Can The Twins Ship The Sheriff to Sacramento?

[Cody Pirkl]

As the Twins navigate a difficult payroll situation, shedding salary remains an unfortunate offseason priority. Could the Sacramento Athletics become a surprising option for the Twins to pass off some salary?

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Athletics are reportedly in a polar opposite position to the Twins this offseason. They risk a player union complaint if they don’t add enough payroll. While they could spend this money on free agents (as they recently did with Luis Severino), they also become a target for teams like the Twins to talk to on the trade market. Chris Paddack, in particular, seems like a name that could be involved in a win-win deal.

For the Twins, it would be dealing from the strength of their roster. They’re in a good spot with the rotation, between Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, younger arms such as David Festa and Zebby Matthews, and the top prospects waiting in St. Paul. After an up-and-down season, it’s unlikely Paddack will claim a rotation spot on Opening Day. Dealing him in the offseason would save $7.5 million and allow Paddack to remain a starter, which he certainly wants.

From the A’s perspective, Paddack is the exact kind of addition they should be trying to make. Their MLB club has plenty of room in their rotation, and their farm system lacks any immediate impact starting pitching. While Paddack has his question marks regarding injury, one could argue that he still carries a fair bit of upside another year removed from Tommy John surgery.

While the A’s may not care about Paddack winning them games every fifth day, he becomes a valuable potential trade chip for them once again at the deadline if he’s able to stay on the field. The Twins likely won’t ask for much in return for taking Paddack’s money off their books, and the A’s could quickly recoup whatever they gave up (and then some) if they flip Paddack to another contender amid a strong season. If Paddack doesn’t pan out, they’ve at least added $7.5 million to their payroll to help shield themselves from the ire of the players' union.

In an ideal world, the Twins let Paddack’s contract play out, given the upside argument one could make. His 2025 salary will likely prove to be a bargain by the time the free-agent market plays out, but the Twins are in a spot where potentially getting a deal doesn’t matter, because the front office doesn’t have the money to make needed upgrades elsewhere.

Paddack wouldn’t bring the same trade return as somebody like Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober, but trading him would leave less of a hole in the roster while shedding more money. It also stands to reason that Paddack’s trade return, while likely to be uninspiring, would bring more than that of a trade of someone like Christian Vázquez who may even require prospects on the back end to convince another team to pay that money.

The list of teams willing to take on money this winter will likely be short, with several clubs similarly dealing with changes in broadcast revenues. The A’s have emerged as a prime target to dump some money, and the Twins should check in on doing so. Do you agree?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

It makes all of the sense on paper

[tony&rodney]

The A's are going to get blacked out of revenue sharing unless they reach a mark in payroll. Expect to see some moves. Paddack should help the A's. If the payroll wasn't a situation for Minnesota, Paddack would be great in the bullpen. Sure, talk with the A's.

[bean5302]

I could see the Athletics being on board with this hard core. They had to overpay hard for Luis Severino because of the AAA converted venue they'll be playing in. I don't think the Twins can expect any real return for Paddack, but with Oakland in a position where they aren't a viable destination for free agents, they might overpay with more than just a salary dump or a PTBNL.

FWIW, they don't care at all about a player grievance. Wouldn't be the first time, haha.

[Whitey333]

Great idea.  He's not really need here anyway

[sweetmusicviola16]

With SP's getting 25-30 mil in FA that it should be very doable to move Paddack and his 7.5mil. I get Paddack isn't Fried or Evoldi. But trading for Paddack is a very low risk move for most any club. He might even payoff big time, if not it's just 7.5 in the megabucks world of baseball.

 

With that said I can see why this calls for some patience on the part of management

[Brandon27]

Twins won't doing anything until after winter meetings 

[gman]

I think Paddack will have to prove next spring that he is healthy before he can be moved.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Brandon27 said:

Twins won't doing anything until after winter meetings 

Did the Twins group already go home? Uninterested or just shunned by other teams? Was there a statement issued?

[HerbieFan]

So the REAL question seems to be.....how do we get the MLBPA to threaten a grievance against the Twins?!?! :)

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

So the REAL question seems to be.....how do we get the MLBPA to threaten a grievance against the Twins?!?! :)

Not have a top 20 payroll in MLB. Don't sign Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Pablo Lopez, Christian Vazquez.

For all the "cheap Pohlads" posts and griping, the Twins have consistently run the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central for years and years.

[MoyBoy74]

Twins send Dodgers

Jhoan Duran
Christian Vazquez
Willi Castro
Eduardo Julien

For

Hunter Feduccia
Andy Pages
Gavin Lux

Who says no to this trade proposal?

Edited December 11, 2024 by MoyBoy74
Light

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

For all the "cheap Pohlads" posts and griping, the Twins have consistently run the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central for years and years.

Not exactly a strong defense....

[Doctor Gast]

Every team is looking to upgrade their rotation, except MIA or CWS. There was a lot of hype with Paddack last offseason. 150 innings, Gray's inherited replacement. That was too incredible. His expectations & management should have been curbed. Paddack is still a promising SP with another year removed from TJ, he'd be an asset on any ML team including MN. His $7.5M isn't expensive but is still too rich for the Twins & he can easily be replaced by Jax. We can then go out & easily trade for high-leverage LHRP Nardi (MIA). We saved $7.5M & gained a much-needed high-leverage LHRP.

MLB teams are looking to fill out their rotation & BP. don't wait around, be proactive & shop Paddack & make a reasonable offer for Nardi while we can! We don't need another Richards, Margot or DeSclavani.

[In My La Z boy]

I'll take the counter-point. I think its a mistake to trade starting pitching, and 2025 is the payoff year for the prior Paddock decisions. He could become a real bargain at $7.5M this year. Or at least that was Falvey's bet a couple years ago. Let's be consistent and stick with him. We never have enough starting pitching by August. Why would we think we will this year? 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I'll take the counter-point. I think its a mistake to trade starting pitching, and 2025 is the payoff year for the prior Paddock decisions. He could become a real bargain at $7.5M this year. Or at least that was Falvey's bet a couple years ago. Let's be consistent and stick with him. We never have enough starting pitching by August. Why would we think we will this year? 

What makes you think Paddack will be healthy in August?

[In My La Z boy]

Just now, DJL44 said:

What makes you think Paddack will be healthy in August?

Nothing

[In My La Z boy]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

What makes you think Paddack will be healthy in August?

It's all a gamble friend. At $7.5M and now another year beyond TJ surgery, he's a savvy vet and still throws 98mph - and be consistent dammit. Falvey made this deal and 2025 is the payoff, or not.

[kenneth frank]

Away with common sense! If it saves the Pohlads a dime I'm all in

[tony&rodney]

23 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I'll take the counter-point. I think its a mistake to trade starting pitching, and 2025 is the payoff year for the prior Paddock decisions. He could become a real bargain at $7.5M this year. Or at least that was Falvey's bet a couple years ago. Let's be consistent and stick with him. We never have enough starting pitching by August. Why would we think we will this year? 

The Twins need to reduce their payroll or such is the general talk and understanding. If the Twins can live with their roughly $140 million current roster, there isn't any reason to move Paddack quickly. Yes, it is good to have pitching. The other argument is that Falvey's weird infatuation with Paddack may mean the Twins slot him as a starting pitcher above Woods Richardson and Festa. Paddack fits as depth behind Matthews and should be a bullpen arm if kept on the team. There is a strong chance he cost the team if used above either of DF or SWR. Paddack is out of options and takes a roster spot if he is retained. The real question for the Twins is whether Paddack is one of the best 13 pitchers in their system. 

There are a host of teams that are struggling to fill out their pitching staffs and thus it shouldn't be difficult to move Paddack in a deal. The return is unlikely to be anything useful for the coming year but a flyer on a prospect in the 15-30s range from a team is possible. If the budget is real, Paddack has to go. It is really pretty simple. 

[old nurse]

If you are going to be hopeful for a trade with the A’s one needs to think bigger. The A’s seem to like lottery tickets in trades. Any four Fort Meyers players from the ones that cost less than a million to sign, Vazquez and Paddack for Shea Multiple problems solved. 

[In My La Z boy]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins need to reduce their payroll or such is the general talk and understanding. If the Twins can live with their roughly $140 million current roster, there isn't any reason to move Paddack quickly. Yes, it is good to have pitching. The other argument is that Falvey's weird infatuation with Paddack may mean the Twins slot him as a starting pitcher above Woods Richardson and Festa. Paddack fits as depth behind Matthews and should be a bullpen arm if kept on the team. There is a strong chance he cost the team if used above either of DF or SWR. Paddack is out of options and takes a roster spot if he is retained. The real question for the Twins is whether Paddack is one of the best 13 pitchers in their system. 

There are a host of teams that are struggling to fill out their pitching staffs and thus it shouldn't be difficult to move Paddack in a deal. The return is unlikely to be anything useful for the coming year but a flyer on a prospect in the 15-30s range from a team is possible. If the budget is real, Paddack has to go. It is really pretty simple. 

I'd gamble on keeping him. I'm betting he throws well. It's all a bet and I get frustrated with Falvey when he takes a bet, and then changes course before realizing the benefit of the bet he took. Either don't take the bet, or take it and ride it out. Betting on Paddock to earn his $7.5M is good odds in my opinion.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I'd gamble on keeping him. I'm betting he throws well. It's all a bet and I get frustrated with Falvey when he takes a bet, and then changes course before realizing the benefit of the bet he took. Either don't take the bet, or take it and ride it out. Betting on Paddock to earn his $7.5M is good odds in my opinion.

Like I said, if money is not an issue for the Twins Paddack might be ok in the bullpen. Keeping a player because you bet on them is losing baseball. The Twins bet on Randy Dobnak too. It is scary to think that if Dobnak had a $7.5 miilion contract he might also be discussed for the starting rotation.

 

[LambchoP]

It'd be great if the A's would take Paddack and Vasquez off our hands. That would free up 17 million and open up all kinds of possibilities. I'd use the money to sign Walker or Alonso to be our first baseman. Or, they trade with TB to get their 1b Diaz. Maybe trade for Luzardo or go after a RH outfielder. Either way, I'm not expecting anything from the Twins except maybe a dump of Paddack and minor league signings. Very sad....

[Fire Dan Gladden]

With the skyrocketing price of SP, it makes financial sense to keep Paddack on the roster as a possible SP4/5 or heater out of the BP.  He would essentially be pitching on a make good contract, and if he starts the season well the Twins could look at an extension on a player they know (which is very big in Minnesota territory).

On the other hand...

With the skyrocketing price of SP, moving Paddack makes sense.  The Twins have a relatively inexpensive veteran they could move to a team needing a SP3/4/5 and probably get a decent return.  For a team looking to keep costs down, this makes financial sense, especially if they feel Festa or Matthews is ready.

Seeing both sides of the argument, I would be fine with either decision.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Not exactly a strong defense....

Correct. It was an iron-clad, insurmountable defense to what was essentially a complaint about the Pohlad's running a crazy low payroll.

While I canceled my season tickets with no intent to renew, and I've been highly critical of the Pohlad's 180* shift in how they planned to run the team, I'm not delusional in regard to the team's spending. The Twins have ranked from #16-20 in MLB since like 2017. They haven't been in the bottom 5 for over 20 years.

Fans griping about grievances should change the teams they follow to Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Miami. Those are teams who have payrolls literally $100MM LOWER than the Twins in recent years.

[In My La Z boy]

45 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Like I said, if money is not an issue for the Twins Paddack might be ok in the bullpen. Keeping a player because you bet on them is losing baseball. The Twins bet on Randy Dobnak too. It is scary to think that if Dobnak had a $7.5 miilion contract he might also be discussed for the starting rotation.

 

Team building requires a consistent approach. Everything is a bet. Dobnak was a bad bet. Perhaps Paddock was also a bad bet? Dumping him now cements the bad bet. It's like folding rather than doubling down. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

What makes you think Paddack will be healthy in August?

He did pitch that 1 game in August back in 2021! He's due! Also, yes, that's the last time and only time he's pitched in August since 2020.

[Otaknam]

If the Twins expect to compete on the field they should keep Paddock and let him try to win a rotation spot. But because money is more important to ownership than a winning team, Paddock is likely gone on a salary dump. Vasquez is a bigger issue, given his ludicrous $10 million contract. They’ll have to be creative to find a team to take on that contract and his .220 average with little power, probably paying a portion of the salary. Nice move, front office! 

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

It's all a gamble friend. At $7.5M and now another year beyond TJ surgery, he's a savvy vet and still throws 98mph - and be consistent dammit. Falvey made this deal and 2025 is the payoff, or not.

While I am in the camp that says trade him; I think your points are valid that we could get 4th/5th starter value if he stays; in which case, 7.5MM is worth it.  Hopefully, the Twins have a good feel for this.