The Minnesota Twins Need to Trade a Left-Handed Hitting Outfielder Now

[Matthew Lenz]

Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are too similar to be mainstays in the lineup over the long term. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins paint a pretty clear picture; it's not hard to decide which one the team should trade.

Image courtesy of © John Leyba-Imagn Images

Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach being left-handed hitters really isn’t the issue. Rather, while it’s still a relatively small sample, neither player has shown an ability to be remotely serviceable against left-handed pitching. With the Twins' penchant to play matchups, it’s not feasible to have two players that profile so similarly. That would require more than one right-handed-hitting, corner outfield bat on the bench. When it’s all said and done, the Twins are going to need to trade one of the two, and ZiPS projects one to far outperform the other.

Szymborski's model projects Wallner to be a valuable slugger in 2025 and over the next three years, with a projected three-year OPS+ 15 points higher than Larnach's. Considering those projections, coupled with the fact that Wallner is the superior defender, the Twins should look to move on from Larnach sooner rather than later. The former first-round pick is coming off a career year, wherein he slashed .259/.338/.434 with 15 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk rates, but ZiPS projects him to fall short of those numbers in 2025. Larnach's not a truly poor hitter. The models like him to be a slightly above-average hitter in 2025 and over the next three years, with 106 and 105 OPS+ marks, respectively. That's a bit weak for a corner outfielder, though. 

With three years of team control remaining and ZiPS roughly projecting his 2024 season to be the norm from a production standpoint, Larnach's value now is higher than it may ever be again. While there may be more teams interested in a former top prospect entering his age-28 season, the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves are two teams who have specifically identified a need for a left-handed hitting outfielder. With some of the top names that fit this bill (like switch-hitter Anthony Santander, Michael Conforto, and yes, Max Kepler) off the market, the Astros and Braves are left to fight over Jurickson Profar or less attractive options. Given both teams' plans to contend in 2025, and the Astros' preference for a more cost-effective approach, Larnach could be a valuable asset for either club. While I won’t put together specific trade packages, I will identify players from both teams who would be attainable and could help the Twins in 2025.

Astros
The Astros are $3 million above the CBT and could be looking to dip below that threshold. Larnach, costing $2.1 million in 2025, would be a cost-effective solution. Mauricio Dubon, a classic Falvey/Baldelli (Falvelli??) utility player who can play all around the diamond while being a plus at the plate, will cost $5 million in 2025. While this isn’t a perfect fit (as it wouldn't get the Astros under the CBT threshold and the Twins aren’t looking to add money), it has the framework to help both teams accomplish their goals, whether it be through a larger deal or dealing with other teams. Another roster fit, this time a little closer to 1:1 from a salary standpoint, is right-handed hitting corner outfielder Jake Meyers, which is a need for the Twins whether they move Larnach or not.

Braves
It’s a little harder to see a deal with the Braves come to fruition that would help the Twins win in 2025. They likely don’t have any cheap bullpen arms available and any available hitter would likely be a downgrade from Larnach. They do have two pre-arbitration utility players in Nick Allen and Eli White, although neither player jumps off the page as anything more than a defensive replacement off the bench. Acquiring either of those players would require the Braves, who don’t have a strong farm system after their top 5 guys, to throw in additional assets for it to make sense for the Twins.

Those likely aren’t the only two teams who would be interested in Larnach given his prospect pedigree coupled with his 2024 season and controllability, but those are two that have publicly stated they’re interested in a left-handed hitting outfielder. Bottom line for the Twins: Based on 2024 and his future projections, Larnach’s value is at its highest point, and the cash-strapped Twins need to capitalize on that value now.

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What are your thoughts on trading Larnach? Would you rather see Wallner dealt? Or neither? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Jocko87]

Who’s on first?

Who? 

First base.

And so forth. 

[chpettit19]

Dubon is not a plus at the plate. He's never had an OPS+ over 100, with 2020 being the only "season" he even reached 100. Since then he's gone 76, 61, 97, 88. Trading Larnach for a poor man's Willi Castro doesn't seem like a good trade. Jake Meyers is also a below average bat who isn't especially good against lefties. He would improve the defense compared to what Margot did, but trading Larnach for a platoon righty feels like a bad strategy considering 75% of pitchers are right handed.

Confused why you would suggest these 2 bats and then follow it up with the Braves being hard to match with because all their bats would be a downgrade. Dubon and Meyers are both massive downgrades with the bat.

Nick Allen is not an MLB quality player. He's a worse hitter than Vazquez. White had a nice 35 games last year, but in his 4 tastes before that hasn't shown to be an MLB quality player either. It's why 2 other playoff teams didn't give him any meaningful run in 5 years.

As for trading Larnach in general, if it upgrades the team by all means move him. But there's no reason to trade him just because he hits left handed. This is the problem with the Twins overuse of the platoon. You're suggesting making the team worse simply because they have 2 guys who both can hit but stand in the "wrong" batters box. Even though 75% of the pitchers in baseball are right handed. Nonsense.

[MinnesotaTwins26]

We could call up Emmanuel Rodriguez.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Trading Larnach has entered my thoughts as well. Always best to sell high. But as far as the suggested returns given here, no, We'd essentially be giving Larnach away. No need for that. I agree that Wallner is only going to get better. He had his rough 2024 start and learned something.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think this is a trade situation that doesn’t make any sense until at least the trade deadline this summer.  IF at that point Emma is needing a permanent position, THEN you look at making a trade, probably for a relief pitcher, at that time.  That also gives you time to figure out if Wallner or Larnach is the guy to trade, based on production and return.  Time to hold the cards on this one.  

[CRF]

They didn't do it when Kep was here...they probably won't do it now either.

[tony&rodney]

Wow. How did you come up those returns? Larnach, or any player, are business assets (doesn't that sound rude) to deal as a regular part of baseball activity when trying to improve the roster. Trading Larnach for players who are not as good? No.

Also, the idea of too many left-handed hitting outfielders is a story to kill once and for all. Emmanuel Rodriguez (unless traded) and Walker Jenkins are on their way to MLB and they bat lefty as well. Oliva, Carew, Mauer, and Morneau were left-handed as well. I have no problem with trading Larnach but it isn't because he bats left-handed. 

[Craig Arko]

Or there will be catastrophic repercussions?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 minutes ago, CRF said:

They didn't do it when Kep was here...they probably won't do it now either.

Good point, except the Twins needed Kep for the pennant race they were in in 2024. How did that work out? 

[Riverbrian]

When I was younger... I had an idea to mass produce 30 grit toilet paper. In hindsight... that was a really bad idea. 

This article is an even worse idea. 

Matthew Lenz... Umm... George Constanza... Do the opposite... your instincts are wrong.

Have the Chicken Salad on Rye. 

[Fatbat]

At 27, Larnach could end up ops+125 for the next 5-7 years. Only a fool would trade him when he makes 2.1M

[bean5302]

Wallner and Larnach are not similar hitters, but neither is likely to be good at something they're never asked to do or practice.

Worth noting, LHP throw about 25% of innings in MLB. Therefore, the Twins really need to trade every single one of their right handed batters away!

[DocBauer]

This is just preposterous! 70-75 % of ALL pitching is RH! And we want to fall deeper in to the trap of too much platooning?

Part of the young players not facing enough LHP is a trap already set. Wallner got more time against LHP in 2024 because Kepler was hurt. Platooning, to some degree, makes sense. I'd LOVE a decent, solid, RHOF who doesn't STINK against RHP to give Larnach and Wallner a break, and have them coming off the bench as needed. There's still a few guys waiting for jobs we might bring in cheap in the next couple of weeks. But trading Larnach because he's good, might be better yet, and move him BECAUSE he bats from the strong side is beyond ridiculous!

Between Rodriguez this season, and POSSIBLY Jenkins in 2026, I can see a move of Larnach. But not NOW.

BTW, I'm just sick and tired of the ongoing mantra that the Twins need a RHOF to play CF for when Buxton needs a day off, or is injured. WHY? Why do the Twins need a RH option when Buxton sits or is injured? Does the league suddenly throw nothing but LHSP against the Twins? Is there some bizarre TWIGHLIGHT ZONE scenario where only LHSP face the Twins?

OK, I have a certain angst in this situation, LOL. But if Keirsey finally gets a chance to be a ML player who can cover CF adequately, play the corner spots as well, and be a viable PR, what's wrong with him hitting LH? If Buck is out for 2 weeks, I'd rather have a LH hitting OF who plays good defense in his stead vs another Margot! We're still talking about 70-75% of all arms throwing from the RH side. Can we just STOP once and for all about the NEED for a RHOF to back up Buxton.

 

[dxpavelka]

They've had a surplus of left hand hitting corner OFs for quite some time now. 

[twinstalker]

Pretty sure the Twins don't need to trade a lh hitting OF.  They needed to for years, but of course that would have meant optimizing asset management, and they've truly shown an allergic reaction to that.

[stringer bell]

If Wallner projects to be a much better player and the team has control over him for two additional years, wouldn't he be able to garner much more in a trade? If the Twins want legitimate talent with control for a player or players, they might have to part with more than Larnach. 

I agree with analysis that projects Wallner as the better overall player, but if they have to trade one and want to bring in enough talent for 2025 and the immediate future, it might make sense to trade the guy with the higher upside.

[h2oface]

Or they could both just work on hitting lefties all off season(s) and be a full time player, and the Twins get their prime instead of trading it away for a righthander that doesn't hit like Margot. Or the new owner will fire Falvey and Baldelli and the incessant managing with no intuition is gone and over, and the new plan is to have complete players.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If Wallner projects to be a much better player and the team has control over him for two additional years, wouldn't he be able to garner much more in a trade? If the Twins want legitimate talent with control for a player or players, they might have to part with more than Larnach. 

I agree with analysis that projects Wallner as the better overall player, but if they have to trade one and want to bring in enough talent for 2025 and the immediate future, it might make sense to trade the guy with the higher upside.

The problem is that the Twins need bats and catchers. I'm not fixated on RH/LH. I'm pretty sure the Twins could trade Wallner to Pittsburgh for Jared Jones or maybe even get both Bubba Chandler and Endy Rodriguez for Wallner plus Cory Lewis, but that merely reduces the offense. The good bats are not very easily found. A number of people would like Austin Hays but i'm not sure that is the answer. Right now the only bat I want to trade for is unproven and almost certainly not available. I'm interested in who other people feel is available.

My gut tell me that Luke Keaschall and Emmanuel Rodriguez are going to be good as soon as June.

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

They've had a surplus of left hand hitting corner OFs for quite some time now. 

The Twins have never had a surplus of anything. They have never had a log jam. 

They have barely had a position of strength. 

[Fezig]

Two WS championship teams. Both of those had three RH hitting outfielder that started a majority of the games. They faced RH pitching a majority of the time. 

Rocco can change his game a little to the roster that he has (he most likely won't cuz he's not good) and the two similar outfielders should work their arse off to identify pitches coming out of the hands of LH pitchers. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

I can see where you are coming from, Matthew. IMO a good-hitting LH Ofer is a premium but I don't see the rush to trade Larnach. If at the deadline a too-good-to-refuse deal came across our path then yeah. To trade just to trade isn't the answer we need to capitalize.

[Riverbrian]

I am not exaggerating... I am not making a joke... What I'm about to say... The statement below... can't be argued. 

In terms of development... The Minnesota Twins are at the very bottom when it comes to developing left handed hitters against left handed pitching.

It's not close. As an organization... they are quite some distance from the #29 team.

Despite our top hitting prospects recently being left handed hitters. Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Julien, They have failed to produce ONE that can hit left handed hitting or allowed to hit left handed hitting.  

This is development failure taking place with an organization that can't afford to pay for players developed by other organizations. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

The only real substantial need we have is a bonafide future catcher. MLB-ready with real potential, nothing we have right now will cut it. So we have someone to aid Jeffers when he starts to wane & to gain experience to take over for Vazquez & Jeffers when they're gone. I'd be open to trading Larnach for such a player, injunction & or a 3-way trade if necessary. I like Larnach but he's replaceable both Keirsey & Emma are LH, better fielders & potential to be as good or better hitters respectfully. I am willing to wait for the deadline if need be. Such a player is an absolute necessity still I'd prefer to trade Julien over Larnach.

[Riverbrian]

Son: Dad, I'd like to juggle. 

Dad: You can't juggle!!! Put those damn oranges down!!!

Go get your sister... Never Juggle without her!

She will handle one of the oranges at all times.  

 

[Riverbrian]

Son: Dad... I spilled Grape Juice on the couch. 

Dad: Don't touch it... If we wait long enough... it will set. 

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins have never had a surplus of anything. They have never had a log jam. 

They have barely had a position of strength. 

Larnach, Wallner AND Kepler for two years.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, dxpavelka said:

Larnach, Wallner AND Kepler for two years.

Don't forget Kirilloff. You sell your point short. Don't forget about Gordon. Include the pending arrival Emma and Jenkins. 

Include them all. Still... Barely a position of strength.

Apart from two months in 2023 never to be seen again. Max Kepler had nearly 900 Below Average AB's.

What an amazing log Max Kepler was. 

 

 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Don't forget Kirilloff. You sell your point short. Don't forget about Gordon. Include the pending arrival Emma and Jenkins. 

Include them all. Still... Barely a position of strength.

Apart from two months in 2023 never to be seen again. Max Kepler had nearly 900 Below Average AB's.

What an amazing log Max Kepler was. 

 

 

And, luckily for the Twins, MLB instituted a designated hitter position in the AL in 1973 so the Twins were able to squeeze all 3 guys into the lineup if they wanted to. You know, when Wallner wasn't demoted or Kepler or Larnach weren't hurt.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner and Larnach are not similar hitters, but neither is likely to be good at something they're never asked to do or practice.

Worth noting, LHP throw about 25% of innings in MLB. Therefore, the Twins really need to trade every single one of their right handed batters away!

The article’s premise is flawed IMO! As you point out, nearly 75% of pitchers are Right Handed. Why would Team trade away one of two productive LH hitting OF, at least until after they are sure Emma is going to be successful at the MLB level?

Shiny new toy syndrome.

Wallner has a shot to be a star producer with further refinement.

Been waiting for Larnach to “develop into draft expectations” for 3-4 years. He has a respectable year in ‘24 and we want to trade him for a guy that can be more effective against 25% of opponents pitchers? And/or to bring somebody else up and hope they can perform as a Rookie.