Larnach and Lewis Hold the Key to an Elevated Twins Lineup

[insagt1]

Meant to type Julien never arrived.

[Blyleven2011]

18 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’m having a hard time thinking of anyone who doesn’t need to improve. 

I know your speaking about players , but a major league manager needs to improve too ...

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Very happy with Larnach adjusting, I'm not sure if he has more upside & could use better defense in LF. After Lewis's knee surgeries, fighting soft-tissue side effects, & now fatigue. I'm optimistic that he'll keep on getting better every year. The same way I am with Miranda, Being settled at 1B will do wonders for his health & production. Wallner has improved in the OF & has adjusted but still could improve in his adjusting. I'm encouraged by our rookies from last year, together with the new promising rookies coming up. And most of all no Margot! I have no hope for Julien that he could help the Twins defensively or offensively. Hope they don't drag him along like they did with Margot. Trade him while you can.

This was a FAR bigger problem than Margot: Lewis

Though Margot's last 30 games was strictly downhill also.

[DocBauer]

Agree that we could include Wallner here as well. But to be fair, he's pretty much proven himself over the past couple of seasons, beyond his rough couple of weeks to begin 2024. 

Really pleased by Larnach's growth last season. While 20 HR would be nice, and he's got the power to do it, I'd take teens and 30 + doubles along with that AVG and OB%. Not sure who I like better in the 2 spot, Larnach or Correa. There's reasons to like both of them there.

Miranda is also a potentially big key to me. We've seen how good he can be if healthy. He takes over 1B and adds a big RH bat if he is.

[IndyTwinsFan]

5 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Yes. Will need Gold Gloves from Buxton & Correa this year.

And sadly, even that might not make enough of a difference in our fortunes.

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, RpR said:

This was a FAR bigger problem than Margot:

Though Margot's last 30 games was strictly downhill also.

If you are talking about Lewis, the last few years has been spent rehabbing. He just simply ran out of gas.

[1985Fan]

I also think Larnach has reached his ceiling. I’ll take his second half performance and not expect more. He deserves a spot in the lineup, just not sure where.

Lewis is another story. He couldn’t hit water sitting in a boat in the middle of the ocean second half of last year. And his defense is poor. It will be interesting to see if he has it in him to make adjustments to his swing and approach after never struggling before in his career. Maybe now he’ll listen to offers of help after his “I don’t do slumps” comments. 

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Makes one wonder whether it is better to give those lost plate appearances to EmRod, Keaschall, Eeles, and others versus relying on Gallo, Margot, etc.

Much better to give ABs to the young and see what TC has then give them to the Margot scrap heap type guys.

[mnfireman]

35 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you are talking about Lewis, the last few years has been spent rehabbing. He just simply ran out of gas.

I don't buy that, he's only 25 years old. I think the league adjusted to him (less fastballs) and he was unable to make his own adjustments because he didn't have a healthy lower body (if you don't think having a healthy lower body is important see Buxton, Byron 2023).

Hopefully a full off-season to rehab, concentrate on agility instead of bulk, and study video will pay big dividends for Lewis, and therefore, the Twins. Might want to check the "I don't do slumps" ego a little bit also... 

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Key to an elevated Twins lineup? 

In my opinion... the key to this elevated lineup we seek isn't going to be specific players. The key is going to be avoiding the consistent utilization of below average players.  

Let's look at team stats from last year for peer comparison. I'll choose runs as the category to begin our journey because ultimately runs are what all teams are trying to create offensively and then use AB's and OPS for utilization.     

The Twins finished 10th in runs scored last year (742 Runs). Not Bad but let's compare utilization with the D-Backs who were ranked #1 (886 Runs). It's also worth noting that Arizona also led the league in OPS last year as well. 

Sorting by AB's let's look at the OPS of the 9 players Arizona and the 9 players our Twins utilized the most.

Carroll - 589 - .750 / Castro - 558 - .716 

Saurez - 571 - .788 / Santana - 521 - .748

Gurriel - 513 - .757 / Jeffers - 412 - .732

Marte - 504 - .932 / Miranda - 401 - .763

Walker - 479 - .803 / Kepler - 368 - .682

McCarthy - 442 - .749 / Buxton - 355 - .859

Pederson - 367 - .908 / Larnach - 355 - .772

Perdomo - 337 - .718 / Correa - 319 - .905

Moreno - 305 - .733 / Margot - 315 - .626

Arizona get 503 more AB's out of their top 9 (4107 - 3604).

503 extra AB's from your top 9 is about the equivalent of a good every day player. 503 AB's would have ranked 3rd in AB's on the Twins so it's a fairly significant difference.   

The lowest OPS from the Arizona group is .718 with SS Perdomo ranking 8th in AB's with 337 AB's.

In Comparison our Twins had 3 players in our Top 9 with lower OPS that the 9th ranked Perdomo... including the guy with the most AB's last year which was Castro at .716. Kepler and Margot were the other two below... well below. With Margot coming home with a shouldn't be in the major leagues low of .626.

With that trio... The Twins committed a total of 1,241 AB's to average or well below average offensive performers with league average being .711 and if I include Castro's .716 as an example of average... then I must include Perdomo giving the D-Backs a total of 337 AB's of Average and Zero AB's to well below average. 

Let's look at the top 3 AB leaders for the Twins. If Castro, Santana and Jeffers could be added to the D-Backs making it a D-Backs top 12. Castro, Santana and Jeffers would have ranked 12th, 8th and 10th in OPS respectively. 

The top 3 OPS Dudes in the top 9 AB's for Arizona Marte, Pederson and Walker combined for 1,350 AB's. The Top 3 OPS Dudes in the top 9 AB's for Minnesota Correa, Buxton and Larnach combined for 929 AB's. That's a 421 AB difference. 421 AB's would have ranked 3rd in AB's for our Twins. 

What does this tell me? It's bad baseball playing over and over again that ultimately kills you.  

If you insist on rewarding bad baseball with consistent playing time. You better have your best players filling in that hole with consistent playing time. 

The Twins don't have healthy enough superstars to make up that Margot and Kepler ground that was lost. 

So in a nutshell, The Twins are not going to sign impressive top end Free Agent X... We all know that. This means the Twins will have a large problem trying to add at the top end of the talent spectrum and there is no reason to believe that Correa, Buxton and Lewis will turn into 500 AB guys due to injury history.  

So what can we do if we can't add to the top? Don't ADD TO THE BOTTOM. It's the thing that we can do to elevate the lineup.

In other words... If you can't add an Alonso... Don't add a Margot.   

 

Even if you can add an Alonso do not add a Margot.  Just don't.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you are talking about Lewis, the last few years has been spent rehabbing. He just simply ran out of gas.

That is not running out of gas; except for a few fortunate home runs, he has never equalled the hype given him here.

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

So what can we do if we can't add to the top? Don't ADD TO THE BOTTOM. It's the thing that we can do to elevate the lineup.

So the solution to the below-replacement level bottom of our depth chart is to not try to make it better?

There is room on this roster for two more offensive starters. They need an infielder and an outfielder. If they're going to cycle through rookies anyway then they need to sell veterans and go for a real rebuild.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Not to worried about the pitching as much as the hitting 

I understand your point, but I'm sort of feeling the opposite. I have a lot of optimism that the bats will come around this season, but I have more concerns about the pitching, both the starters and the depth in the bullpen. On paper, it all looks "good" but I'm not so optimistic the arms will hold up. 

[Hubie29]

22 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Pretty much everyone in our lineup is going to need to improve quite a bit from last year if we're going to have any hope of competing. It's sad seeing the same thing play out every off-season. No meaningful additions. Hoping and praying for health, breakouts and major improvement from our guys. We all know the saying, definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Are we really expecting anything different than last year? We may do well initially. But come May or June when Lewis Buxton Correa and one of our SP are hurt, we'll start our decline like last year. Or maybe I'm wrong and everyone will have career years lol, wouldn't that be fun. It sure would help if ownership was on board with improving the team this year, but it's obvious now that's not the case :(

Spot on. 

[Hubie29]

21 hours ago, NYCTK said:

The whole lineup is question marks that leave you wincing. 

Wallner is going to strike out ~34% of his plate appearances which means there will be week long stretches where he just disappears. He's likely going to hit in the .230s with poor defense. And there's the question of his ability to hit lefties in the Majors, yet to be determined. Will his on base skills and light tower power be enough to overcome his deficiencies? 

Carlos Correa's health is a major concern. His bfef comps at his age are largely catchers and shortstops that fell off cliffs in their early 30s like Hanley Ramirez and Tulowitzki. Can he avoid their fates? Or are his feet issues going to be an ongoing concern the rest of his career? 

Buxton is Buxton and can't be counted on for more than 60 games. 

If all goes right this team can win 85 games. If just a few things go wrong they could win 72. 

Perfect. I agree. Granny's liver pudding is going to taste just as bad this year as it did last year!

[Hubie29]

21 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The reality is Chicago will be better this year, and some of their improvement will come against the Twins too. Right now we've added nothing. Nothing. But we've lost two of our four best fielders. Kepler and Santana. We've lost one of our top 5 hitters. Santana and added nothing. We don't catch the ball for squat or perform fundamental baseball tasks for squat or have basic situational hitting. We're not as good as we were last season when we won 82 games. We played something like .370 ball against winning teams. Then we clamor that we should trade from the one strength that allows us to actually compete, our starting pitching. Frustrating. 

Exactly. You stated things very well. This is the feeling of 90% of Twins fans including myself, fans for the most part don't speak out.  

[Hubie29]

19 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Twins have done nothing to improve their lineup correct? Nothing at all. So are they honestly serious about winning? They are hoping for good health from Correa and Buxton...both bad bets and major improvements from many others. Miranda and Lewis were late season busts. Julien overeat he'd. Lee..who knows. And on down the line. How is any of this going to keep the fans engaged. They were a 4th place team in a 5 team division on merit. How are they remotely better than that? Is this a throwaway 

 

This is it until new ownership. Yes it is a throwaway year for the players, unless all they care about is stats, and more importantly the fans. Save your money and find better things to do. 

[Hubie29]

19 hours ago, RpR said:

This was a FAR bigger problem than Margot: Lewis

Though Margot's last 30 games was strictly downhill also.

Lewis packed it in the last month of the season

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

This is it until new ownership. Yes it is a throwaway year for the players, unless all they care about is stats, and more importantly the fans. Save your money and find better things to do. 

Not too sure about " throwaway year for the players, unless all they care about is stats" What does that mean? If you have 26 players who all they care about is personal stats. Wouldn't that equate to a good season if only half had career seasons? And if good play was as simple as turning on a switch to get a big contract, wouldn't every player do that all the time?

[Hubie29]

26 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Not too sure about " throwaway year for the players, unless all they care about is stats" What does that mean? If you have 26 players who all they care about is personal stats. Wouldn't that equate to a good season if only half had career seasons? And if good play was as simple as turning on a switch to get a big contract, wouldn't every player do that all the time?

Problem is, our roster is not capable of "turning it on".  They are who they are and who they have been. My point all along. We can't improve or create more excitement until we try to improve to create more excitement. New owners! I know you don't see it that way, I get thumbs down from you all the time. You are in the 10% that have a positive outlook. That's ok. 

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Hubie29 said:

Problem is, our roster is not capable of "turning it on".  They are who they are and who they have been. My point all along. We can't improve or create more excitement until we try to improve to create more excitement. New owners! I know you don't see it that way, I get thumbs down from you all the time. You are in the 10% that have a positive outlook. That's ok. 

I thumbs down certain aspects. It's ok to disagree. As far as optimism goes. I don't see them as being terrible. If you look at the Guardians collapse in 23 and their turnaround in 24 even after losing Bieber, I see some similarities. So I don't think they're as terrible as some say. I think they're better just by subtracting Margot and Farmer. If whoever takes over those roles gives them anything at all it'll be an improvement. Health will be a huge factor as it is every year for all teams.

[Schmoeman5]

On 12/24/2024 at 11:04 AM, bean5302 said:

Larnach has hit at his ceiling IMHO. Counting on him to take another step forward at the plate, let alone repeat his 2024 feels like asking for disappointment to me. I think Larnach's 2nd half probably represents who he is as a hitter now (against righties only since he was so aggressively platooned). His performance last year in and of itself is pretty remarkable given his history of being a league average bat. Larnach's xwOBA looked about like his overall 2024 production level. 

Lewis' health and mental state will be key next year. Obviously, he was not at all happy with management or even some other players to end the season.

 

IMHO. Haha. Lot of data based information there. Lewis not at all happy with management might very well be true. I don't know. Or even some other players??? You've mentioned that several times now. Who are these players? Are you referring to when he said he was wearing down or getting tired from the long season and there were responses from teammates? I'm pretty sure Royce is better than that. The mental part is spot on. 90% of the games is half mental. Or something like that.

[Hubie29]

56 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I thumbs down certain aspects. It's ok to disagree. As far as optimism goes. I don't see them as being terrible. If you look at the Guardians collapse in 23 and their turnaround in 24 even after losing Bieber, I see some similarities. So I don't think they're as terrible as some say. I think they're better just by subtracting Margot and Farmer. If whoever takes over those roles gives them anything at all it'll be an improvement. Health will be a huge factor as it is every year for all teams.

Wouldn't it be nice to not have to say "I don't think they will be terrible"? That's all I'm asking. I want free agency to mean something. Wouldn't it be exciting to wonder what huge free agents we are bidding on? Instead we wait until the mutts are left, and then we pick and choose the cutest ones. This won't happen until we get new owners. Until then it's not easy getting excited. 

[thelanges5]

Only 27 games with Lewis, Correa, and Buck last season. Increasing that number is another key to the teams success. 
 

If these two are batting 2-3, is Correa lead off or cleanup?

 

[KBJ1]

I'm  not as excited about next year as I was about last year.

SP & Bullpen are still an issue as well as defense and the lack of speed. Emmanuel Rodriguez needs to step up & into LF. Larnach needs a 1B mitt and Lewis & Lee (someone) needs to field 2nd & 3rd better than we have seen. 

Lastly : everyone needs to stay healthy!!

Gonna take a miracle.

[Heiny]

I can't really disagree with most comments, and I like the article.  But my biggest concerns are with the team approach to what used to be baseball.  Play sound defense, hit the cutoffs, good base running and use the bat to make contact with the ball.  Strikeouts are "almost never" productive at bats.  But if you put the ball in play, you may find a hole.  And if you can't do most of this well, maybe talk to Manfred about changing some more rules to better adapt to your game.  Hey, how bout this?  Third strikeout in a row changes to a home run.  Or maybe, run to second base first and if you knock the pitcher over it's worth two runs.  Oh wait.  Don't tell Manfred these.  He might actually think these would be good ideas.