The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2025: Part 4 (1-5)

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Fun list as always.

I'm excited for Jenkins too, but I don't think a guy with 6 AA games is the top value in the system though. I don't think you get Lewis, Ober, Ryan or Lopez for Jenkins straight up. I think you have to add something to Jenkins.

Maybe you get Ryan.

This is an example of why these lists are fun - different people have different ideas. Going off what you stated  and not having actually thought about it before now, I would bet $1K that the Twins would not trade Walker Jenkins (1 for 1) for any of those noted in a hypothetical deal. Great example though of what makes the

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

That's an emotional response.  His value to the organization is top 20 when he plays 100 games; which he did this past season.

If we increase that threshold to just 105, he didn't. 

The guy can't stay on the field, there's nothing controversial to that statement. And thats true for the 2nd "most valuable" player on the team as well. 

[mluebker]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

...the absence at times of Buxton, Correa & Lewis shine doubt on their indispensability. 

I'd love to see one of you guys who likes juggling statistics calculate the overall performance the team got last year at CF, SS, and 3B when you combine the numbers of each of the three above with those of their replacements. I'm guessing the Twins are spending a lot at those positions for what averages out to be less-than-stellar stats overall.

[bean5302]

@Nick Nelson vs. BTV seems pretty spot on to me.

1. Jenkins vs. Jenkins +58.4
2. Lewis vs. Ober +54.1
3. Ober vs. Ryan +53.5
4. Ryan vs. Lopez +47.8
5. Lopez vs. Lewis +47.3
6. Lee vs. Rodriguez +45? Nobody is asking for him on BTV
7. Rodriguez vs. Wallner +38.1
8. Wallner vs. Lee +37.0
9. Festa vs. Jax +28.8
10. Jax vs. Correa +25.8
11. Duran vs. Duran +24.7
12. Matthews vs. Keaschall +23.3
13. Keaschall vs. Larnach +22.6
14. Larnach vs. Festa +19.5
15. Jeffers vs. SWR +19.1
16. Correa vs. Julien +16.5
17. Miranda vs. Jeffers +16.2
18. Raya vs. Miranda +16.1
19. SWR vs. Matthews +12.9
20. Julien vs. Buxton +10.4

The list is pretty close to identical. The only swap is Raya vs. Buxton making the very edge, and only a Correa is more than a handful of rank spots off.

If the Twins go to a World Series in the next 2 years, here's my rank of how important these players are in regard to likelihood they made major contributions to carry the team. WAR baseline expected vs. potential. 2.5 for position players/starters 1.0 for utility guys, 0.5 for relievers.

1. Lewis
2. Wallner
3. Correa
4. Duran
5. Jax
6. Everybody else.
 

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, mluebker said:

I'd love to see one of you guys who likes juggling statistics calculate the overall performance the team got last year at CF, SS, and 3B when you combine the numbers of each of the three above with those of their replacements. I'm guessing the Twins are spending a lot at those positions for what averages out to be less-than-stellar stats overall.

Twins league rank in fWAR and wRC+

SS: 6th 4th 

CF: 6th 3rd

3B: 16th 10th

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

7. Keaschall (probably too high, but just feels like a guy to me so he's my wildcard flier)

After watching him live in Cedar Rapids last year, I've felt the same way.  The only player I was more impressed with live last year was Bobby Witt, Jr.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

After watching him live in Cedar Rapids last year, I've felt the same way.  The only player I was more impressed with live last year was Bobby Witt, Jr.

I watched him probably 25 times on MiLB.tv and each time I came away feeling like there was something special.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thank you all so much for the great feedback and thoughts. I love writing this series mainly because it tends to elicit so much thoughtful and interesting discussion during a dead zone in the offseason.

Seems like the biggest quibble I'm seeing is the absence of Buxton from the list, and I hear ya. I'm second-guessing myself for not having him on here. Buxton ranked #1 on this list two years ago but dropped off completely following the disaster that was 2023. He did rebound in a major way this past season, finished relatively healthy, and perhaps that should've been weighed more heavily. Candidly, Buck is my favorite player and it's possible I went too far trying to overcorrect my own bias.

But to defend the choice, ultimately where I get stuck is thinking about the entire balance of his remaining contract vs 2025 specifically. It's not a bad contract but $15M/yr is meaningful to the Twins in their situation. He's 31, he's got a ton of wear-and-tear, and I don't think he's much longer for CF. What are we looking at from him in 2026-28? And how do we realistically frame his upside when you can only hope to get 100 games max from him? 

At 15 million per year Buxton is getting paid like a platoon player getting in only 100 games just about at this point.  I suspect he will be worth 8-16 WAR over the remaining 4 years and 60 million on his contract.  That’s not an overpay by any means.  7.5 to as low as 3.75 million cost per WAR in the expected range of value he is likely to provide.  He could even break out a 6 WAR season still.  I can see injury concerns knocking him down a little not his contract.

The Twins are about to get a new payroll situation as they seem confident a deal for the team is likely to be done by opening day.  I wouldn’t hold payroll at 130 million for seasons beyond this one as an absolute.

[jmlease1]

Seems like a fair list to me. I agree with the folks who think that Buxton earned his way back on with his performance last season, but I'm not going to lose my mind over it.

It's awfully fun to see three starting pitchers in the top 5. I'm trying to recall a time before Pablo got here that we would have landed that way...and I'm struggling to think of the last time when 3 of our top 5 assets would have been starting pitchers going into the season.

I'm so much happier with where the Twins are at for starting pitching now. We have guys that can be relied on at the top of the rotation, guys that should be seen as legit playoff starters that give your team a chance against basically anyone. That's a great place to start. 

I hope Royce can be healthy enough to showcase his talent and skill. He's got a ton of it, and the joy he plays with is a delight. Same goes for Buxton. They're some of the most fun twins I've ever watched, so easy to root for.

I try not to get overly excited about Walker Jenkins, but it's hard. He's got all the pieces. i think he's going to crush AA this year and get himself up to Saint Paul. It's gonna be fun!

[tony&rodney]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I watched him probably 25 times on MiLB.tv and each time I came away feeling like there was something special.

Same. I'm high on Keaschall.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, mluebker said:

I keep hearing how Royce Lewis's defensive skills have declined and that he doesn't want to play 3rd or 2nd. So why not move him and the big bat over to first base and move injury-prone Correa to 3rd, a theoretically less-demanding position, where he'll have less ground to cover? Then move some combination of Julien, Miranda, Keaschall, and Lee into the SS/2B slots until someone better comes along? All among the Top 20.

That weakens the team.   Correa is the best SS we have and you  want to move him to 3rd and be replaced by three players that should start in St. Paul.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

At 15 million per year Buxton is getting paid like a platoon player getting in only 100 games just about at this point.  I suspect he will be worth 8-16 WAR over the remaining 4 years and 60 million on his contract.  That’s not an overpay by any means.  7.5 to as low as 3.75 million cost per WAR in the expected range of value he is likely to provide.  He could even break out a 6 WAR season still.  I can see injury concerns knocking him down a little not his contract.

The Twins are about to get a new payroll situation as they seem confident a deal for the team is likely to be done by opening day.  I wouldn’t hold payroll at 130 million for seasons beyond this one as an absolute.

I've seen WAR valued at 10 million per. It's just like name recognition.  If theyre a star it's valued at a higher number. Hell, Rooker had a 5 WAR last year. Primarily a DH yes, but he just signed for 60 million over 5 years. So even if he avgs a WAR of 4 per year that doesn't add up to 3.75 per WAR. Those numbers are ALL over the place. So how is it's value measured? What was Buxtons breakdown last year? 94/5 CF vs DH. Because some of his WAR is attributed to the defensive side. Not that it matters. My point is. What was his 3.7 WAR valued at? If it's 4 million per WAR then he earned his 15 million based off that number. If its 7 million, then he was underpaid. So please explain.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, ziggy said:

If I was going to quibble with your rankings I would say Buxton has to be on the list. He is a game changer when he is manning center field. There is value in that, even if he is injured often. When he is injured his salary is probably covered by an insurance policy.

Thanks Nick for the list and the read. 

I’d agree.

Cannot argue with his typical limited availability! However, even MLB Network’s 2025 rankings for CF’s has Buxton as #3 in Baseball - up from #7 at beginning of 2024. Even with mixed assumptions on availability, his offensive upside and more than competent defense pushes him up pretty far on the CF ladder. Performs above his salary relative to WAR - under Team control - seems to fit the mold for what this list is built around?

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thank you all so much for the great feedback and thoughts. I love writing this series mainly because it tends to elicit so much thoughtful and interesting discussion during a dead zone in the offseason.

Seems like the biggest quibble I'm seeing is the absence of Buxton from the list, and I hear ya. I'm second-guessing myself for not having him on here. Buxton ranked #1 on this list two years ago but dropped off completely following the disaster that was 2023. He did rebound in a major way this past season, finished relatively healthy, and perhaps that should've been weighed more heavily. Candidly, Buck is my favorite player and it's possible I went too far trying to overcorrect my own bias.

But to defend the choice, ultimately where I get stuck is thinking about the entire balance of his remaining contract vs 2025 specifically. It's not a bad contract but $15M/yr is meaningful to the Twins in their situation. He's 31, he's got a ton of wear-and-tear, and I don't think he's much longer for CF. What are we looking at from him in 2026-28? And how do we realistically frame his upside when you can only hope to get 100 games max from him? 

He doesn’t have to be a Top 10 CFer to play there. I think he at least continues to play OF through ‘26……maybe through his contract as he can finish up in LF. If Jenkins has the potential to be ready by ‘26 Buc could move over sooner than later.

Buc is ranked #3 as CF, for what it’s worth, for ‘25 by MLB Network.

If the years past ‘25 are the worry relative to the $$ factor with Buxton’s contract ………. “meaningful in their situation” seems to be less of an impactful issue with new ownership. going forward. I realize that new owners don’t guarantee a spending spree but I do think that a payroll between $155-$170 for ‘26 seems like a realistic number. Thoughts?

[Brandon]

10 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I've seen WAR valued at 10 million per. It's just like name recognition.  If theyre a star it's valued at a higher number. Hell, Rooker had a 5 WAR last year. Primarily a DH yes, but he just signed for 60 million over 5 years. So even if he avgs a WAR of 4 per year that doesn't add up to 3.75 per WAR. Those numbers are ALL over the place. So how is it's value measured? What was Buxtons breakdown last year? 94/5 CF vs DH. Because some of his WAR is attributed to the defensive side. Not that it matters. My point is. What was his 3.7 WAR valued at? If it's 4 million per WAR then he earned his 15 million based off that number. If its 7 million, then he was underpaid. So please explain.

Basically like you said WAR is typically 10 million in FA.  Buxton is getting paid or if he is worth 1.5 WAR we break even.  I just kept it simple and said if he gets 2-4 WAR a season he is a bargain.  
 

Rooker has 3 more arbitration seasons left before free agency so his first three seasons of his contract are discounted because of this.  You need to factor that in if comparing to Buxton contract.

[D.C Twins]

On 1/9/2025 at 11:46 AM, bean5302 said:

@Nick Nelson vs. BTV seems pretty spot on to me.

1. Jenkins vs. Jenkins +58.4
2. Lewis vs. Ober +54.1
3. Ober vs. Ryan +53.5
4. Ryan vs. Lopez +47.8
5. Lopez vs. Lewis +47.3
6. Lee vs. Rodriguez +45? Nobody is asking for him on BTV
7. Rodriguez vs. Wallner +38.1
8. Wallner vs. Lee +37.0
9. Festa vs. Jax +28.8
10. Jax vs. Correa +25.8
11. Duran vs. Duran +24.7
12. Matthews vs. Keaschall +23.3
13. Keaschall vs. Larnach +22.6
14. Larnach vs. Festa +19.5
15. Jeffers vs. SWR +19.1
16. Correa vs. Julien +16.5
17. Miranda vs. Jeffers +16.2
18. Raya vs. Miranda +16.1
19. SWR vs. Matthews +12.9
20. Julien vs. Buxton +10.4

The list is pretty close to identical. The only swap is Raya vs. Buxton making the very edge, and only a Correa is more than a handful of rank spots off.

If the Twins go to a World Series in the next 2 years, here's my rank of how important these players are in regard to likelihood they made major contributions to carry the team. WAR baseline expected vs. potential. 2.5 for position players/starters 1.0 for utility guys, 0.5 for relievers.

1. Lewis
2. Wallner
3. Correa
4. Duran
5. Jax
6. Everybody else.
 

For if a WS appearance hypothetical.... Buxton needs to be on this list (a near best season of his career would be required)

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

For if a WS appearance hypothetical.... Buxton needs to be on this list (a near best season of his career would be required)

 

Nah, Buxton will produce his 2-3 WAR in 80 games. He won't hurt the Twins making the playoffs, but he won't help, either. He's an easy strikeout when it counts, too.

[bean5302]

On 1/10/2025 at 1:11 AM, Brandon said:

Basically like you said WAR is typically 10 million in FA.  Buxton is getting paid or if he is worth 1.5 WAR we break even.  I just kept it simple and said if he gets 2-4 WAR a season he is a bargain.  
 

Rooker has 3 more arbitration seasons left before free agency so his first three seasons of his contract are discounted because of this.  You need to factor that in if comparing to Buxton contract.

Sorry, read this too fast, but comparing free agency to extensions Buxton signed an extension while he was under team control.

[Brandon]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sorry, read this too fast, but comparing free agency to extensions Buxton signed an extension while he was under team control.

I thought you were talking about salaries dragging the teams options down.

Also I would put Buxton before Julien on this list.  

[mluebker]

On 1/9/2025 at 11:30 AM, mickster said:

Correa is the best SS we have and you  want to move him to 3rd and be replaced by three players that should start in St. Paul.

I want him in the line-up and playing somewhere every day. But that seems increasingly unlikely at SS. As for who’d replace him at short, with the salary constraints the team likely faces, we’re going to be seeing a lot of players from St. Paul starting in various places for the Twins 2025, at least until someone buys the team and decides they want to win, not just make a profit.

 

[mluebker]

On 1/9/2025 at 9:55 AM, NYCTK said:

Twins league rank in fWAR and wRC+

Can you point me to the specific sources? The baseball-reference “2024 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average” chart seems to tell a different story. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi

[NYCTK]

12 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Can you point me to the specific sources? The baseball-reference “2024 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average” chart seems to tell a different story. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi

Fangraphs.  

[mluebker]

6 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Fangraphs.  

I figured that, since it was fWAR. Was looking for a link.