The Time for the Twins to Convert Griffin Jax Into a Starting Pitcher is Now

[Cody Schoenmann]

The salary-strapped Twins won't be able to acquire a frontline starter via free agency or trade this offseason. Yet, Griffin Jax could blossom into one if given the opportunity.

This past Friday, the New York Mets signed former New York Yankees closer Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million contract. Although Holmes's move from the Bronx to Flushing will be the headline of this signing, a more captivating and consequential byline is hidden under the surface: The once-All-Star closer will convert into a starter. Holmes converting into a starter (which he also was in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system) is a surprise, considering he is 31 years old and has found significant success as a reliever. However, his decision to return to the rotation is part of a broader trend expanding through MLB.

In the past handful of seasons, the following once-high-leverage relievers were successfully converted into starting pitchers:

• Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays
• Michael King, New York Yankees
• Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres
• Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants
• Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

Littell and King transitioned from reliever to starter with the teams where they were already established high-leverage relievers. On the other hand, Lugo, Hicks, and López didn't convert into starters until signing higher average annual value (AAV) contracts with new organizations in the offseason. Holmes joins the latter, and while this transition is much easier for pitchers to make with new organizations, the Twins find themselves in a unique spot and could follow the Rays and Yankees footsteps.

In the past, many who follow the Twins have speculated (and even written) that the team should consider converting star closer Jhoan Durán into a starting pitcher, which he was in the Arizona Diamondbacks and Twins minor league systems. After enduring a disappointing 2024 campaign, the buzz surrounding Durán's potential conversion has mostly dimmed. That said, speculation has arisen with a different Twins late-inning reliever.

In an interview with MLB Network Radio's Mike Ferrin earlier this offseason, Twins bench coach Jayce Tingler noted that the team is "leaving open the possibility" that Griffin Jax could move into the starting rotation. At an initial glance, this idea comes off as ludicrous. Jax has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past three seasons, posting a 145 ERA+ over 208 2/3 innings pitched. He has also been a cog in the team's shaky bullpen structure, operating a steady force who could be entrusted when other late-inning arms like Durán, Jorge Alcalá, Caleb Thielbar, and Brock Stewart struggled or missed time due to injury.

The obvious concern is that Jax rejoining the rotation could backfire, leading to a downward spiral that could negatively impact the team in various fashions. He could again struggle as a starting pitcher, leaving a hole in the rotation and bullpen that wouldn't arise if Jax stayed a reliever. If he proved similarly ineffective, the organization would be forced to convert him back into a reliever midseason, increasing the threat of injury and newfound ineffectiveness in a role he has dominated for the better part of three seasons. To worry about an unideal outcome is reasonable, especially considering the 30-year-old's struggles as a starter in the past.

That said, team decision-makers are operating under unique circumstances and could deem a mid-career shift for Jax worthwhile for the following reasons:

Jax is a significantly better pitcher than he was in 2021

Teams with postseason aspirations need reliable, above-average relief arms like Jax to survive strenuous 162-game seasons. That said, teams with postseason aspirations also need starting pitchers who can be trusted to start playoff games, and Jax has the potential to become that. In his sole season as a starter with the dreadful 2021 Twins, Jax generated a 6.37 ERA, 6.47 FIP, and 67 ERA+ over 14 starts and 82 innings pitched. Jax was ineffective as a starter, leading to the organization quickly turning him into a reliever in 2022. The United States Air Force Academy product held a multi-inning stretch reliever role with the team before blossoming into the elite late-inning stud we recognize today in June of that season.

Since his last start in 2021, Jax has drastically improved his four-pitch mix, illustrated by a substantial velocity increase in his sweeper (5.5 MPH increase since 2021) and four-seam fastball (4.5 MPH increase since 2021). Jax's sweeper and fastball are elite and should serve as an effective one-two punch as a starter, even though a moderate velocity decrease should be expected as he will be required to pace himself through more innings pitched. His secondary pitches (changeup, sinker, and curve) have also blossomed into sustainably effective change-of-pace options, illustrating he possesses the auxiliary pitches necessary to permit the pitch sequencing flexibility necessary to sustain himself as he faces lineups two or three times. With the help of Driveline and the Twins pitching development staff, Jax has become an elite rubber-armed whose pitch mix is one of baseball's best and most eclectic. Given the state of the franchise, a move to the rotation could benefit both parties.

Ownership-induced salary restrictions increase the likelihood of Jax converting back into a starter.

At first glance, the Twins rotation has three starting pitchers one would feel comfortable entering a 162-game season with: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. These three above-average arms are rightfully ingrained in the team's five-pitcher to begin the 2025 season. That said, confidence quickly begins to waver. Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews showcased the skills necessary to become long-term rotation pieces. Still, with concerns over the efficacy of their primary and secondary pitches and how they could sustain themselves over an entire season, there is merit for skepticism surrounding whether they should be a part of the five-pitcher rotation out of spring training. Veteran Chris Paddack is also a strong candidate to hold a rotation spot to begin the season. Still, the front office would be wise to unload his $7.5 million contract to create payroll flexibility and address more pressing areas of need.

Even if the front office can trade Paddack's contract, there is no viable path for them to acquire a frontline starting pitcher this offseason. The team already has cheap, adequate depth, meaning signing a veteran arm like Cal Quantrill or Spencer Turnbull to a one-year deal in the $4-5 million range would be a blatant misuse of limited resources. Also, if the team wanted to sign a pitcher of this archetype, they ought to keep Paddack. Nevertheless, with no realistic path to acquiring an impact arm, the Twins should look inward with Jax.

If Jax were to join the rotation, the club would need to find an adequate replacement in the bullpen. As things stand, the Twins 'pen will be constructed with the following eight arms:

• Jhoan Durán, RHP
• Griffin Jax, RHP
• Brock Stewart, RHP
• Jorge Alcalá, RHP
• Cole Sands, RHP
• Ronny Henriquez, RHP
• Michael Tonkin, RHP
• Kody Funderburk, LHP

Louie Varland is on the outside looking in and is presently on path to begin the season at Triple-A. Yet, if Jax were to join the rotation, Varland could take his bullpen spot. Justin Topa (who still has a minor league option) could also function as a Jax replacement. Nevertheless, Minnesota would need to replace Jax in the aggregate to begin the season. The organization has viable depth, making that a plausible contingency plan. If the Twins were to do this, the hope would be a high-potential right-handed reliever like Stewart, Alcalá, Sands, Varland, or Topa could produce at a Jax-like rate, making his potential departure more palatable.

Given ownership-induced salary restrictions, the Twins don't have a viable path to acquiring a frontline starting pitcher this offseason. Even though he struggled as a starting pitcher three seasons ago, Jax has demonstrated significant growth, illustrating that he could blossom into a Ryan or Ober-adjacent starting pitcher. Through possessing adequate right-handed bullpen depth, the organization is well-equipped to take on his departure from the bullpen. As Twins Territory nears a fresh start, it would be uplifting to say, "Happy New Year, Lieutenant Jax!" and look at him with a smile, knowing he got another chance to be a starter.

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[tony&rodney]

Jax may make a relatively seamless transition from reliever to starter if everything goes perfectly, but where does this place David Festa? Is there a general belief that Festa is not ready for a #4/5 starting slot? Simeon Woods Richardson should have earned a starting role for next year with his performance in 2024. Are there disagreements with SWR as a inked in starting pitcher? Or, is there anticipation that the Twins would trade a starting pitcher? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I agree 100%. Nice article. 

[Jocko87]

Wut.

[bean5302]

I'm looking forward to the 2x a week articles about this all the way into Spring Training when we'll find out what the Twins are actually going to do.

The reference to Littell should be removed. He was a lower leverage middle innings eater in Tampa. Also, his 2.3 fWAR is hardly spectacular. He was largely a mid rotation guy last year. Going from elite reliever to mid rotation isn't a huge upgrade.

How is the conversion measured as a success or failure? Griffin Jax produced 2.6 fWAR last year. Similar to a typical Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober season. Jax needs to be the front end starter to really pay dividends here, and btw, his pay rate will skyrocket as a rotation arm compared to a typical reliever.

Mentioning only success stories certainly furthers your cause, but it makes your opinion easier to attack. No mention of guys like Kopech who have elite stuff who couldn't make it as starters or less recently, Daniel Bard. Generally speaking, teams only draft starting pitchers. Relief pitchers are starters who couldn't make it as starters. That's the biggest reason why successful relievers aren't pushed back into rotations. Also, Louie Varland replacing Griffin Jax? Varland's track record as a reliever is sus.

There have to be at least 5 articles about this already, but a good article would have both point and counterpoint without the low-hanging fruit for critics.

[gman]

I am not sure why anyone would push to make Jax a starter. If the team had 8 relievers as good as or better than Jax I could see it. That hardly is the position the Twins find themselves in. Why take last years best reliever out of the pen and risk blowing that many more innings late?

[CRF]

I respectfully disagree. 

[Karbo]

Terrible idea. We have an established ace type starter in Lopez. Ober took major steps forward last season, Ryan is a quality 3 spot pitcher and SWR deserves a regular spot in the rotation after last season. 1 spot open for Paddack (I believe he gets traded) and the 2 kids. I would think probably Festa but that would be decided in ST. Jax is certainly top 5 in the league as a reliever. Just leave him there. Don't mess with something that really should be left alone!

[DJL44]

I like the idea, even if it is just to pump-and-dump. Make him a starter and if he succeeds he's a great trade chip with two seasons of team control after this season. If he fails, he'll be fine back in the bullpen.

[chpettit19]

How good do you think he can be? Is he your #1 or your #4? If you think he can slot in at the top of your rotation and be a Crochet, Lugo, Lopez, or King then I think you do it without thinking twice. If he's slotting in behind Lopez, Ryan, and Ober and you're expecting him to be Littell or Hicks then I think you just leave him where he is. An ace is more valuable than a reliever. But a mid- or back-end rotation arm isn't more valuable than an elite reliever so you don't take the risk. 

So, do you think he can be the same pitcher but over 140ish innings instead of 70ish? Then give it a shot and see what he can do. But if you think he's going to be your 4th best starter then just keep him as a shutdown guy at the end of games and trust in SWR, Festa, et al to fill in those 4th and 5th spots.

[TopGunn#22]

I have been intrigued by this idea since it was first floated.  There are positives as well as negatives.  If Jax is slotted in as the #4 SP in the Twins rotation, but pitches like a #2 SP then it's a WIN.  If Jax pitches like an equivalent #4 or #5 SP to Festa, SWR or Matthews than it's a LOSS.  Because the Twins would be forfeiting the A+ pitcher Jax is in high leverage, late game appearances.  

But the idea that his value accelerates if he makes a successful transition to the rotation is valid.  That helps the Twins rotation and as DJL44 pointed out, if he's really good, the Twins can determine which of Jax, Ryan, Ober or Lopez gets spun off in a blockbuster trade. 

We are currently marooned in "Pohladville" where it's an absolute certainty all of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Jax will not be Minnesota Twins in 2027.  If the Pohlad Family is still around, there is no way they're paying for each one of those 4 pitchers in addition to a host of other position players as well as Duran.  If Jax has more value after 2025 & 2026 that is a good thing.

A new ownership group "might" have a different philosophy.  But we all currently live in "Pohladville" so there's no point in speculating.  Another thing to consider is that it's MUCH EASIER to add a RP than it is a SP.  For example:  Kirby Yates just led the A.L. in Saves last year and had a great year for Texas.  He will be 38 for the 2025 season.  Spotrac estimates his Free agent 2025 salary to be 1-year and $6 million.  

My Rochester, Minnesota public school math tells me that $6 million is LESS than $13 million.  And a LOT less than the $20+ million Luis Severino just got.  With the contracts guys like Severino and Boyd got (not to mention Blake Snell) the escalating costs of SP's each year in MLB is just mind boggling.  

And if starting doesn't work out for Jax he can always be moved back into the BP.  If Jax was inserted into the rotation, and the Twins were able to trade contracts like Paddack, Vasquez and Castro, they would have the room to bring in someone like Yates.  Now, it doesn't have to BE Yates, but if you look at his salary as a match to Castro's and you coupled these moves with a signing of Jurikson Profar to play LF and hit at the top of the order, I would say a lineup with Profar in LF and Yates holding down the back end with Duran and a rotation that would go Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax and Festa, would be something I could feel pretty good about going into 2025.  

I think there is some steam to Jax heading to the rotation.  I think the positives outweigh the negatives.  Jax has really made himself into a very good pitcher.  His work ethic is VERY GOOD.  I'd be willing to bet on him working out pretty nicely in the rotation.  

[1985Fan]

The problem with trying Jax in the rotation is that if it doesn’t work it probably derails the season, or a significant part of it. Moving proven late inning reliever disrupts the BP order potentially costing late inning leads and losses. Until Duran shows that he can lock down leads late, I don’t see a Jax replacement in the BP.  Let’s see if Duran is back to his previous form, if Sands or Alcala can step up, and if Topa can be effective. 
I don’t know why the FO would think there is a need for another starter anyways. SWR proved he was effective and Festa deserves to start the season as #5 SP. Unless they want to start Paddack again and keep Festa at AAA. 
No need to take unnecessary risk with Jax and the BP unless there is a trade, injuries, or ineffectiveness that forces a move like this. 

[tony&rodney]

52 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I have been intrigued by this idea since it was first floated.  There are positives as well as negatives.  If Jax is slotted in as the #4 SP in the Twins rotation, but pitches like a #2 SP then it's a WIN.  If Jax pitches like an equivalent #4 or #5 SP to Festa, SWR or Matthews than it's a LOSS.  Because the Twins would be forfeiting the A+ pitcher Jax is in high leverage, late game appearances.  

But the idea that his value accelerates if he makes a successful transition to the rotation is valid.  That helps the Twins rotation and as DJL44 pointed out, if he's really good, the Twins can determine which of Jax, Ryan, Ober or Lopez gets spun off in a blockbuster trade. 

We are currently marooned in "Pohladville" where it's an absolute certainty all of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Jax will not be Minnesota Twins in 2027.  If the Pohlad Family is still around, there is no way they're paying for each one of those 4 pitchers in addition to a host of other position players as well as Duran.  If Jax has more value after 2025 & 2026 that is a good thing.

A new ownership group "might" have a different philosophy.  But we all currently live in "Pohladville" so there's no point in speculating.  Another thing to consider is that it's MUCH EASIER to add a RP than it is a SP.  For example:  Kirby Yates just led the A.L. in Saves last year and had a great year for Texas.  He will be 38 for the 2025 season.  Spotrac estimates his Free agent 2025 salary to be 1-year and $6 million.  

My Rochester, Minnesota public school math tells me that $6 million is LESS than $13 million.  And a LOT less than the $20+ million Luis Severino just got.  With the contracts guys like Severino and Boyd got (not to mention Blake Snell) the escalating costs of SP's each year in MLB is just mind boggling.  

And if starting doesn't work out for Jax he can always be moved back into the BP.  If Jax was inserted into the rotation, and the Twins were able to trade contracts like Paddack, Vasquez and Castro, they would have the room to bring in someone like Yates.  Now, it doesn't have to BE Yates, but if you look at his salary as a match to Castro's and you coupled these moves with a signing of Jurikson Profar to play LF and hit at the top of the order, I would say a lineup with Profar in LF and Yates holding down the back end with Duran and a rotation that would go Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax and Festa, would be something I could feel pretty good about going into 2025.  

I think there is some steam to Jax heading to the rotation.  I think the positives outweigh the negatives.  Jax has really made himself into a very good pitcher.  His work ethic is VERY GOOD.  I'd be willing to bet on him working out pretty nicely in the rotation.  

Like Yates and Profar. We need to set the ceiling at $130M. The twins start at $137M. Adding $19M with Yates and Profar is $156M. Subtracting CV, WC, and CP is only $23.7M. We need to get down further. Plus Profar will be more and judging from relief pitcher prices, Yates will cost more. Additionally, Vazquez is unlikely to be traded if nobody takes his salary which is unlikely. 

It is a little like checkers with the jumps needed. I have never been a fan of the Pohlads but the Twins still carry the highest payroll in their division. The only way forward is via trades or roll it all back. The thumbs down and repeated comments tell me that TD wants to roll it back. So it goes. I'm still hopeful.

[Doctor Gast]

I respect every opinion. But I tend to go with giving Jax a shot. We need another veteran SP & Jax could be an upper-rotation arm. An upper-rotation arm in the 4 hole is pretty impressive. IMO Varland will step up in the BP. But if Jax only turns out to be an OK SP the economics will figure itself out either way. If he & Varland works out, all we need is a better LHRP. If it's better for him to stay in the BP then I have no problem with that because IMO he'll have no problem converting back to the pen & then we'll have to trade for a mid-rotation inning eater. As they say "Nothing ventured nothing gained".

[Riverbrian]

I don't care much for placing players in boxes. 

Can you hang a zero and how many can you hang. 71 Innings last year with an 0.87 WHIP! Why wouldn't we want more innings from someone who does that?  

You should always strive to get more AB's from your best hitters and you always strive to get more innings from your best pitchers. 

I will always be against purposely limiting talent for the purpose of keeping them in a box. 

Go for it

[Hrbeks Divot]

My preference is to leave Jax as an elite reliever. I just don’t think we can afford the risk this offseason that he might not make it as a starter. I see the Twins as a playoff team but only if everything goes right. A hole in the bullpen AND the rotation with a Jax failed conversion is a big miss. The other option I MIGHT consider is checking his market value to see if anyone is willing to overpay to make him a starter. At that point you’re likely planing for 2026 and beyond.

[gmwannabe]

I like the idea of Jax converting to a starter because if he succeeds and the Twins can trade Paddock they can keep SWR, Matthews, Festa, and Raya rotating the 5th starter role via the bus from St. Paul and add an extra day off between starts here and there for Jax. Starting pitching is too expensive for a team on a budget!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How good do you think he can be? Is he your #1 or your #4? If you think he can slot in at the top of your rotation and be a Crochet, Lugo, Lopez, or King then I think you do it without thinking twice. If he's slotting in behind Lopez, Ryan, and Ober and you're expecting him to be Littell or Hicks then I think you just leave him where he is. An ace is more valuable than a reliever. But a mid- or back-end rotation arm isn't more valuable than an elite reliever so you don't take the risk. 

So, do you think he can be the same pitcher but over 140ish innings instead of 70ish? Then give it a shot and see what he can do. But if you think he's going to be your 4th best starter then just keep him as a shutdown guy at the end of games and trust in SWR, Festa, et al to fill in those 4th and 5th spots.

Exactly.  I think his ceiling is much more likely to be #3/4 than #1/2. 

Plus there is an increased risk of injury while he changes his style and ramps up the innings.  Can't put an injured Jax back in the bullpen.  Then you don't get him at all.  I personally would rather trade him at maximum value than try to make a starter out of Jax.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I see the Twins as a playoff team but only if everything goes right.

My narrow twist on this is that I see the Twins as a playoff team only if everything goes right and the other AL Central teams do not have good fortune.

Perhaps a path towards putting Griffin Jax in the starting rotation is to complete a trade with Milwaukee to acquire Delvin Williams and Jeferson Quero. Would Brooks Lee, one of Willi Castro or Jose Miranda, and a minor league prospect like Cory Lewis be fair?

This provides protection for the bullpen at least. I'm still wondering if David Festa really needs so much more time in AAA and it sure seems like Simeon Woods Richardson put his name down for a starting slot with his performance last year. The pitchers could sure use a couple of guys to catch the ball though.

[RaoulDuke]

I think they should leave him be to continue to be a great bullpen arm, he has the "fireman" capability and the stuff to be a closer. 

Great pen arms are becoming more and more valuable as starters pitch less, especially ones that could throw 2 or 3 innings at a high level.

I think as starter he would be a short start, 5 inning guy for at least the first year.  Eventually once all the way stretched out is he a 3rd starter?

He is an interesting case is he most valuable as a setup/ closer arm, Innings limited starter, or could you use him as a kinda long reliever ace and throw him multiple innings less frequently.  The economics has to get there to be viable but I think that is going to be a sought after pitcher eventually.               

 

[dxpavelka]

Entirely possible that Jax is a significantly better pitcher than he was in 2021 BECAUSE he is no longer a starter.  Just sayin

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

I think they should leave him be to continue to be a great bullpen arm, he has the "fireman" capability and the stuff to be a closer. 

Great pen arms are becoming more and more valuable as starters pitch less, especially ones that could throw 2 or 3 innings at a high level.

I think as starter he would be a short start, 5 inning guy for at least the first year.  Eventually once all the way stretched out is he a 3rd starter?

He is an interesting case is he most valuable as a setup/ closer arm, Innings limited starter, or could you use him as a kinda long reliever ace and throw him multiple innings less frequently.  The economics has to get there to be viable but I think that is going to be a sought after pitcher eventually.               

 

And once he gets stretched out he becomes a 6 inning guy. Or a 5 & 2/3 inning guy.  Leave him right where he is.  We have the "luxury" of having 2 potentially dominant high leverage guys at the back of the pen.  Let's keep it.

[specialiststeve]

HARD PASS!! 

Let's not do another Louie Varland experiment and ruin a high end asset in the bullpen and make him useless. 

As the saying goes.. "if it ain't broken... don't fix it". 

[NYCTK]

The Atlanta Braves were such fools to move John Smoltz back to the starting rotation. He was so dominant when he came back from injury as a reliever. Arguably the best reliever in all of baseball. And he was there for four seasons, there's no guarantee he could even stretch out that long, especially since he's older. 

I just don't see why they would mess with a 96 win team by doing this...

[Muppet]

I'd rather see him transition into closer and wait until there is a hole in the rotation to figure out how to plug the hole. 

[Coach]

Two words (Louie Varland).  How'd that work out?  Take out a proven Jax to pay an unknown (and probably more expensive) Paul, good luck with all that?

[tony&rodney]

If the Twins trade any of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, or Woods Richardson we should expect Jax to get his shot in the rotation.

[dxpavelka]

On 12/10/2024 at 9:05 AM, specialiststeve said:

HARD PASS!! 

Let's not do another Louie Varland experiment and ruin a high end asset in the bullpen and make him useless. 

As the saying goes.. "if it ain't broken... don't fix it". 

If it ain't broke don't break it