3 Potential Twins Trades for the Padres' Dylan Cease

[Cody Christie]

Rumors began to swirl last week that the Twins might be interested in trading for Dylan Cease. It will take quite a package of players to acquire him, so here are three ways the Twins can make it happen.

Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

As the offseason churns forward, the Minnesota Twins are actively looking for ways to bolster their roster for another playoff push in 2025. One potential avenue for improvement lies in acquiring Dylan Cease, the San Diego Padres ace and a proven frontline starter. Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported that the Twins and Padres have discussed multiple big-league trade opportunities, including Cease. 

Cease has finished in the top 5 for Cy Young voting in two seasons and could provide the Twins with the rotation anchor they need to contend deeper into October. However, landing Cease won’t come cheap and he’s on an expiring contract, which is something this front office hasn’t targeted before. Below are three potential trade scenarios the Twins could propose to pry Cease away from the Padres.

Trade Scenario 1: A Prospect-Laden Package
Twins Receive: SP Dylan Cease
Padres Receive: IF Luke Keaschall, SP C.J. Culpepper, OF Yasser Mercedes
This deal focuses on the future of the Padres, as they would receive three high-upside prospects in exchange for their ace. Keaschall, the Twins' second-round pick in 2023, projects as a versatile infielder with excellent bat-to-ball skills and defensive versatility. His stock is at a high point after a breakout campaign in 2024, where he posted a .903 OPS between High- and Double-A. Culpepper is a polished pitching prospect who has impressed in the lower minors with his control and strikeout potential. Meanwhile, Mercedes offers dynamic tools in the outfield, including speed and raw power, making him a potential high-impact player down the line.

For the Twins, the appeal is clear. Cease would slot in as the team’s ace, giving them a formidable 1-2 punch with Pablo López. It would be tough for any AL team to match this duo when it comes to matching up in the playoffs. By parting with this package of prospects, Minnesota would avoid sacrificing immediate big-league contributors while focusing on their contention window.

Trade Scenario 2: Big League Depth with Salary Offset
Twins Receive: SP Dylan Cease
Padres Receive: OF Trevor Larnach, SP Chris Paddack, SP Andrew Morris, UTL Austin Martin
In this scenario, the Padres acquire a blend of major league-ready talent and minor-league depth. Larnach, a former first-round pick, has shown flashes of his potential but hasn’t cemented himself as a regular in the Twins’ lineup. A change of scenery could unlock his offensive upside. Paddack is very familiar to Padres fans as he comes with some risk but could provide innings for San Diego if healthy while offsetting part of Cease’s salary. Morris, a rising pitching prospect, adds depth to the Padres’ farm system, and Martin’s versatility could make him a useful piece in their roster construction. San Diego has some holes in their roster’s backup roles, and this adds three players who can immediately join their 26-man roster for Opening Day.  

For the Twins, this deal is about maximizing their rotation’s potential without gutting their farm system entirely. Moving Paddack’s salary helps facilitate the trade, and Cease would immediately elevate the Twins’ pitching staff. Though Larnach and Martin have value, neither has a locked-in role with the team moving forward.

Trade Scenario 3: Starters and Salary Swap
Twins Receive: SP Dylan Cease
Padres Receive: IF José Miranda, C Christian Vázquez, SP Zebby Matthews, IF Edouard Julien
This proposal pairs controllable young players with a veteran to help offset Cease’s salary. Miranda has shown flashes of his potential, but injuries have impacted his overall production. He offers the Padres a controllable bat who could thrive with a fresh start. Vázquez’s inclusion provides a veteran presence and helps San Diego’s catching depth. There have been rumors that the Padres are interested in acquiring Vázquez. Matthews, a rising pitching prospect, adds to San Diego’s farm system, and Julien brings another big-league-ready left-handed bat with exceptional on-base skills and positional flexibility.

For Minnesota, acquiring Cease would justify moving multiple young, controllable pieces. The Twins would also lean on Ryan Jeffers to increase his time behind the plate, which would be a change in philosophy for a team that has relied on a catching duo. This deal demonstrates an evident “win-now” mentality while giving the Padres a mix of current contributors and long-term assets.

Cease represents a rare opportunity for the Twins to acquire a true ace without entering the free-agent frenzy. The Twins also expected to have a new owner during the 2025 season, which could allow Minnesota to approach Cease with a long-term contract extension. 

While the cost of any trade will be steep, Minnesota’s front office has the pieces to construct a deal that works for both sides. Whether it’s a prospect-heavy package, a blend of big-league contributors and salary relief, or a mix of young stars and veterans, the Twins have multiple paths to land Cease and fortify their rotation for 2024 and beyond. The question is whether the Padres are willing to deal their star pitcher and if the Twins are ready to make a bold move to win the offseason.

Which trade works best for both teams? Would the Twins need to include more in a trade? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[FargoFanMan]

Maybe #3. But I highly doubt it. The rest don’t make any sense if you go look at the Padres holes they are trying to fill. They want ML players unless they can get a ML ready top 100 prospect. Their holes are at LF, C and SP. Remember that they are trying to compete with the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks. Not the Royals, Guardians and Tigers. Let’s try again. Ready…..Go! 

[Original_JB]

None of the above, especially for a one year rental. Even with a sign and trade, which isn't happening under current ownership.

[Joe A. Preusser]

2 or 3 works for me.  I know he's a rental, but he would be the absolute best No. 4 in MLB.  That rotation wins 95. 

[The Mad King]

Don't hate me, but I don't want to see his mustache every five days

[tony&rodney]

The Dylan Cease saga feels pretty worn by now after a couple of thousand views and two hundred comments to date on TD. Nevertheless, it is good to see a TD writer weigh in with specific ideas. I appreciate that.

Trade #3 is probably pretty close to what Preller can accept, although it isn't what he wants at this time. The Twins have some young SP and could provide a fair return provided the Dodgers don't step in and offer three or four guys who are working their way back from arm injuries, all of them with tremendous upside.

A SP, either SWR or Matthews, a LF like Larnach or an infielder like Julien and if Vazquez is a part of the deal the Twins add about $4M.

Preller will hold out waiting for other teams to bring their offers.

[ddubbl1]

Scenario #3 works for me!!! anything to get rid of Julien and Vasquez diesnt hit homers, and Miranda needs more work. yep..#3 is great.

get it done ASAP!!!!

[DannySD]

I think it takes something like Vasquez, SWR, Raya/Soto to get Cease (plus a Falvey lottery ticket). Factor in Vasquez salary relief, and that we can either trade him again at the deadline or get a comp pick when he leaves. 

I'd like our chances in October a lot more with that rotation. 

[ashbury]

7 minutes ago, DannySD said:

I'd like our chances in October a lot more with that rotation. 

Have you by any chance looked at Dylan Cease's post-season resume?  😀

[arby58]

My guess is SD wants more than 3, and that is the only deal I'd be offering if I were the Twins. One year rentals are for teams that are legitimate WS contenders. Given the Twins injury concerns among their core offensive players, lack of a right-handed 'big bat' for a corner OF spot or IB, I just don't see it. If the Twins can fill a couple of those holes, their young starting pitching/established pitching might look really good in 2026, especially if Emma/Walker arrive in earnest at that time.

[jorgenswest]

The return would be Cease and a comp pick. I think the most valuable piece listed is Keaschall. I would be willing to deal Keaschall plus an arm for a year of Cease and a comp pick. I think that deal would be most comparable to the deal for Burnes and competitive enough to get the ears of the Padres as they listen to the interest from other teams.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Scenario #1:  You only do this if you are convinced that Keashall will never be needed and that Brooks Lee/Eduard Julien will lock down second base for the next several years.  Mercedes is a player who may not be needed with Jenkins and Rodriguez coming.  Culpepper seems no more or less likely to succeed than several other prospects and you have to give up something to get something.        

Scenario #2:  You trade Larnach if you think ERod is ready to go.  For me Morris=Culpepper, solid prospect but relatively equal and you are giving up something to get something.  Paddack is a salary dump.  Austin Martin is probably a spare part at this point (but maybe not), so it makes a roster spot available.                    

Scenario #3:  Vasquez is why you are making the trade, to trim salary, but you better have another catcher lined up to sign or trade for.  Zebby Matthew’s seems like a he is a step above the aforementioned prospect pitchers to me.  Trading BOTH Miranda and Julien leaves the team with no first baseman at all, unless there are some plans we don’t know about.                
 

For me, scenario #2 makes the most sense, but others may disagree.  I do think that supplying FOUR players who are at/near major league level is a lot to pay for a one year rental, no matter how good you think he might be (and he’s not Skobel or Skenes good).  I probably don’t pull the trigger and make the trade, but that’s why I’m just the band guy and not the GM.        

[Rod Carews Birthday]

By the way, what’s a “true ace” anyway?  Is that a top ten guy?  Top twenty guy?  Good #1 starter.  Sometimes it seems like we talk about Lopez like he is an ace but other times he doesn’t seem to qualify.  I personally think he’s pretty darn good, so I’m willing to go with it.  

Sometimes I think that a “true ace” is that guy we don’t have and we like to throw around the term to make people excited about a trade.  

[Blyleven2011]

I did not read it entirely yet but  when  I saw keashall and the others  named in the first  proposal for cease , my thought was no way do we sacrifice our future for 1 year of cease ...

Really we don't need pitching when it's our inconsistent lineup that need the attention  ...

When the FO has made trades  , they've added players with control when trading off prospects  , I just don't think the FO should do this trade for 1 year of cease  , if we were true contenders then it's a yes ...

They first have to find away for the lineup to be consistent and we've seen the past few seasons  where they are streaky , streaky , streaky  ....

You get the whole team working in harmony , then you deal for an ace as the final piece for a push to the world series , not until then ...

[FargoFanMan]

12 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I did not read it entirely yet but  when  I saw keashall and the others  named in the first  proposal for cease , my thought was no way do we sacrifice our future for 1 year of cease ...

Really we don't need pitching when it's our inconsistent lineup that need the attention  ...

When the FO has made trades  , they've added players with control when trading off prospects  , I just don't think the FO should do this trade for 1 year of cease  , if we were true contenders then it's a yes ...

They first have to find away for the lineup to be consistent and we've seen the past few seasons  where they are streaky , streaky , streaky  ....

You get the whole team working in harmony , then you deal for an ace as the final piece for a push to the world series , not until then ...

What if Keaschall never puts up more than a 3 WAR season in his career and Cease makes us contenders? Luke Keaschall is not the future. Neither is Emma. They are good prospects but in no way are they future stars. Cease is a top of the rotation pitcher right now. He helps you win this year. The future star is Jenkins. He’s not going anywhere. Keaschall is more than likely the next Eddie Rosario and Emma is more than likely the next Max Kepler. Solid players but not all stars. They don’t really help this year either. The window is open now. Play for today. Not for 2 years from now. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 minute ago, FargoFanMan said:

What if Keaschall never puts up more than a 3 WAR season in his career and Cease makes us contenders? Luke Keaschall is not the future. Neither is Emma. They are good prospects but in no way are they future stars. Cease is a top of the rotation pitcher right now. He helps you win this year. The future star is Jenkins. He’s not going anywhere. Keaschall is more than likely the next Eddie Rosario and Emma is more than likely the next Max Kepler. Solid players but not all stars. They don’t really help this year either. The window is open now. Play for today. Not for 2 years from now. 

I'd like to play for today , but this team is way out in left field , we are not contenders quite yet until we fix some holes and the team starts playing with more consistency  , look , we can beat teams that don't play 500 baseball  , but we can't beat the elite teams during the season ...

Keashall is ranked in the top 100 prospects  , he may be a flop or he may be an above average player , we've invested in him so I'd like to see what he is capable of ...

If the twins could sign cease to an extension  , then by all means , make a trade , but for 1 year of service ,it would be foolish to trade away potential propects ....

Potential is the key word  , we never know how they are going to turn out , some of our current rookies the past few years hasn't encouraged me yet  , I hope the rookies( less than 3 seasons of playing )  play better this season  ...

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

What if Keaschall never puts up more than a 3 WAR season in his career and Cease makes us contenders? Luke Keaschall is not the future. Neither is Emma. They are good prospects but in no way are they future stars. Cease is a top of the rotation pitcher right now. He helps you win this year.

Dylan Cease is a very good pitcher. Nobody should dispute that statement. However, Cease will be a free agent and the Twins are not going to sign him to a Corbin Burnes type contract. The bump from Festa to Cease is likely two wins. This is important but not something to send a potential everyday player down the road. You are correct that Keaschall could flame out but he doesn't need to be much more than a 2 WAR player for several years to eclipse Cease's value to a team this year. Cease is not a player to tip the balance in a season. That player is Juan Soto.

A number of people are willing to trade significant players in order to add Cease but this is not a case of must have. In any event, San Diego has not added merely prospects in recent trades. They are willing to discuss Cease because they have specific needs that can really only be accomplished via trades due to their current concern with controlling the roster payroll. Sadly that sounds familiar.

Preller wants a young controllable SP who has pitched in MLB. That means one of Ober, Ryan, Festa, SWR, or Matthews. I highly doubt the Twins are listening on Ober or Ryan. Next the Padres need a LF. Here they may be interested in either Larnach or Castro, but asking about Wallner. San Diego also needs a DH/1B which could be Julien or Miranda.  After that a mid level minor league OF or SP is an ask. That is a bundle and not all of that will happen so Preller will search.

There are not too many teams out there willing to trade a young MLB SP, so it is going to be a struggle for Preller to find a fit. San Diego needs to make some moves, Minnesota wants to make a deal. Falvey has the upper hand here and needs to use it or walk away.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, FargoFanMan said:

He’s not going anywhere. Keaschall is more than likely the next Eddie Rosario and Emma is more than likely the next Max Kepler.

Look at their minor league results at similar ages.  Neither comp is especially close with the bat 

I'm one of the bigger ERod skeptics at this site, and I was woofing for Kepler from the start, but Max was much less compelling as a prospect.

[Brandon]

I would think Larnarch, Woods-Richardson and Vazquez would be more than enough as we get out of Vazquez contract and replace Cease with a low cost starter who can compete.  We might need a low level prospect back in the deal too to balance things and Larnarch is a low cost Profar replacement in LF.  

[Fatbat]

Vasquez, Paddack, Julien, CJ Culpepper and Kalai Rosario. 4 fringe long term MLB guys with upside. Cease and his agent should be willing to sign a long term deal. He will be getting a QO. New ownership will welcome the house cleaning and invest in winning. Cease signs 4 years $100M or so. 

[Twinsgypsy]

11 hours ago, Original_JB said:

None of the above, especially for a one year rental. Even with a sign and trade, which isn't happening under current ownership.

The previous rumors of trading our back up catcher with a good prospect seems like  a better idea 

[Fezig]

Unless Cease get's hit contract extended I'm not big on any of the trades. Although, if there were more Julien level players included I'd be more willing to listen. 

[TL]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

I would think Larnarch, Woods-Richardson and Vazquez would be more than enough as we get out of Vazquez contract and replace Cease with a low cost starter who can compete.  We might need a low level prospect back in the deal too to balance things and Larnarch is a low cost Profar replacement in LF.  

This is the way. Larnach has found something but is already in arbitration and likely getting bypassed by 2026. SWR looks very valuable - and his value will likely never be higher given his low cost for next 2 years. This is the time to cash in on him given the pipeline we (may) have coming. 

[CRF]

Cease isn't coming here in a trade deal. Even if that somehow happened, he's not going to put us over the top anyway. We need more than that to get to the next level. Get the ownership settled, get some money to spend, and then worry about adding players. 

[Finlander]

I'm not fond of any of the 3 choices. Brandon's post describes exactly what I've proposed in other TD posts. SD will want a MLB SP back, and they really need a LF. They've already shown interest in Vasquez. I also had included a variation of Vasquez/Larnach/SWR to add a lottery ticket to obtain a backup catcher (Maldonado?) to protect Jeffers.

Rosario comp for Keashall seems off. My comp is closer to Brian Dozier. Solid pop and speed, maybe a better eye, and adequate enough to man 2B. I'd hope he impresses in spring training to push Julien, Miranda and Lee. I don't like dealing him. And he doesn't seem to be a fit for SD anyway, unless Preller flips him. They really need OF help, and we have a few on the way.

Cease has earned some CY votes in recent years. Numbers are consistent. And he hasn't missed a start in 4 years. It's a rare opportunity to have a SP like this available (I think at a salary lower than Luis Arraez'), and we'll have to compete with offers from other suitors. Makes sense to put an offer together that has affordable talent (i.e., SD says no to Paddack), meets positional needs of SD, with Twins departures able to be backfilled. In the case of Larnach and SWR, I believe MN is okay. Vasquez replacement will need some careful consideration. 

MLB shredder calls Cease the 9th best SP in baseball. His 2025 salary is 10-15M less than his AAV will be going forward. Twins have the most talent in the division, and absolutely should be expecting some playoff games. Make a run at Cease for one year, extend the QO and take the comp pick for 2026. 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm sorry to break this to you guys but I think all this is a ruse. IMO Preller called up Tingler to make up this story to increase interest in Cease & Twins, Vazquez. Besides a small blimp on MLBTrade Rumors, I've heard nothing on the national social media not even SD websites. No announcements or comments from the Twins, nothing, only TD & possibly Twins X have been buzzing. News like this concerning Cease would light up all national social media & TV, I just haven't seen it. From the beginning, the trade didn't make sense.

[Otaknam]

While Cease would be fantastic in the rotation, is Cease  the missing piece to get the team to the World Series, like the Jack Morris signing was? I don’t think so, given the collapse at the end of 2024.  That said, proposal number one makes no sense for a one year rental of Cease.  Keaschall and his right handed bat ready to help this year and should be off limits in a trade. Also Mercedes has an upside 2-3 years out that I would hate to lose. The other trades might be ok, especially if it includes Vasquez and his ludicrous contract. But I doubt San Diego would consider proposals 2 or 3, though a trade that includes Larnach would be more feasible, suince he is in his prime.

[LambchoP]

I don't think we're getting Cease but it's fun to dream. He is only a rental and we aren't signing him long term so we have to look at him as a one year and done, plus a QO draft pick. SD has some interest in Vasquez. I don't think Vasquez and a near ready MLB pitcher like Mathews, Raya or Adams gets it done. What if we pay down half of Vasquez's salary?

Vasquez and 5 million dollars 

Mathews/Raya/Adams C. Lewis

Does that get it done? Maybe throw in a AA or A good looking prospect.

 

 

[Otaknam]

1 hour ago, TL said:

This is the way. Larnach has found something but is already in arbitration and likely getting bypassed by 2026. SWR looks very valuable - and his value will likely never be higher given his low cost for next 2 years. This is the time to cash in on him given the pipeline we (may) have coming. 

I don’t think SWR’s value is that high. Right now his upside is as a number five starter who might give you five innings. Unless his velocity improves to a consistent 95 or higher or his secondary pitches become better, he’s locked into a number five starter IMO.

 

[MesaTwinsFan]

All of these  packages have problems. Starring with getting rid of Miranda who when healthy is one of the most productive players on the roster. Look at his rookie year he was neck and neck with E-Rod for Rookie of the year Stat wise until minor injuries. Work on his 1B defense. Bring Tom Kelly into spring training. Look what he did to Hrbek and Mienkevich (pardon the spelling).. Miranda Canbe reasonable 1B. Load a package of Martin Fiesta Jullian Raya and Vasquez.. ask for a high ceiling prospect with Cease