcase their abilities at the highest level. The Twins must balance retaining depth with ensuring player development isn’t stalled.

That said, the trade deadline presents a logical pivot point. If Minnesota finds itself in playoff contention but struggling offensively, their surplus of arms will provide valuable trade capital. The need for pitching depth decreases as the season progresses—by July, the rotation will be more settled, and the urgency to maintain a deep reservoir of arms lessens. At that point, moving a Festa, Matthews, or even a more established arm for a lineup upgrade would make sense, allowing the Twins to fine-tune their roster for a postseason push.

Ultimately, the Twins’ conservative approach was the right call. While their offense remains a question mark, the value of elite starting pitching depth cannot be overstated. What might seem like an excess of arms now could prove crucial when injuries inevitably arise. And should they reach the trade deadline with a clear need for offense, they’ll have the assets to address it. For now, the Twins are betting on depth—and their own recent history suggests that was the right decision.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

If the depth is all still mostly healthy come July, I’d have to imagine a move or two will be there for the deadline too 

[CRF]

You can never have too many arms, but there's a lot to be said for including one or two of them in a smart trade. 

[arby58]

The thing about trades is it requires two willing parties where needs align. I think those clamoring for the Twins to 'do something' often disregard this fact. On a website devoted to trade rumors that I frequent, fans often discuss 'this for that' trade possibilities with the site's subject matter experts. Far more often than not the 'expert' dismisses it as not realistic for one (or even both) side(s).

[FlyingFinn]

I think the answer to your question is yes, it is both a smart depth play and a missed trade opportunity. The Twins have either made some bad trades or traded for some pitchers who unluckily got injured (some would say it was predictable). I think that, and wanting to have this depth, has led to standing pat. The best move would be to accurately predict who is going to be a AAAA pitcher and who is going to be a major leaguer and trade the AAAA guys now. MUCH easier said than done. 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm all for trading away players that we should trade. But I don't think we're quite there yet with our pitching depth to trade from. Last offseason, we were a little short on depth, which resulted in injuries to Paddack & Ryan & the rest of the rotation running out of gas, especially the rookies. This season I don't believe we have a surplus of MLB arms. We have Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR & Paddack plus a slew of AAA SP that can be rotated in & out to help manage the rotation. I wouldn't mind trading away the last year of Paddack if we need to meet budget. But that's it.

If we focus on pitching & defense, especially up the middle, our offense is more than capable when properly managed. Last offseason the Twins wanted offensive bats MAT & Rhys Hoskins. We dodge the bullet on both because we didn't have the money to afford them. But we didn't dodge the bullet from the Dodgers by the means of Margot. IMO big bats, especially lately, are a gamble unless you have the money for Soto. I'm a big believer in our offense & they will produce if managed properly & able to keep the glue together. We might need to trade from our surplus of offense before we need to trade from our pitching.

Speaking about defense up the middle. Catching has been our biggest need. They bought an expensive band-aid in Vazquez to keep us from bleeding to death, But sooner or later we'll have to rip off that bandage. We still have that gaping wound, w/o Vazquez, we have Jeffers, who can only manage a weak side tandem. Camargo & Cartaya, who haven't shown yet that they are MLB 3rd string catchers. We have 5 catchers on the 40-man but only 2 are serviceable. Jeffers's contract is about to expire, & it'll be ridiculous to sign Jeffers to an outlandish extension. We have to have a MLB 3rd catcher who can be our future catcher (Jeffers is not him) & time to groom him, a good option so we don't have to extend Jeffers. Cartaya can become a MLB catcher, but he's not now & we don't know when or how far he can advance. I would not trade pitching for offense, but I would for a promising young MLB-ready catcher, if I had to. 

[Eris]

Upgrading the Twins is really hard as the Twins are an above average team offensively, but below average defensively.  It is not just one position, it is across the field. A major issue that does not have an easy solution is too many players are injury prone (Buxton, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, and possibly Lee).  2B was an issue last year, but not because of personnel as putting Castro or healthy Lee at 2B would have solved the 2B problem.  Having both Wallner and Larnach in the outfield poses defensive issues.  One of them needs to learn how to play 1B and the other needs to be traded if you want an outfield that is above average defensively.  (Adding Rodriquez, Jenkins and possibly Keaschall substantially changes the OF discussion ) At C, Ryan Jeffers has been too slump prone to be counted on as full time C and it is the one position where the Twins do not good organizational options.  
 

I don’t see the Twins as being one player away from advancing further into the playoffs and therefore I would not be trading any SP to improve a position.  Likely the Twins will need acquire a C for next year and it is probably necessary to include pitching in a trade that substantially upgrades the catcher position.

As an aside, taking into consideration my opinions and other TD writers, the Twins have a future log jam at 1B with 1B possibly being the most suitable position for Lewis, Julian, Larnach, Miranda, and Wallner.  The FO solution is to bring in Ty France.  Any potential trades should focus on clearing this future log jam at 1B.  The challenge is that among those listed, only Lewis and Wallner are likely to return value that this time which means they should also be retained as being most likely to be future contributors.

 

[Otaknam]

Signing a free agent bat isn’t a sure thing either. Does $11 million for Joey Gallo and his 45% strikeout rate ring a bell? 

[chpettit19]

I know people aren't going to like to hear this, but I think the trade move is coming next offseason. One of Ryan or Ober most likely, but maybe Pablo. Because of that I am good with not trading anyone this offseason. All 3 of those guys have 2 years left after this. If SWR, Festa, Matthews, anyone comes close to establishing themselves as someone who can reasonably fill a top 3 rotation spot the Twins will trade one of the vets currently fronting the rotation. With 2 years of control left any of those guys would fetch a sizeable return. I think the Twins are giving themselves 1 more year to see if they trust their system to produce another playoff caliber starter and then the trade will come.

[Fatbat]

I would imagine that a trade will happen by the deadline but for the first time possibly ever, we actually might end ‘25 with guys in AAA that could have been used in MLB.  Thats not a luxury, that should be SOP.  We always run out of pitching!  We always bring in a vet that doesn’t pan out.  This offseason was truly different in a great way.  Maybe the trade deadline will come and go because we don’t need an upgrade on the field or in the lineup so we just stash our depth.  It’s about time we have this scenario.

[Whitey333]

A lot of questions in the pitching depth.  We seem to have a solid 3 or 4 starting pitchers.  Trading any of them seems foolish especially since the younger pitchers still have a lot to prove.  The team is very poor defensively and doesn't steal, bunt, or even run the bases efficiently.  They have a lot to prove this year.  For all the hype about this team let's not forget they have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years.  IMO this year, more than ever, they need to have a very good April and May to take away some of the bad taste left behind.

[DJL44]

They will trade Paddack when the opportunity presents itself. I could also see Tonkin or Topa getting dealt before the season begins.

[rv78]

Reading all of the comments says this team is a mess. Seriously. Yet the writer suggests the Twins are a playoff contender. They have an "elite" starting staff. Some say Lopez is NOT an Ace. Ober and Ryan are good but not without their occasional hiccups. SWR is only 1 year in and Paddack has proven he can't be relied on. They have tremendous depth in the minors. (Uh, how can you consider minor leaguers that are unproven in the majors as depth?) Other articles say the Twins have the "best bullpen in baseball". We heard that last year too and learned that wasn't the case. Their best hitters they rely on are injury prone. Larnach and Wallner can't play defense. If Buck is out, as usual, then all three outfield spots are not worth a hoot. Correa and Lewis are suddenly considered in the same catagory as Buck when it comes to being injury prone, leaving the left side of the infield suspect as well. No one seems to have the ability to play 2nd base either offensively or defensively, and 1B seems to have been given (by Rocco) to a veteran (France) who was brought in on a prove it or lose it opportunity. That makes the right side of the infield a problem as well. Now add a catching combo that is inconsistant and we have an entire roster on the field that almost no one can trust to perform or even be on the field. Good job Falvey.

[Major League Ready]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I know people aren't going to like to hear this, but I think the trade move is coming next offseason. One of Ryan or Ober most likely, but maybe Pablo. Because of that I am good with not trading anyone this offseason. All 3 of those guys have 2 years left after this. If SWR, Festa, Matthews, anyone comes close to establishing themselves as someone who can reasonably fill a top 3 rotation spot the Twins will trade one of the vets currently fronting the rotation. With 2 years of control left any of those guys would fetch a sizeable return. I think the Twins are giving themselves 1 more year to see if they trust their system to produce another playoff caliber starter and then the trade will come.

Wow!  I was about to write pretty much the exact same thing when a notice came up on my screen you had just replied to this thread.  Pablo / Ryan, and Ober all expiring in the same year is very difficult to manage if sustained success is considered.  If Zebby or Festa or Prielipp, etc, can take the position of one of those top three, they can expand their window while managing payroll to allow for extending current players or bring creating payroll room for free agents.  The former would be preferrable. 

 

[TopGunn#22]

Good comments from all and an interesting article to ponder what is, what could have been and what might still be.  I do not think we lack in RH power.  Buxton, Correa and Lewis is plenty of RH power.  What we lack with each of those 3 is durability.  Let's face it, the Twins aren't going to be very good if any of those 3 guys misses significant time.  All 3 missing 50-60 games would be a disaster, no matter how well the rest of the team does.  They are just that important.

On one hand, I think the FO missed an opportunity to sell high on SWR and package him in a trade for a true power hitter.  I think SWR hit his peak last year and Festa, Matthews and Morris will all surpass him.  They all just have higher ceilings.  

We are not an exceptional defensive ballclub despite having a couple of Gold Glove candidates at SS and CF.  Again, Correa and Buxton need to play 120-130 games for their defense and offense to fully benefit the Twins.  

There was a lot of talk about making a play for Triston Casas.  I would have favored a trade with SWR and something else going to Boston.  The problem with this trade was how Boston would be handling 1B, 3B and DH.  Matsusaka didn't play any games in the OF last year.  The Red Sox used him exclusively at DH.  Casas is not a good fielding 1B but he's a young power hitter who WILL hit HR's.  I would compare him to Matt Wallner.  I'm convinced Wallner hits at least 25 HR's in 2025.  The Red Sox also have Rafael Devers who is a terrible 3B but an outstanding hitter.  Then they went out and signed a former Gold Glover at 3B in Alex Bregman.

It would make a lot of sense to play Bregman at 3B as he's been a Gold Glover and one of Boston's top prospects is a 2B (Kristen Crawford).  But Devers is pouting about being moved off of 3B so there is trouble brewing in Beantown.  What makes sense and what the Red Sox actually do is yet to be seen, but they are one player too full at DH, 3B and 1B unless Bregman plays 2B.   

So there is still a chance a deal for someone like Casas could happen. 

While I would have been proactive and made a deal involving SWR the better scenario may be what chpetitt19 suggested and that would be a deadline deal.  If SWR is holding his own, I would still look to deal him if Festa, Matthews and Morris are looking good.  I just think their ceilings are higher than SWR's.  The Twins would be better off trading pitching for a hitter who is a good defensive player as well.  THAT may be the deadline deal that proves to be much more beneficial than an off season trade for someone like Casas.     

[TopGunn#22]

I should clarify:  I would still like a deadline deal involving SWR.  But chpetitt19 is right to point out that if Festa, Matthews and Morris look good, we could see a bigger off season deal involving Lopez, Ryan or Ober.  The names involved in that trade would be interesting.  Perhaps the Twins make a trade that solves their future catching problems fully.  I for one would not be extending Jeffers.  I'm dealing him at some point.  He's just too inconsistent.

It will be very interesting to see what Cartaya and Camargo show this season.  

[arby58]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They will trade Paddack when the opportunity presents itself. I could also see Tonkin or Topa getting dealt before the season begins.

Why would anybody trade for Tonkin? Last year, the Twins traded for him (for cash) with the Mets. They then designated him for assignment four days later, and the Mets claimed him. A week later, the Mets designated him for assignment, and the Yankees claimed him. Then in August, the Yankees designated him for assignment and the Twins claimed him.

He's about as valuable, trade material-wise, as a bag of batting practice balls.

[Fatbat]

45 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I should clarify:  I would still like a deadline deal involving SWR.  But chpetitt19 is right to point out that if Festa, Matthews and Morris look good, we could see a bigger off season deal involving Lopez, Ryan or Ober.  The names involved in that trade would be interesting.  Perhaps the Twins make a trade that solves their future catching problems fully.  I for one would not be extending Jeffers.  I'm dealing him at some point.  He's just too inconsistent.

It will be very interesting to see what Cartaya and Camargo show this season.  

I agree the SWR is a good trade candidate. I disagree that he has peaked his value tho. He is entering his 2nd full season at the age of 24. He has several years of team control at a very cheap price going forward. He hasn’t yet proven he is a 32 starts workhorse. 
He has several steps in development that IF he takes this season, his value increases greatly.  Its certainly plausible that if/when he takes those steps, the FO views him as a long term #3 SP and ink him to a contract extension of say 6 years $50M. 

[Guest]

Depends entirely on what's offered, for whom, and when, doesn't it?

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm all for trading away players that we should trade. But I don't think we're quite there yet with our pitching depth to trade from. Last offseason, we were a little short on depth, which resulted in injuries to Paddack & Ryan & the rest of the rotation running out of gas, especially the rookies. This season I don't believe we have a surplus of MLB arms. We have Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR & Paddack plus a slew of AAA SP that can be rotated in & out to help manage the rotation. I wouldn't mind trading away the last year of Paddack if we need to meet budget. But that's it.

If we focus on pitching & defense, especially up the middle, our offense is more than capable when properly managed. Last offseason the Twins wanted offensive bats MAT & Rhys Hoskins. We dodge the bullet on both because we didn't have the money to afford them. But we didn't dodge the bullet from the Dodgers by the means of Margot. IMO big bats, especially lately, are a gamble unless you have the money for Soto. I'm a big believer in our offense & they will produce if managed properly & able to keep the glue together. We might need to trade from our surplus of offense before we need to trade from our pitching.

Speaking about defense up the middle. Catching has been our biggest need. They bought an expensive band-aid in Vazquez to keep us from bleeding to death, But sooner or later we'll have to rip off that bandage. We still have that gaping wound, w/o Vazquez, we have Jeffers, who can only manage a weak side tandem. Camargo & Cartaya, who haven't shown yet that they are MLB 3rd string catchers. We have 5 catchers on the 40-man but only 2 are serviceable. Jeffers's contract is about to expire, & it'll be ridiculous to sign Jeffers to an outlandish extension. We have to have a MLB 3rd catcher who can be our future catcher (Jeffers is not him) & time to groom him, a good option so we don't have to extend Jeffers. Cartaya can become a MLB catcher, but he's not now & we don't know when or how far he can advance. I would not trade pitching for offense, but I would for a promising young MLB-ready catcher, if I had to. 

Wow.  It took until the third paragraph before you brought up your personal mantra:  "our catching sucks.  we must improve our catching".  Congratulations on your patience.

[Linus]

Regarding the title: the Twins have a surplus of AA / AAA arms, not major league arms (yet).  Players get weeded out at every level with the jump to the bigs being the most difficult.  The Twins are in a good position of having several prospects that look close to being ready to make the jump but success is far from certain.  If they hang on to the current “surplus” they will likely end up with just enough starting pitching.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I should clarify:  I would still like a deadline deal involving SWR.  But chpetitt19 is right to point out that if Festa, Matthews and Morris look good, we could see a bigger off season deal involving Lopez, Ryan or Ober.  The names involved in that trade would be interesting.  Perhaps the Twins make a trade that solves their future catching problems fully.  I for one would not be extending Jeffers.  I'm dealing him at some point.  He's just too inconsistent.

It will be very interesting to see what Cartaya and Camargo show this season.  

If Jeffers and Vasquez stay healthy (even if they have poor offensive years), Cartaya and Camargo will never be given an opportunity to impress the front office.

[terrydactyls]

20 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Depends entirely on what's offered, for whom, and when, doesn't it?

ABSO-DAMN-LUTELY!!

[AKTwinsFan]

Players like Paddack could have been moved or SWR. Festa might have one of the better seasons if he remains in the lineup. 

[AKTwinsFan]

Someone should also be fired for letting Headrick go instead of Funderburk. We lost a real difference maker. Maybe one of the worse decisions made in recent Twins history. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Why would anybody trade for Tonkin? Last year, the Twins traded for him (for cash) with the Mets. They then designated him for assignment four days later, and the Mets claimed him. A week later, the Mets designated him for assignment, and the Yankees claimed him. Then in August, the Yankees designated him for assignment and the Twins claimed him.

He's about as valuable, trade material-wise, as a bag of batting practice balls.

He's to hot to handle.

[Parfigliano]

41 minutes ago, Linus said:

Regarding the title: the Twins have a surplus of AA / AAA arms, not major league arms (yet).  Players get weeded out at every level with the jump to the bigs being the most difficult.  The Twins are in a good position of having several prospects that look close to being ready to make the jump but success is far from certain.  If they hang on to the current “surplus” they will likely end up with just enough starting pitching.

The pitching pipeline is laid.  When injuries come open the spigot.

[bean5302]

We have a lot of depth? It might be reasonable to consider most prospects don't work out.

Established, quality MLB rotation arms
Lopez
Ryan
Ober
---------------
Probable, experienced, quality MLB rotation arms
Paddack
Festa
Matthews
--------------
Improbable, but possibly back end, experienced MLB rotation arms
Woods Richardson
--------------
Limited high level MiLB experience, high ceiling rotation arms
Raya
Lewis

Beyond that, there's low minors guys like Prielipp, and low ceiling depth guys like Morris, Culpepper, Adams, Dobnak.

[bean5302]

21 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

Someone should also be fired for letting Headrick go instead of Funderburk. We lost a real difference maker. Maybe one of the worse decisions made in recent Twins history. 

Headrick, a difference maker? I mean, it's possible, but there wasn't much to project there IMHO.

[Parfigliano]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

We have a lot of depth? It might be reasonable to consider most prospects don't work out.

Established, quality MLB rotation arms
Lopez
Ryan
Ober
---------------
Probable, experienced, quality MLB rotation arms
Paddack
Festa
Matthews
--------------
Improbable, but possibly back end, experienced MLB rotation arms
Woods Richardson
--------------
Limited high level MiLB experience, high ceiling rotation arms
Raya
Lewis

Beyond that, there's low minors guys like Prielipp, and low ceiling depth guys like Morris, Culpepper, Adams, Dobnak.

I'd put SWR in the probable, experienced slot.