The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2025: Part 4 (1-5)

[Nick Nelson]

Our countdown of the top 20 most indispensable players in the Twins organization, majors and minors, concludes today as we highlight our picks for the top five.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and Matt Blewett–Imagn Images; Jonah Hinebaugh–USA TODAY NETWORK

You can get a full explanation for the parameters used to develop this list in Monday's intro post, but the short version is this. We're answering the question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? To rank Twins players and prospects, I account for age, contract, controllability, upside, and more. 

Here's how the list has shaken out so far in Part 1 (16-20), Part 2 (11-15) and Part 3 (6-10): 

• 20. Edouard Julien, 2B
• 19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
• 18. Marco Raya, RHP
• 17. José Miranda, 3B/1B
• 16. Carlos Correa, SS
• 15. Ryan Jeffers, C
• 14. Trevor Larnach, LF
• 13. Luke Keaschall, CF/2B
• 12. Zebby Matthews, RHP
• 11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
• 10. Griffin Jax, RHP
• 9. David Festa, RHP
• 8. Matt Wallner, RF
• 7. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
• 6. Brooks Lee, SS/2B/3B

And now, here are my picks for the top five most indispensable players to the Minnesota Twins franchise as 2025 gets underway.

5. Pablo López, RHP
Age: 28
Controlled through: 2027
2024 Ranking: 3

The biggest strength of the Twins organization right now is the three-headed monster atop their MLB rotation. All three are very good, in their primes, worthy of starting in the playoffs, and under team control for the next three years. While I personally view López as the best of this trio, he ranks third in this exercise because of his contract, which escalates significantly in 2025 as he makes $22 million annually over the next three seasons.

To be clear, that's not an unreasonable price, especially for someone who's proven his frontline mettle in the playoffs like López. But it is a substantial commitment to one pitcher for a team in Minnesota's now-cumbersome payroll situation. And for what it's worth, López pitched somewhat worse in 2024 than in his first season with the Twins. But as I see it, he's still clearly their No. 1 starter and one of the biggest reasons to believe the team could make noise if they reach the postseason.

4. Joe Ryan, RHP
Age: 28
Controlled through: 2027
2024 Ranking: 10

In each of the past two seasons, Ryan has pitched brilliantly in the first half before experiencing an injury-related drop-off in the second. In 2023 he attempted to pitch through a midseason groin strain that tanked his numbers, and in 2024 he suffered a back strain that ended his season shortly after the break. Despite this, Ryan has been healthy and effective enough to rank 32nd out of 106 qualified starters in fWAR since he became a full-time big leaguer in 2022. 

Though occasionally susceptible to homers, Ryan's pinpoint control and bat-evading fastball have led to dependably exceptional performance, which we can expect to continue as long as he's back to full health in 2025. The small sliver of uncertainty on that last part is what gives the next name in these rankings a slight edge, although they are essentially deadlocked. 

3. Bailey Ober, RHP
Age: 29
Controlled through: 2027
2024 Ranking: 7

Ober is the kind of pitching development success story that the Twins yearned for when they hired Derek Falvey. The 6-foot-9 righty was drafted in the 13th round back in 2017, Falvey's first year at the helm, based on traits the organization felt they could work with. Gradually the Twins developed Ober and helped boost his velocity to the point where he reached the majors, found success, and now has become an upper-echelon starter who would probably land a $100 million contract if he hit free agency today.

Fortunately for Minnesota, that inevitability is still three years away, and in 2025 he'll only make around $4 million. For a 3-WAR pitcher, as Ober was in 2024, that's an unbelievable bargain. The same applies to Ryan, and like I said, you could go either way in terms of a comparative evaluation. But Ober finished the year healthy, set a career high in innings, and looks poised to keep it rolling next year. Everything pretty much went according to plan.

2. Royce Lewis, 3B/2B
Age: 25
Controlled through: 2028
2024 Ranking: 2

As Lewis went in 2024, so the Twins went. He got hurt immediately and the team limped to a slow start. He came back in time to aid a scorching midseason run that pushed Minnesota far above the .500 mark. Then in the second half, Lewis ran out of gas as the entire offense flatlined around him. The former No. 1 overall draft pick has shown a rare ability to influence his team's fate, both for good and for bad. 

It's tough to entirely dismiss what we saw from Lewis in the final two months of 2024, but at this point the larger body of work wins out: a 126 career OPS+ with 33 homers through 605 plate appearances, along with an elevating postseason performance, from a guy who hasn't really had the chance to settle into a comfortable prolonged groove as a big-leaguer. Until further notice he's a ceiling-raising star, under control for four more seasons, with a legendary status in Twins history already locked up at age 25. Just gotta stay healthy. 

1. Walker Jenkins, OF
Age: 19
Controlled through: 2030+
2024 Ranking: 1

One year ago, I had Jenkins ranked as the organization's No. 1 player asset. I've seen no reason to change my mind since. The Twins lucked their way into landing the renowned prep talent with the fifth overall pick in 2023, and watched him clobber the minors during a sensational debut. He ranked as the 10th-best prospect in baseball entering this season, per MLB Pipeline, and coming out of it he ranks No. 2, behind only Washington's Dylan Crews.

After missing time with an injury, Jenkins made fairly easy work of Single-A pitching all summer before getting a taste of Double-A in the final week. He hit for some power, stole bases, played a strong center field. But what really stood out was his Mauer-esque discipline, drawing 56 walks against 47 strikeouts against more advanced competition. Jenkins has all the makings of a future superstar and franchise centerpiece.

With this final installment, my rankings of the top 20 Twins players assets heading into 2025 is now complete. See the full list below. In looking it over, do you feel anyone's been unfairly omitted? Any quibbles with the order of the rankings? Any overall thoughts as you assess the organization's current talent landscape? Feel free to sound off in the comments.

1. Walker Jenkins, CF
2. Royce Lewis, 3B/2B
3. Bailey Ober, RHP
4. Joe Ryan, RHP
5. Pablo López, RHP
6. Brooks Lee, SS/2B/3B
7. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Matt Wallner, RF
9. David Festa, RHP
10. Griffin Jax, RHP
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
12. Zebby Matthews, RHP
13. Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF
14. Trevor Larnach, LF
15. Ryan Jeffers, C
16. Carlos Correa, SS
17. José Miranda, 3B/1B
18. Marco Raya, RHP
19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
20. Edouard Julien, 2B

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[dxpavelka]

I'd have no problem with Correa at 16.  I Larnach weren't at 14.

[wmsrandy]

Enjoy reading your Top 20 ranking every year Nick.
How about adding one more group: #21-30? 

[Jeff K]

I enjoyed reading your top 20 and your top 5 are difficult to argue with other than tinkering with the order.  That said, Buxton not in the top 20 is difficult to understand.  

[JD-TWINS]

I realize the exercise isn’t meant for you to energize the fans here. Lee at #6 is just difficult to get excited about……Julien at #20, even 14 spots lower, is more difficult. Both young and both have had past success….. obviously, inexpensive and controllable. Not real comfortable that either can hit at MLB level, at least in the near term. Fingers crossed for these 2.

Thanks for the list!

 

[ziggy]

If I was going to quibble with your rankings I would say Buxton has to be on the list. He is a game changer when he is manning center field. There is value in that, even if he is injured often. When he is injured his salary is probably covered by an insurance policy.

Thanks Nick for the list and the read. 

[arby58]

I made the case yesterday for Buxton being on the list, and I won't repeat myself. That said, the near-term 'window' to build a champion has to have Buxton on the list. If this is an exercise in only looking five years out, sure - he likely doesn't make the cut. However, if Correa is on the list this year (age 30, 2024 3.7 WAR, $35 million salary) then how is Buxton not (age 31, 3.6 WAR, $15 million salary)?

[NYCTK]

I said yesterday that it'd probably be best to trade Wallner because his value will never be higher. Well, I kind of feel that way about Lewis now as well.

How valuable is a 3 WAR player that you need to roster a full time backup for due to their porcelain body? 

Not to mention his incredibly poor media management last season that made himself look like a clubhouse cancer. 

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nick, for this interesting exercise. Unlike you, I would not rank the prospects as high as you have. If they haven't proved anything yet it's hard for me to rank them that high. I also see you left off Buxton. Of course, I'd love Buxton to play more but even so how easy would it be to find his caliber of play for the amount we pay him? If he was completely healthy when we signed him, we couldn't afford him. Same with Correa, his caliber of talent & intangibles are indispensable. Because of the absence at times of Buxton, Correa & Lewis shine doubt on their indispensability. The more Castro's (who was also left off this list) indispensability makes more sense, his flexibility & quality depth he provides are very valuable. How easy is it to replace him? We don't have him in the system. If you can find him in FA he'd be too expensive. If you find him on a different team, if the team is smart they won't trade him. Just because FO wants to free up money & Castro would be the easiest way to do it (because there should be a big demand for him) makes him less valuable? How would it look if Twins' MVP & All-Star who makes it in your indispensable list was traded? He should be extended.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Overall nice list.  I will quibble here and there but I think you mostly hit the mark.  The differences are what makes a list like this personal.  My overall thoughts are this. 

1. The three headed monster of frontline pitching is really a pretty wonderful thing because it makes everything else better around it.  As stated, put them in any order you want and they are probably the best thing the Twins have going on right now.  Add to that Festa and Matthews coming up the list and it seems very promising.

2. Not sure if it's nice or scary that we have two relief pitchers in the top 11.  I was surprised that neither made MLB's list last night.  They are both excellent and deserve the ranking (and I agree with the placement), but shouldn't we have position players that send them further down the list?  Asking for a friend. . .

3.  Byron Buxton probably belongs somewhere.  He's signed for a while.  When healthy, he's very good (in fact according to MLB he is the #3 CF in baseball right now).  I don't think he's top ten, but I think he belongs somewhere below Carlos Correa.

4.  I will always quibble a little bit with prospects on the list and you have several.  All they have to offer right now is potential and hope.  The chances that they all become good MLB players are pretty slim, so I just prefer to wait.  Of the prospects(ish) on the list, I think Brooks Lee in particular is too high.  He had a chance and showed pretty much nothing offensively.  Now I know it's SSS but I think he's destined for utility guy status.  Right now my feeling is that if he is actually that valuable, trade him immediately because his value has nowhere to go but down.  I also don't really like Walker Jenkins as #1.  Maybe he's going to be THAT good, but I'm not ready to crown him as our best asset yet.  He's certainly valuable, I just think it's premature. 

[DJL44]

Buxton belongs on the list instead of Julien. I would have Andrew Morris on instead of Raya. Festa should be just below Jax and Duran. Move Jeffers and Correa ahead of Zebby Matthews. The rest are close enough that I don't care.

1. Walker Jenkins, CF
2. Royce Lewis, 3B/2B
3. Bailey Ober, RHP
4. Joe Ryan, RHP
5. Pablo López, RHP
6. Brooks Lee, SS/2B/3B
7. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Matt Wallner, RF
9. Griffin Jax, RHP
10. Jhoan Durán, RHP
11. David Festa, RHP
12. Ryan Jeffers, C
13. Carlos Correa, SS
14. Byron Buxton, CF
15. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
16. Zebby Matthews, RHP
17. Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF
18. Trevor Larnach, LF
19. José Miranda, 3B/1B
20. Andrew Morris, RHP

[Fire Dan Gladden]

@Nick Nelson An explanation is probably needed as to why Buxton and Castro were omitted entirely from your list.  Maybe a follow up article on the who missed and why.

Personally for me: Correa is too low and the relievers are too high.

Thanks for the rundown.

[chpettit19]

These are the top 5 I'd have, but I'd put Lewis 1 because I've seen him do it so he gets the boost. Correa belongs at 6 for me and Buxton belongs on the list while Julien doesn't. Lee is too high as I don't see more than an average player, but I hope he's the star others see.

1. Lewis
2. Jenkins
3. Ober
4. Ryan
5. Pablo
6. Correa
7. Keaschall (probably too high, but just feels like a guy to me so he's my wildcard flier)
8. Wallner
9. Rodriguez
10. Jax
11. Duran
12. Larnach
13. Buxton
14. Festa
15. Lee
16. Miranda
17. Jeffers
18. Zebby
19. SWR
20. Prielipp (why not add another wildcard for funsies at the end here?)

[OvertheHill]

I also appreciate these lists, and honestly don’t have enough information to argue your rankings Nick, It’s a great way for fans like me to know who/what to be watching for as we move into Spring Training. 
 

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Buxton not in the top 20 is difficult to understand.  

Part-time player. "Next year" is always when he's going to play regularly and reach his potential.

[DJL44]

Correa's production is quite valuable to the Twins but he doesn't have a lot of excess value once you subtract the value of what he gets paid. That's why other players end up higher than Correa. I'm pretty certain you couldn't get a team to give you a top 100 prospect in return for Correa in a trade.

[tony&rodney]

These list are popular and interesting. One can construct such a list on a variety of criteria and there will always be some differences of thought and opinion. Thank you Nick for putting these together and for your synopsis of each player. 

There is bias in every judgment. Two players, separated by quite some distance on this list, are emblematic of this. Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien are different people and players with different styles and backgrounds. People react to these two quite differently as well. The struggles of one result in a call for removal, the struggles of the other demand a call for patience and hope. Each has roughly the same number of plate appearances and somewhat similar counting stats with an identical oWar ranking thus far. I'm always interested in reading these lists and the responses and the sentences above are not a defense or attack on either Julien or Lewis or much of a comparison, but merely a note to remind myself that everyone finds value where they choose to see it with each player based on mostly real reason but also personal beliefs. 

[mluebker]

I keep hearing how Royce Lewis's defensive skills have declined and that he doesn't want to play 3rd or 2nd. So why not move him and the big bat over to first base and move injury-prone Correa to 3rd, a theoretically less-demanding position, where he'll have less ground to cover? Then move some combination of Julien, Miranda, Keaschall, and Lee into the SS/2B slots until someone better comes along? All among the Top 20.

[KBJ1]

I'd say that SWR is seriously underrated.

As a rookie, the guy stepped in and literally saved the rotation from disaster. Sure, he often went only 5 innings, but he kept the team in the game most every start. A controllable, cheap #4 SP who will only get better is worth their weight in Gold for an organization like the Twins. As excited as I was for last years team, this year does not inspire me at all. They still don't have a #5 SP, no LF right hand power hitter and now no 1B and a BP with no depth, no Lefty and injury concerns galore. Barring a miracle, These 4 areas not being addressed make this a 500 team at best.

[Nick Nelson]

Thank you all so much for the great feedback and thoughts. I love writing this series mainly because it tends to elicit so much thoughtful and interesting discussion during a dead zone in the offseason.

Seems like the biggest quibble I'm seeing is the absence of Buxton from the list, and I hear ya. I'm second-guessing myself for not having him on here. Buxton ranked #1 on this list two years ago but dropped off completely following the disaster that was 2023. He did rebound in a major way this past season, finished relatively healthy, and perhaps that should've been weighed more heavily. Candidly, Buck is my favorite player and it's possible I went too far trying to overcorrect my own bias.

But to defend the choice, ultimately where I get stuck is thinking about the entire balance of his remaining contract vs 2025 specifically. It's not a bad contract but $15M/yr is meaningful to the Twins in their situation. He's 31, he's got a ton of wear-and-tear, and I don't think he's much longer for CF. What are we looking at from him in 2026-28? And how do we realistically frame his upside when you can only hope to get 100 games max from him? 

[saviking]

What doesn't inspire me is the fact we have 50 million a year tied up in number 16 and someone not even on the list ..

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, mluebker said:

I keep hearing how Royce Lewis's defensive skills have declined and that he doesn't want to play 3rd or 2nd. So why not move him and the big bat over to first base and move injury-prone Correa to 3rd, a theoretically less-demanding position, where he'll have less ground to cover? Then move some combination of Julien, Miranda, Keaschall, and Lee into the SS/2B slots until someone better comes along? All among the Top 20.

Sir, the reason Correa cannot be moved is because he is currently the only player capable of playing shortstop in the major leagues. Shortstop is far less important than catcher but it is still the next most important defensive position in baseball, pitching being a category in itself.

[Linus]

4 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thank you all so much for the great feedback and thoughts. I love writing this series mainly because it tends to elicit so much thoughtful and interesting discussion during a dead zone in the offseason.

Seems like the biggest quibble I'm seeing is the absence of Buxton from the list, and I hear ya. I'm second-guessing myself for not having him on here. Buxton ranked #1 on this list two years ago but dropped off completely following the disaster that was 2023. He did rebound in a major way this past season, finished relatively healthy, and perhaps that should've been weighed more heavily. Candidly, Buck is my favorite player and it's possible I went too far trying to overcorrect my own bias.

But to defend the choice, ultimately where I get stuck is thinking about the entire balance of his remaining contract vs 2025 specifically. It's not a bad contract but $15M/yr is meaningful to the Twins in their situation. He's 31, he's got a ton of wear-and-tear, and I don't think he's much longer for CF. What are we looking at from him in 2026-28? And how do we realistically frame his upside when you can only hope to get 100 games max from him? 

Thanks for writing this - something different in a slow off season.  Going forward I think you need to define the objective of the exercise better.  Fulfilling the vision of a winning team is pretty vague, at least to me.  It seems to me that it is an asset valuation which is basically a trade valuation which you state isn’t what you are doing.  Is about winning over a certain timeframe?  Reminds me of people debating if a certain pitcher is an ace when they don’t define what an ace is.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Part-time player. "Next year" is always when he's going to play regularly and reach his potential.

Royce is right there with him. 

 

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

These list are popular and interesting. One can construct such a list on a variety of criteria and there will always be some differences of thought and opinion. Thank you Nick for putting these together and for your synopsis of each player. 

There is bias in every judgment. Two players, separated by quite some distance on this list, are emblematic of this. Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien are different people and players with different styles and backgrounds. People react to these two quite differently as well. The struggles of one result in a call for removal, the struggles of the other demand a call for patience and hope. Each has roughly the same number of plate appearances and somewhat similar counting stats with an identical oWar ranking thus far. I'm always interested in reading these lists and the responses and the sentences above are not a defense or attack on either Julien or Lewis or much of a comparison, but merely a note to remind myself that everyone finds value where they choose to see it with each player based on mostly real reason but also personal beliefs. 

Oooh. Good comparison. I obviously understand why Royce is viewed higher. But man on man, I just can't get excited for a guy that got seriously hurt rounding second base. 

[bean5302]

22 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thank you all so much for the great feedback and thoughts. I love writing this series mainly because it tends to elicit so much thoughtful and interesting discussion during a dead zone in the offseason.

Seems like the biggest quibble I'm seeing is the absence of Buxton from the list, and I hear ya. I'm second-guessing myself for not having him on here. Buxton ranked #1 on this list two years ago but dropped off completely following the disaster that was 2023. He did rebound in a major way this past season, finished relatively healthy, and perhaps that should've been weighed more heavily. Candidly, Buck is my favorite player and it's possible I went too far trying to overcorrect my own bias.

But to defend the choice, ultimately where I get stuck is thinking about the entire balance of his remaining contract vs 2025 specifically. It's not a bad contract but $15M/yr is meaningful to the Twins in their situation. He's 31, he's got a ton of wear-and-tear, and I don't think he's much longer for CF. What are we looking at from him in 2026-28? And how do we realistically frame his upside when you can only hope to get 100 games max from him? 

Buxton ranks #20th overall on BTV's values I saw as well. Right on the cusp. I tend to agree with that assessment. He's borderline top 20 value, which is to say, not a ton.

 

[nicksaviking]

Fun list as always.

I'm excited for Jenkins too, but I don't think a guy with 6 AA games is the top value in the system though. I don't think you get Lewis, Ober, Ryan or Lopez for Jenkins straight up. I think you have to add something to Jenkins.

Maybe you get Ryan.

[rdehring]

Love this exercise, Nick.  Thanks!

Will agree with those who believe Buxton must be on this list somewhere.  If he is healthy and plays, say 125 games, he is the one player capable of taking the Twins to the promised land.  And he is under contract for several years with a contract that doesn't break the bank.

It wasn't that long ago that I can recall most Twins fans praying for a top of the rotation starter.  They haven't had one since the days of Radke and Santana.  And now they have three.  FANTASTIC!

Go Twins.

[Nick Nelson]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

Thanks for writing this - something different in a slow off season.  Going forward I think you need to define the objective of the exercise better.  Fulfilling the vision of a winning team is pretty vague, at least to me.  It seems to me that it is an asset valuation which is basically a trade valuation which you state isn’t what you are doing.  Is about winning over a certain timeframe?  Reminds me of people debating if a certain pitcher is an ace when they don’t define what an ace is.

It's about trying to win over any timeframe within the circumstances and constraints faced by the Twins.I try to weigh 2026 and 2027 almost equally to 2025 because they are all different opportunities to win a World Series.

I don't view this exercise as being far off from a trade valuation ranking, because a lot of the point is: if we traded this guy, we'd expect to get back similar asset talent. E.g. in Jan 2023 I had Arraez ranked 10th, and then they traded him for Lopez who I ranked 9th when I updated the rankings. Sign of a good, fair trade.

But I do try to look at it through a Twins-specific lens, which is why I distinguish it from simply being about trade value. If the team had a good catcher coming up through the ranks, Jeffers would have probably ranked lower. It doesn't affect his trade value but it affects his importance to the Twins. Correa would probably rank higher if the Twins still had a $160M payroll. There's no salary cap in MLB of course but the Twins have essentially given themselves one so I'm assessing through the scope of team-building and how you put together a championship roster.

[Jeff K]

52 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Part-time player. "Next year" is always when he's going to play regularly and reach his potential.

That's an emotional response.  His value to the organization is top 20 when he plays 100 games; which he did this past season.

[mluebker]

That's a response based on the facts of how many games he's played and his overall reliability throughout his MLB career. If you can't count on him being in the line-up or in CF, then you can't count on him.