The Twins Are Left With 3 Questions to Answer as Winter Meetings End

[NYCTK]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins do not have one of the highest floors. We're only through Winter meetings and the Twins have already dropped from 4th to 7th, and the team isn't signing essentially any of the 117 WAR of free agent value out there who will be going elsewhere. The Twins' 44 WAR is only 4 points higher than 9 other teams, most of whom are expected to be active in free agency yet. That's also not the teams' floor. That's the team's near ceiling, assuming over 450 PA for Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton???, Miranda, and 169-196 innings from Ryan, Ober and Lopez. We're talking legitimate best case scenarios.

The Twins also do not have one of the strongest farm systems. They rank #18 in Fangraphs currently, and I suspect they'll rank similar elsewhere. Brooks Lee, David Festa and Zebby Matthews all exceeded rookie status so they've dropped off some lists.

Agreed on everything here. Front office looks pretty pathetic this last year. Kind of looks like Falvey has kind of given up. And I don't actually blame him. Your boss tells you out of nowhere that your project budget has been slashed after you built everything up and delivered on expectations? Oh yeah, they're also selling the company and there's no real incentive to deliver anything. You'd be livid. 

[NYCTK]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Pretty sure I saw San Diego advance in the playoffs despite playing in the toughest division in baseball, and then push the Dodgers to the brink of elimination last year as well.

You can quite literally argue the Padres were the second best team in baseball last season. 

[Original_JB]

Cut the payroll, cut the payroll, cut the payroll... Why does it seem I'm the only one b*tching about the Twins being what, 'unwilling' or "too stupid" to put an advertising patch on their jersey? Average MLB team income is $8M/yr. from that endeavor. FREE money! That deal was "rounding 3rd base" and yes, that is a quote from the Twins, 2 YEARS ago. Just how inept are they?

[nicksaviking]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Wait? You are suggesting that a player with 16.7 WAR in the last three years is similar to a player with 1.6 WAR? I actually like Vazquez but maybe you meant to highlight the inability of the Toronto front office to recognize useful players for their team.

I'm confused by this comparison, but my initial point was that teams need to adjust to their own individual realities.

That WAR is entirely defense. If Twins fans haven't figured out that you should never pay a premium for a glove only player, then they haven't been paying attention for the last two decades. Yes, I think Toronto made a huge blunder here.

I wouldn't want Gimenez on this team any more than I'd want Amed Rosario.

To your point, trading bad players on rough contracts should always be a goal. Trading good players on rough contracts more than likely doesn't help your win percentage. At least not next year.

[Jocko87]

In which the three questions are all creations of the chattering class.

I bet they aren’t thinking about any of these things.  We’ve already confirmed the item 1 was completely a media creation. 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That WAR is entirely defense. If Twins fans haven't figured out that you should never pay a premium for a glove only player, then they haven't been paying attention for the last two decades. Yes, I think Toronto made a huge blunder here.

I wouldn't want Gimenez on this team any more than I'd want Amed Rosario.

Ok, I accept that you believe Gimenez has little value and include Rosario as well .... fine. The conversation wasn't really about WAR or actually players though. I guess i could have used the KC-CIN trade to show a similar manner to accomplish goals for next season. There are many who dislike those players as well.

I will merely reiterate that all businesses need to function within their own individual financial realities.  Cleveland seems to do that based on their won-loss record. The Twins? They are faced with a few challenges this offseason. 

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Ok, I accept that you believe Gimenez has little value and include Rosario as well .... fine. The conversation wasn't really about WAR or actually players though. I guess i could have used the KC-CIN trade to show a similar manner to accomplish goals for next season. There are many who dislike those players as well.

I will merely reiterate that all businesses need to function within their own individual financial realities.  Cleveland seems to do that based on their won-loss record. The Twins? They are faced with a few challenges this offseason. 

Yeah, I don't like it but I get it.

The problem the Twins have that these other teams don't, is that the Twins 'reality' dramatically changed in 2023. Had the original reality been that they were not only going to stop increasing payroll, but start chopping it, they never would have/should have signed Correa, Buxton and/or Lopez in the first place. Either by poor communication, poor planning, indecision or extreme ineptitude they didn't figure that out. Removing these actual good players will hurt the team.

I have no interest in having them try to 'fix' this as there's little reason to believe the 'poor communication, poor planning, indecision or extreme ineptitude' part has changed. They should meddle as little as possible to meet their financial goals, then let the new leadership figure the rest out.

 

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

 

My first thought upon seeing the title of this article was "Just three?"

How are the Twins going to repair fan/team relations?

 

Put that question in 1,000 point bold font. It’s the only question that matters. And so far? Doesn’t feel like anything has changed. Will they get creative and aggressive winning back fans? Time for Falvey to get to work trying to put more butts in seats at Target Field. 

[tony&rodney]

14 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I don't like it but I get it.

The problem the Twins have that these other teams don't, is that the Twins 'reality' dramatically changed in 2023. Had the original reality been that they were not only going to stop increasing payroll, but start chopping it, they never would have/should have signed Correa, Buxton and/or Lopez in the first place. Either by poor communication, poor planning, indecision or extreme ineptitude they didn't figure that out. Removing these actual good players will hurt the team.

I have no interest in having them try to 'fix' this as there's little reason to believe the 'poor communication, poor planning, indecision or extreme ineptitude' part has changed. They should meddle as little as possible to meet their financial goals, let the new leadership figure the rest out.

 

None of us like it.

[NYCTK]

12 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Put that question in 1,000 point bold font. It’s the only question that matters. And so far? Doesn’t feel like anything has changed. Will they get creative and aggressive winning back fans? Time for Falvey to get to work trying to put more butts in seats at Target Field. 

What's the over/under on attendance this season? 1.85 million? 100,000 less than last season. That's something like 5-10 million loss in revenue... 

...better cut payroll some more. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, NYCTK said:

What's the over/under on attendance this season? 1.85 million? 100,000 less than last season. That's something like 5-10 million loss in revenue... 

...better cut payroll some more. 

I'll be shocked if it is that high.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if it is that high.

And, if they don't try to make the team better, it should be lower. It's not like they are doing ANYTHING to attract the masses. 

[NYCTK]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if it is that high.

The partially (10%?) still covid recovery hindered attendance in 2022 was 1.8. And that's the low mark for Target Field excluding the '21 season for obvious reason. 

Dipping below 1.95 million is true indication of the team losing the fans so we should absolutely expect to see that. 

[Doctor Gast]

Going into the Winter meetings, we are optimistic & hope the FO can put together a workable strategy going into the offseason. Like last offseason, they were going to be creative. I don't think they know what it means to be creative. It seems to me that they think that to be creative means dumping payroll so they can afford another Gallo, DeSclavani or Margot. IMO creativity is some action inspired to create a positive result. This "creativity" is neither active or positive as last year showing shows.

I am depressed with end of the Winter meeting because I hear no positive strategy. Like we are going to work hard to cut fat. We are determined to find a new home for Dobnak, There's a market for Paddack, we are going trade Paddack, Jax will step up & be that top of the rotation we need to replace Paddack. We'll put a trade together to get LHRP high-leverage Nardi. There's a market for Jeffers so we can obtain our future catcher now. Vazquez is more interested in years than money so we'll renegotiate his contract. Our defense will be better because we no longer have Margot & finally Keirsey will man CF with Buck. We are moving Julien off 2B so we no longer have to have Correa & a GG 1B to cover for him. I believe we have a shot at Roki Sasaki & we'll do our darndest to convince him to come here. After a quiet Winter meeting, Falvey didn't say any of this he said "we are going to sit & wait."

Lost veterans, Margot, Farmer, Santana & Kepler, didn't leave any holes. Only hole was created when Kiriloff retired. IMO Julien will be a liability both offensively & defensively now & needs to be traded. So we need to trade for a RH platoon which Romy Gonzales (BOS) could do in any position INF or OF but the focus would be 1B. 

Trading Correa as a main question leaving the Winter meeting? How depressing! That's waving a white flag which has very bad optics. Since there are no clear-cut objectives, even with a great core, I wouldn't doubt that come deadline we won't be in the wildcard race where trading Correa & Lopez would be sad to say inevitable. If this FO can't make simple trades to make this team a contender then why pay all this money for a non contender? I'm sure they also want to be on a contender. Instead of wasting this extra money on FA, when need to invest it into extending our key players.

 

[Craig Arko]

In truth, there is only one question. Who’s buying the team? Anything else is mere distraction.

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lost veterans, Margot, Farmer, Santana & Kepler, didn't leave any holes. Only hole was created when Kiriloff retired. IMO Julien will be a liability both offensively & defensively now & needs to be traded. So we need to trade for a RH platoon which Romy Gonzales (BOS) could do in any position INF or OF but the focus would be 1B.

No it didn't leave any holes, it left a Grand Canyon that most likely cannot be filled

Kirilloff retiring was one handicap removed; Julien and Lewis have holes in their gloves, but Martin is not horrible at 2nd and Lee is not bad at all at 3rd, so if Lewis and Julien go away, those spots are filled for now.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

What's the over/under on attendance this season? 1.85 million? 100,000 less than last season. That's something like 5-10 million loss in revenue... 

...better cut payroll some more. 

Under if I were to guess unless they offer a few promotions for tickets closer to opening day. That’s paid attendance too… the real attendance is worse than that. In the 5-6 games I went to last summer the stadium was ~50% full. The mid September Tuesday night game against the Angels had maybe 10,000 people in the stands. 

[Original_JB]

It's just an *odd* feeling I had (hope it's just those jalapenos I had at lunch), but I have a feeling we will be seeing some sort of finagling type trade where we end up with a discounted Starling Marte to be our RH OF/DH/1B utility knife for this year. Not sure how, just feel like it's going to happen.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I don't like it but I get it.

The problem the Twins have that these other teams don't, is that the Twins 'reality' dramatically changed in 2023. Had the original reality been that they were not only going to stop increasing payroll, but start chopping it, they never would have/should have signed Correa, Buxton and/or Lopez in the first place. Either by poor communication, poor planning, indecision or extreme ineptitude they didn't figure that out. Removing these actual good players will hurt the team.

I have no interest in having them try to 'fix' this as there's little reason to believe the 'poor communication, poor planning, indecision or extreme ineptitude' part has changed. They should meddle as little as possible to meet their financial goals, then let the new leadership figure the rest out.

 

I keep seeing that the Twins should have never signed Correa/Lopez/Buxton.  Yet, when the subject of trading them is brought up, the vast majority of people have a rather harsh reaction that this would be a huge mistake, they would be worse, and many have suggested they would lose more of their fan base.  These two positions conflict, do they not?

My position would be they can’t afford these players if they have to cut important players to meet a given number.  Right now, they could get to an acceptable number by letting Paddack go which is not a big loss.  I would add we don’t know that they have to get in the $130K.  That’s fairly speculative and given the backlash from last year, Falvey has likely learned not to follow Joe Pohlad’s lead.  He is well advised to under promise and over deliver.

Will it eventually lead to a problem.  Well, next year they Paddack coming off if they don’t let him go now as well as Vazquez, Castro and a reduction for Correa.  In total.  That will give them plenty to cover arbitration increases in 2026.   There is also a good chance that Rodriquez, Keaschall, Jenkins and a couple pitching prospects will take roles that allow the Twins to trade players like Julien / Larnach or perhaps even Lopez.  It’s also quite possible they develop more TV revenue as the new model matures and if the team is good enough to keep together that would suggest they are winning which would bring more revenue.  If the whole thing is a wreck … burn it down but it would seem they there is a good chance they can keep their core together with the burden of the salaries of Correa/Lopez, and Buxton.  Is there a problem I am not considering?
 

[Mike Sixel]

How about Royce learn to play the OF and he's the platoon partner? He can play third against RHP. Miranda has third against lefties and first against RHP. Not that that will happen....

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

It's just an *odd* feeling I had (hope it's just those jalapenos I had at lunch), but I have a feeling we will be seeing some sort of finagling type trade where we end up with a discounted Starling Marte to be our RH OF/DH/1B utility knife for this year. Not sure how, just feel like it's going to happen.

That would be on brand. It will probably take two teams like the Rays-Dodgers trip Margot took to the Twins and the Giants-Mariners trip taken by DeSclafani.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I keep seeing that the Twins should have never signed Correa/Lopez/Buxton. 

Who said they shouldn't have signed Lopez? That's a terrible take. That extension looks terrific right now.

[Major League Ready]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Who said they shouldn't have signed Lopez? That's a terrible take. That extension looks terrific right now.

If you were to look at the post I quoted, it said "they never would have/should have signed Correa, Buxton and/or Lopez in the first place."  This is certainly not the only time the collective signing of these three players was said to be a mistake.  Some recent signings have made the Lopez signing look good but there have been several posts suggesting these 3 highest paid players should not have been signed if the payroll was going to be under $150M.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

No it didn't leave any holes, it left a Grand Canyon that most likely cannot be filled

Kirilloff retiring was one handicap removed; Julien and Lewis have holes in their gloves, but Martin is not horrible at 2nd and Lee is not bad at all at 3rd, so if Lewis and Julien go away, those spots are filled for now.

Thank you RpR for your response & letting me know what you disagree with, At 1B & RF what is important is offense. With Wallner & Miranda, they provide more offense than we had last season. I'd like more depth there that's why I suggested to easily get Romy Gonzales (BOS) who has a very solid glove everywhere he plays & mashes LHPs. I like Kepler's defense & presence but his offense left a lot to be desired. Martin played terrific 2B in MiLB, he can do that on the MLB level, especially if he's left there.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thank you RpR for your response & letting me know what you disagree with, At 1B & RF what is important is offense. With Wallner & Miranda, they provide more offense than we had last season. I'd like more depth there that's why I suggested to easily get Romy Gonzales (BOS) who has a very solid glove everywhere he plays & mashes LHPs. I like Kepler's defense & presence but his offense left a lot to be desired.

Kepler also wasn't healthy the last two years, and isn't getting better at running or hitting. He isn't listed in any top 50 free agent list, not one. 

[Doctor Gast]

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Who said they shouldn't have signed Lopez? That's a terrible take. That extension looks terrific right now.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

How about Royce learn to play the OF and he's the platoon partner? He can play third against RHP. Miranda has third against lefties and first against RHP. Not that that will happen....

Royce does not have the glove, or Arm , for the infield so putting him in the outfield would be silly at best.

Too many, the majority probably, MINN. rookies have come out of the minors, had a pretty good, to very good, first year or part of a first year, and then slowly, or quickly shown they are not very good with MLB pitching, or fielding.

Royce is looking like one of them.

[Doctor Gast]

57 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Who said they shouldn't have signed Lopez? That's a terrible take. That extension looks terrific right now.

IMO all 3 were the right move. W/o them we wouldn't have broken that long winless postseason curse. Isn't that worth something? They provided a valuable part of a core that should still be winning. Which is another story. It's not their fault that Falvey can't put together a winning team around them through essential trades. Right now they'd be gone & we'd have nothing if we hadn't signed them. Even though we can't win unfortunately, we still have valuable trade chips come  deadline. It's so frustrating to see such a great core with an open window & an abundant farm that we can easily pull off minor trades to make this team a postseason winner, to abandon all of this.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO all 3 were the right move. W/o them we wouldn't have broken that long winless postseason curse. Isn't that worth something? They provided a valuable part of a core that should still be winning. Which is another story. It's not their fault that Falvey can't put together a winning team around them through essential trades. Right now they'd be gone & we'd have nothing if we hadn't signed them. Even though we can't win unfortunately, we still have valuable trade chips come  deadline. It's so frustrating to see such a great core with an open window & an abundant farm that we can easily pull off minor trades to make this team a postseason winner, to abandon all of this.

Minor trades, to get ten to fifteen more wins? This team must be pretty good if it only needs a couple tweaks. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I keep seeing that the Twins should have never signed Correa/Lopez/Buxton.  Yet, when the subject of trading them is brought up, the vast majority of people have a rather harsh reaction that this would be a huge mistake, they would be worse, and many have suggested they would lose more of their fan base.  These two positions conflict, do they not?

My position would be they can’t afford these players if they have to cut important players to meet a given number.  Right now, they could get to an acceptable number by letting Paddack go which is not a big loss.  I would add we don’t know that they have to get in the $130K.  That’s fairly speculative and given the backlash from last year, Falvey has likely learned not to follow Joe Pohlad’s lead.  He is well advised to under promise and over deliver.

Will it eventually lead to a problem.  Well, next year they Paddack coming off if they don’t let him go now as well as Vazquez, Castro and a reduction for Correa.  In total.  That will give them plenty to cover arbitration increases in 2026.   There is also a good chance that Rodriquez, Keaschall, Jenkins and a couple pitching prospects will take roles that allow the Twins to trade players like Julien / Larnach or perhaps even Lopez.  It’s also quite possible they develop more TV revenue as the new model matures and if the team is good enough to keep together that would suggest they are winning which would bring more revenue.  If the whole thing is a wreck … burn it down but it would seem they there is a good chance they can keep their core together with the burden of the salaries of Correa/Lopez, and Buxton.  Is there a problem I am not considering?
 

Re: the part I bolded -- I agree. I posted a variation on this elsewhere and I'll keep saying it, a little differently this time. In an organization the size of an MLB team, "budgets" are better described as "spending plans." Organizations make adjustments all the time. For us on TD to make declarative statements that they have to get under x dollars is working with incomplete data. Unless I'm misremembering something, last year's decrease wasn't created by jettisoning players -- it was created by letting free agents walk. The only salary of substance that they traded was Polanco's, and they largely respent that immediately.

Whether or not we agree (and I'm in the agree camp), they think they are close enough to contending that they aren't going to trade the big three. The alternatives are such that I don't see them trading Vazquez. Why eat salary and pay $5M for someone else? I could perhaps see them trading Paddack, but they have also shown a reluctance to go into a season with two rookies in the rotation. And given the price of pitching, I think they'll take the approach that when it comes to veterans, $7.5M on Paddack is as good of a risk as $4M on another Bundy. With the presence of a Lee and Martin, I think Castro is the closest thing to redundancy, and  his $6.4M could be redeployed to a RH bat of some sort to play 1B or be an extra OF. To me, he seems the most likely to go. 

As to 2026, let's quantify it. Pay cut for Correa: $5M. FA losses: Vazquez ($10M), Paddack ($7.5M) and Castro ($6.4M). That quartet of changes is $28.9M. Topa's club option is for $2M -- either he's dropped at that price, or he's worth keeping. Tonkin will be 36 as he enters his S3 season and Stewart 34 entering his S2, so they are very possibly non-tenders. Again, if they are worth tendering, it's because they pitched well. So very likely $30M or more freed up. If that's not enough to cover increases for Ober, Ryan, Jax, Duran, Alcala, Sands, Jeffers, Lewis, Miranda and Larnach, that's a good problem to have.