Why the Twins Might Need to Trade Carlos Correa

[Karbo]

Trade Correa and watch interest in the team drop. They need to increase interest, especially with the broadcast situation. Are the Pohlad's smart enough to figure this out? So far it seems they aren't,

[kenneth frank]

Trade him? No way, but I like the thought of moving him to 1st base.

[Otaknam]

12 hours ago, rv78 said:

Should have never signed him in the first place. Over-rated and over-paid.

 

38 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

I understand why trading him might make sense, however with injuries the last 2 seasons he is likely currently untraceable til he has at least 1 full healthy good season

Most major league stars are overpaid, that’s called what the market will bear. Just like you and me, we try to get paid as much as our skills and the market allows. But Correa is a great player when healthy, both offensively and defensively. 

[Otaknam]

With the team’s best young players infielders (Lee, Julien, Keaschall, Miranda) with Lee looking like he can be an everyday shortstop, it wouldn’t surprise me if they trade Correa to save money. The difficulty is to find a team willing to pick up the contract for a great player who has some injury concerns and is nearing 30. But I don’t think the now penurious Pohlads will force the front office to make the trade. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

56 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Trading your best player doesn't make you better.  KG, Moss, Rod Carew, Blylevin.  Has never worked.  KAT will likely prove more of the same. Moving Correa is NOT a good idea.  Figure out how to NOT make this move.

KAT would not have been the wolves best player this year: Arguably he wouldn’t even have been 2nd most important behind Gobert and Ant. But I digress. They hopefully won’t trade Correa

[Trov]

I doubt many teams would trade for him, unless we take pennies on the dollar.  Remember 2 teams agreed to deal and balked when medicals came in.  Throw in 2 years of foot issues I doubt many teams will want to take on his risk at this point.  The only way a team would is if they knew his options would not kick in, which they do not at this point. 

He is with us for better or worse for next few years I think. 

[chpettit19]

If their goal is to outdo their spectacular failure in fan engagement from the last 11 months then they should absolutely trade Correa to save money as they go into a season where they are relying on subscriptions for TV revenue. We could safely carve Joe Pohlad's face on the Mount Rushmore of terrible businessmen if that is the decision they make.

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, kenneth frank said:

t I like the thought of moving him to 1st base

Sure, and maybe the Twins can coax Andrelton Simmons out of retirement to play ss, and we can watch him push the ball to first.🙂

[chinmusic]

Ironically, and catch-22ishly, plantar fasciitis may well keep Correa a Twin. That's great, now just increase the damn payroll.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, kenneth frank said:

Trade him? No way, but I like the thought of moving him to 1st base.

so that he becomes less valuable? His excellent offense at SS is part of why he's actually worth the contract he's signed to. And the issue with plantar fasciitis isn't going to be fixed by playing 1B.

There's a ton of factors that make trading Correa away a viable option. The no-trade clause, the contract, the injury history, are all real barriers. They significantly limit the number of teams that could deal for him (he's not waiving a no-trade without being able to control where he goes. he's just not.) which also restricts the value the twins could get in return.

Dealing Correa to take on another team's big contract that they don't want isn't exactly a great way forward for the Twins, either. And while Brooks Lee might be able to step in at SS, that position has been a problem for the Twins to lock down on a permanent basis for a long time until Correa got here. (go back and look: how many times did we have the same starting SS for more than 3 seasons in a row since Greg Gagne?)

The final kicker is this: I simply don't trust this ownership to invest the savings from moving off Correa's contract back into the roster. isn't the most likely scenario that if the Twins somehow did move Correa they'd take back $10M+ in contracts, spend $10M on 2 bargain bin FAs, and then ownership pockets the the remainder because of the decline in TV revenue? Whatever goodwill they generated from the initial Correa signing and increased payroll they threw away with this year's cuts and utter screwing of Twins viewership. I am back to being exceptionally skeptical of ownership in all things again. A position they have EARNED through action and inaction.

no to trading Correa. He's still an elite player and brings something to the table no other player in this franchise has.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Correa is more than just the player on the field, more than just the clubhouse leader, he represents the Twins efforts to win.

Fan Perception.

We talk a lot about the Twins tanking to some degree by lowering payroll and not re-investing in salary of the team.  But as long as there is the core of Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Lopez, and Ryan, there is the belief this team can be competitive.  If the Twins move Correa, they might as well trade everyone.  They would set this franchise back 3-5 years and lose whatever fan goodwill is left.  Correa demanding a trade might change that narrative a bit, but I can't see that happening in the near future.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins are capable of anything in the off-season. Depending on how they feel about the team going forward and what input the the new GM has. 

Lots of wildcards to get sorted here. 

With that said. I'd be shocked if they moved Correa. They would have to include cash or a decent prospect to make the deal. 

Always remember... The reason we got Correa in the first place was because we were the team willing to pay more than others were willing to pay.

This means most likely that no team is willing to take on his contract as it stands and I'm not sure that two seasons with significant injury down time is going to make the contract more palatable to other teams... although it does lessen the year commitment.  

This all means... that the return in a trade is minimal. 

In other words... Find other sources of raising cash if you must raise cash.  

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Here’s the statistical analysis behind Cody’s argument to support the idea.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2023/02/pay-to-play-an-analysis-of-payroll-and-performance-in-the-mlb-and-nba/
 

the thrust of the article is higher payroll = more wins, but for teams lower on the payroll list, a more evenly distributed roster salary wins more than those with salary concentrated in few players and low for most all.

As ash pointed out, how they execute matters, because dumping Correa hurts the team while more evenly distributing the salary among the team.

Richie, Thanks for providing the fascinating Harvard article, which says that MLB teams on a lower budget, should allocate their budget more evenly among the players and not sign an individual player who has to be paid 27 per cent of the annual salary allocation. However, I sure do like watching Correa play short stop.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

23 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If the Twins move Correa, they might as well trade everyone.  They would set this franchise back 3-5 years and lose whatever fan goodwill is left. 

Not to pick on you specifically…

but, as has been noted elsewhere, the Detroit Tigers “traded everyone” at the deadline this year, and it actually supercharged their performance to the point where they made up ten games in the standings on the Twins, made the playoffs, and are now one win away from advancing to the ALCS. (Where they would probably get their butts kicked by NYY, but still)

this came as a surprise to everyone, even the manager and young quant guy GM in Detroit who executed the moves to clear the way for the young guys. 

So, bottom line, we don’t really know what effects trading away Royce Lewis would have. 🙂

[Stew]

I wish we could trade him. But the only way  to get a big haul would be to trade a good prospect with  him. Or we could pay a portion of his salary. The Yankees and dodgers  wont take him the way things are.. . So it's unlikely  we  could get any other team to take him.

 

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins are capable of anything in the off-season. Depending on how they feel about the team going forward and what input the the new GM has. 

Lots of wildcards to get sorted here. 

With that said. I'd be shocked if they moved Correa. They would have to include cash or a decent prospect to make the deal. 

Always remember... The reason we got Correa in the first place was because we were the team willing to pay more than others were willing to pay.

This means most likely that no team is willing to take on his contract as it stands and I'm not sure that two seasons with significant injury down time is going to make the contract more palatable to other teams... although it does lessen the year commitment.  

This all means... that the return in a trade is minimal. 

In other words... Find other sources of raising cash if you must raise cash.  

 

FYI, Falvey has basically said they aren't hiring a GM. They don't have plans for changes in the FO or something like that is how he worded it. So it's all on him now.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, Falvey has basically said they aren't hiring a GM. They don't have plans for changes in the FO or something like that is how he worded it. So it's all on him now.

That's why Derek hasn't called me to gauge interest. I've been waiting for the phone call.

Well... if they don't hire a GM... That's a million bucks to throw into the player pool. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That's why Derek hasn't called me to gauge interest. I've been waiting for the phone call.

Well... if they don't hire a GM... That's a million bucks to throw into the player pool. 

He called me early on but I declined until I knew what the payroll situation was and he said he'd just go it alone until I decided to join up. I'll bring you in as assistant GM when I make my decision after the Pohlads sell.

[Jocko87]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Tis the silly season.  Good reminder to be away from this place for awhile.  

Dammit. 

[UK Twin]

The first question Twins need to ask before being open to a trade is how often we sign a player of this caliber in free agency? The answer - virtually never.

The injuries he's had while with the Twins are nothing to do with why the Giants and Mets pulled out of their deals - Twins always seem to have such bad luck with injuries. 

We don't need to do that much to the roster over the offseason IMO - Lopez, Ryan, Ober and SWR are locks for the rotation. Trade Paddack possibly, add another veteran arm. 

Bullpen needs a bit of work. Need to either re-sign Santana or replace him. Kepler's defense will be missed, not so much his bat. 

We've still got a play off caliber roster IMO. A dreadful September doesn't change that. Which is why keeping Correa is a no brainer. Yes, his AAV is high, but he's only got 5 guaranteed years left. We have to find a way of keeping him on the field. Buxton - we got a discount on his contract because of his injury history so you accept he has to be managed. Correa needs to be playing 80%+ of the games. But he clearly makes a huge difference when he plays.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He called me early on but I declined until I knew what the payroll situation was and he said he'd just go it alone until I decided to join up. I'll bring you in as assistant GM when I make my decision after the Pohlads sell.

You better hurry. You never when the other teams are going to call me. I had a missed call from the Rays last night.

Turned out it was two guys named Ray who share a phone. 

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You better hurry. You never when the other teams are going to call me. I had a missed call from the Rays last night.

Turned out it was two guys named Ray who share a phone. 

Well now I'm waiting on the new owners to see if we get along or not. Just keep this opportunity in mind when the Priests come calling tomorrow.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Not to pick on you specifically…

but, as has been noted elsewhere, the Detroit Tigers “traded everyone” at the deadline this year, and it actually supercharged their performance to the point where they made up ten games in the standings on the Twins, made the playoffs, and are now one win away from advancing to the ALCS. (Where they would probably get their butts kicked by NYY, but still)

this came as a surprise to everyone, even the manager and young quant guy GM in Detroit who executed the moves to clear the way for the young guys. 

So, bottom line, we don’t really know what effects trading away Royce Lewis would have. 🙂

Not taking it personally 👍

As you said, it came as a surprise.  The Tigers were an anomaly.  Got extremely hot at the right time and carried it into the playoffs.  If the Twins traded Correa specifically, or started moving their core, it could get ugly  

[David Maro]

He is not getting traded,two teams said no because of an ankle.He now has feet not foot issues as well.It is a problem the Twins are stuck with for 4 more years.And to make things worse Falvey said that he is involved in who they bring in as hitting coaches.What he should be doing is finding options to solve the problems with his feet,because he is needed on the field.You can't have your highest payed player missing half the season.

[DJL44]

Trading Correa would signal a full rebuild, which I don't think is necessary.

If they trade Correa then they should also trade Jax, Castro, Vazquez, Paddack, Buxton, Stewart and Topa. Trade everyone older than 29 with less than 3 years of team control. They should also seriously consider trading Larnach, Alcala, Jeffers, Lopez, Ober, and Ryan.

That's 14 players in total which suggests this would be a terrible idea.

[TwinsChupacabra]

Everyone has forgotten he is a cheater.  It was a mistake on so many levels to sign him.

[bean5302]

When determining whether or not to trade a player.
1. Team goal. Are you rebuilding, staying pat or seeking to improve?
2. Who replaces Correa?
3. What teams who can afford Correa need a big upgrade at SS?
4. What is Correa's trade value or how much will the Twins have to potentially eat to move him?
5. Will Correa waive his NTC to go to the potential new team?

1. Who knows what the Pohlads expect now? Trading Correa signals a rebuild strategy to me.
2. The Twins have no proven depth at SS, and the only guy on the current roster with the physical tools to play SS is Royce Lewis, who the Twins thought was so error prone they needed to move him to 2B or something?
3. The only team I was able to identify in one of the 87 topics on this issue was the Nationals.
4. I'd say the Twins are probably going to have to eat about $10MM/yr for the next 4 years of Correa's guaranteed contract.
5. Would Correa waive his NTC to play for the Nationals? Ehhhh... I don't know. The Nationals haven't been remotely competitive since winning the World Series in 2019, and I don't think anybody expects them to really be competitive next year.

[Craig Arko]

I tend to agree with those who speculate that nothing much will change until the sale happens.

[Sjoski]

17 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

The Dinged-up Duos

You should copyright that phrase and sell t-shirts or something.

[LastOnePicked]

34 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

You should copyright that phrase and sell t-shirts or something.

I hope it's clear that I really like those two. I would love to see them each have the playoff run of the careers next year. I just don't ever again expect to see either of them play 100 games a season. This team is going to have to find a way to carry them into the playoffs. And if that pressure is solely on the "cheap guys," Lewis and other young players are probably going to feel pretty irritated in the process.