New Twins Ownership Could Make a Splash by Locking Up Core Talent

[Cody Christie]

A new ownership group could mean franchise-altering decisions during the 2025 season. Whoever the new owners are, their first priority should be locking up key roster pieces.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and Matt Blewett–Imagn Images; Jonah Hinebaugh–USA TODAY NETWORK

A new era is coming for the Minnesota Twins. Sometime in the first half of 2025, the franchise is expected to change hands, and while the new ownership group’s vision remains unknown, one thing seems inevitable: they’ll want to make an immediate impact. One way to do that? Locking in the team’s core talent for years to come.

Extensions have long been a strategy for medium- and small-market teams to maintain competitiveness. By buying out arbitration years and securing players through their early free-agent seasons, the Twins can provide stability for the roster and the payroll. Minnesota saw the long-term benefits of this with Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, who signed team-friendly deals early in their careers. Here’s a look at the top extension candidates, as a new ownership group is on the horizon.

1. Joe Ryan - A Clear Priority
When the Twins acquired Ryan in the Nelson Cruz trade, few expected him to develop into one of the team’s top starters. However, since arriving in Minnesota, Ryan has established himself as a frontline pitcher while taking steps to improve his overall numbers. Last season, Ryan posted a 3.60 ERA (115 ERA+) with a 0.96 WHIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate. It was arguably his best season at the big-league level, thanks primarily to his emerging ability to fill up the strike zone; he walked a career-low 4.3% of opposing batters.

The 28-year-old is arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2025 (making $3 million) and won’t hit free agency until after the 2027 season. Locking him up now would provide cost certainty for a potential ace, a move the Twins failed to make with past arms like José Berríos. A five- or six-year deal could secure Ryan’s best years (especially for a player who was older when he debuted) while ensuring the rotation has a dependable anchor.

2. Bailey Ober - A Reliable Rotation Piece
Ober might not be as flashy as Ryan, but his importance to the Twins’ rotation can’t be overlooked. The 6-foot-9 right-hander has shown elite command, making him a stabilizing force for a team that has long battled pitching inconsistency. Over 178 2/3 innings last year, he posted a 3.98 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a career-high 191 strikeouts. His increased reliance on a devastating changeup and deceptive fastball has helped him keep hitters off-balance, leading to one of the lowest hard-hit rates among American League starters (83rd percentile).

Like Ryan, Ober was eligible for arbitration for the first time ($3.55 million), and a new deal could provide value for both sides. There have been some comparable extensions in recent seasons, including the five-year, $77-million deal Mitch Keller signed with the Pirates and the five-year, $64-million deal Cristian Javier signed with the Astros. Given his profile, a deal between those two price points might be a sweet spot. 

3. Royce Lewis - The Superstar Bet
If the Twins want to bet big on the future face of the franchise, Lewis is that guy. He’s shown MVP-level potential when healthy, delivering clutch moments and elite offensive production in limited action. In 2023, he posted a .921 OPS with 15 home runs and seven doubles in 58 games. However, injuries have clouded his long-term outlook and hurt his performance; he had a merely solid 107 OPS+ last season. 

Lewis reached arbitration this year and is set to make $1.625 million, but the Twins could try to lock him in early in his career. If the new ownership group believes in his durability, a long-term deal (perhaps in the seven- or eight-year range) could be their signature move.

4. Ryan Jeffers - Locking Down the Catching Position
The Twins don’t have a clear-cut catcher in the pipeline, and the catching market is always volatile. These two factors might open a new ownership group to an extension with Ryan Jeffers. His offensive breakout in 2023 and steady defensive work have positioned him as a legitimate everyday catcher. Jeffers took strides backward offensively and defensively last season, but the Twins might believe in his long-term value and potential performance. He played in a career-high 122 games and had a .791 OPS in the first half.

Minnesota has used a two-catcher rotation for years, so Jeffers would need another catching partner. He is in his second arbitration year ($4.55 million), meaning his price tag is only going up. Catchers with offensive upside don’t come cheap, so a deal in the three- or four-year range could provide security at a key position while keeping payroll flexibility intact.

A new ownership group means a fresh approach to roster building. If they want to make an immediate splash, prioritizing contract extensions for core players is a smart way to do it. Investing in homegrown talent has been a winning formula for many successful franchises, and perhaps the Twins’ next era will follow suit.

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How should the Twins prioritize these extensions? Are there any the team should avoid? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[ziggy]

We can hope the new ownership group treats the roster like a fantasy team ala Cohen and the Mets but most billionaires do not lose money on their investments. I like the idea of locking up Twins players for the players security as well as the Twins'. I am grateful for the Pohlad family for keeping the Twins in Minnesota and let's not forget at one time they signed the largest $$$ deal to a player (Puckett) in history. Lots of Twins Daily posters can't wait for new owners but like the saying goes....be careful for what you wish for, you just might get it.

[bean5302]

None of them are good candidates for an extension right now. You lock star core players up (guys who produce 4+ WAR) to buy out free agent years in the 20s, Not generally "good" players who you control through age 30.

Joe Ryan - Free agent age 32. Best season 3.1 fWAR. Ryan is an oft injured starter with a history of being good rather than great. His first half is often sparkling, and his second half is terrible. Extending guys into their mid 30s when you still have 3 years of team control isn't sound team strategy.

Bailey Ober - Free agent age 32. Best season 2.9 fWAR. Ober has become durable over the past few years, but the soft tosser's upside is questionable. If Ober loses any velocity, he'll likely be a back end rotation arm, and he's already under contract past age 30. 

Royce Lewis - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Constantly injured and the Twins can't figure out how to coach his throws so he has little defensive value. Lewis slumped hard down the stretch last year. The superstar might be in there, but he's made Byron Buxton look like iron.

Ryan Jeffers - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Jeffers is a mediocre catcher. Just a guy, not a guy you build your team around. With a league average bat in his prime, Jeffers has worked hard to adjust his game to stay relevant by massively cutting down his K rate from 36.9% in 2021 to 20.2% last year. Jeffers is basically Gary Sanchez.

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, ziggy said:

We can hope the new ownership group treats the roster like a fantasy team ala Cohen and the Mets but most billionaires do not lose money on their investments. I like the idea of locking up Twins players for the players security as well as the Twins'. I am grateful for the Pohlad family for keeping the Twins in Minnesota and let's not forget at one time they signed the largest $$$ deal to a player (Puckett) in history. Lots of Twins Daily posters can't wait for new owners but like the saying goes....be careful for what you wish for, you just might get it.

Can you imagine if the new owners tried to literally kill the franchise for a quick buck? Thank god for the Pohlads 🙏

[LambchoP]

I could see extensions for Ryan and Ober. Would really stabilize the rotation. They shouldn't get big money deals though as there are both injury and inconsistency concerns. If we can get them cheap on a team friendly deal then go for it. I need to see Lewis actually put together a full season before even thinking of an extension. We've seen flashes sure, but at this point we still don't know if he'll ever be durable enough to be a starter quality player. As far as Jeffers goes, I like him,but think his best years are past. If we're going to lock up a long term catcher I think we should look for a young defensive catcher with an average or better bat. Maybe look to free agency next year when Vasquez leaves. We don't have anyone in our system now that inspires much confidence.

[Parfigliano]

Today the only one I would definitely take this strategy on is Ober.  I would think about Jeffers but only because MLB level catchers are unicorns.

[gmwannabe]

100% agree with bean5302, no, no, no, and no!

[UK Twin]

The two players I would be most interested in signing long term, Lewis and Jenkins, will be the toughest as they are both Boras clients. Obviously we're some way off serious Jenkins discussions but I would at least be aiming to engage him and Boras pretty much as soon he reaches the big leagues. 

For any potential new owners, Lewis is the obvious player to target straight away. There may be risk attached to a long term deal, but at the same time this year could be the best year to do it because if he stays healthy he could easily take off and have a monster year. Then it becomes even harder.

[NYCTK]

Just now, UK Twin said:

The two players I would be most interested in signing long term, Lewis and Jenkins, will be the toughest as they are both Boras clients. Obviously we're some way off serious Jenkins discussions but I would at least be aiming to engage him and Boras pretty much as soon he reaches the big leagues. 

For any potential new owners, Lewis is the obvious player to target straight away. There may be risk attached to a long term deal, but at the same time this year could be the best year to do it because if he stays healthy he could easily take off and have a monster year. Then it becomes even harder.

Jenkins is the only one that I think is smart to entertain this sort of deal. Offer him he Chourio contract as soon as he seems like he's figured out AA. 

[JD-TWINS]

17 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

100% agree with bean5302, no, no, no, and no!

Potentially extend one of the two pitchers - for me, preferably Ober.

Ryan has yet to finish a season strong. Extending him now seems more risky than smart. 3 straight years of “fade”.

Lewis obviously has to put together at least 5 months in a season before any serious thought is put into extending him. 

Jeffers is a “guy” at this point. His first couple months of ‘24 were very positive at the plate. He was choking up with two strikes and his contact skills with 2 strikes were solid! This success came to a crashing end. Personally, I think he should choke up 100% of the time. He needs to barrel the ball consistently and he’s so strong, he hits the ball plenty hard/far - even when choking up. Needs consistency at plate to generate serious interest for a Team commitment. No interest in extending now.

16 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

100% agree with bean5302, no, no, no, and no!

[JD-TWINS]

17 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Jenkins is the only one that I think is smart to entertain this sort of deal. Offer him he Chourio contract as soon as he seems like he's figured out AA. 

He’s #2 prospect in Baseball. He’s 19, I think? For him to not at least get to the Show, his leverage seems to be at a low point for him. Organization may want to try it but I don’t see enough $$ until he has a touch of success.

[Doctor Gast]

I've always liked to be like ATL where they do a good job in player evaluation, drafting, development, trading & extending their players while avoiding FA as much as possible. I'd be willing to extend all of these players. Ryan, Ober & Lewis still have a lot of upside, so I'd try to get a deal on them by extending them. I'd be open to extending Jeffers if they could extend him as he is a backup catcher. But the Twins have hyped him up as a primary catcher & with Boras as his agent with Jeffers's good numbers as backup to make his overall numbers better, he's going to ask top starting catcher dollars. Which, I'm totally against another bad contract.

[Jocko87]

Except the entire design of the pitching pipeline is to get the best years under arbitration and let them go at 31-32.  Ober and Ryan will serve out their arb time.

As the pipeline improves, guys like Festa may be better candidates to control arb year costs but it's a tough business case to spend into the 30s if you can produce something in house.

Lewis is the hitter to sign if they believe in him being the dude. He was actually quite happy with his arb number as Boras apparently had him expecting less. He has to produce steadily to get paid in arb and buying out a few years might make sense. His value is at the low point.

Wallner might be buying low as well.

[TwinsDr2021]

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've always liked to be like ATL where they do a good job in player evaluation, drafting, development, trading & extending their players while avoiding FA as much as possible. I'd be willing to extend all of these players. Ryan, Ober & Lewis still have a lot of upside, so I'd try to get a deal on them by extending them. I'd be open to extending Jeffers if they could extend him as he is a backup catcher. But the Twins have hyped him up as a primary catcher & with Boras as his agent with Jeffers's good numbers as backup to make his overall numbers better, he's going to ask top starting catcher dollars. Which, I'm totally against another bad contract.

These guys are nothing like what Atlanta did.

Riley was going to be a FA in his age 29 season.(10 year 212 million)

Acuna was going to be a FA in his age 27 season. (8 year 100 million and could be a FA at age 31, with two club options prior)

Harris was going to be a FA in his age 27 season. (8 year 72 million and could be a FA at age 32, with two club options prior)

Albies was going to be a FA in his age 27 season.(7 year 35 million and could be a FA at age 31, ,with two club options prior)

Strider was going to be a FA in his age 29 season.(6 year 75 million and could be a FA at age 31, with one club options prior)

Murphy was going to be a FA in his age 31 season and better than Jeffers. (6 year 73 million and could be a FA at age 35, with one club options prior)

That is a over a half of billion dollars!

The Twins only guys that is close to any of top guys are Lee and SWR. And maybe a couple of guys in the minors. The Twins have not been good at what Atlanta has been doing at all, they have been good at driving down the players future earning by keeping them (or not getting good enough guys) in the minors in their early 20's thus avoiding having to pay them market value in their prime.

@bean5302 is 100% correct!

EDIT - I missed Matt Olson, he was going to be a FA in his age 30 season (8 year 168 million and could be a FA at age 37, with one club options prior)

[High heat]

Jenkins is the only one at this point if you can get a Longoria type deal.  
 

Lewis will never sign being already arb eligible and he’s had major injuries and often in available.  We don’t know if he can even hit for extended periods of time.  
 

You have Pablo and Correa and a few other core pieces under team control.  A good future appears ahead assuming continued development and health

[Linus]

Hard no across the board.  By definition guys that become free agents in their early thirties are ripe for a decline.  You got 6 cheap years from them including their prime.  If you really want to make them the QO otherwise you take your bargain and move on.  It’s actually a benefit of drafting mostly college players - they don’t hit free agency until you don’t want them anymore.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

None of them are good candidates for an extension right now. You lock star core players up (guys who produce 4+ WAR) to buy out free agent years in the 20s, Not generally "good" players who you control through age 30.

Joe Ryan - Free agent age 32. Best season 3.1 fWAR. Ryan is an oft injured starter with a history of being good rather than great. His first half is often sparkling, and his second half is terrible. Extending guys into their mid 30s when you still have 3 years of team control isn't sound team strategy.

Bailey Ober - Free agent age 32. Best season 2.9 fWAR. Ober has become durable over the past few years, but the soft tosser's upside is questionable. If Ober loses any velocity, he'll likely be a back end rotation arm, and he's already under contract past age 30. 

Royce Lewis - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Constantly injured and the Twins can't figure out how to coach his throws so he has little defensive value. Lewis slumped hard down the stretch last year. The superstar might be in there, but he's made Byron Buxton look like iron.

Ryan Jeffers - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Jeffers is a mediocre catcher. Just a guy, not a guy you build your team around. With a league average bat in his prime, Jeffers has worked hard to adjust his game to stay relevant by massively cutting down his K rate from 36.9% in 2021 to 20.2% last year. Jeffers is basically Gary Sanchez.

I fully agree.  The only reason to lock any of them up would be to get cost control set in.  If either have crazy good seasons they could start to get high arb numbers, but outside of Lewis that is unlikely. Neither Ryan or Ober should want to give away a year or two of FA without huge payoff.  Age 32 pitchers rarely get huge deals, and the ones that do are either on HOF path, or the deal is a huge problem. Jeffers will be at the point catcher offense fall off the cliff too. Lewis is the only one that could merit a large pay day at 30, but so far he is on the Buck path, not healthy enough to command huge deal and has not been consistent enough to know you can count on him year in and year out. His slump the end of the year really hurt his demand for a long term contract at this point. 

[Trov]

I do not know if it was the way the Pohalds wanted it or just the way the FO did it, but they almost never signed a guy pre-arb, unless it was to just buy out the arb years generally.  Very few teams are willing to sign long term deals pre-arb and they normally really only buy out 1 year of FA, unless they are very young guys.  

There is normally little point to sign a guy past his arb years unless he is a mega star, or will be FA around 27 to 28.  This is because most guys start to really regress around age 30 to 31 season.  If a player will not be FA until 30 why agree to pay for years they are regressing on pay of the non regression rate? The mid to low payroll teams work the CBA to their advantage that way.  They use up the young years and either let walk in FA or trade with a year to two of control left restocking system with young guys. The big payroll teams can afford to have guys being overpaid and move on. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

None of them are good candidates for an extension right now. You lock star core players up (guys who produce 4+ WAR) to buy out free agent years in the 20s, Not generally "good" players who you control through age 30.

Joe Ryan - Free agent age 32. Best season 3.1 fWAR. Ryan is an oft injured starter with a history of being good rather than great. His first half is often sparkling, and his second half is terrible. Extending guys into their mid 30s when you still have 3 years of team control isn't sound team strategy.

Bailey Ober - Free agent age 32. Best season 2.9 fWAR. Ober has become durable over the past few years, but the soft tosser's upside is questionable. If Ober loses any velocity, he'll likely be a back end rotation arm, and he's already under contract past age 30. 

Royce Lewis - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Constantly injured and the Twins can't figure out how to coach his throws so he has little defensive value. Lewis slumped hard down the stretch last year. The superstar might be in there, but he's made Byron Buxton look like iron.

Ryan Jeffers - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Jeffers is a mediocre catcher. Just a guy, not a guy you build your team around. With a league average bat in his prime, Jeffers has worked hard to adjust his game to stay relevant by massively cutting down his K rate from 36.9% in 2021 to 20.2% last year. Jeffers is basically Gary Sanchez.

A hard no on Lewis and Jeffers, unless you can get them on a very favorable extension with inexpensive team option years.

I like the idea of extending Ryan and Ober.  Quality pitching, even SP4/SP5 guys, is insanely expensive right now and will only keep going up.  There is a pretty good idea of their arbitration costs over the next few years.  You buy out one-two FA years at a below-market price, with possibly another market priced year that is a team option.  You aren't paying a premium for guys in their late 30's.  We are talking 4-5 year contracts, not 7-8.  There will always be risk in these types of deals, but this feels like acceptable risk IMO.

[Blyleven2011]

Start thinking outside the box  ...

go to the player and say we like you and want to extend you as you fit into our future , but we want you to work your tail off so we are going to extend some years of control with a base salary and if you work your tail off and reach a certain criteria we will pay you incentives  , the incentives would need to be hefty and more than the player would earn in arbitration or free agency  ...

Like I said work your tail off and make good money with the incentives  , 

Just a thought  ...

[DJL44]

Jeffers may be "just a guy" but extending him wouldn't be terribly expensive and the Twins don't have any other "guys" in the minors at catcher. It's either buy another season of Jeffers or buy another Christian Vazquez out of free agency. I'd rather buy Jeffers.

Duran was not mentioned, he's young enough and good enough that an extension makes sense. He hasn't made much money so far which means he might value the guaranteed money that comes with a 4-year deal. That still allows him to go on the free agent market at age 31.

I am not keen on paying top dollar for pitchers in their mid-30s. The Twins would probably be better off if they offer Ryan and Ober the QO instead of giving them a contract extension.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Start thinking outside the box  ...

go to the player and say we like you and want to extend you as you fit into our future , but we want you to work your tail off so we are going to extend some years of control with a base salary and if you work your tail off and reach a certain criteria we will pay you incentives  , the incentives would need to be hefty and more than the player would earn in arbitration or free agency  ...

Like I said work your tail off and make good money with the incentives  , 

Just a thought  ...

The arbitration process already pays out if they work like crazy and perform well.

[Blyleven2011]

Just now, DJL44 said:

The arbitration process already pays out if they work like crazy and perform well.

Yes they do get paid well if they perform , that is why I mentioned the incentives would have to be hefty well beyond what they would make in arb years or free agency  ... 

Base pay and performance incentives , if the player believes in himself and performs , he makes better than arb years and a couple of free agent years ...

[TwinsDr2021]

48 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A hard no on Lewis and Jeffers, unless you can get them on a very favorable extension with inexpensive team option years.

I like the idea of extending Ryan and Ober.  Quality pitching, even SP4/SP5 guys, is insanely expensive right now and will only keep going up.  There is a pretty good idea of their arbitration costs over the next few years.  You buy out one-two FA years at a below-market price, with possibly another market priced year that is a team option.  You aren't paying a premium for guys in their late 30's.  We are talking 4-5 year contracts, not 7-8.  There will always be risk in these types of deals, but this feels like acceptable risk IMO.

At what cost? they both will should earn over 10 in 26 and  over 14 in 27, so you is that 3 for 60? or the Lopez contract 4/73? Is that worth it, is it enough?

[Unwinder]

I think it really depends on how much the new owners intend to spend. All of these guys are definitely fine to extend if they're not going to rule out signing free agents later. none of them are without risk. Ober and Ryan are old for their experience level, but for the right deal, even if they end up holding down the back of the rotation at the end of their contract, it might be worth it. Jeffers isn't a superstar but catchers don't grow on trees. Lewis could be totally derailed by injury, but the front office would never live it down if he became a superstar elsewhere.

[IndianaTwin]

This isn’t a statement that’s pro- or anti-Falvey, but one of a new owner’s first jobs is likely going to be to determine who will be leading the front office. If the new ownership comes on board at any point during the season, I would expect they would let the season play out, including using that time to evaluate their comfort level with Falvey, et. al.

With that in mind, I don’t think many new owners would be inclined to hand out extensions until the future front office leadership is settled. 

(At least I hope a new owner doesn’t jump in so quickly as to get ahead of what the FO views as priorities. That sounds a little Cohenian.)

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A hard no on Lewis and Jeffers, unless you can get them on a very favorable extension with inexpensive team option years.

I like the idea of extending Ryan and Ober.  Quality pitching, even SP4/SP5 guys, is insanely expensive right now and will only keep going up.  There is a pretty good idea of their arbitration costs over the next few years.  You buy out one-two FA years at a below-market price, with possibly another market priced year that is a team option.  You aren't paying a premium for guys in their late 30's.  We are talking 4-5 year contracts, not 7-8.  There will always be risk in these types of deals, but this feels like acceptable risk IMO.

Eh, we've got 2 more years to decide on Ryan and Ober in regard to extending while under control with little risk of either of them getting much more expensive. If they decline, the Twins dodge a bullet. If they stay the same and SWR, Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Soto, Lewis or any other numbers of arms in the MiLB system turn out to be just as good or better, we don't need to extend them. The Twins might even be able to get a Comp pick in return by slapping Ryan or Ober with a QO.

There's just no good reason to extend them right now, IMHO.

[Otaknam]

Contract extensions are about cost certainty and trying to avoid future contracts that only a handful of teams can afford, like the Yankees and Dodgers. The players get life changing dollars, even if their careers go sideways or they get hurt. It can be a win win for mid market teams.  So it can make sense, like it did for Polanco and Kepler, both good decisions.

I don’t see Ryan as having the upside of an ace, but I think he can be a consistent 15 game winner with an ERA below 3.0, assuming Rocco lets him pitch deeper into games, which isn’t a given. And Ober seems to have FINALLY gained Rocco’s trust, and is pitching six innings and beyond on a consistent basis. So despite the negative comments here, I can see these two as extension candidates because starting pitching is the most difficult thing to develop. Lewis has shown  us his potential, despite his injuries and poor production during the last six weeks of 2024. So an extension isn’t a ridiculous move. A Jeffers extension is more complicated, IMO. But he is a major league catcher with power, and has shown the potential on both sides of the plate, despite his fall off last year. So I don’t think he’s a candidate for an extension right now. 

[Dman]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Eh, we've got 2 more years to decide on Ryan and Ober in regard to extending while under control with little risk of either of them getting much more expensive. If they decline, the Twins dodge a bullet. If they stay the same and SWR, Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Soto, Lewis or any other numbers of arms in the MiLB system turn out to be just as good or better, we don't need to extend them. The Twins might even be able to get a Comp pick in return by slapping Ryan or Ober with a QO.

There's just no good reason to extend them right now, IMHO.

I think you have this nailed.  No reason to extend any of those players except maybe Jenkins and he hasn't been healthy a whole season yet either.

The Twins will use the Guardian, A's, Tampa approach and likely sell off the older more expensive arms the closer they get to free agency to try and get more assets that can get it done cheaper.  It's a move'em in move em out philosophy based on a pipeline that has started to produce arms.

Twins aren't a team that is built to handle the risk of older players not working out by getting injured or falling off a cliff as they age with them holding the bag with little to nothing to show for it. They are better off transferring that risk trying to get younger and adding to the pipeline.  Granted there is risk there too, but when you have limited money to spend it seems the better alternative to me.

Bottom line avoid self inflicted wounds.  The whole central is moving to the Tampa approach.  Strong farm systems, locking up super young key players early, short term deals for older players, if spending big on a player longer term make sure they have a good health history and are a solid investment to productive through the contract, trade older players to restock the farm system and invest as much as possible into player development.

I just don't see the extensions for older type players in the cards for the mid to lower end market teams now or in the future.  If there was a cap and everyone had the same money to spend maybe that would change, but with the competition in the division doing the same things they need to get value when they trade their older more expensive players just to keep up in the Central IMO.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Contract extensions are about cost certainty and trying to avoid future contracts that only a handful of teams can afford, like the Yankees and Dodgers. The players get life changing dollars, even if their careers go sideways or they get hurt. It can be a win win for mid market teams.  So it can make sense, like it did for Polanco and Kepler, both good decisions.

I don’t see Ryan as having the upside of an ace, but I think he can be a consistent 15 game winner with an ERA below 3.0, assuming Rocco lets him pitch deeper into games, which isn’t a given. And Ober seems to have FINALLY gained Rocco’s trust, and is pitching six innings and beyond on a consistent basis. So despite the negative comments here, I can see these two as extension candidates because starting pitching is the most difficult thing to develop. Lewis has shown  us his potential, despite his injuries and poor production during the last six weeks of 2024. So an extension isn’t a ridiculous move. A Jeffers extension is more complicated, IMO. But he is a major league catcher with power, and has shown the potential on both sides of the plate, despite his fall off last year. So I don’t think he’s a candidate for an extension right now. 

I think contract extensions are about holding on to premium players at a discounted rate for elevated risk. How much of a discount is based on the risk taken. There is additional leverage for teams when the team is the exclusive employer available so it's like a stacked discount.