Larnach and Lewis Hold the Key to an Elevated Twins Lineup

[Nick Nelson]

The offense needs to take a big step forward and this pair of talented hitters, potentially each on the verge of his own true breakthrough, can be the driving force in making it happen. 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

In 2018, the Minnesota Twins selected college slugger Trevor Larnach out of Oregon State in the first round of the MLB Draft, 20th overall. One year earlier, with the first overall pick, they had taken prep infielder Royce Lewis. These first two top picks made under Derek Falvey's purview quickly become centerpieces of the Twins system. Heading into 2020, Twins Daily had Lewis and Larnach ranked as the organization's first and third-best prospects, sandwiching the last first-rounder drafted under Terry Ryan, Alex Kirilloff.

Kirilloff's playing career sadly came to an end when he retired earlier this offseason, but Lewis and Larnach — who've both dealt with their own injury woes — are just getting started. They've already proven integral to the Twins lineup, despite being held back somewhat from reaching their true potential. Here's why I'm looking at these two players, specifically, as pivotal in rejuvenating a Twins offense that tanked down the stretch and likely won't get much in the way of outside support this winter.

The 2-3 Punch
Rocco Baldelli's belief in Larnach and Lewis as hitters is reflected most simply by this fact: they led the team this year in lineup appearances batting second and third, respectively. Larnach edged Carlos Correa (45) with 49 starts as No. 2 hitter. Meanwhile, Lewis's 37 starts as No. 3 hitter were more than twice as many as the second-highest (Larnach at 18). This despite the fact that neither Larnach nor Lewis played in more than 112 games.

During the season, I wondered why Baldelli was giving such preferential treatment to Larnach in the batting order, consistently writing him into the money spots even as the outfielder profiled and produced more like a No. 6 hitter. My conclusion was that, in addition liking his stylistic fit and the sequencing between righty bats, Baldelli had high confidence in Larnach's talent and his ability to unlock another level based on underlying indicators.

"When planning for the future, it's not about what someone's done; it's about what they're going to do," I observed. "Just because other Twins players have outhit Larnach up to this point, that doesn't mean they will going forward."

Sure enough, Rocco was dead right. From the date of that article (August 12th) to the end of the season, Larnach slashed .291/.376/.464, lifting his OPS from .740 to .771. During this span Larnach's .364 wOBA led all Twins hitters, sans Correa who played 11 games. Given the way Baldelli's faith was validated, it seems likely we'll continue to see Larnach as a regular anchoring the two hole against right-handers. 

 

The logic behind regularly batting Lewis third, meanwhile, was much more straightforward. Over the first 100 or so games of his career, between lengthy absences, he was pretty much the best hitter in the world. Then, as we all know, came the season-ending mega-slump. But the good has thus far handily outweighed the bad for Lewis, owner of a 126 OPS+, 33 home runs and 104 RBIs through about one full season's worth of MLB action (605 PA).

True Breakouts on the Way?
In some ways, the 2024 season represented crucial breakthroughs for both Larnach and Lewis. Each set new career highs for plate appearances and games played. Larnach erased a track record of constant injuries and mediocre production at the plate. Lewis had his least effective season, but he saw more action than the previous two seasons combined. Even though he struggled mightily down the stretch, it's important that Lewis was able to shake off multiple significant muscle strains, staying on the field and in the lineup for his most prolonged stretch in years. 

Baseball is a game that is very much about learning from failure. Lewis hasn't had much of that when he's been healthy enough to play, but the final six weeks of this past season provided a humbling experience for such a naturally gifted athlete. "One of the things that really came to light," Twins strength and conditioning director Ian Kadish told The Athletic, "was the necessity for the preparation and understanding even though he’s ‘healthy,’ these are things that he needs to stay on top of.” 

For his excellent offseason feature on Lewis, Dan Hayes visited the 25-year-old in his hometown of Frisco, TX. Lewis opened up about the challenges he faced both physically and mentally, the lessons he learned, and the way it's all fueling his resolve. "When you figure things out at the highest level, that’s what makes you better," he told Hayes. "So I think it’s motivating. I’m really excited for this year because of the ending there."

 

Larnach, on other hand, doesn't need to learn from adversity. He's already done plenty of that during an early MLB career that featured plenty of stops and starts. Now the 27-year-old simply needs to build on what worked in 2024. His improvement was driven primarily by a drastic reduction in strikeout rate, which sustained throughout the year. Combining that with a well above-average walk rate and stellar contact metrics, you've got a thoroughly effective offensive threat who potentially has more untapped upside than he's shown.

Larnach and Lewis Are Locked In
Both players have some question marks that need to be answered defensively. Larnach was limited all season by a turf toe issue that mostly relegated him to DH. He's shown some solid fielding chops in the past — can he reassert himself as a quality left fielder? As for Lewis, it's up in the air whether he'll be playing third or second, much less how dependable he'll be at either.

But on the offensive end, these two look pretty locked in to resume their roles as core fixtures near the top of the lineup. The Twins are still led by accomplished veterans like Correa and Byron Buxton, and they're ushering in a new wave headlined by Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall. Lewis and Larnach represent the in-between; the "now" generation. If they can level up in their own ways, the Twins offense will be a fearful unit.

View full article

[CRF]

I'd add Wallner in there too. Those three guys need to really step up and produce, because by the looks of it, ownership/Falvey aren't going to be adding anyone to the team. 

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, CRF said:

I'd add Wallner in there too. Those three guys need to really step up and produce, because by the looks of it, ownership/Falvey aren't going to be adding anyone to the team. 

This was my very first thought seeing the title (Wallner) ... what you said. Falvey has his team. Our thoughts and attempts to tweak the roster were pointless similar to all references to payroll. The roster was already on board.

In addition to Lewis, Larnach, and Wallner, it will be important to receive productive rebounds from at least two of Miranda, Julien, and Lee along with continued health from our catchers. While I would love to see Emmanuel Rodriguez and maybe even Luke Keaschall on Opening Day, the Twins will hold them in AAA until at least late May but still hope to get key contributions from the rookies in 2025.  The Twins currently rostered will get their shot at proving their worth and that is what every baseball player ever wants, opportunity.

[DJL44]

They're going to need to hit a ton because this defense looks bad.

[In My La Z boy]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They're going to need to hit a ton because this defense looks bad.

Yes. Will need Gold Gloves from Buxton & Correa this year.

[tony&rodney]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They're going to need to hit a ton because this defense looks bad.

It didn't only look bad last season, it was in actual real time reality just plain poor. So yeah, something needs to give and break differently in 2025 with this group. Thing is, you just never know.

[Blyleven2011]

37 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Yes. Will need Gold Gloves from Buxton & Correa this year.

We need defense , hitting , pitching  and good health ...

Not to worried about the pitching as much as the hitting  , I sure hope the new hitting coach can do something about the players approach with 2 strikes , get the players to hit the pitch the other way , spraying the ball around to all fields will go along way to a successful season ...

[LambchoP]

Pretty much everyone in our lineup is going to need to improve quite a bit from last year if we're going to have any hope of competing. It's sad seeing the same thing play out every off-season. No meaningful additions. Hoping and praying for health, breakouts and major improvement from our guys. We all know the saying, definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Are we really expecting anything different than last year? We may do well initially. But come May or June when Lewis Buxton Correa and one of our SP are hurt, we'll start our decline like last year. Or maybe I'm wrong and everyone will have career years lol, wouldn't that be fun. It sure would help if ownership was on board with improving the team this year, but it's obvious now that's not the case :(

[sweetmusicviola16]

If only we could play 162 games against the white Sox and angels, we'd be WS bound.

[twinzcynic]

I believe it is these two guys plus Miranda. All three have very good hit tools, but I'm afraid the organizational philosophies don't play to their strengths. All can be very good line drive hitters with 25-30 HR potential, but it's precisely these type of hitters that the launch angle revolution affects negatively in my opinion.

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If only we could play 162 games against the white Sox and angels, we'd be WS bound.

Watch them lose the series to Chicago this year. 🤥

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

I believe it is these two guys plus Miranda. All three have very good hit tools, but I'm afraid the organizational philosophies don't play to their strengths. All can be very good line drive hitters with 25-30 HR potential, but it's precisely these type of hitters that the launch angle revolution affects negatively in my opinion.

Wallner adjusted to Major League pitching last year to his big advantage; hope the pitchers do not adjust to the Twins the way they did to Julien.

[Riverbrian]

Key to an elevated Twins lineup? 

In my opinion... the key to this elevated lineup we seek isn't going to be specific players. The key is going to be avoiding the consistent utilization of below average players.  

Let's look at team stats from last year for peer comparison. I'll choose runs as the category to begin our journey because ultimately runs are what all teams are trying to create offensively and then use AB's and OPS for utilization.     

The Twins finished 10th in runs scored last year (742 Runs). Not Bad but let's compare utilization with the D-Backs who were ranked #1 (886 Runs). It's also worth noting that Arizona also led the league in OPS last year as well. 

Sorting by AB's let's look at the OPS of the 9 players Arizona and the 9 players our Twins utilized the most.

Carroll - 589 - .750 / Castro - 558 - .716 

Saurez - 571 - .788 / Santana - 521 - .748

Gurriel - 513 - .757 / Jeffers - 412 - .732

Marte - 504 - .932 / Miranda - 401 - .763

Walker - 479 - .803 / Kepler - 368 - .682

McCarthy - 442 - .749 / Buxton - 355 - .859

Pederson - 367 - .908 / Larnach - 355 - .772

Perdomo - 337 - .718 / Correa - 319 - .905

Moreno - 305 - .733 / Margot - 315 - .626

Arizona get 503 more AB's out of their top 9 (4107 - 3604).

503 extra AB's from your top 9 is about the equivalent of a good every day player. 503 AB's would have ranked 3rd in AB's on the Twins so it's a fairly significant difference.   

The lowest OPS from the Arizona group is .718 with SS Perdomo ranking 8th in AB's with 337 AB's.

In Comparison our Twins had 3 players in our Top 9 with lower OPS that the 9th ranked Perdomo... including the guy with the most AB's last year which was Castro at .716. Kepler and Margot were the other two below... well below. With Margot coming home with a shouldn't be in the major leagues low of .626.

With that trio... The Twins committed a total of 1,241 AB's to average or well below average offensive performers with league average being .711 and if I include Castro's .716 as an example of average... then I must include Perdomo giving the D-Backs a total of 337 AB's of Average and Zero AB's to well below average. 

Let's look at the top 3 AB leaders for the Twins. If Castro, Santana and Jeffers could be added to the D-Backs making it a D-Backs top 12. Castro, Santana and Jeffers would have ranked 12th, 8th and 10th in OPS respectively. 

The top 3 OPS Dudes in the top 9 AB's for Arizona Marte, Pederson and Walker combined for 1,350 AB's. The Top 3 OPS Dudes in the top 9 AB's for Minnesota Correa, Buxton and Larnach combined for 929 AB's. That's a 421 AB difference. 421 AB's would have ranked 3rd in AB's for our Twins. 

What does this tell me? It's bad baseball playing over and over again that ultimately kills you.  

If you insist on rewarding bad baseball with consistent playing time. You better have your best players filling in that hole with consistent playing time. 

The Twins don't have healthy enough superstars to make up that Margot and Kepler ground that was lost. 

So in a nutshell, The Twins are not going to sign impressive top end Free Agent X... We all know that. This means the Twins will have a large problem trying to add at the top end of the talent spectrum and there is no reason to believe that Correa, Buxton and Lewis will turn into 500 AB guys due to injury history.  

So what can we do if we can't add to the top? Don't ADD TO THE BOTTOM. It's the thing that we can do to elevate the lineup.

In other words... If you can't add an Alonso... Don't add a Margot.   

 

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Key to an elevated Twins lineup? 

In my opinion... the key to this elevated lineup we seek isn't going to be specific players. The key is going to be avoiding the consistent utilization of below average players.  

Let's look at team stats from last year for peer comparison. I'll choose runs as the category to begin our journey because ultimately runs are what all teams are trying to create offensively and then use AB's and OPS for utilization.     

The Twins finished 10th in runs scored last year (742 Runs). Not Bad but let's compare utilization with the D-Backs who were ranked #1 (886 Runs). It's also worth noting that Arizona also led the league in OPS last year as well. 

Sorting by AB's let's look at the OPS of the 9 players Arizona and the 9 players our Twins utilized the most.

Carroll - 589 - .750 / Castro - 558 - .716 

Saurez - 571 - .788 / Santana - 521 - .748

Gurriel - 513 - .757 / Jeffers - 412 - .732

Marte - 504 - .932 / Miranda - 401 - .763

Walker - 479 - .803 / Kepler - 368 - .682

McCarthy - 442 - .749 / Buxton - 355 - .859

Pederson - 367 - .908 / Larnach - 355 - .772

Perdomo - 337 - .718 / Correa - 319 - .905

Moreno - 305 - .733 / Margot - 315 - .626

Arizona get 503 more AB's out of their top 9 (4107 - 3604).

503 extra AB's from your top 9 is about the equivalent of a good every day player. 503 AB's would have ranked 3rd in AB's on the Twins so it's a fairly significant difference.   

The lowest OPS from the Arizona group is .718 with SS Perdomo ranking 8th in AB's with 337 AB's.

In Comparison our Twins had 3 players in our Top 9 with lower OPS that the 9th ranked Perdomo... including the guy with the most AB's last year which was Castro at .716. Kepler and Margot were the other two below... well below. With Margot coming home with a shouldn't be in the major leagues low of .626.

With that trio... The Twins committed a total of 1,241 AB's to average or well below average offensive performers with league average being .711 and if I include Castro's .716 as an example of average... then I must include Perdomo giving the D-Backs a total of 337 AB's of Average and Zero AB's to well below average. 

Let's look at the top 3 AB leaders for the Twins. If Castro, Santana and Jeffers could be added to the D-Backs making it a look at the D-Backs top 12. Castro, Santana and Jeffers would have ranked 12th, 8th and 10th respectively. 

The top 3 OPS Dudes in the top 9 AB's for Arizona Marte, Pederson and Walker combined for 1,350 AB's. The Top 3 OPS Dudes in the top 9 AB's for Minnesota Correa, Buxton and Larnach combined for 929 AB's. That's a 421 AB difference. 421 AB's would have ranked 3rd in AB's for our Twins. 

What does this tell me? It's bad baseball playing over and over again that ultimately kills you.  

If you insist on rewarding bad baseball with consistent playing time. You better have your best players filling in that hole with consistent playing time. 

The Twins don't have healthy enough superstars to make up that Margot and Kepler ground that was lost. 

So in a nutshell, The Twins are not going to sign impressive top end Free Agent X... We all know that. This means the Twins will have a large problem trying to add at the top end of the talent spectrum and there is no reason to believe that Correa, Buxton and Lewis will turn into 500 AB guys due to injury history.  

So what can we do if we can't add to the top? Don't ADD TO THE BOTTOM. It's the thing that we can do to elevate the lineup.

In other words... If you can't add an Alonso... Don't add a Margot.   

 

Or Lee, or Martin, or Julien....

[Parfigliano]

Stay healthy and hitting will improve.

[NYCTK]

The whole lineup is question marks that leave you wincing. 

Wallner is going to strike out ~34% of his plate appearances which means there will be week long stretches where he just disappears. He's likely going to hit in the .230s with poor defense. And there's the question of his ability to hit lefties in the Majors, yet to be determined. Will his on base skills and light tower power be enough to overcome his deficiencies? 

Carlos Correa's health is a major concern. His bfef comps at his age are largely catchers and shortstops that fell off cliffs in their early 30s like Hanley Ramirez and Tulowitzki. Can he avoid their fates? Or are his feet issues going to be an ongoing concern the rest of his career? 

Buxton is Buxton and can't be counted on for more than 60 games. 

If all goes right this team can win 85 games. If just a few things go wrong they could win 72. 

[NYCTK]

39 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If only we could play 162 games against the white Sox and angels, we'd be WS bound.

Nah man. They'd still have to play a real team in the playoffs eventually. 

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, RpR said:

Or Lee, or Martin, or Julien....

All 3 can be sent down. None of those three were in the top 9 in utilization.  

The point is the utilization of players who are not getting the job done. Not consistently playing the sub par performance is the key to an elevated Twins lineup. It's what we can do. It's the only thing we can do. 

Everyone likes to focus on the top... I'm saying we should focus on the bottom because we can't focus on the top.

It's what we can do. 

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

So what can we do if we can't add to the top? Don't ADD TO THE BOTTOM. It's the thing that we can do to elevate the lineup.

 

Makes one wonder whether it is better to give those lost plate appearances to EmRod, Keaschall, Eeles, and others versus relying on Gallo, Margot, etc.

[Riverbrian]

On 12/24/2024 at 10:00 AM, tony&rodney said:

Makes one wonder whether it is better to give those lost plate appearances to EmRod, Keaschall, Eeles, and others versus relying on Gallo, Margot, etc.

I believe it is

Those players can be removed from the 26 man roster if need be.

In the end, if that approach doesn't work and it may not... it could still potentially make things better next year because they got some major league exposure or at least some valuable data on players who will be on the roster next year.

Develop or Die by locking yourself into the annual off-season search for under performing Margot's.  

If we get a Solano type performance out of a cheap one year contract... it at least helps in that year with no benefit for next year. Win Loss.

If we get a Margot type performance from a one year contract. It kills us in the current year with no benefit for future years. Which is a Loss Loss.  

The Twins knew Margot was a one year guy. They negotiated his buyout from the Dodgers in the trade. He kept his roster spot ALL YEAR!!!    

[Mahoning]

The Twins remind me of the old days before free agency when the team you had was the team you developed, through your farm system and trades. No help is coming via the front office. This is your team, simple as that. So, yes, everything depends on Larnach and Lewis and Lee and Miranda. When I was a kid in northeastern Ohio I can remember broadcasters saying things like, "If only Max Alvis has the kind of season he's capable of . . . ." Well, alas, he did, and the Tribe finished below .500 again. Let's hope Trevor Larnach is not Max Alvis.

[Doctor Gast]

Very happy with Larnach adjusting, I'm not sure if he has more upside & could use better defense in LF. After Lewis's knee surgeries, fighting soft-tissue side effects, & now fatigue. I'm optimistic that he'll keep on getting better every year. The same way I am with Miranda, Being settled at 1B will do wonders for his health & production. Wallner has improved in the OF & has adjusted but still could improve in his adjusting. I'm encouraged by our rookies from last year, together with the new promising rookies coming up. And most of all no Margot! I have no hope for Julien that he could help the Twins defensively or offensively. Hope they don't drag him along like they did with Margot. Trade him while you can.

[sweetmusicviola16]

46 minutes ago, RpR said:

Watch them lose the series to Chicago this year. 🤥

The reality is Chicago will be better this year, and some of their improvement will come against the Twins too. Right now we've added nothing. Nothing. But we've lost two of our four best fielders. Kepler and Santana. We've lost one of our top 5 hitters. Santana and added nothing. We don't catch the ball for squat or perform fundamental baseball tasks for squat or have basic situational hitting. We're not as good as we were last season when we won 82 games. We played something like .370 ball against winning teams. Then we clamor that we should trade from the one strength that allows us to actually compete, our starting pitching. Frustrating. 

[AKTwinsFan]

Hopefully with new coaching staff they'll get some needed advice and help with their swings. The all or nothing approach didn't work out very well last season. Let's re-sign polo or someone else who can take over at first. 

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The reality is Chicago will be better this year, and some of their improvement will come against the Twins too. Right now we've added nothing. Nothing. But we've lost two of our four best fielders. Kepler and Santana. We've lost one of our top 5 hitters. Santana and added nothing. We don't catch the ball for squat or perform fundamental baseball tasks for squat or have basic situational hitting. We're not as good as we were last season when we won 82 games. We played something like .370 ball against winning teams. Then we clamor that we should trade from the one strength that allows us to actually compete, our starting pitching. Frustrating. 

Chicago is not going to be a better team. If anything, they'll be worse, but they might scrape out a better record just on luck.

Maybe you meant Cleveland or Detroit or Kansas City, all of whom may/wil be better.

[bean5302]

Larnach has hit at his ceiling IMHO. Counting on him to take another step forward at the plate, let alone repeat his 2024 feels like asking for disappointment to me. I think Larnach's 2nd half probably represents who he is as a hitter now (against righties only since he was so aggressively platooned). His performance last year in and of itself is pretty remarkable given his history of being a league average bat. Larnach's xwOBA looked about like his overall 2024 production level. 

Lewis' health and mental state will be key next year. Obviously, he was not at all happy with management or even some other players to end the season. Lewis really needs to avoid another leg injury this coming year as repeated lower body injuries undoubtedly robbed him of a lot of his power and production. If that happens, I expect he'll rebound nicely.

Miranda is more of a guy I think the Twins need to step up next year. I'm not sure why the Twins struggle so mightily with health issues, but when Miranda's been healthy, he seems like a solid wRC+ 115 guy. Carrying that through the year would be a big boost.

 

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The reality is Chicago will be better this year, and some of their improvement will come against the Twins too.

Sad truth. There's no way the Twins are going 13-1 against the White Sox again. Which means this team is going to both have to find those wins elsewhere and then some...and I simply don't see that happening. 

[David Maro]

Doesn't matter what players name you post about,players want to know what position they play. Coming out of ST who's on 1st,2nd and 3rd. You can't have good defense rotating players all over the infield. Now that Santana is gone the only position filled is SS and hopefully Correa can stay on the field. You also have issues in the OF as well hoping that Buxton will be there and who will play the corners. How many different players have they run out to LF since Rosario left. Everyone says Wallner in RF because of his arm but can he catch the ball. Target Field is not a normal RF and is tricky to play with the overhang. It is pretty obvious the ownership is not going to invest in a team they want to sell. Look for a long season if they have injury issues and Rocco doesn't stop playing checkers with the bench.

[Craig Arko]

I’m having a hard time thinking of anyone who doesn’t need to improve. 

[insagt1]

Twins have done nothing to improve their lineup correct? Nothing at all. So are they honestly serious about winning? They are hoping for good health from Correa and Buxton...both bad bets and major improvements from many others. Miranda and Lewis were late season busts. Julien overeat he'd. Lee..who knows. And on down the line. How is any of this going to keep the fans engaged. They were a 4th place team in a 5 team division on merit. How are they remotely better than that? Is this a throwaway or experimental year?