Twins Bullpen Depth Survives Non-Tender Deadline; Relief Questions Persist

[JD-TWINS]

I like the current Pen potential.

Paddack, to me, is a great fit and has the mentality to throw 75 innings over 45-50 appearances. That fits his innings capabilities over a season, with good stuff in essentially every outing. $7.5M is worthwhile for a bridge guy to get from beginning of 6th through 7th.

I’d seriously consider, if budget cannot change, trading Duran with other pieces to get a BAT.

Jax - closer…….bigger $$ value going forward so he forgets the “2nd chance as starter” whim!

Alcala - Blewett - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Jax - Moran -  Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Tonkin - Topa - Varland  (3 guys are hurt - 2 guys don’t perform - still have 8 solid guys) ……….. Canterino - Prielipp if healthy later in Summer ………. Raya in late August out of Pen as well……. if they can keep Duran and get a serious BAT by other means this Pen is elite! Without Duran the Pen is still very solid!!

[dxpavelka]

I love how we spend the entire off-season fretting about the opening day roster and the opening day lineup and the opening day this and the opening day that.  26 guys make the opening day roster.  Another 26 generally end up contributing to varying degrees.   Our focus seems too narrow.

[IndianaTwin]

11 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I am with you on starters getting more innings. Analytics has its place, but I think the managers have to show more trust in starters to pitch more than five or six innings. Baldelli has too many examples where he takes a starter out after five innings, 80 pitches and 2 runs. Show some confidence in your players to give you more than five innings, instead of taxing your bullpen. 

By “too many examples,” how many do you mean? 

This year, between Lopez, Ober and Ryan, there was one game in which they went only five innings, with 80 or fewer pitches and 2 or fewer runs. It was Ober’s second start of the season, after he had gotten shelled in his first start, and the bullpen was very rested. 

Among the rest of the team, it happened to SWR once, Paddack twice (including his first start back from the IL), Festa once and Matthews once (in his first game in the bigs). 

That’s a total of six times on the year, with at least three of them easily explained with some context.

As has been named elsewhere, the notion of Rocco having a quick hook in comparison to others is not true. Whether you measure by innings per start or pitches per start, Twins starters went slightly longer than average last year.

When Rocco has the horses, he lets them ride. In the past, when Twins starters were pulled quicker than average, there was a simple two-part explanation: First, they used Openers more than other teams, which brings the average down. Second, they had starters that sucked and deserved to be pulled. 

[Tom Froemming]

11 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I’m not sure why Henriquez is looked upon so fondly that he must be protected. His high octane fastball hasn’t resulted in him being a relied upon bullpen option. I guess he’s just a better,depth piece than others.

Exactly your conclusion, it's about depth. You'd still rather have Ronny around than not, so why risk losing him for absolutely nothing? As one of the low guys in the pecking order, he'll be almost exclusively used in low-leverage outings anyway. If he starts slow and doesn't get his footing, certainly go ahead and make a change at that point. It'd be another shot, but with a relatively short leash.

11 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I am with you on starters getting more innings. Analytics has its place, but I think the managers have to show more trust in starters to pitch more than five or six innings. Baldelli has too many examples where he takes a starter out after five innings, 80 pitches and 2 runs. Show some confidence in your players to give you more than five innings, instead of taxing your bullpen. 

I'm not trying to say you have to like it, but this is Major League Baseball in 2024. It's not Rocco. The Twins had a slightly above average innings per start and pitches per start last season despite something like 50 starts coming from rookies.

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

I love how we spend the entire off-season fretting about the opening day roster and the opening day lineup and the opening day this and the opening day that.  26 guys make the opening day roster.  Another 26 generally end up contributing to varying degrees.   Our focus seems too narrow.

I'm not sure this "we" is necessarily directed at me, but I mentioned about 20 in-house relief options in the article.

[PatPfund]

Maybe you protect Henriquez, but if Tonkin doesn't pitch well, I can see the Twins going the waiver route with him, and being ambivalent about the outcome; if someone claims him, Tonkin's guaranteed money comes off the books, if not you assign him to St Paul (a slightly cheaper version of the game they play with Dobnak when they need him).

I do disagree about the biggest need on the Twins, though. Their rotation has two solid pieces (Lopez, Ober), Ryan returning from a shoulder injury (which even if healthy likely means innings restriction), Paddack who last had a healthy season of over 110 innings in 2019, SWR who save the season but wore down big time, and a couple rookies getting their first longer run in MLB (Festa looked up to it, Zebby looked like he needs more AAA). The single biggest need on the team is for a solid and healthy #3-#4 SP who can give the team a chance while tossing 160 innings. Several were available at bargain rates before the season last year, and we need to push the depth line down a notch or two the way we started 2023 with Ober in St Paul. All other positions have in-house possible (and cheap) solutions, and can also be remedied relatively cheaply in-season, but trying to find an SP near the deadline is both expensive and often futile.

(And yeah, I know the future is brighter, but counting on multiple SWR-like seasons from Zebby on down in April/May of '25 is asking for huge trouble. The 'pen isn't the only place likely to be visited by injury.)

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

Exactly your conclusion, it's about depth. You'd still rather have Ronny around than not, so why risk losing him for absolutely nothing? As one of the low guys in the pecking order, he'll be almost exclusively used in low-leverage outings anyway. If he starts slow and doesn't get his footing, certainly go ahead and make a change at that point. It'd be another shot, but with a relatively short leash.

I'm not trying to say you have to like it, but this is Major League Baseball in 2024. It's not Rocco. The Twins had a slightly above average innings per start and pitches per start last season despite something like 50 starts coming from rookies.

I'm not sure this "we" is necessarily directed at me, but I mentioned about 20 in-house relief options in the article.

We was / is the fan base in general.  WE will continue to do this right up to the first pitch of the season. 

[DocBauer]

Topa and Varland still have options. I don't like the idea of keeping someone on the roster merely because they are out of options so we'll just keep them and hope for the best. However, think about Ober a couple years ago when he absolutely didn't belong in AAA to begin the season. But he was only there for about 3 weeks before the roster changed and he's been up ever since.

The early season injuries to the pen in 2024 clearly show you just can't predict how many arms you're even going to have to begin the season. And right after the season began, the Twins lost Duarte, he earned a job coming out of ST. 

So yes, having depth and a couple guys with options who MIGHT begin the year at AAA isn't really a punishment, it's just playing with the initial roster to see what you have, and keep as much depth as you can for as long as you can.

I am intriged somewhat by Colin Poche as an option. I don't know if he's the right choice to target as he actually has reverse splits and is more effective against RH bats. But his numbers aren't bad against LH hitters. And he's probably affordable, as well as experienced. Granted the Rays do an excellent job with their pitchers, but maybe the Twins have an idea how to get him a little better against LH hitters? 

Still, I'd rather have a version of him that's better against same side batters and still solid against RH. I'm just uncertain who the best target should be. But no question if they can find the "new" Thielbar...when he was really good the previous 3 years...changes the complexion of the pen.