8 Wild Statistics From the 2024 Minnesota Twins Season

[Nick Nelson]

In taking a deeper look at individual player metrics from the 2024 Minnesota Twins, we find some striking numbers that can tell us a great deal about what happened this past season, and what we can expect going forward.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

12-27. That's the stat that will be remembered most from the 2024 campaign. It was the Twins' win/loss record in the final six weeks, after they reached a high watermark of 17 games above .500 in mid-August. 

But there were a whole lot of other numbers involved with the past season, many of which help tell interesting stories about what happened with the team and its players. In digging deeper into player stats in the aftermath of the 2024 season, these eight really stuck out to me.

Matt Wallner had a .389 batting average on balls in play.
That's just an astonishingly high number. It ranked second in all of baseball among players with 200 or more plate appearances, behind Xavier Edwards (.398), and it's pretty funny that those two top the list because their styles couldn't be more opposite. (Edwards is a small, extreme-contact guy with no power, akin to Luis Arraez.)

Wallner's hitting profile did play a role in so many batted balls turning into hits – when you crush the ball consistently, you're going to find fewer gloves – but there was a whole lot of luck involved in his managing a .259 average while striking out in 36% of plate appearances. Wallner's K-rate was fifth-highest among players with 200+ PA, and no one else in the top 10 had a batting average above .214.

In other words, Wallner's going to need to cut down on the strikeouts substantially next year or we can expect a steep drop-off in average, and overall production.

The Twins had 3 hitters finish with a wOBA above .340.
I'm not just talking qualified hitters. I'm talking all hitters. (Well, expect Diego Castillo, who posted a .439 wOBA in eight plate appearances.) The only Twins players to post a wOBA of .340 or higher in 2024 were Wallner (.385), Carlos Correa (.385) and Byron Buxton (.366), and none played more than 102 games. From there it drops off to Trevor Larnach who came in fourth with a .336 wOBA. 

This says a ton about why the lineup was so disappointing. There simply weren't enough standout producers. By comparison, in 2023, the Twins had seven hitters with a wOBA of .340 or better: Royce Lewis, Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco. All other than Polanco returned in 2024, but only Wallner could repeat his strong performance – and only after spending the first half in Triple-A.

Griffin Jax induced swings on 41.2% of pitches outside the zone.
There are plenty of stats that could be cited to showcase Jax's greatness in 2024 but I really like this one. One of the most reliably effective things a pitcher can do is get opposing hitters to chase outside of the zone, and Jax was masterful at it, leading the American League with the above percentage.

It's a reflection of how Jax utterly baffles opposing hitters with his fastball/sweeper combo, which ranks among the most dominating pitch pairings in the game.

 

Only 5 of 17 Twins hitters had above-average sprint speed.
You probably noticed this was a slow team. The evidence backs it up. The Twins only had five above-average runners in 2024, and I was mildly surprised to learn that Wallner was one of them. The others are less surprising: Byron Buxton, Austin Martin, Willi Castro, Manuel Margot. 

Some of the names near the bottom of that list are actually more surprising to me. Christian Vázquez ranking last is expected, but second-slowest is Brooks Lee, whose sprint speed ranks in the 13th percentile. Slower than Ryan Jeffers. Slower than 38-year-old first baseman Carlos Santana. Gotta be one of the slowest middle infielders we've some come through.

Jhoan Durán's xERA (2.70), FIP (2.85) and xFIP (2.70) were all nearly a run lower than his ERA (3.64).
These numbers all tell the same story: Durán was extremely unlucky this season, and he pitched far better than the inflated ERA or nine losses would suggest. It's pretty easy to argue that he performed every bit as well as he did in 2023, when he finished with a 2.45 ERA, but stuff happens in baseball: bad sequencing, bad defense, general bad luck. 

Durán led the team in ground ball rate; in fact he ranked sixth in baseball. He allowed fewer walks and fewer home runs than the previous year. His strikeout rate was very good. Even while losing a few ticks of velocity Durán did all the important things at a premier level, which is why everyone should feel fully confident in him going forward.

Louie Varland gave up home runs on 21.1% of fly balls allowed.
Nearly one out of four balls that opposing hitters put into the air against Varland left the yard. That's wild. Even for someone not pitching well, it's an extraordinary HR/FB rate. As context, the leader among qualified pitchers was Boston reliever Zack Kelly at 20.8%, and only seven MLB relievers (no starters) were above 17 percent.

I find it noteworthy that xFIP, which attempts to normalize HR rate, had Varland at 4.14 this year compared to his 7.61 ERA. It feels kind of silly to say, "If you take away all the homers, he didn't pitch that badly!" But, there's some truth to it? I'm bullish on Lou going forward.

Edouard Julien struck out 175 times between the majors and minors.
Following a stellar rookie season, Julien's patient approach gave way to passivity as pitchers took control, in the major leagues and even in Triple-A where he struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances. 

Only one Twins hitter in history has struck out more than 175 times in a season and you surely can guess who it is: Miguel Sanó. In fact, Sanó is the only Twin to ever strike out more than 150 times in a season. While top-tier sluggers like him and Wallner can whiff at that rate and still provide value, I'm not sure the same is true of Julien.

Alex Kirilloff had a 13% line drive rate.
It was the lowest of any Twins hitter and lower than any qualified hitter in baseball. In 2023, Kirilloff's 30.9% line drive rate led the team and would've led all qualified hitters. It's a stark demonstration of how much his play dropped off following that strong 2023 campaign, with an undisclosed back injury surely playing a role. 

The Twins find themselves in a tough spot with Kirilloff this offseason, who is due for almost $2 million in arbitration next year. They know he can be a liner-spraying force at his best, but also that he was far from that version this season, and now facing a fourth consecutive offseason of health uncertainty.

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[Whitey333]

Interesting?  Not really.  The 12-27 record is much more interesting.  We'll researched though!

[Old Twins Cap]

It validates the old maxim about making a playoff run:  a team needs multiple players who are putting up career-high numbers in order to play deep into October.

Twins had some good streaks, but looking at the entire season shows why and how they were not ever going to make a run.

[JD-TWINS]

Duran’s numbers are interesting. 9 losses do come from somewhere within his pitching performance……,a few maybe “bad situations” and poor location/mistakes but generally, his SEQUENCING, as you suggest, seemed to be the biggest problem with me. Pitching backwards to make hitters look foolish, just for kicks, isn’t a great approach when one has a 99.5-101Mph fastball……,he continually threw curves & splinkers early in counts & would get behind……then he’d overthrow a fastball out of the zone. Difficult to watch unfold.

His stuff is so good that he still had very good peripheral numbers and a decent year overall.

Establish fastball and pitch off of it with the other 2 pitches. His stuff is good enough to actually not worry much about patterns but he needs (like most pitchers) to get ahead of hitters on a much higher % basis!

[old nurse]

Wallner has a career BABIP of .359. Last year his line drive percentage exit velocity, hard hit percentage, barrel percent and sweet spot percent were all above league average. He is league average in speed. If those numbers were not flukes there is no reason to expect a precipitous drop in BABIP 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The Wallner number is a little scary but let’s hope he can eliminate some strikeouts to not need such a gaudy ball batted in play number.  The one that really scares me though is Brooks Lee in the 13th percentile for sprint speed. It is to be expected for catchers (Vasquez) or really old guys (Santana), but not for YOUNG infielders.  And here’s my big concern.  If that’s his speed now, what does it look like five years from now or when he’s 33 or 34? It seems unlikely that he gets faster as he ages.  Is there anyone his age currently in the league that’s slower?  

[Reptevia]

6 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The Wallner number is a little scary but let’s hope he can eliminate some strikeouts to not need such a gaudy ball batted in play number.  The one that really scares me though is Brooks Lee in the 13th percentile for sprint speed. It is to be expected for catchers (Vasquez) or really old guys (Santana), but not for YOUNG infielders.  And here’s my big concern.  If that’s his speed now, what does it look like five years from now or when he’s 33 or 34? It seems unlikely that he gets faster as he ages.  Is there anyone his age currently in the league that’s slower?  

I doubt there’s anyone his age slower. He projects as a 1b/DH. He’s destined to be average on the left side defensively and probably at 2B too. He’s also one of the Twins “if he can stay on the field “ guys. There are WAY too many of those. 

[Trov]

These are some fun and interesting stats.  Also, some very sad stats.  The Lee sprint speed may have been affected by his injury he had, but not sure on that.  Wallner is basically Joey Gallo, for better or worse. Duran is still good, but needs better defense, way too often did he give up weak contact in infield that ended up being a hit.  Julien needs to be more aggressive and adjust to pitchers taking advantage of his "eye".  He was taking too many strikes and swinging at too many balls.  The man looked about as lost as a hitter could be. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

This was a sobering article. Having just watched two outstanding teams battle in the World Series, I am afraid the Twins have a long way to go. Every play, every day requires hustle and dedication. I can only imagine how difficult that must be. But to be in the World Series and to be lackadaisical is inexcusable. That is why one must hustle every play, every day during a long season. Repeated actions become habits, which are instantly repeated in stressful times.  That is something my army training taught me.  

[FlyingFinn]

Sprint speed is terrible and we are also so slow on defense, greatly affecting our pitchers IMO.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Matt Wallner had a .389 batting average on balls in play.
That's just an astonishingly high number.

.389 is not sustainable. That shouldn't or really can't be argued. However... I'm not one of those who think it indicates a crash is coming because BABIP is high. Yeah... .389 is off the charts compared to the average BABIP of .293 across baseball. However... Matt Wallner has been high BABIP throughout his limited work over 3 seasons. His career BABIP is .359.

BABIP is often considered a luck stat. Yes there is some luck in the game of baseball but I still contend high BABIP is primarily a quality of contact stat and it doesn't have to be a case of Blood Sweat and Tears Spinning Wheel... What goes up must come down. 

Hit the ball harder... the less time a fielder has to catch the ball and the higher the BABIP.  

People tend to look at a high BABIP negatively as a sign of upcoming regression. I don't look at it that way... I look at high BABIP as a sign of good hitting. There are players with consistent high BABIP year after year... a lot of them are also in the upper echelon of hard hit%.

Matt Wallner has been living in that upper echelon of hard hit% with some pretty impressive high BABIP names year over year.

His K rate... yeah... he needs to work on bringing that down... if he does... Look out.

If anybody wants to trade Matt Wallner to me because of BABIP fueled regression fear. I'll trade a nice low BABIP guy to you so you take the elevator up. Carlos Santana and his .252 BABIP for Wallner and his .389.

Straight up. Deal?      

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins had 3 hitters finish with a wOBA above .340.

To me... It isn't the lack of hitters above .340.

It's the number of hitters below .300. Those are the players who will kill ya. 

I'd' love me some superstars but I can live with average. The hitters who are well below average getting playing time will keep you out of the playoffs. 

17 players had over 178 PA's during the season. 8 of them were below .300 wOBA and under .300 isn't good. 

Here are the names: Kepler, Martin, Farmer, Kirilloff, Julien, Margot, Lee and Vazquez.  

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Only 5 of 17 Twins hitters had above-average sprint speed.

The rule changes has changed the game. Speed is back. I don't know how the Twins are going to do it with the constraints we assume they will have but... they gotta add speed to the roster. 

[Doctor Gast]

A real eye-opener, Nick. This makes me think that maybe some players that I'd have kept, now I'd consider trading & reinforce those I'd like to trade prior.

I was really big on Lee, his a good switch-hitter, has good baseball instincts & good glove. But being so slow makes me wonder. Even being so slow he played a good SS, we desperately need a viable backup SS depth. Castro is OK short term but not an extended time. I wasn't impressed with his hitting either so was he playing hurt all season? What was Lee's sprint speed prior? We have to take that into consideration.

Even with Varland's bad SP beginning, I still have hope for him as a RP. Wallner bad beginnings as the league had the book against the Twins's hitting philosophy. But he seems to have adjusted & seems to be playing a better OF. Julien on the other hand I have real doubt that he can adjust like Sano. He'll have to reinvent himself & he doesn't have the power to hit those HRs w/o those technics. IMO more fans can see that he can't play 2B & he'd no longer profiles at 1B. Last season he was one of my main trade bait & I'm more determined this offseason even doing so at much lower trade value (he still has some hype value). Julien is one of Falvey favorites so even if it benefits the team I doubt he'd do it.

https://www.startribune.com/alex-kirilloff-minnesota-twins-back-injury-performance/600374513          Kiriloff's bad hitting #s are due to injuries not mechanics. After May 1st (around the date of his initial back injury) his BA was .143, At Apr. 13 he was hitting a 324./ 381/ .649/ 1.030 line, this time & before he primarily played DH/1B with very few games in the OF & never a full game. After April 13 he began to play more OF & his #s started to drop until he got hurt where he fell off the cliff. In '23 after a long surgery recuperation IL Kiriloff mainly played DH/ 1B & he had a pretty good season until he hurt his shoulder. So stats fans who look at Kiriloff's overall stats & ignore underlying conditions say he's a bum are missing the boat. In '23 he played 88 games whereas in '24 he should have played in more games being another year removed from surgery but he played in only 57, I contribute that to him being shifted to the OF. Those who think that all positions have the same physical stress have no idea what they saying. I was a player/ coach for Legion, we were short bodies. I had a friend who had a dislocated shoulder a few months earlier. As a favor, he agreed to play. The only position he could play was 1B. There were a lot of stories I could share. 1B you are not required to run full blast or throw the ball hard..

So once we keep him healthy by keeping him at 1B/ DH, we can expect numbers comparable to what he had  in '23 & beginning of '24. Don't look at his overall stats, they can be deceiving. Look at who he is. And don't believe everything you read or hear on social media

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Edouard Julien struck out 175 times between the majors and minors.

I don't know the answer but I'd like to see how many of those K's were looking. Julien walks back to the dugout too many times after watching that third strike. 

I don't mind patience... waiting for the right pitch is sensible with talented pitchers trying to get you to swing at the wrong pitch but with two strikes on ya... you gotta at least try to get some wood on it. 

I hope this fixable. If it is... we just might be happy with Julien.  

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Alex Kirilloff had a 13% line drive rate.

If they keep him... Kirilloff's baseball future comes down to this year. 

He has gotten chance after chance. Scouts, Coaches, Analysts believe in this guy.. you can tell because he has gotten chance after chance. 

Scouts, Coaches and Analysts are not always right. Although sometimes... they keep giving a guy chance after chance until he eventually makes them right.   

Edit: This was posted before the news of his retirement. Since the news of his retirement. I have reconsidered my position: His baseball future does not come down to this year. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

I doubt there’s anyone his age slower. He projects as a 1b/DH. He’s destined to be average on the left side defensively and probably at 2B too. He’s also one of the Twins “if he can stay on the field “ guys. There are WAY too many of those. 

Brooks Lee doesn't project as a 1B/DH. He was a quality defender last season for the Twins, holding his own at SS and looking quite good at 3B (arguably his best position).

but maybe let's not panic too much about Brooks Lee's sprint speed at 23 coming off a back injury in only 50 MLB games.

the running game is much more complicated than sprint speed anyways: Castro is pretty fast, but wasn't actually a very good base stealer. Buxton is excellent at it, but the team is (not unreasonably) reluctant to let him run much. Julien is a fine base stealer, but hasn't really gotten the green light. As a team, the Twins have chosen not to explore this, maybe because they think everyone is too slow, maybe because they're risk-adverse on it. But there's opportunity for them to do more, regardless of just sprint speed.

[RpR]

"12-27. That's the stat that will be remembered most from the 2024 campaign. It was the Twins' win/loss record in the final six weeks, after they reached a high watermark of 17 games above .500 in mid-August. "

They finished similar to the way they started the season; there is no big surprise there really.

For the Twins over the decades a September collapse is not unusul, but often it is followed by the realse of the team manager.

Who is new on  , or gone from,  this team come Spring Training though will say more about the Front Office than the Manager.

I just read the book Twins at the Met and in an interview quoted in the book, Tom Kelly said he learned how to, and not to, approach Mr. Pohlad but did go into his office directly and tell him who he needed, which he often got.

I ponder whether or not Baldelli ever does that.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

33 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Brooks Lee doesn't project as a 1B/DH. He was a quality defender last season for the Twins, holding his own at SS and looking quite good at 3B (arguably his best position).

but maybe let's not panic too much about Brooks Lee's sprint speed at 23 coming off a back injury in only 50 MLB games.

the running game is much more complicated than sprint speed anyways: Castro is pretty fast, but wasn't actually a very good base stealer. Buxton is excellent at it, but the team is (not unreasonably) reluctant to let him run much. Julien is a fine base stealer, but hasn't really gotten the green light. As a team, the Twins have chosen not to explore this, maybe because they think everyone is too slow, maybe because they're risk-adverse on it. But there's opportunity for them to do more, regardless of just sprint speed.

I agree that Lee did OK in the field last year, but if he loses any more speed, it seems likely that it would affect him quickly and greatly on the defensive side of the ball.  I come back to him being 23 and slow.  That's an unusual combination for someone who isn't a hulking slugger.  In the immediate term, I'm more concerned about his bat.  Last year was kind of a loss, so he's got to get it going this year or he becomes just another average guy.

Not sure what happened with Castro on the basepaths.  In 2023, he was excellent and a real sparkplug on the bases, but in 2024 he seemingly couldn't make it happen at all.  I'm guessing that the truth lies somewhere in between, but that's pretty weird. 

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Not sure what happened with Castro on the basepaths.  In 2023, he was excellent and a real sparkplug on the bases, but in 2024 he seemingly couldn't make it happen at all.  I'm guessing that the truth lies somewhere in between, but that's pretty weird.

Had to be used so much that the nagging injuries he played through took a tole on his speed.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

To me... It isn't the lack of hitters above .340.

It's the number of hitters below .300. Those are the players who will kill ya. 

I'd' love me some superstars but I can live with average. The hitters who are well below average getting playing time will keep you out of the playoffs. 

17 players had over 178 PA's during the season. 8 of them were below .300 wOBA and under .300 isn't good. 

Here are the names: Kepler, Martin, Farmer, Kirilloff, Julien, Margot, Lee and Vazquez.  

This is important. The Twins biggest offensive issues are too many low wOBA guys combined with a glaring lack of speed. That makes it very difficult to manufacture runs with less than 3 hits unless you hit a lot of HRs. The Twins did for awhile and then didn't, resulting in a offensive drop off that led to collapse.  

It's easy to diagnose the problem and see the theoretical solution, but it's really hard to actually make that solution happen. The Twins need to replace/augment the roster with some speed and higher OBP guys. The problem is we don't have those guys just sitting around in the Minors with the possible exception of DaShawn Keirsey and Michael Helman, and the FO legitimately questions whether either will be able to hit at the MLB level. Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda aren't going to get faster anytime soon (although Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda at least have a reasonably strong OBP). 

To me, this is a key issue the Twins need to address in the off-season. We need to get some on base percentage/speed kind of guys who are good enough to play every day or at least be good platoon players. They don't have to be superstars, just guys who can hit .260 – .280 and have an OBP over .325. We have openings in LF, at 2B (I think Lee is going to wind up at 3B or 1B, and may start next year in AAA working on his hitting) and at 1B. We could also use one of these speed/OBP guys in the field assuming they have a strong glove and move Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, and/or Miranda to be a 50% DH type rather than everyday fielder. We need to fix this in the off-season to be successful next year.

[bean5302]

Wallner hits the ball super hard so his BABIP is going to be elevated, but he will definitely have to cut the K rate to remain a truly elite bat. He had 60 grade speed in previous years, and sprint speed in small sample sizes can be off quite a bit or if there is any kind of leg injury a player is working with so it's tough to gauge how he'll be as a runner. It's an area he should focus on if he wants to maximize his value (and paycheck).

Concerns over Duran's velocity are overstated. He was down 1.4mph on average from 2023, but only 0.5mph from 2022, and Duran missed quite a bit of time at the beginning of the season. He's still averaging over 100mph on his FB. Harder isn't necessarily better as his fastball graded much better this year in terms of stuff than last year because of movement. In 2024, Duran maxed out at 103.1mph.

Julien looks lost at the plate. It's not like his strikeouts were out of line with last year, but Julien started swinging a lot more at pitches on the inside edge of the plate from the middle to upper part of the zone. Anywhere from 10-20% higher swing rates despite him being unable to drive those balls at all. His BB rate dropped off way too much for him to be successful. He was even swinging 5% more at "balls" inside where he's helpless. Julien was also ineffective at driving balls landing in the spots he would have punished last year. I suspect Julien has some mental block here like Wallner did to start the season. No small part may be related to the quick hook the Twins gave him in favor of F.O. favorite Brooks Lee.

Speaking of... Lee has been scouted as a poor runner since before he was drafted. He's just really slow. Relies on instincts and smooth fielding skills. Zero athleticism. It's abundantly clear he wasn't ready for MLB, and the Twins probably did him a real disservice by calling his number as quickly as they did after having him rework his swing. Lee's max exit velocity of 107.4 was on the edge of bottom 10% of batters with 100+ batted ball events suggesting his raw power is probably a 40 grade tool matching his 35 grade run tool. his max throwing velocity was 83.1mph which would rank 50th of 62 3B with 50+ throws, it feels like Brooks Lee's ceiling is a lesser version of Miranda right now. Miranda has a tick faster running speed, and a tick harder throwing speed, but with a lot more raw power, and I think a similar contact based hit tool with both of them refusing to allow a pitcher to walk them. Obviously, Lee's a polished fielder which makes up for a lot of his physical limitations, but grading him out would probably be Hit = 55, Power = 40, Speed = 35, Arm = 40, Fielding = 50. Part time utility infielder is the likely outcome without some major changes to his physical abilities.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Brooks Lee in the 13th percentile for sprint speed. It is to be expected for catchers 

He's smart, good arm and a coach's son. Why isn't Brooks Lee a catcher?

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

Wallner is basically Joey Gallo, for better or worse.

They both strike out a ton and both hit for power.  However, Wallner is pretty much the anti-Gallo, when it comes to BABIP, which is what this article highlighted for him.

BABIP is a very interesting part of a player's portfolio.  It's often used as a synonym for "luck", in that the league as a whole typically hits .300 on balls in play, and if you don't know anything else about a player then if his BABIP is very far from .300 in a given season you might expect the so-called regression to mean.

However, not every player's own baseline BABIP is .300.  Joe Mauer kept his around .340 for his entire career.  Luis Arraez is on a similar pace, so far.  I don't believe in "luck" very often, not in a game where trained athletes are competing against other trained athletes who are all trying their best on every play.  BABIP regressing to .300 is a useful guide but is not some sort of law of nature.

Conversely, a high BABIP is not a Hall of Fame kind of profile, by itself. 

If you take a look at hitters who've had 2000 PA in the past 4 seasons, and whose BABIP in that timespan has been .330 or higher, you have some absolute studs like Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman, but you also have a sprinkling of "wait, him?" players like Amed Rosario.  If a hitter has a high BABIP and also walks a lot and hits home runs (or lots of doubles) then that's a potent combination, but some guys have BABIP galore and don't back it up with additional value.  It could correlate, but it's nothing close to a cause-effect.

Low BABIP is by itself nothing to hope for, but at the low end of the same group of players*, there is a smattering of guys like Max Muncy, Pete Alonzo, and Kyle Schwarber who are highly productive despite BABIP in the .240-.260 range.  Our own Carlos Santana brings up the rear in this group with a .237 BABIP, and yet he's done enough on top of that particular facet of his game to earn major league contracts and will get another one next season.

So... what I'm leading to here is that Wallner's career BABIP is currently .359.  That's across merely 3 partial seasons, so there is plenty of room for doubt, but all three partial seasons have been in keeping with this, rather than drastically up and down.  Joey Gallo?  For his career, his BABIP is .254.  A full 100 points lower than Wallner.

The two batters share some common ground, but in this one area they could hardly be more different, and I think it's an under-studied aspect of analytics.  There are many ways to carve out a successful major league career, but BABIP by itself, once it stabilizes, doesn't tell me enough.  Gallo has fewer PA than Amed Rosario, yet has scored more runs and driven in more runs, so in a vacuum you want to know more about Gallo than just his low BABIP (namely that he supplements his BA with walks, and he hits balls over the fence).

If Wallner continues to walk and hit homers, his BABIP suggests he could be a lot better than Gallo, at the end of his career.  If the BABIP isn't entirely a mirage, of course.  That's the big unknown touched on by this article.

 

* I'm quick to point out that this choice of players contains a statistical bias built in: you have to be pretty darn good in the first place to amass 2000 PA in 4 seasons.  But then again, do I CARE about the batting profile of bad players?

 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

BABIP is a very interesting part of a player's portfolio.  It's often used as a synonym for "luck", in that the league as a whole typically hits .300 on balls in play, and if you don't know anything else about a player then if his BABIP is very far from .300 in a given season you might expect the so-called regression to mean.

However, not every player's own baseline BABIP is .300.  Joe Mauer kept his around .340 for his entire career.  Luis Arraez is on a similar pace, so far.  But it's not a Hall of Fame kind of profile, by itself. 

Mauer never popped the ball up. I wonder how much that matters.

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Mauer never popped the ball up. I wonder how much that matters.

Good point.  And fans wanted Joe to try a little harder to hit home runs - that could correlate with popups.  Then again, Aaron Judge has kept his BABIP in Joe's range for the past 4 seasons, and few quibble about his power - I don't know Judge's popup rate.

[Cris E]

Lots of things can affect BABIP, so there's no one profile for a high or low guy. But Wallner does two things that raise it and another that might raise it. First, he hits the ball hard so the defense doesn't get many easy plays. It's either caught or not, and guys that lack a half step won't be reaching some of those shots. Second, he runs well. He's a big guy, but he gets down the line quickly and that also puts pressure on the defense. And finally he strikes out a lot, which reduces the number of balls In Play. I'm not sure this directly makes things easier or harder, but because of the first two it might work in his favor.

Anyway, I said last winter that Wallner was not a slam dunk stud for 2024 and could be a big candidate for a sophomore slump. I'm not entirely right or wrong on that, but the song remains the same for him this winter: he needs to work on contact, work on his platoon deficiencies, and stay quick. Because as a big guy heading towards 30 he could turn into a Jim Rice shaped GDP machine quickly.

EDIT: This sounds harsh, but I like Wallner. He's a better player than his strikeouts and blah avg might indicate because he gets hit by pitches A LOT. Like 16 last season alone. It's crazy, but it's an extra way he gets on and contributes.

[Reptevia]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This is important. The Twins biggest offensive issues are too many low wOBA guys combined with a glaring lack of speed. That makes it very difficult to manufacture runs with less than 3 hits unless you hit a lot of HRs. The Twins did for awhile and then didn't, resulting in a offensive drop off that led to collapse.  

It's easy to diagnose the problem and see the theoretical solution, but it's really hard to actually make that solution happen. The Twins need to replace/augment the roster with some speed and higher OBP guys. The problem is we don't have those guys just sitting around in the Minors with the possible exception of DaShawn Keirsey and Michael Helman, and the FO legitimately questions whether either will be able to hit at the MLB level. Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda aren't going to get faster anytime soon (although Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda at least have a reasonably strong OBP). 

To me, this is a key issue the Twins need to address in the off-season. We need to get some on base percentage/speed kind of guys who are good enough to play every day or at least be good platoon players. They don't have to be superstars, just guys who can hit .260 – .280 and have an OBP over .325. We have openings in LF, at 2B (I think Lee is going to wind up at 3B or 1B, and may start next year in AAA working on his hitting) and at 1B. We could also use one of these speed/OBP guys in the field assuming they have a strong glove and move Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, and/or Miranda to be a 50% DH type rather than everyday fielder. We need to fix this in the off-season to be successful next year.

The Twins don’t “find” themselves in this position. They are in this position because they made a point of drafting and filling the roster with guys who hit .200 with a little pop. They made a point of drafting/signing slow guys. They made a point of not emphasizing defense.   We are here because of long term planning. THIS is the team they want. The only question is how long people on here and in the media will continue to believe the consistent failure to reach “expected” results is “bad luck “. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

They both strike out a ton and both hit for power.  However, Wallner is pretty much the anti-Gallo, when it comes to BABIP, which is what this article highlighted for him.

BABIP is a very interesting part of a player's portfolio.  It's often used as a synonym for "luck", in that the league as a whole typically hits .300 on balls in play, and if you don't know anything else about a player then if his BABIP is very far from .300 in a given season you might expect the so-called regression to mean.

However, not every player's own baseline BABIP is .300.  Joe Mauer kept his around .340 for his entire career.  Luis Arraez is on a similar pace, so far.  I don't believe in "luck" very often, not in a game where trained athletes are competing against other trained athletes who are all trying their best on every play.  BABIP regressing to .300 is a useful guide but is not some sort of law of nature.

Conversely, a high BABIP is not a Hall of Fame kind of profile, by itself. 

If you take a look at hitters who've had 2000 PA in the past 4 seasons, and whose BABIP in that timespan has been .330 or higher, you have some absolute studs like Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman, but you also have a sprinkling of "wait, him?" players like Amed Rosario.  If a hitter has a high BABIP and also walks a lot and hits home runs (or lots of doubles) then that's a potent combination, but some guys have BABIP galore and don't back it up with additional value.  It could correlate, but it's nothing close to a cause-effect.

Low BABIP is by itself nothing to hope for, but at the low end of the same group of players*, there is a smattering of guys like Max Muncy, Pete Alonzo, and Kyle Schwarber who are highly productive despite BABIP in the .240-.260 range.  Our own Carlos Santana brings up the rear in this group with a .237 BABIP, and yet he's done enough on top of that particular facet of his game to earn major league contracts and will get another one next season.

So... what I'm leading to here is that Wallner's career BABIP is currently .359.  That's across merely 3 partial seasons, so there is plenty of room for doubt, but all three partial seasons have been in keeping with this, rather than drastically up and down.  Joey Gallo?  For his career, his BABIP is .254.  A full 100 points lower than Wallner.

The two batters share some common ground, but in this one area they could hardly be more different, and I think it's an under-studied aspect of analytics.  There are many ways to carve out a successful major league career, but BABIP by itself, once it stabilizes, doesn't tell me enough.  Gallo has fewer PA than Amed Rosario, yet has scored more runs and driven in more runs, so in a vacuum you want to know more about Gallo than just his low BABIP (namely that he supplements his BA with walks, and he hits balls over the fence).

If Wallner continues to walk and hit homers, his BABIP suggests he could be a lot better than Gallo, at the end of his career.  If the BABIP isn't entirely a mirage, of course.  That's the big unknown touched on by this article.

 

* I'm quick to point out that this choice of players contains a statistical bias built in: you have to be pretty darn good in the first place to amass 2000 PA in 4 seasons.  But then again, do I CARE about the batting profile of bad players?

 

BABIP is an interesting stat to play around with.

Taking the Home Runs and strikeouts out is like taking the shoe laces out of shoes and checking out the shoe itself. 

After checking it out... I just put the shoe laces back in for a better shoe experience. The shoe laces are just to important for evaluation of the shoe.

Because home runs really really matter and those strikeouts are the untied shoe lace that sent me into the bushes last week. 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

My number one issue with this team is that it runs and moves like a slow pitch, beer league softball team.  We're the White Sox we used to chide when we ran around them like pirahnas.

I'm all for some bash, but this team needs more dash.  We're simply not making life difficult enough on our opponents in between slugging.