On New Pitches and Rising Pitch Counts: Marco Raya is Ready to Cut Loose in 2025

[Jamie Cameron]

Twins right-handed pitcher Marco Raya has always had the stuff to become a big league starter. He's always been handled cautiously by the Twins. What has Raya been working on this offseason? We dig in to find out.

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

One on hand, mission accomplished for the Twins and Marco Raya . The 22-year-old right-handed pitcher enters 2025 spring training healthy and on the doorstep of the majors. On the other hand, there’s so much still to discover. It’s a regular occurrence that a prospect comes into spring training with something to prove. It’s a less frequent occurrence that the needed proof-point stems from organizational decision making, rather than player performance. 

That’s exactly where Raya finds himself, though. His pitch counts and workload have been carefully monitored since he experienced shoulder problems earlier in his career. Successfully so. Raya hasn’t suffered persistent injuries since. He’s coming off a career-high 92 ⅔ innings in 2024 and is likely to start 2025 at Triple-A.

Raya pitched six innings just once in 2024, five innings just five times. The other 19 starts were all less than five innings. Raya was on fairly strict pitch counts in 2024 to ensure he got to the doorstep of the majors with as little wear and tear as possible. It leaves us with important unanswered questions; how will his arsenal stand up to going through a lineup the third time? How will his smaller frame stand up to an increased workload in 2025?

If Raya exhibits any frustration at the slow progression of his workload and pitch counts, he doesn’t show it. "It’s just building up little by little," Raya told Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, "Taking care of my arm and building my body weight to support it." 

The Twins clearly feel that the time is now to take the training wheels off Raya’s workload limitations. He threw at least five innings in five of his last seven starts for Wichita and St. Paul in 2024, capping a solid season in which he posted a 4.05 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and struck out 24.6% of hitters, while walking 10.5%.

Raya has focused his offseason on being ready for spring training. "I got here January 5th," Raya told reporters, early in spring workouts. "The past few years I’ve arrived around the same date." 

Raya isn’t just relying on thorough preparation ahead of 2025, he’s expanded his arsenal. "I’ve got six pitches: four-seam, two-seam, cutter, curveball, slider, and changeup." 

Much like Andrew Morris, Raya has been engaged this season in diversifying his pitch mix. Raya added a cutter last year, which became one of his best pitches, creating plenty of in-zone whiffs. This offseason, his focus has been elsewhere. "I’ve really been hammering the change up. I didn’t feel super comfortable with it last year, but it’s really come along."  Raya relayed to Bonnes, clarifying that he wants a pitch which ‘separates’ and moves away from left-handed hitters more effectively. 

Monitoring Raya’s changeup will be one area of interest for Twins fans in 2025, as he struggled a little more than you might like to see against left-handed hitters. With an expanded arsenal of pitches and the pitch count handbrake being eased off, we’ll finally get a chance to see how Raya’s strong stuff might translate to a starting pitching role on the big-league team in an extended audition in St. Paul.

Twins Daily's John Bonnes contributed to reporting for this article.

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[thelanges5]

Falvey pitching pipeline. ⚾️

Been a hot minute since I’ve felt optimistic about the Twins pitching. 

[Mark G]

Isn't this the debate that keeps coming back over and over again?   Baby the arm to prevent injuries as much as possible; as such, you never build up the arm to go any deeper than a prototype long reliever.  Build up the arm, and risk the arm injuries you are trying to avoid........has anyone won that debate yet?  🙃

Okay, the training wheels are off (are our training wheels ever off?).  Let the kid show what he has; if he is still so fragile he can't handle the load, find out now and work with him on becoming the best reliever he can be.  But a major league starter has got to pitch a lot more than 92 innings a season, so build him up or convert him.  

I can already feel the arrows coming.  😉

[Fatbat]

Full arsenal, pitch mix and health. This kid is gonna rock it in ‘25! 

[TL]

Really looking forward to seeing him unleashed. He almost feels like an afterthought with Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, SWR getting more attention for rotation spots this year. But in terms of “top of the rotation” potential he’s got as much of it as anyone and if he has a strong start he could be an early call-up.

[old nurse]

Have pitchers get injured and face criticism. Take things cautiously, get criticism. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Full arsenal, pitch mix and health. This kid is gonna rock it in ‘25! 

Seems to be on the verge - although I would bet (other than a series of injuries) that he rocks it in '25 at St. Paul. You have to figure (unless they unload Paddock) that Festa and Matthews are ahead of him (I'm assuming SWR is the 4 or 5 Twins starting pitcher).

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

Okay, the training wheels are off (are our training wheels ever off?). 

The Twins were top half (tied for 13th) in average innings pitched per starter last year - and that was with two rookies having a lot of starts. The year before that they were tied for third. Baseball has definitely changed in terms of the role of starting pitchers, but the Twins actually exhibit less 'training wheel' mentality towards its starting pitchers of late than most MLB teams.

[LambchoP]

Hopefully he is able to go full bore this year and put in 150 innings of productive ball. If he can prove he's healthy and can handle a starters workload, he should be competing for a rotation spot next year. Hard to not be cautiously optimistic about this pitching pipeline.

[Jamie Cameron]

All these positive comments are giving me life this AM. Thanks for reading and engaging, y'all. Excited to see how he does in AAA in 2025.

[Jamie Cameron]

100 percent agree. I think the treatment of Raya has accomplished the mission; get him close to MLB healthy. Now you gotta see what you got in 2025.

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The Twins were top half (tied for 13th) in average innings pitched per starter last year - and that was with two rookies having a lot of starts. The year before that they were tied for third. Baseball has definitely changed in terms of the role of starting pitchers, but the Twins actually exhibit less 'training wheel' mentality towards its starting pitchers of late than most MLB teams.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

If the Twins can keep him in the minors this year and most of the next they will have accomplished never having to pay him market value in his prime and that is a good things for a mid market team.

Good luck Mr. Marco!

[bean5302]

Increased body weight = bad. More mass = more force exerted = more chance of injury. Muscle mass isn't as important as muscle strength. Anyway, hopefully Raya can remain healthy and improve his results this year in AAA by holding or improving his K% while also lowering his walk rate all while now allowing more hits vs. AA last year.

[Doctor Gast]

Raya has a lot of potential & I'm looking forward to him pitching in the MLB this year if the need arises. Unlike Canterino & Prielipp, also with questionable healthy arms, Raya was inning-managed. If Raya wasn't managed & his arm fell off, some fans would criticize the Twins for not managing Raya's arm. The other fans would come back very quickly with you are full baloney, arm management is for the birds, you have to extend the pitchers, his arm would have fallen off anyway. But the fact that they have managed his arm & he's able to stay on the field & move up the system is a credit & proves arm management is necessary in the long run by increasing the quantity & quality of pitches.

Raya is a young, small-framed SP that started to show shoulder problems which I praise the Twins in their management of his arm. Raya is a smart guy & that's why he's not fighting the Twins. His getting close to the MLB should not be the criteria for extending his innings. His body as it continues to get stronger should be the indicator. His ERA of 4.05 as they extend him is not eye-popping & IMO is not a green light to completely remove his innings limits. I'd prefer him entering the MLB as an opener than landing on the IL & set him back.

[ashbury]

Raya, Adams, and Canterino are 3 of the 21 pitchers on the 40-man who are likely to be non-factors in the Twins opening day 2025 plans.  Raya has as good a chance of any of these three to exceed expectations and make a case to be brought up late in the season.  Everything has to fall into place perfectly, though, including to demonstrate he can handle a big-league workload.  Even in a bullpen, it's harder than at AAA, and if he's a starter he has no margin for unreadiness if brought up.  All we can do is hope.  He's still so young!  I hate aspects of the MLB roster rules.

[gman]

4 hours ago, TL said:

Really looking forward to seeing him unleashed. He almost feels like an afterthought with Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, SWR getting more attention for rotation spots this year. But in terms of “top of the rotation” potential he’s got as much of it as anyone and if he has a strong start he could be an early call-up.

I agree, but who would he replace? If Paddack is not in the rotation.

[gman]

Hopefully this year is a choice among several good starters for the last spot in the rotation and next year even more so.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

Isn't this the debate that keeps coming back over and over again?   Baby the arm to prevent injuries as much as possible; as such, you never build up the arm to go any deeper than a prototype long reliever.  Build up the arm, and risk the arm injuries you are trying to avoid........has anyone won that debate yet?  🙃

Okay, the training wheels are off (are our training wheels ever off?).  Let the kid show what he has; if he is still so fragile he can't handle the load, find out now and work with him on becoming the best reliever he can be.  But a major league starter has got to pitch a lot more than 92 innings a season, so build him up or convert him.  

I can already feel the arrows coming.  😉

No arrow.  Sound advice

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Seems to be on the verge - although I would bet (other than a series of injuries) that he rocks it in '25 at St. Paul. You have to figure (unless they unload Paddock) that Festa and Matthews are ahead of him (I'm assuming SWR is the 4 or 5 Twins starting pitcher).

There always seems to be room for 10 SP during a season. Its awesome that we have viable options! Raya or anyone else could slot into a RP spot.

[TL]

1 hour ago, gman said:

I agree, but who would he replace? If Paddack is not in the rotation.

Realistically, injuries happen. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and is effective - so Raya (and one of Festa/SWR) don’t have a MLB spot - but I would bet a lot of money they’ll need to dip into their depth before end of April. 

[arby58]

33 minutes ago, TL said:

Realistically, injuries happen. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and is effective - so Raya (and one of Festa/SWR) don’t have a MLB spot - but I would bet a lot of money they’ll need to dip into their depth before end of April. 

I don't understand the 5 man rotation without either SWR or Festa. I would have it as Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddock - and if Paddock is traded, Festa. I'd also put Matthews in front of Raya in the AAA pecking order.

[Wizard11]

5 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

All these positive comments are giving me life this AM. Thanks for reading and engaging, y'all. Excited to see how he does in AAA in 2025.

Thanks for the article and the work you do.  It is really nice and refreshing to read primarily positive and hopeful comments. 

[Otaknam]

Unleash the Raya gun! 

[tony&rodney]

Really enjoyed watching Marco Raya pitch the last couple of years. This season will be interesting for Marco. I'm going to make the time to watch him on several occasions and hope he has an excellent campaign. I do expect him to be a late inning relief pitcher at some point, maybe next season.

[jkcarew]

12 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Twins were top half (tied for 13th) in average innings pitched per starter last year - and that was with two rookies having a lot of starts. The year before that they were tied for third. Baseball has definitely changed in terms of the role of starting pitchers, but the Twins actually exhibit less 'training wheel' mentality towards its starting pitchers of late than most MLB teams.

Which makes Raya’s treatment all the more curious. It’s been a Raya thing, not a Twins thing. The Twins themselves see Raya as different from the other recent starting prospects. I’ll believe he’s a real starting prospect when I see the Twins treating him like one.

[DocBauer]

In the weird, crazy year and draft that was 2020, I remember liking the Raya selection very much. More than any other selection that year. Right or wrong, fair or not, when I read about his stuff and his success, I saw another Berrios. I felt if he was 2" taller and 15lbs heavier, he would have been a 2nd round selection. I thought the Twins got a potential steal. And I was SO disappointed when he had a shoulder issue and was held out in 2021.

What's been so crazy about his career is that while he's been held back in regard to pitch count and innings thrown, the Twins have been VERY aggressive in promoting him. Despite all the consternation about how he's been used, he's at AAA ball as a 22yo! It's apparent they've felt his pure stuff and potential was so good they needed/wanted to move him up, while still limiting his workload.

IMO, despite being on the 40 man, the goal is to increase his workload in 2025, while still holding him back to let his talent and development and workload all coalesce for 2026, and maybe late 2025. Festa and Matthews are ahead of him. But I'd wager if someone else is needed, Morris or Lewis would probably be promoted before him...with an obvious 40 man move to add them...and possibly Adams as well, simply because 2025 is about stretching him out, harnessing his stuff, and refining his command and approach. The kid gloves come off this season, but there's still work to be done. I'm NOT saying he's going to be a STUD part of the future rotation at this point. Maybe he will be?? But they seem to see him as an unpolished diamond that they are willing to take a little more time to perfect. IF he spends the entire season in AAA this year, realize he'd make his debut in 2026 as a 23yo.

That's a pretty young rotation arm. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

Which makes Raya’s treatment all the more curious. It’s been a Raya thing, not a Twins thing. The Twins themselves see Raya as different from the other recent starting prospects. I’ll believe he’s a real starting prospect when I see the Twins treating him like one.

They keep advancing him and making him a starting pitcher. Those seem to be treating him like a starting pitcher. His innings per start were ramped up as the year went along last year - none of that suggests they view him as anything but a starting pitcher.

[jmlease1]

He's got a ton of talent. We'll see if he actually ends up throwing 6 pitches or if it's more like 4, but if he's finding things that will let him be effective against LH hitters, that's all to the good. Hopefully he can stretch out a little in AAA and start showing he can consistently go 5-6 innings every time out. He's got the stuff to get it done, I think.

Right now I have him behind Festa and Matthews for sure, but he and Adams will be battling for the right to be the 8th or 9th starter for the Twins in MLB. In some ways, a guy like Morris or Adams might be more "ready" but Raya's place on the 40-man means he's likely to get that shot this season. I'm in on it. Hopefully his shoulder holds up.

[IndianaTwin]

At SABR this past summer, the Twins brain trust was part of one of the panel discussions. What I was struck by was how they described their minor league development of pitchers. They said that for the first year/partial year, they largely try to keep guys in the same rhythm that they were used to and then they develop an individualized plan for each pitcher. 

On the surface, it looks like it’s worked very much according to plan for Raya. If you look at his game log from last year, he pitched every Friday night from April 5 to September 20. His pitch count very much shows a progression. In his first 12 games, he threw an average of 51 pitches, but even within that, you see a gradual increase. In his last 12 games, he threw an average of 71. 

That he gave up two earned runs in his last 20 innings and five in his last 34.1 suggests that something was working correctly. 

[jkcarew]

On 2/22/2025 at 9:01 PM, jkcarew said:

Which makes Raya’s treatment all the more curious. It’s been a Raya thing, not a Twins thing. The Twins themselves see Raya as different from the other recent starting prospects. I’ll believe he’s a real starting prospect when I see the Twins treating him like one.