The Twins Are Left With 3 Questions to Answer as Winter Meetings End

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s Winter Meetings are coming to a close, and the Twins created more questions than answers during their time in Dallas. Here are three questions that remain as the team’s offseason begins.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

For multiple reasons, the Twins weren’t expected to be active during MLB’s Winter Meetings. The team is in a tight financial situation, so there is little room to add players in free agency. Also, the front office has tended to use a patient approach to trading and signing players, which has pros and cons. Minnesota has one of the highest floors among AL teams entering the offseason, with their roster projected as the league’s fourth-best. However, many fans are clamoring for change after the team’s disastrous collapse to finish the 2024 campaign.

With that as a backdrop, here are three questions that the front office will need to answer in the coming months. Each answer will have long-term ramifications. 

1. Will the Team Trade Carlos Correa?
Rumors around the Twins taking calls on Correa were the most significant news out of the winter meetings. Correa has proven himself to be one of the team’s most valuable players when he has been healthy, but plantar fasciitis has limited him over the last two seasons. His $30+ million contract per season is an albatross for an ownership group that dropped payroll last season and is expected to stay around $130 million next year. 

When the Twins signed Correa, the team’s payroll was rising every season to the point where it should have been between $165-180 million entering next year. There was room in that expected payroll for Correa, but that might not be the case anymore. Correa has a full no-trade clause, but the Twins might be able to convince him that the team is entering a soft rebuild, and a trade will put him in a better position to win now. It seems likely that the Twins would need to be overwhelmed by a return for Correa to make a deal come to fruition. 

2. How Can the Front Office Cut Payroll?
FanGraphs projects the Twins to have a current payroll of around $142 million, with arbitration estimates added to the team’s current guaranteed contracts. Reports this winter have the Twins ownership group pushing for the payroll to be closer to $130 million. The most straightforward moves for the Twins are to trade Chris Paddack, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro. Those three players could save the Twins around $18 million, but the Twins would likely need to pay half of Vázquez’s salary based on what free-agent catchers have been getting this winter. 

The Twins can also make a more significant move to free up payroll space. Correa’s contract is the biggest on the team, and his trade situation is mentioned above. Another option is trading Pablo López because he doesn’t have a no-trade clause and is set to make over $21 million next season. The free-agent pitching market has been higher than expected this winter, which might force contending teams to get creative. López would have been a free agent this winter (if the Twins hadn’t extended him) and he’d likely get a deal for five years and over $100 million. Instead, he is due only $21.75 million per season for the next three years. He will have excess value on the trade market, which the front office must consider. 

How Can the Front Office Improve the Team Based on Payroll Limitations?
Falvey made it clear at the winter meetings that there are a few ways the team can make improvements, even with the ownership’s payroll limitations. Health has been a significant focus for the Twins in recent years, and that continues to be a focus with the team’s three biggest hitters (Correa, Bryon Buxton, and Royce Lewis). Minnesota has also found ways to improve the team’s depth in recent years, so if there are injuries, capable players are on the roster to fill the void. Losing veteran players like Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer are holes that must be filled this winter. 

The Twins also have one of baseball’s strongest farm systems, so they may be able to fill these holes with internal options. Among Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects, ten players finished at Double- or Triple-A last season. Many of these players have an opportunity to impact the big-league roster next season. Minnesota also has other young players who played last season, such as Brooks Lee, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Austin Martin. This group of players offers another layer of depth, even with questions about their performance from last year. 

Minnesota's front office is in a challenging spot. Do they trade their superstar player? Can they find wiggle room in the payroll? Is there enough internal depth to be competitive? The answers aren't straightforward, and it's shaping up to be a complex winter for the Twins.

How will the Twins’ front office answer these questions? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[LambchoP]

The truth is, last year they had a fourth place team that had a historic collapse at the end of the year. With the AL Central teams all getting better for 2025, the Twins are going to roll out the same exact team as last year and just hope for the best. This is not a competent strategy and I just really hope the new owners place an importance on winning and not just profit.

[tony&rodney]

It is at least marginally interesting to me how Tampa Bay and Cleveland manage to complete trades and push in small ways in hopes of putting a better team on the field in 2025, but the Twins seem frozen. Every article, seemingly, includes an arrow of scorn towards ownership which then excuses any attempts at dealing with reality. I guess that will be the offseason more or less. There are two distinct positions: 1. The team as currently rostered is perfectly fine and no changes are needed other than a tweak or two on the margins. This due to the limits of the budget; and 2. There are opportunities for change which would require some challenging deals.

I'm not sure I understand the direction of the Twins or see a plan, but I don't need to know either because I'm just a fan. It just seems like there should be a direction of some sort. If the plan is to roll it back, perhaps Falvey & Sons could have success selling that direction aggressively. I wonder how people see all of the Guardians, Tigers, and Royals as falling back next season while the White Sox continue on in their chaotic position, leaving the Twins to be left as AL Central winners by default because our guys will all stay healthy and rebound. I hope this view is correct.

[redstorm]

Not trying to shoot the messenger (and your #2 talking point is very well thought out), but I am so sick about hearing about the cutting of payroll. It's such a ridiculous notion that it should even be a thing.

[NYCTK]

I keep hearing from optimistic Twins fans that the Twins have one of the best farm systems. But this is not really true. This WAS true for a minute when all of Brooks Lee, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews were still prospects after the draft. But they've all graduated, even though it's almost certain Matthews starts the year back in AAA. 

Matthews is interesting because he lost his rookie status due to days on the roster and not playing time, but that's also cause he was very bad in his first go around that he couldn't stay on the field enough. Even if he were eligible he'd be outside the top 100 anyways. 

As it stands, the Twins have 1 incredible prospect and two very good, intriguing prospects. And then of course plenty of prospects outside the top 100, as well as Lee and Festa who are going to be leaned on heavily this season (and would be in the top 100 if they were still prospects).

There is young talent but this talking point folks have adopted that the Twins have one of the best farm systems needs to go away. It's perfectly fine and good even. But not standing out in any real way. 

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, redstorm said:

Not trying to shoot the messenger (and your #2 talking point is very well thought out), but I am so sick about hearing about the cutting of payroll. It's such a ridiculous notion that it should even be a thing.

I'm sick of fans stating it as if it's just the way things are and no way around it. If you're going to mention it, it must be stated that it's due to the owners that care only about money. If you mention the payroll being cut you should also mention it's because billionaires want a new fancy boat. 

[redstorm]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I'm sick of fans stating it as if it's just the way things are and no way around it. If you're going to mention it, it must be stated that it's due to the owners that care only about money. If you mention the payroll being cut you should also mention it's because billionaires want a new fancy boat. 

Sorry if I wasn't more clear, but everything you said was indirectly implied in my comment/frustration.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

My first thought upon seeing the title of this article was "Just three?"

How are the Twins going to repair fan/team relations?
Are the Twins going to extend Ober?  Ryan?
Are the Twins going to go full youth movement and trade anyone outside of arbitration?
Is there any realistic FA the Twins could sign today?
How does the potential sale of the team impact how business is being done today?
 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Totally agree about prospects of cutting of payroll.  Going from 140 to 130 million.  If the Pohlad's are selling and move on.  Which they say they are.  I can't believe any new owners will care one way another.  But for me personally, has a long-time season ticket holder it does.  Who wants to see if competitive team on the field next year it matters.  It reduces their chances to win the central division more than benefit of cost saving.  Being a long time Minnesota fan, nothing reduces ticket sales and TB viewership more than losing.  Which reduce revenues that offset any cost saving from cutting payroll.

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I'm sick of fans stating it as if it's just the way things are and no way around it. If you're going to mention it, it must be stated that it's due to the owners that care only about money. If you mention the payroll being cut you should also mention it's because billionaires want a new fancy boat. 

What would change if every MLB team owner adapted a policy of operating at break-even?  Do you understand that the Twins relative ability to spend would actually be further eroded if all the owners were willing to forego every last dollar of profit.  The problem is not that teams care about profit.  The problem is revenue disparity.

Perhaps I missed it but It's just amazing that with all the strife about spending every off-season, not one TD writer has ever provided a meaningful account of how the Twins percentage of spending compares to other teams.  This is not that hard to do put together.  There are organizations that provide revenue figures for every team.  Yes, it's an estimate but the variables are relatively easy to estimate and the payroll numbers are very easy to put together.  Throw them in a spreadsheet and produce a percentage of revenue number.  Cmon TD writers.  Doesn't someone want to prove the Twins are cheap.

[JD-TWINS]

22 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I keep hearing from optimistic Twins fans that the Twins have one of the best farm systems. But this is not really true. This WAS true for a minute when all of Brooks Lee, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews were still prospects after the draft. But they've all graduated, even though it's almost certain Matthews starts the year back in AAA. 

Matthews is interesting because he lost his rookie status due to days on the roster and not playing time, but that's also cause he was very bad in his first go around that he couldn't stay on the field enough. Even if he were eligible he'd be outside the top 100 anyways. 

As it stands, the Twins have 1 incredible prospect and two very good, intriguing prospects. And then of course plenty of prospects outside the top 100, as well as Lee and Festa who are going to be leaned on heavily this season (and would be in the top 100 if they were still prospects).

There is young talent but this talking point folks have adopted that the Twins have one of the best farm systems needs to go away. It's perfectly fine and good even. But not standing out in any real way. 

Pitchers - pitching depth counts as well. I agree, it’s not elite but Emma & Walker are two pretty solid position guys on the come……Keaschall’s bat, etc.

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What would change if every MLB team owner adapted a policy of operating at break-even?  Do you understand that the Twins relative ability to spend would actually be further eroded if all the owners were willing to forego every last dollar of profit.  The problem is not that teams care about profit.  The problem is revenue disparity.

Perhaps I missed it but It's just amazing that with all the strife about spending every off-season, not one TD writer has ever provided a meaningful account of how the Twins percentage of spending compares to other teams.  This is not that hard to do put together.  There are organizations that provide revenue figures for every team.  Yes, it's an estimate but the variables are relatively easy to estimate and the payroll numbers are very easy to put together.  Throw them in a spreadsheet and produce a percentage of revenue number.  Cmon TD writers.  Doesn't someone want to prove the Twins are cheap.

Have at it…….the spreadsheet.

I’ve seen numerous times the revenues of the Clubs (1-30) - market sizes of Clubs - % spending as a piece of revenues. Have either seen it here in parts and then maybe looked on my own??? Anyway, it’s no mystery where the Twins nor other Team’s stand relative to payroll spending. I think that non-TV & gate revenues are probably harder to capture accurately if the Team doesn’t share - doubt any of them do since they are all private concerns. Pretty tough to know ad dollars flowing in or merch sales to the Dodgers or others.

[Whitey333]

I'm sick of hearing about all these great prospects and the Twins great farm system.  These prospects are only suspects until they can play and contribute to a winning team at the major league level.  All these names people through out there are just that: names.  Most of the Twins prospects currently on the major league roster haven't proven they belong yet.  Way too much hype not nearly enough results.

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Doesn't someone want to prove the Twins are cheap.

I would LOVE for you to do a writeup about how the Pohlads are actually generous with their money in regards to the Twins actually. 

That time they finally won a playoff game and then cut payroll by 20%? That was them really demonstrating how NOT cheap they are. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

It is at least marginally interesting to me how Tampa Bay and Cleveland manage to complete trades and push in small ways in hopes of putting a better team on the field in 2025, but the Twins seem frozen. Every article, seemingly, includes an arrow of scorn towards ownership which then excuses any attempts at dealing with reality. I guess that will be the offseason more or less. There are two distinct positions: 1. The team as currently rostered is perfectly fine and no changes are needed other than a tweak or two on the margins. This due to the limits of the budget; and 2. There are opportunities for change which would require some challenging deals.

I'm quite confident you have the intentions wrong here, particularly in regards to Tampa. They aren't trading star players to put a better team on the field. They are trading them to keep payroll low and they are HOPING it it doesn't impact their record too much.

When it comes to trading star players, the team doing the selling comes up with the short end of the stick in the vast majority of the trades.

[tony&rodney]

The owners of the Twins have given and taken away. I can't think of a time where I was a fan of the current ownership, even a little bit. I'm a fan of baseball. There can be no argument that a budget restricts the options for the front office in building a roster. However, it remains a reality for a number of teams. The Twins have the highest payroll in their division and their expenditures also eclipse that of their friendly neighbors next door, the Milwaukee Brewers. I wish the Twins had a $160-180 million 26 person roster payroll, but they don't. 

It seems understandable to me that many people want the Twins to keep the players they currently have in their organization, even if I may want some change. It seems there are opportunities to compete within the budget set, whether that is $110M (a number mentioned yesterday by a person on a different site who said they have heard blah, blah, blah) or the most common number, $130M. As disappointed as I may be with the turn last offseason regarding payroll, hate is never a good emotion. 

[Major League Ready]

25 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I would LOVE for you to do a writeup about how the Pohlads are actually generous with their money in regards to the Twins actually. 

That time they finally won a playoff game and then cut payroll by 20%? That was them really demonstrating how NOT cheap they are. 

And I would love for any TD writer to actually provide an accounting of fact.  Given the controversy and strife that surrounds this is you would think someone would be chomping at the bit to prove they are cheap which of course is a relative term so let's prove they are cheaper than other owners. Why isn't anyone willing to compile the revenue and payroll numbers for the entire league?

I am not claiming the Pohlad's are cheap nor generous.  My guess is that their percentage of spend is middle of the road (average).  Many others (like you) insist they are cheap while providing absolutely no definitive proof.  It's customary in any professional landscape to provide support for such a claim, especially when made as fervently as they are here.  Yet, no TD writer has been willing to explore the validity of these assertions.  

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm quite confident you have the intentions wrong here, particularly in regards to Tampa. They aren't trading star players to put a better team on the field. They are trading them to keep payroll low and they are HOPING it it doesn't impact their record too much.

When it comes to trading star players, the team doing the selling comes up with the short end of the stick in the vast majority of the trades.

The intention is that reality exists and one must live within it. Tampa Bay and other teams have hard realities (money) to contend with on an annual basis. I'm not suggesting they are model franchises at all. The reality of money does not stop these teams from being proactive. They hit and miss on moves but continue to adjust every year because they must in order to keep the numbers where instructed. Cleveland just traded Andres Gimenez. I don't believe the club has tossed a white flag. The trade was made in order to shift resources in a manner that keeps the team in a good place or improves a position of need for their club. If Cleveland could have a $130 million payroll, Gimenez might still be a Guardian. They move pieces to remain competitive. No doubt Cleveland has concerns about their 2025 and 2026 seasons and make decisions accordingly based on their own reality. 

I'm not happy that the Twins are sliding backwards a bit in payroll, but if this is what is required the front office must adjust. The front office has a job to do and they earn more than the MLB minimum. So, yes, I expect the team with the largest payroll in their division to make hard decisions in an attempt to improve the team. Now if Falvey & Sons believe they have a championship club right now, by all means the Twins should just stand pat.

[mikelink45]

These essays simply invite the Twins fans to air their frustrations.  Trading Correa or Lopez to get better is simply ridiculous.

But enough of that - I have been following the baseball news and once again it is the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets doing their outrageous spending and the rest of the teams sitting back and watching helplessly.  The Dodgers add Conforto for $17M as just another player on their all-star roster.  

The poor Blue Jays try to spend money and no one wants to take it.  So what do the other teams do?  I know fans in Baltimore are as frustrated as Minnesotans.  But what can be done to stop the disparity?  I see tiers for players, but there needs to be tiers for teams too.

Willing to spend outrageous amounts:

Dodgers, Mets, Yankees. Boston

Wanting spend millions but no one has taken it the last two years

Blue Jays, Giants

Spent millions and wondering why it isn't working

San Diego, Texas

Have not spent millions, but somehow stays competitive

Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Arizona

Has the resources, but maybe not the will to spend

Baltimore, St Louis, Cubs, Houston, Atlanta

Working with their resources to try to get better but not able to compete with top

Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle, Reds, 

A good team that self inflicts damage to its reputation and team

Minnesota Twins

At the bottom and trying to climb back up

Chicago White Sox, Nationals, Sacramento, Pirates

Hopeless (almost included all the above)

Miami, Angels, Colorado

[Major League Ready]

32 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm quite confident you have the intentions wrong here, particularly in regards to Tampa. They aren't trading star players to put a better team on the field. They are trading them to keep payroll low and they are HOPING it it doesn't impact their record too much.

When it comes to trading star players, the team doing the selling comes up with the short end of the stick in the vast majority of the trades.

If you look back at Cleveland's history, you will find that a huge part of their success has been trading away established players for prospects.  They have done a good job finding deals for players that were MLB ready but not established.  Andrés Giménez / Josh Naylor / David Fry / Bo Naylor / Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith from their 2024 team were all acquired as prospects.  If you look back, there is a long list of players that were very important to the success of the best teams Cleveland fielded over the past couple of decades.   Mike Clevinger / Trevor Bauer / Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco were all acquired as prospects.  The majority of posters on TD are very much against how Cleveland has built their rosters over the past 25 years even though they have had the success among teams in the bottom half of revenue

[Blyleven2011]

The twins have had those same 3 questions for the past several years ...

Righthanded  bats , bullpen help now more than ever ,  a solid left hander ( they couldn't find one in the rule 5 draft ) , first basemen  is needed  and they continue to have nothing for the future for a catcher  ...

The holes  are never plugged and the ship is sinking  ...

If the twins are going win ,  the players in the lineup are all going  to half to have career years like 2019 , if they trot out the same lineup that they had at the end of 2024 were in a heap of trouble  ...

I don't have a problem with our  rotation of starters , it's the inconsistency of the hitters  ...

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Have at it…….the spreadsheet.

I’ve seen numerous times the revenues of the Clubs (1-30) - market sizes of Clubs - % spending as a piece of revenues. Have either seen it here in parts and then maybe looked on my own??? Anyway, it’s no mystery where the Twins nor other Team’s stand relative to payroll spending. I think that non-TV & gate revenues are probably harder to capture accurately if the Team doesn’t share - doubt any of them do since they are all private concerns. Pretty tough to know ad dollars flowing in or merch sales to the Dodgers or others.

I have seen a few articles and compiled the information myself.  I have a pretty good idea of where the twins stand in terms of relative spend.  Anything I put up, regardless of how factual, that disproved the "cheap Pohlad" narrative would be summarily dismissed.  Maybe they are cheap but the majority of people who are constantly complaining are doing so unincumbered by any supporting facts.  I will continue to ask why a TD writer is not willing to compile the data given the interest and discussion on in this subject?  

Can any of the TD writers explain why this would not be a great article that most everyone on this site would love to read if done in an unbiased manner?

[TopGunn#22]

Cody supplied three questions, but I agree with Fire Dan Gladden, there are a bunch of additional questions and each question that is answered leads to additional questions.

I can honestly say I was never a fan of Calvin Griffith other than bringing the Twins to Minnesota and I've never been a fan of the Pohlad family except in 1987 and 1991. 

Tony&Rodney summarized this quite well.  Does current ownership and FO consider the Twins roster once they've cut the payroll to $130 million to be a clear contender for the division championship if not the favorite?  Do they think this while factoring in how much the Royals and Tigers improved last season and knowing that Cleveland is always in the hunt?  Clearly, Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit have figured out how to do MORE with LESS than our FO has.

Or, does current ownership/FO feel that they can pull off a Seattle Mariners type of miracle?  I'm referencing when the Mariners in back to back seasons said goodbye to A-Rod, Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson and then went out and set an American League record with 115 wins.  If the Twins were able to dump the Vasquez and Paddack salaries for whatever they could get back and then trade Correa, Lopez and Buxton while completely revamping the roster with what they got back for those trades involving the "Stars" as well as investing the massive amount of payroll $$$ saved in additional players...would the Twins be better in 2025 and beyond???

That's the either/or question.  And it certainly could fall somewhere in between, but that's essentially the debate.  

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Spent millions and wondering why it isn't working

San Diego, Texas

I thought I saw Texas celebrating on the field in 2023. Did I dream that up?

[bean5302]

The Twins do not have one of the highest floors. We're only through Winter meetings and the Twins have already dropped from 4th to 7th, and the team isn't signing essentially any of the 117 WAR of free agent value out there who will be going elsewhere. The Twins' 44 WAR is only 4 points higher than 9 other teams, most of whom are expected to be active in free agency yet. That's also not the teams' floor. That's the team's near ceiling, assuming over 450 PA for Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton???, Miranda, and 169-196 innings from Ryan, Ober and Lopez. We're talking legitimate best case scenarios.

The Twins also do not have one of the strongest farm systems. They rank #18 in Fangraphs currently, and I suspect they'll rank similar elsewhere. Brooks Lee, David Festa and Zebby Matthews all exceeded rookie status so they've dropped off some lists.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

I thought I saw Texas celebrating on the field in 2023. Did I dream that up?

Pretty sure I saw San Diego advance in the playoffs despite playing in the toughest division in baseball, and then push the Dodgers to the brink of elimination last year as well.

[NYCTK]

33 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

And I would love for any TD writer to actually provide an accounting of fact.  Given the controversy and strife that surrounds this is you would think someone would be chomping at the bit to prove they are cheap which of course is a relative term so let's prove they are cheaper than other owners. Why isn't anyone willing to compile the revenue and payroll numbers for the entire league?

I am not claiming the Pohlad's are cheap nor generous.  My guess is that their percentage of spend is middle of the road (average).  Many others (like you) insist they are cheap while providing absolutely no definitive proof.  It's customary in any professional landscape to provide support for such a claim, especially when made as fervently as they are here.  Yet, no TD writer has been willing to explore the validity of these assertions.  

'The Pohlads suck no less than the average individuals who have accumulated obscene wealth, primarily through the exploitation and pillaging of their communities' is not a point in their favor. 

[nicksaviking]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The intention is that reality exists and one must live within it. Tampa Bay and other teams have hard realities (money) to contend with on an annual basis. I'm not suggesting they are model franchises at all. The reality of money does not stop these teams from being proactive. They hit and miss on moves but continue to adjust every year because they must in order to keep the numbers where instructed. Cleveland just traded Andres Gimenez. I don't believe the club has tossed a white flag. The trade was made in order to shift resources in a manner that keeps the team in a good place or improves a position of need for their club. If Cleveland could have a $130 million payroll, Gimenez might still be a Guardian. They move pieces to remain competitive. No doubt Cleveland has concerns about their 2025 and 2026 seasons and make decisions accordingly based on their own reality. 

Gimenez is a terrible hitter with an even more terrible contract. That move is like the Twins getting out from under the Christian Vazquez mistake, not Correa, Lopez or the other good players people are talking about moving.

Whether Cleveland had a 60M payroll or a 200M payroll, moving Gimenez was a good decision.

[NYCTK]

38 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

A good team that self inflicts damage to its reputation and team

Minnesota Twins

Hmm. You sure about that? 

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Gimenez is a terrible hitter with an even more terrible contract. That move is like the Twins getting out from under the Christian Vazquez mistake, not Correa, Lopez or the other good players people are talking about moving.

Wait? You are suggesting that a player with 16.7 WAR in the last three years is similar to a player with 1.6 WAR? I actually like Vazquez but maybe you meant to highlight the inability of the Toronto front office to recognize useful players for their team.

I'm confused by this comparison, but my initial point was that teams need to adjust to their own individual realities.