This Star KBO Pitcher Could Be a Hidden Gem for the Salary-Restricted Twins

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins have been linked to this Choi Dong-won Award-winning starting pitcher. Could they realistically sign him, given the ownership-induced salary restrictions?

Image courtesy of © Rick Cinclair/Telegram & Gazette via Imagn Content Services, LLC

The year is 2018. (Not now, don't freak out. I'm setting a scene.) After posting four strong seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO), then-30-year-old right-handed starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has been rewarded for his efforts, signing a two-year, $5.5-million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's a leap of faith on both sides.

Six seasons later, Arizona and Kelly have reaped the benefits of this once trivial signing. Kelly has generated 12.8 Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference (rWAR), with a 3.82 ERA over 824 1/3 innings pitched for the club while also playing an integral role in guiding Arizona to a World Series appearance in 2023. Arizona rewarded him for his accomplishments along the way, signing him to a two-year, $18-million extension after the 2022 MLB season.

The year is 2023. (Again, figuratively.) Then-30-year-old right-handed starting pitcher Erick Fedde is looking to make the same transition, after generating an excellent 2.00 ERA season over 30 games started with KBO's NC Dinos. Several teams wooed the once-failed Washington Nationals starter, and he found a fairly lucrative landing spot, inking a two-year, $15-million contract with the Chicago White Sox. He excelled with the lowly White Sox, posting a 3.11 ERA and 108-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 121 2/3 innings pitched. His performance with the South Siders led to him getting shipped off to the St. Louis Cardinals at last season's trade deadline. He is now ensconced at the top of St. Louis's rotation, with playoff-hopeful franchises seeking a trade for the now-valuable mid-rotation arm.

The year is now 2025 (for real!), and 32-year-old left-handed starting pitcher Kyle Hart is trying to make the same jump. Like Kelly and Fedde, Hart was once also a failed MLB starter. He mustered a mere 11 innings pitched for the Boston Red Sox during the 2020 COVID-shortened 60-game season. Hart never made it back to the majors, but instead of fizzling out in the high minors, the soft-tossing southpaw decided (like Fedde) to join the KBO's NC Dinos. Hart excelled with the Dinos, posting a 2.69 ERA and a 28.8% strikeout rate over 26 starts, leading to him winning the Choi Dong-won Award (KBO's equivalent to the Cy Young Award) last season.

Hart's career revival in the KBO was sparked by the 32-year-old arm turning his plus slider into a true chase pitch by relying heavily on his fastball early in counts. He also utilizes his changeup as a complementary pitch. As noted earlier, Hart is a soft-tossing lefty, with his fastball hovering around 90-91 MPH. Still, despite a deficiency in velocity, his pitches have significantly improved since his days in Boston's minor-league system, causing him to be a sought-after free-agent target this winter.

According to The Athletic's Will Sammon and Katie Woo, the Twins are among the teams most interested in signing Hart. In the article, Sammon and Woo noted that teams are mulling over signing Hart as a starting pitcher or multi-inning reliever due to concerns over his limited repertoire. Now, it is unclear which role Minnesota is interested in Hart fulfilling. Presumably, though, the number of teams vying for him means that Hart will land with someone who views him as a starter.

Despite being an exceedingly effective starter with the Dinos, there is merit to the idea of Hart becoming a reliever, evidenced by his performance trends last season. When looking at Hart's starts, there is a stark contrast in effectiveness as the game progresses. Here are his opponent's batting averages over the first five innings:

• First inning - .184
• Second inning - .232
• Third inning - .304
• Fourth inning - .157
• Fifth inning - .212

In terms of opponent average, Hart's second-best inning is the first. That's pretty typical, since starters are fresh in the first and opponents haven't gotten a long look at them. As illustrated, his performance dips in the second and third frames, even though the opponent's best hitters usually come up in the first. Again, Hart excelled as a starter in the KBO and deserves a chance as a fifth starter in the majors next season. However, if he were to join the Twins, he could be best suited usurping Funderburk and Headrick and being the club's sole left-handed reliever on the 26-man roster to begin the 2025 campaign.

Further evidence to support the claim Hart would be an effective left-handed reliever resides in his splits with the Dinos. Here is how he performed against same-handed and opposite-handed batters last season:

• Against left-handed batters - .193 AVG, 44 hits allowed, three home runs allowed, 77 strikeouts, seven walks
• Against right-handed batters - .229 AVG, 80 hits allowed, eight home runs allowed, 105 strikeouts, 31 walks

Hart excelled against lefties. Despite still performing well against right-handed batters, he struggled with control, evidenced by a much less impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hart performs well against right-handed hitters, and with MLB's three-batter minimum, he would inevitably have to face right-handed hitters during appearances even in the pen. Still, there is reason to believe he could excel against same-handed batters, a phenomenon those who follow the team have grown accustomed to watching with the recently-departed Caleb Thielbar over the previous five seasons.

When discussing any potential Twins free-agent acquisition, one must note the ownership-imposed payroll limitations. Now, despite being roughly $12 million over the expected $130 million limit set for next season, the front office could still theoretically sign players before reaching the arbitrarily set limit. Hart could sign at any moment, meaning the team is unlikely to shed the $12 million necessary before the southpaw comes off the market. Still, with the Twins being genuinely interested in signing Hart, his price tag is projected not to be too substantial, meaning the club could sign him and still shed the money necessary to meet the ownership-imposed salary restrictions far before Spring Training begins.

View full article

[Fire Dan Gladden]

As with any signing like this, it depends on the what the contract looks like.  If he wants to continue to start, he won't come to MN.  He isn't a real upgrade over what they currently have.  As a reliever, he could be a good fit here.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd be open to it. Fedde would have been a fantastic addition last offseason. His 2023 numbers in the KBO were better than Hart's were in 2024, but similar strikeout and walk numbers are intriguing. 

And you are right, they can sign players any time. It's not at all that they HAVE to offload salaries before they sign players. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

As with any signing like this, it depends on the what the contract looks like.  If he wants to continue to start, he won't come to MN.  He isn't a real upgrade over what they currently have.  As a reliever, he could be a good fit here.

Hypothetically, if the twins do trade a starting pitcher, then he absolutely would have a spot in the top 5 no?

Or, it's just good to have depth anyway. If they start the season with 6 starting pitchers (and use 10 throughout the year) shouldn't they plan/expect for that?

[nicksaviking]

The problem is that the Twins should only sign him to be a reliever but if there are multiple teams, one will most likely promise him a starting job. The Twins should absolutely not make that promise.

I also don't like how these pitchers struggle here, find success in the KBO or JPL, then come back here and have success despite typically having poor strikeout numbers. Without the strikeouts, these players put me on edge as I don't trust the success to last. These guys all give me Stepford Wives vibes.

[Blyleven2011]

The twins  may be interested and the rumor has it they are ...

Fat chance they sign him to any kind of money fedde or Kelly got after leaving the KBO  ...

We need hart as a bullpen piece , and FO is in a wait and see mode to sign him  for a minor league contract  , maybe take a risk at 2 million dollar per year MLB contract for a couple of years ....

[CRF]

"WooSox"...I just LOVE that!

[tony&rodney]

This is a well-written article covering what could be a fun story to follow, similar to Kelly and Fedde as Cory has stated. Hart may be looking for a two year deal and hoping to get a full opportunity to start. I'm guessing the Orioles sound like the best fit. 

An aside. ... Are all writers required to put "owner imposed payroll restrictions" somewhere in their articles by the owners of Twins Daily? I get everyone's frustrations (me too) but I'm not seeing that refrain on other team's sites. 

[thelanges5]

If they deal Paddack they’ll need another SP. They used 8 SPs and without Paddack we’re planning for Raya, Adams etc for 2025. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Hypothetically, if the twins do trade a starting pitcher, then he absolutely would have a spot in the top 5 no?

Or, it's just good to have depth anyway. If they start the season with 6 starting pitchers (and use 10 throughout the year) shouldn't they plan/expect for that?

In a perfect world, having 4A depth at SP is ideal.  Currently (no trades), they are arguably sitting with 2 ready guys in AAA, possibly three depending on where they see Varland.  They won't spend money on a SP guy like this to lounge around.

If they trade Paddack, an argument can be made to sign him as a SP.  However, I don't believe he will move the needle with the team having cheaper equivalent options in MiLB. 

But it still comes back to cost.  The argument is somewhat moot if they can sign him for $2-3m, but he will probably go for more. 

[Schmoeman5]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 

An aside. ... Are all writers required to put "owner imposed payroll restrictions" somewhere in their articles by the owners of Twins Daily? I get everyone's frustrations (me too) but I'm not seeing that refrain on other team's sites. 

My thoughts exactly as I started reading this. And unless I missed it, was it ever stated by someone that they were going to do this again in 25? I

[Fire Dan Gladden]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

An aside. ... Are all writers required to put "owner imposed payroll restrictions" somewhere in their articles by the owners of Twins Daily? I get everyone's frustrations (me too) but I'm not seeing that refrain on other team's sites. 

How many other teams are currently in the publicly announced payroll jail the Twins are in?

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In a perfect world, having 4A depth at SP is ideal.  Currently (no trades), they are arguably sitting with 2 ready guys in AAA, possibly three depending on where they see Varland.  They won't spend money on a SP guy like this to lounge around.

If they trade Paddack, an argument can be made to sign him as a SP.  However, I don't believe he will move the needle with the team having cheaper equivalent options in MiLB. 

But it still comes back to cost.  The argument is somewhat moot if they can sign him for $2-3m, but he will probably go for more. 

Varland is a bullpen guy. He'll be a good one too in my opinion. He isn't a rotation option.

Zebby and Festa and Morris are all really close to helping any major league team in a positive way. Lewis and Culpepper both theorhetically aren't far away either. After that, I do think Raya will have the reins taken off this year at AAA. That St. Paul rotation will be fun. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Varland is a bullpen guy. He'll be a good one too in my opinion. He isn't a rotation option.

I 100% agree with you at this point.  However, I do not recall seeing anything public about the Twins 2025 intentions with him this offseason.

[1985Fan]

SWR and Festa should be penciled in as the #4 &5 starters for 2025. They both earned those spots last year. Paddack didn’t earn anything other than a stint on the injured list again, so I don’t understand why FO hasn’t traded him already. It’s Falvey’s MO to wait, so I expect Paddack to be part of a trade soon. Baltimore needs starters. 
Hart wants starter money and I can’t see giving him limited payroll to pitch out of the BP. They’ll find a LH RP from the remaining bargain bin to sign for next to nothing. There is also Funderburk and Headrick that will probably get a chance as well. With the managers pinch hitting preferences, you would think the same mentality would play in BP usage. With Thielbar gone, someone (or two) will need to fill the void. I don’t see Hart as that guy. 

[Doctor Gast]

I heard about Hart a while ago & was intrigued. Thanks, Cody for shedding some light on him. Being a soft-throwing lefty as a SP makes me queasy. IMO most everybody would think the same so landing him as a RP could be possible at a lower cost. If anybody wants him as a starter they can have him. We can always trade for a high-leverage LHRP if we don't wait too long.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

How many other teams are currently in the publicly announced payroll jail the Twins are in?

Well, since the bs comment of "right sizing" over one year ago (the only comment by the Twins), there are about 20 teams who have discussed some form of payroll checks. The most surprising (to me) was from St. Louis.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

As with any signing like this, it depends on the what the contract looks like.  If he wants to continue to start, he won't come to MN.  He isn't a real upgrade over what they currently have.  As a reliever, he could be a good fit here.

If we trade Paddack he could get a few starts to see if he can start in the majors 4 or 5 games before turning it over to Festa and moving him to the pen. You can never have too much pitching right?  

[Brandon]

And here is a scary thought.  If we sign this guy is one of Ober or Ryan on the trade block?  If we have several minor league players ready to come up and this guy can be a lower cost placeholder and we get a great prospect or three it could be a move we make right?

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins are trading Paddack to free up room for this guy, why wouldn't they just keep Paddack? I trust neither, but I'd trust Paddack more.

[bean5302]

I don't know. Kyle Hart doesn't strike me as a guy I'd be too confident in. Hart seems to be more a guy who just went to the equivalent of AA and was better. His K rate jumped, his BB rate dropped and he gave up far fewer hits. Hart's last go 'round state side was in AAA at age 30 where he put together 88 innings of 4.58 ERA pitching with 8.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 while allowing an astronomical 9.9 hits per 9.

Eric Fedde had a substantial MLB track record and he underwent some major changes from his shoulder injury recovery, mechanics and pitch offerings. With all the changes, he was absolutely dominant in the KBO. Fedde was pitching at the MLB level at age 24.
Fedde vs. Hart in the KBO, then Fedde in MLB
2023 Fedde - 180.1 IP, 2.00 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.29 xFIP, 29.5% K, 4.9% BB, 0.95 WHIP
2024 Hart - 157.0 IP, 2.69 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, 28.8% K, 6.0% BB, 1.03 WHIP
2024 Fedde - 177.1 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 21.2% K, 7.2% BB, 1.16 WHIP

Merrill Kelly was good in AAA at ages 24 and 25, unlike Kyle Hart, who has never enjoyed success in the high minors. Kelly's AAA line in 2014 was 114 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. He was serviceable in MLB after coming back, but it took years before Kelly became "good." 

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Hart. If the same regression which happened for Fedde happens with Hart, you'd be looking at:
2025 Hart - 155 IP, 4.44 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 7.40 xFIP, 20.7% K, 8.8% BB, 1.26 WHIP

[rv78]

Once again, another article trying to justify taking a chance on an unproven commodity.

He sounds too much like a pitcher the Twins are already paying, for nothing. Dobnak 2.0. No!

 

[Fatbat]

He is left handed. Pay him some $$$ & we will see if he works out 🤷🏼‍♂️

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'd prefer someone who will be an improvement over Steven Okert. My sense tells me Hart will be no better than Okert.

[DocBauer]

I'm definitely interested. I'm speculating that his good results and numbers indicate he's got a good change to go along with his slider and average fastball. The velocity might tick up a notch or two were he in the pen. And that's where I'd want him, as a replacement for Thielbar who could/should be at least decent against RH bats.

The problem is, someone is going to offer him between $5-7M as a SP. 

Rumor has it teams are interested in Paddack, but Falvey is holding out for something decent in return, and not a salary dump exclusively. IDK id that means a decent prospect, or a ML ready player. I stole the idea from elsewhere, (can't remember where), that the Cubs might be a good fit for a young RHOF, maybe with the Twins throwing in someone from the lower levels to sweeten the deal. But let's say something like that happens.

Potentially, the Twins could make him that same $5-7M deal for 2yrs, or a 1 and 1 type of deal, to add to the rotation mix and one of SWR or Festa goes to St Paul similar to what Ober did at the begining of 2023. Suddenly the rotation depth is even better, though unfair to the "loser" of the final spot competition.

But I still like him better in the pen, but he'd be worth giving a serious look-see in the rotation initially. He could then move to the pen if it doesn't work out and the next man up takes his spot in the rotation. That's where a 1 and 1 type of deal works in the Twins favor.  They don't want to spend $5M + on a setup man.

I only need to squint a little bit to see a fit here. It makes some sense. But not only do I see someone offering as good of a deal, but probably a guaranteed 2yr deal. Not sure the Twins like him enough to do that, and risk the pen option at the projected cost. Maybe they do! But if the had some $ cleared in a Paddack deal, I have the feeling they'd rather run with the arms on hand and add a solid bat instead.

[dxpavelka]

TYLER JAY'S AVAILABLE BABY

 

[David HK]

Looks like Thielbar 2.0

[Whitey333]

People say trade Paddock.  Who wants him??  He hasn't done much of anything for two years.  

[LambchoP]

If we can get him cheap enough I say go for it. We're obviously not targeting anyone better than this and we need some lefty pitchers on the team. Give him a few starts in ST and if he can't hack it, keep him stretched out as a multi inning reliever. I think those types of guys are very underrated who can come out of the pen and pitch 3 or 4 innings. That's pure gold to a bullpen.

[Jacksson]

Twins will listen to ANY TEAM that calls on Paddack & Lopez, and although the return for Lopez should include an MLB ready starter, when Paddack goes, a rotation spot opens up and having a LHP in the rotation would be a Plus.  Perhaps use Hart in conjunction with a 1-2 inning opener that throws heat to then make way for a soft tossing LHP.  Can we check to see if Flavey is a member of this site and if he is not gift him with the Premium Access. I'd chip in.