Twins Bullpen Depth Survives Non-Tender Deadline; Relief Questions Persist

[Tom Froemming]

Despite some speculation that Michael Tonkin or Justin Topa might be non-tendered, the Minnesota Twins are set to retain all of their arbitration-eligible players. With that decision solidified, let’s take a look at the current state of the Twins bullpen.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

 

Projected Opening Day Bullpen
There are three pitchers currently in the big league bullpen picture who are out of options: Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Ronny Henriquez. Scott Blewett is also out of options, but since he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, we’ll consider him on the outside looking in. Taking options into account, here’s how I would currently project the Opening Day bullpen (listed in alphabetical order by handedness):

RHP: Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin
LHP: Kody Funderburk

Even though I would personally rank Justin Topa slightly above Tonkin and Henriquez, the fact that Topa still has options is working against him. I would prioritize keeping all three of them in the org over putting Topa in the active bullpen and risk losing either Tonkin or Henriquez. 

Feel free to share your thoughts on that, but keep in mind it’s likely this decision will be made in the trainer’s room. There’s not much of a chance this entire bullpen unit is all healthy at any given time, so this hypothetical battle for the final couple spots in the pen will likely work its way out naturally. Either way, this is a good situation to be in. There are more MLB arms in this org than there are spots in the big league bullpen.

In addition to being the odd man out in my hypothetical pen, Topa is also the only other reliever currently on the 40-man roster. Still, there’s no shortage of other arms that could either provide length or even convert into a relief role. Matt Canterino, Louie Varland and Travis Adams fall into that category. With the left side of the pen looking like a soft spot, converting Brent Headrick to relief full time could also make some sense. 

The aforementioned Blewett and Daniel Duarte, who were both recently signed to minor league deals, are among the depth options not currently on the 40-man roster. Lefty Jovani Moran is also still in the org and could return to the big leagues once healthy.

Even without making a single addition yet, this looks like a sturdy bullpen foundation. If things break right, this should be a very solid bullpen with a narrow path of being one of the best in baseball.

Duran and Jax is an elite combo. There has been some chatter of Jax possibly converting back to a starter, but it’s been pretty weak language used around that speculation. I don’t think it’s worth overreacting to some people with the Twins saying they’d be open to that possibility. Duran hasn’t been as invincible since his remarkable 2022 rookie year, but Jax surging since then keeps this duo flexing.

Beyond those two in the back end, there’s plenty to like about the supporting cast of Stewart, Sands and Alcala. There’s plenty to like about the right side of this bullpen. That box is checked. The left side is a big question mark at the moment.

Bullpen Needs
This appears to be the current left-handed pecking order: 1) Kody Funderburk, 2) Brent Headrick, 3) Jovani Moran. Those are the only three southpaws with MLB experience in the org, and each one of them feels like a better supporting southpaw than the go-to guy. 

Some of the left-handed options in the high minors include Jaylen Nowlin and Christian MacLeod, but they’re not on the 40-man roster and have little relief experience. Connor Prielipp is an exciting possibility, but that feels more like a pipe dream.

The biggest need for this Twins bullpen is a reliable, proven left-handed reliever. In fact, that might be the biggest glaring need on the entire roster. Ideally, we would see Funderbruk start the year in St. Paul and an external addition taking his spot in the Opening Day bullpen. Beyond that, is there really anything else to add to the bullpen wishlist?

You can never have too much pitching, but I like the look of the rest of both the big league bullpen and the depth options at the moment. This is a familiar-looking unit, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Twins ranked fifth in reliever fWAR last year, though the ERA estimators viewed this unit in a much kinder light than its actual ERA. Despite ranking in the top seven in FIP, xFIP and SIERA, the Twins bullpen ranked 19th in ERA.

Potential Targets
Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of supply when it comes to established left-handed relief pitching. Earlier this offseason, Nick Nelson relayed seven free agent lefties that stood out as capable of filling a prominent role with the Twins.

Another arm added to the mix this week is Colin Poche, who was non-tendered by the Rays. He’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 174 games with Tampa Bay the past three seasons. Poche, 30, was projected for a $3.4 million salary through arbitration.

The Twins front office could also turn to the trade market again to try to land a lefty. Either way, they need to nail this. If the guy they bring in performs similarly to how Steven Okert pitched this past season, dreams of this bullpen reaching its ceiling go up in smoke.

 

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[Jeff K]

i agree with your premise that injuries will help make these decisions.  I do believe that Topa makes the opening day roster and hopefully the "Varland experience" at starting pitching is OVER and joins the pen.

[tony&rodney]

The biggest additions to help the bullpen would be a left-fielder and at least one of a 2B/3B/1B who can make the plays behind the pitchers.

The Twins have the base of a decent bullpen in place. Varland could be the guy who makes a major step forward and Sands along with Alcala could also improve. Tonkin, with his rubber arm, provides innings at times when the other relievers need a day of rest. Health is always the unknown for pitchers over the course of a season.

[Blyleven2011]

With the roster at 37 , and all players tendered contracts ii don't think there will be much trading  , alot of minor league signings and invites to spring training for players to fill out the roster  ...

The FO currently likes this team going forward  and seems to be going the cheap route once again  , will the holes be filled ?  ...

Castro to me is tradeable  with his contract to high for the twins  , could return a left handed reliever or righted bat or even a first basemen  ...

Like i said earlier  , they like and have confidence in the current team , WHY , because the 2023 deadline , no trades , 2023-24 they didn't fill all the holes on the roster and 2024 deadline they made no trades  , that there tells me it's not going to be an active offseason ...

What will they do this off season  ? , not much they can do with the budget restraints  but roll with the same players for 2025 with no key acquisitions ...

Please prove me wrong  ...

[jmlease1]

Adding a proven LHP who doesn't get beat up by any righty who can hold a bat is the biggest need for this bullpen, other than decent health. Heck, the Twins don't need to get lucky and have good to great health from the bullpen to have a strong group, just not have every coin flip go against them.

Varland is for sure going to be in the bullpen. Will he start the season there? I suspect he will, and the team will risk Henriquez getting grabbed by someone else. But that's just a hunch. We'll see where Topa and Stewart are health-wise: if 100% healthy they're in the 'pen. If not, maybe we see Topa stashed in AAA for a few weeks to work his way back and Stewart on the IL.

The basis is there for a strong bullpen, especially if they add a LHP. Funderburk is decent depth that way and Moran certainly has the talent (but may need some AAA time to get used to pitching again).

[DJL44]

I would keep Topa in the big league bullpen over Funderburk but I also don't think depth chart speculation matters much. It's nearly impossible to keep the 8 guys at the top of your depth chart all healthy at the same time. I expect more than 1 pitcher on your list will be injured before the season even begins.

I agree that the glaring need is a competent LHRP.

[thelanges5]

Poche is worth a look. Don’t trust Fundy at this point. 
 

If not, Topa over Fundy to start. The lefties can battle their way to the majors - Fundy, Moran, Headrick. 
 

Varland is Stewart insurance. 

[rv78]

this looks like a sturdy bullpen foundation. If things break right, this should be a very solid bullpen with a narrow path of being one of the best in baseball.

We were told last year that it WAS the best in baseball. I once again LOL.

[mikelink45]

I have no comment on the current collection of arms - who knows with a BP.  But I am wondering if we won't see a trend like the batting shift from HR and K to contact/power and fewer Ks.

With thirty teams needing 390 arms for the collective BP I would see some teams trying to move back to the old formula - SP going at least 7 and reducing the number of mediocre arms needed for the BP by at least 60. 

Of course this may be an Old Man Dream.

[LambchoP]

We have a good core of a bullpen with only a few needs. Jax needs to stay our setup man, Varland needs to accept he's a full-time reliever now. We should be set from the right side

 If Canterino can actually pitch it will be a bonus. What we need is to sign a proven left handed relief pitcher who can also get eighties out. Funderburk, Moran and Headrick can all compete for the second LHRP position. If we get our lefty set up man and get relatively good health from our guys, we should have a solid pen.

[Otaknam]

I’m not sure why Henriquez is looked upon so fondly that he must be protected. His high octane fastball hasn’t resulted in him being a relied upon bullpen option. I guess he’s just a better,depth piece than others.

[Otaknam]

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I have no comment on the current collection of arms - who knows with a BP.  But I am wondering if we won't see a trend like the batting shift from HR and K to contact/power and fewer Ks.

With thirty teams needing 390 arms for the collective BP I would see some teams trying to move back to the old formula - SP going at least 7 and reducing the number of mediocre arms needed for the BP by at least 60. 

Of course this may be an Old Man Dream.

I am with you on starters getting more innings. Analytics has its place, but I think the managers have to show more trust in starters to pitch more than five or six innings. Baldelli has too many examples where he takes a starter out after five innings, 80 pitches and 2 runs. Show some confidence in your players to give you more than five innings, instead of taxing your bullpen. 

[old nurse]

They need players with options to rotate through for when the injuries pile up. The minor league signing players pretty much are there by their history of achievement. The St Paul coaches are going to dix that problem. 

[David Maro]

Basically the same team that finished short of the playoffs. It is all about the health of the core players who can't seem to stay healthy. Just how many BP arms will be ready to pitch on opening day and still pitching in September. 

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

I’m not sure why Henriquez is looked upon so fondly that he must be protected. His high octane fastball hasn’t resulted in him being a relied upon bullpen option. I guess he’s just a better,depth piece than others.

He was a 24-year old rookie last season and should be the youngest pitcher in the bullpen. He's younger than Mathews, Festa, Canterino, Varland, Travis Adams, and Christian Macleod. He's a few months older than Prielipp and Lewis.

He did just fine in AAA and the major leagues. His youth and success last season mean it would be silly to cut him. If he gets just a little bit better they'll keep him for 6 more seasons.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

What will they do this off season  ? , not much they can do with the budget restraints  but roll with the same players for 2025 with no key acquisitions ...

The Twins can make a few trades and actually decrease the payroll. Perhaps I stand alone on this but I reject the notion that the payroll ceiling limits the Twins ability to improve their roster sufficiently to compete successfully in the AL Central. No, the Twins will not sign Soto or have a budget to match the large market clubs. That is a reality but no more an obstacle for Falvey than for Milwaukee, Cleveland, and other highly competitive teams. The Twins absolutely can and should acquire a few players to improve their team. Those decisions are strictly up to Falvey.

[Blyleven2011]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins can make a few trades and actually decrease the payroll. Perhaps I stand alone on this but I reject the notion that the payroll ceiling limits the Twins ability to improve their roster sufficiently to compete successfully in the AL Central. No, the Twins will not sign Soto or have a budget to match the large market clubs. That is a reality but no more an obstacle for Falvey than for Milwaukee, Cleveland, and other highly competitive teams. The Twins absolutely can and should acquire a few players to improve their team. Those decisions are strictly up to Falvey.

The key words are " should they " ...

The way they have operated in the past off seasons and deadlines  tells me there going to rely on what we have and add minor league contracts with invites to spring training ...

We can only hope for a difference maker ...

[KBJ1]

The bullpen had promise when healthy, but it wasn't and it sucked.

More of the same this year it looks like. 

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins can make a few trades and actually decrease the payroll. Perhaps I stand alone on this but I reject the notion that the payroll ceiling limits the Twins ability to improve their roster sufficiently to compete successfully in the AL Central. No, the Twins will not sign Soto or have a budget to match the large market clubs. That is a reality but no more an obstacle for Falvey than for Milwaukee, Cleveland, and other highly competitive teams. The Twins absolutely can and should acquire a few players to improve their team. Those decisions are strictly up to Falvey.

Milwaukee and Cleveland are interesting examples because they have approached roster building differently.  Cleveland seems to have a blueprint where Milwaukee seems to adapt.  Cleveland has been far more consistent than Milwaukee but Milwaukee has managed to stay very competitive of late.  We will see if they can again adapt after losing Adames and Burnes.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins can make a few trades and actually decrease the payroll. Perhaps I stand alone on this but I reject the notion that the payroll ceiling limits the Twins ability to improve their roster sufficiently to compete successfully in the AL Central. No, the Twins will not sign Soto or have a budget to match the large market clubs. That is a reality but no more an obstacle for Falvey than for Milwaukee, Cleveland, and other highly competitive teams. The Twins absolutely can and should acquire a few players to improve their team. Those decisions are strictly up to Falvey.

You don't stand alone, I'm 100% behind you. If the Twins want to compete they have to accurately find our real holes, go out there & fill them via trade pure & simple. We have plenty of trade bait & we can trim some fat while we're at it.

[Doctor Gast]

Henriquez & Tonkin have value since they can eat low-leverage innings but since they are out of options, IMO they aren't worth keeping on the active roster. I wouldn't throw Varland & Topa (who are better than them) down in AAA to waste their bullets down there. I'm not that excited about Poche (LHP), I don't know if he'd be that much better than Funderburk, Headricks, or Moran. We have trade bait go out & find a good LHRP. Although we missed our best opportunity last season, I'm sure there are good ones still out there, you just have to look.

I'm encouraged about Stewart, he's very positive about his health this coming season. IMO Duran will have a better footing this season & I'd keep him strictly in the closer role. Varland will flourish in the BP role. Alcala is one more season removed from his injury but I'd still not put too much on him, especially in the beginning & Jax is Jax. Canterino & Preillip are wild cards in the BP & Raya as an opener.

[1985Fan]

I agree with others in adding a proven high leverage LHRP. With the 3-batter rule, there are no more left handed specialist situations, but BP still requires LHRP to face LH hitters that won’t be pinch hit for (Seager, Devers, Soto, etc.). It’s a nice option to have in critical situations. If they want an elite BP, they need to replace Thielbars reliability. 
I think Funderburk, Moran, or Headrick could develop into a reliable BP piece, but they aren’t there yet. They’ll be good depth for now. Should be able to trade for a quality BP arm by trading Castro. 

[tony&rodney]

I wondered if Thielbar will be signed by some team or worth an invite with $1M plus a few incentives deal. I would guess he gets more money from some team but I would think he is still interested in another year or two of making MLB $. 

[stringer bell]

Anyone remember last season? Just before Opening Day, Thielbar, Durán and Topa all went on the IL. Expecting everyone to be healthy on Opening Day is a stretch IMHO. They'll need all of the guys on the 40-man roster and probably more. 

I can't imagine a healthy Topa will be sent to St. Paul. He's experienced success for a whole season, much in high leverage, and none of the other guys have beyond Jax and Durán. Varland is probably a lock to convert to the BP and might be a late-inning option.

The team is definitely lacking from the left side, both in the rotation and the bullpen. Trading or adding a lefty to the staff to add a bit more balance makes sense.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Henriquez & Tonkin have value since they can eat low-leverage innings but since they are out of options, IMO they aren't worth keeping on the active roster. I wouldn't throw Varland & Topa (who are better than them) down in AAA to waste their bullets down there.

Varland was clearly worse than Henriquez last season. It's not even debatable.

[Doctor Gast]

49 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Varland was clearly worse than Henriquez last season. It's not even debatable.

Why don't we compare Jax's days as a starter to Henriquez's as a RP? You can't compare apples to oranges & say "Throw out all conditions, it's not debatable because it's my stats & opinion."

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Why don't we compare Jax's days as a starter to Henriquez's as a RP? You can't compare apples to oranges & say "Throw out all conditions, it's not debatable because it's my stats & opinion."

Varland faced 83 batters and had a 9.87 ERA as a reliever with a .859 OPS against. He was horrible, even worse than he was as a starter.

Henriquez faced 82 batters had a 3.26 ERA with a .716 OPS against. He needs to improve his pitching vs LHB but was otherwise quite good.

If you want a larger sample size, Varland's numbers in AAA are also significantly worse than Henriquez.

Is stand by my assertion. Varland was clearly worse than Henriquez in 2024. It's not even debatable.

[bean5302]

The Twins' bullpen was solid last year. We saw a repeat of 2022 where Baldelli wouldn't give his starters more than 4-5 innings, then went to an already worn down bullpen that needed to be near perfect since the offense couldn't plate runs. The Twins were the 5th best in all of baseball with only 5 blown saves in August/September despite being asked to pitch the 4th most innings. The problem was the rotation and hitting, not the bullpen, though Falvey's failure to acquire the lefty the Twins needed so badly with Funderburk and Thielbar's devastatingly poor performances shoulders some blame, too.

The Twins are in a payroll crunch which is nearing crisis levels. Depth is not something the team can afford anywhere, to be honest. Any major injuries in spring training might tank the season before it even begins.

 

[HerbieFan]

We should not be surprised....this is exactly how Falvey has shown he thinks you build a bullpen.  Couple studs at the back end....handful of ok arms and analytics the bleep out of it :)

I guess I'd rather see a bunch of arms that are actually good but this is what we have.  Failure to add a quality left-handed reliever would be malpractice.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I have no comment on the current collection of arms - who knows with a BP.  But I am wondering if we won't see a trend like the batting shift from HR and K to contact/power and fewer Ks.

With thirty teams needing 390 arms for the collective BP I would see some teams trying to move back to the old formula - SP going at least 7 and reducing the number of mediocre arms needed for the BP by at least 60. 

Of course this may be an Old Man Dream.

It’s kind of like reversing the DH rule.

Player’s Union likes all the arms that get a chance to throw as hard as they can for as long as they can ……..once they sign a deal they get paid if they are pitching or recovering from Tommy John or whatever surgery may be needed.

I like the better “pitcher” mentality and more starter innings via pitching smart and not max effort…….don’t see “staffs” reverting to this. Maybe one guy on every other staff through baseball - 15 guys.