Rocco Baldelli is Heading Into a Must-Win Year

[Cody Christie]

Managers become an easy target when a season ends poorly. Is Rocco Baldelli on the hot seat moving into the 2025 campaign?

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Rocco Baldelli has experienced a rollercoaster ride as the Minnesota Twins manager. From record-breaking highs to late-season collapses, his tenure is filled with moments of promise and disappointment. As fans turn their focus to the 2025 season, it’s clear that Baldelli needs to deliver results to secure his future.

2019: A Dream Debut
Baldelli couldn’t have asked for a better start to his managerial career. In 2019, the Twins won an impressive 101 games, clinching the AL Central title. Known as the "Bomba Squad," the team set a major league record for home runs in a season, with five players hitting 30 or more. Baldelli’s modern approach (emphasizing player rest and matchups) seemed to work wonders. However, the postseason was a different story. The Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS, extending their postseason losing streak, but optimism for the future was high.

2020: Success in a Shortened Season
The COVID-19 pandemic shortened the 2020 season, but the Twins still managed to win the division for the second consecutive year with a 36-24 record. Baldelli’s handling of the pitching staff and his ability to keep players fresh paid off. Yet, the Twins' playoff demons struck again. Minnesota was swept in the Wild Card round by the Houston Astros, setting the record for most consecutive postseason losses in major North American sports history. The disappointment was palpable, but it was hard to ignore Baldelli’s regular-season success in back-to-back years.

2021: The Collapse Begins
After two successful seasons, 2021 was the first significant test of Baldelli’s leadership and it was a disaster. Injuries, underperformance, and questionable decisions saw the Twins fall to a dismal 73-89 record, finishing last in the AL Central. A once-promising core, led by Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton, couldn't stay healthy or productive. The pitching staff was in shambles, and Baldelli’s tactical management came under fire. Many wondered if his reliance on analytics was leading to more harm than good, especially as players struggled to find consistency.

2022: A False Start
Heading into 2022, the Twins made bold moves, including signing Carlos Correa, and optimism was high. The team started well, leading the division for much of the season. Baldelli seemed to have regained control, but a collapse in the second half led to a disappointing 78-84 finish. Injuries, bullpen struggles, and late-game management questions resurfaced. The Twins missed the postseason for the second year in a row, and Baldelli’s seat began to warm.

2023: A Return to Form
In 2023, Baldelli and the Twins bounced back. With critical contributions from young players (Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner), the Twins once again captured the AL Central title. The pitching staff, led by Pablo López and Sonny Gray, was dominant, and Baldelli’s management of a deeper bullpen showed improvement. The Twins ended their playoff losing streak and won a postseason series for the first time since 2002. Baldelli’s position was more than secure heading into 2024.

2024: High Hopes, Bitter End
Expectations were sky-high for the Twins in 2024. With a roster built to contend, many believed this would be the year Baldelli could guide the team deep into the playoffs. However, the season was marred by injuries to key players like Correa, Buxton, and Joe Ryan, leading to inconsistency on the field. While Baldelli managed to keep the Twins competitive, they faltered late in the season and missed the playoffs, finishing in fourth place in the AL Central. Once again, questions about Baldelli’s ability to manage high-pressure situations came to the forefront.

2025 Outlook: A Must-Win Year?
With three underwhelming seasons in the last four years, 2025 feels like a make-or-break year for Baldelli. While he’s shown an ability to lead the team to successful stretches, the inability to overcome late-season collapses has defined his tenure. The Twins are clearly in a winning window, and the front office may not be as patient if another disappointing year unfolds. For Baldelli, 2025 will likely determine his fate as the Twins’ manager. The pressure is on, and anything short of a deep postseason run may signal the end of his time in Minnesota.

Is 2025 a make-or-break year for Baldelli? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[twinfan]

Every year is a must win year for a manager. Some teams allow more time if they are building towards being a contender. The Twins are in a situation where they are expected to win enough to make the playoffs but the manager can't do much if injuries hurt the team and management doesn't try to help as was the case this year when management failed to improve the team at the deadline. The manager also has limited recourse if almost the entire team falls into a slump though Rocco could have changed the lineup and maybe tried to be more aggressive, bunt more to move those runners we had and have gotten the hitting coach work harder with the entire team. He also maybe could have rested players more liberally throughout the season. Hopefully he learned that lesson as many were worn out. Rocco has had a rocky tenure and probably will be gone after 2025 or before if we don't win. To me, his biggest failures were some strange lineups with players not hitting batting too high and taking Miranda out of the lineup for a long stretch when we got healthy. That ruined his offensive ability for the rest of the season (IMHO).

[MinnesotaTwins26]

In some circumstances, this would be a must win year for many managers but after parting ways with multiple coaches and a General Manager it seems as though Baldelli's expectations will be lowered. The Twins organization isn't making Rocco's job any easier with another low payroll to work with, so I have to believe that his seat is a little cooler than believed.  I do believe that if the Twins don't make it to the playoffs this year, we may see a new manager.

[Doctor Wu]

16 minutes ago, MinnesotaTwins26 said:

The Twins organization isn't making Rocco's job any easier with another low payroll to work with

That's perhaps the biggest reason we may see Rocco beyond this season. Too many factors beyond his control that can affect the roster. But that said, I agree with the basic thrust of this article: this coming season looks like do or die for Rocco. 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree, EVERY year is a year a manager should be on the hot seat, unless you're Dave Roberts.  I don't think Rocco has any more rope because they have fired their entire set of batting coaches.  I think it makes it that much easier to clean house if there is another disappointing year like this one.  I'm really surprised that 3rd Base coach Watkins is still employed.  

If the Twins get off to a slow start in April & May we could see the hammer come down hard.  At that point Target Field will be a mausoleum and Rocco would be the convenient scapegoat.  If that is the case, and I'm Glenn Taylor, I'm calling the Pohlad's and making an offer. 

[TopGunn#22]

Maybe A-Rod and his partner would rather own the Twins...

[old nurse]

Organizational philosophy, Baldelli carried them out. He was given a right handed OF with a career track record of not being a pinch hitter.. he was given 10 different relievers that were off the scrap heap and failed.   His pre arb pitchers appeared to run out of gas or not quite ready for prime time but there was no other options. It was a recipe for failure. It is a make or break year for Hassan and Stell more than Baldelli. Casey Stengel managed 8 World Series winners as well as the team that used to have the record for most losses in a season. The manager can only work with the material they have 

[thelanges5]

I’ve always liked Rocco and he wasn’t dealt a very good hand in 2024. Joe promised a better team in 2025 so we’ll see what that means.
 

I like the use of statistics and that the FO has elevated the Twins in that area. 
 

There are a few situations in which I’d like to see them better utilized:

early inning pinchhitting - pulling your best hitters (at the time) Wallner and Larnach in the 5th for Magoo and Martin when those lineup spots come up again the in the 8th or 9th. It has become too predictable and we often see opposing managers show a lefty to get one of our guys out of the game and then go back to a righty. 

use all of the data available - we don’t want our lefties to face a lefty ever. But what if that lefty has reverse splits? Manaea is a good example of this. He has a .738 OPS versus left-handers and a .585 OPS versus right handers.

continued reliance on LH relievers when we didn’t have a good one. In almost every instance, our right handed relievers would’ve been better than our left-handed options this season.

Can/will Rocco flex his approach?

 

[Whitey333]

I am not a Rocco fan at all.  But it's hard to blame EVERYTHING on him.  This team has missed the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years.  They are not the perennial contender they keep touting themselves as.  Now with the second big late season collapse in 3 years changes need to be made and may be forthcoming.  Plus we need to find out if these young prospects on the team can play major league ball or not.  A large group of them played very poorly.  If anyone else should go I would say Falvey and St. Pete.  I'm afraid though we will roll out much the same type of team next year.  I would like Rocco and Falvey integrate more real life baseball managing with the analytics.  Strictly sticking to analytics has hurt the team.  Unfortunately, at least for me, baseball has turned into a big video game played on computers.  It's sad to see baseball dumping it's traditions for the younger fans exclusively.  Can't we have some of both?  Just asking.

[Craig Arko]

Seems likely, as this is his contract year.

[mnfireman]

Rocco will be here all season next year, the only difference is that the FO will wait until AFTER the season to determine if they want to extend him...

[Dave Borton]

Quote

While he’s shown an ability to lead the team to successful stretches, the inability to overcome late-season collapses has defined his tenure. The Twins are clearly in a winning window, and the front office may not be as patient if another disappointing year unfolds.

Context: Cleve, KC, and Detroit have shed the perennial "awful AL Central" skin and Twins appear to take it on, leaving some for the WSox.

Money will be ↓. Only upside I see are Ryan returning and rookie SPs with more experience under their belt.

Oct '25: Pohlad calls Falvey into his office and casts evil eye at Falvey. Falvey looks over his shoulder to blame Levine, notices his absence, and yells, "Baldelli." Pohlad says, "Fine. You are both gone."

[terrydactyls]

Interesting article.  The first paragraph poses a question.  The next six paragraphs provide a year-by-year history of Baldelli's tenure - with which anyone who occasionally reads Twins Daily is intimately familiar.  And the last paragraph repeats the question asked in paragraph one.  My question is:  Was there a point to this article or was it just filler because there has to be some content every day?

[BillyBallLives]

Since Baldelli is the topic here, interested in any comments on this quote by Rocco:

Has baseball changed that much, or is Rocco just looking for another excuse?

-----

 

"Having one strength that can carry you for a long time -- those strengths don’t necessarily carry you for that long anymore,” Baldelli said. “You have to keep changing with the game and we’ve always talked about adjustment-making being important, but you can’t survive and flourish in today’s game without the ability to change things on the fly, on your feet, and become a different kind of hitter.”

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, BillyBallLives said:

Since Baldelli is the topic here, interested in any comments on this quote by Rocco:

Has baseball changed that much, or is Rocco just looking for another excuse?

-----

 

"Having one strength that can carry you for a long time -- those strengths don’t necessarily carry you for that long anymore,” Baldelli said. “You have to keep changing with the game and we’ve always talked about adjustment-making being important, but you can’t survive and flourish in today’s game without the ability to change things on the fly, on your feet, and become a different kind of hitter.”

Probably should follow his own advice...

[LambchoP]

Sure, Rocco wasn't given much to work with this year,but it sure did not seem like he got the best out of the guys we had. If almost the whole team slumps for that long and has career worst marks in certain categories, some of that has to fall on the coaching.

[David Maro]

The injury excuse really is getting old,both Atlanta and Cleveland lost pitching and players.Guess what they made the playoffs.Both the Mets and Cleveland have rookie managers and are in the playoffs.Rocco has zero imagination,how many times do you have to see a player fail as a PHer.The analytics can't be the end all be all.The organization has a poor plan for success and will not make any improvement with Rocco at the helm.

[BillyBallLives]

2 hours ago, David Maro said:

The analytics can't be the end all be all.The organization has a poor plan for success and will not make any improvement with Rocco at the helm

Twins should just hire a 5th grader with a laptop and let AI tell him what to do. 

[bean5302]

Falvey has pretty much tied himself to Baldelli the way Gardy tied himself to Anderson. The Pohlads haven't demanded accountability in a long time, and it took them a very, very long time to move on from Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire previously.

It feels like Jim Pohlad (the actual owner) is aging into his father. Miser on payroll, nepotism and cronyism with no accountability in management/front office leadership. It's really infuriating to see the ownership act so unbelievably entitled to money.

Like watching the big oil execs in an investigation on price fixing with the US Senate many years ago where oil execs basically said, we're going to charge whatever we want, and if you increase taxes to hurt our pocketbook, we'll just raise prices to make ourselves whole again. Jim Pohlad feels entitled to revenue.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, BillyBallLives said:

Since Baldelli is the topic here, interested in any comments on this quote by Rocco:

Has baseball changed that much, or is Rocco just looking for another excuse?

-----

 

"Having one strength that can carry you for a long time -- those strengths don’t necessarily carry you for that long anymore,” Baldelli said. “You have to keep changing with the game and we’ve always talked about adjustment-making being important, but you can’t survive and flourish in today’s game without the ability to change things on the fly, on your feet, and become a different kind of hitter.”

How about Rocco changes his all analytics, lefty-righty platoon, can't face a line-up 3 times rigidity in his managerial approach.

[Blyleven2011]

As long as the topic is about Rocco Baldelli  ...

A dream debut , I wish everyone  would stop with the praises in his first year  as manager , get it right , he didn't manage during that season because  the players had career years  , all he did was make out a lineup to present to the umpire  .. then in his dream debut as manager of the 2019 he had to manage and he and the FO  failed miserably  ...

Rocco still had the Bomba squad in 2020 and did okay ...

2021 -22 was just aweful , Rocco doesn't seem to take his job seriously  as a manager , he is also a coach and his duties are to take the talent and keeping teaching the players to be a better talent  , he and his coaches fail ...

2023 , finally  we have pitching and the pitchers are allowed to go more than 5 innings  , pitching wins games and makes a managers job easier , it was a bad start but a great finish ....

2024 , the writing on the wall was written during the offseason  , we had okay starting  pitching ( bullpen on paper was solid but didnt meet the challenge ) , but more of the same ,  our lineup was not fun to watch and defense got worse as the season yet along , again Rocco and coaches did not take the talent they had and make that talent better , there were a few sophomore slumps to start the season and it was also a slow start for alot of the players except Jeffers  ... 

They get off to slow starts because it seems the twins play mostly the rookies or prospects in spring training game , the veterans work out but don't get much game time action to prepare for the season  , ( restting players doesn't seem to keep our players off the injured list )  ....

2025 I don't see much of change unless he will implement  more strategies of old school technics along with his analytics  and more emphasis on defense and fundamentals  ...

I've heard Rocco  say he expects his players to be ready to play , but no batting practice or infield / outfield practice is required , boy look how the team performed in 2024 , if Rocco  can't see the players weren't prepped before the game and ready to play  , he better start the season with a new prescription  , 

I hope Rocco won't be an embarrassment   again in 2025  , i want exciting competitive baseball ,   ( win or lose ) ...

It's along off season  , I hope the 3 ghost of Christmas visit the pohlads , Front office and Rocco  at Christmas and they see the light and can give us a happy new year  ...

[Linus]

2025 is going to be make or break for a whole bunch of people from the FO to the field. 

[MGM4706]

He is safe as long as Jim Pohlad is in charge. Cheap and does what he is told and keeps his mouth shut. Perfect Manager for Falvey and Pohlad.

And saying he doesn't have the players doesn't explain the players he does have throwing to the wrong bases, not running the bases properly and not knowing how to play the wall. Those are all things Rocco has not fixed!!

[LastOnePicked]

This team has many problems, but Rocco is one of them and a significant one. It would have been much wiser to fire him, because ...

If the roster the Twins field in 2025 truly does have a chance for a postseason run in 2025, then now is the perfect time to see what a new manager can do with this club. Will the play be more fundamentally sound? Less of a laissez faire attitude in the clubhouse? Better use of relievers and pinch hitters? More clutch performances? We've already seen how far Rocco can take a winning club in October, and it's not  far. Why not see if another coach can take them farther?

Or, if the roster in 2025 isn't built for success, now is a good time to audition a new staff. Don't be afraid to rotate the position for a few years, if needed. Get a feel for who communicates well. Let a new manager get started on the ground floor with a rebuilding or retooling team.

I'm glad that there seems to be general consensus that this should be Rocco's last chance, but I'm hoping there will be some urgency and some fan pressure for a change if/when this team is in 4th or fifth place come June. When this team's chance does come again, Rocco is clearly not the person to get them to the next level. The sooner the organization realizes this, the better.

[LastOnePicked]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

2025 is going to be make or break for a whole bunch of people from the FO to the field. 

You're assuming that this organization believes in consequences. Not a safe assumption. 

Excuses they're great at. Top 5 in baseball. Consequences, no.

[LastOnePicked]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I hope the 3 ghost of Christmas visit the pohlads , Front office and Rocco  at Christmas and they see the light and can give us a happy new year

"Look through that window, Joe. That's Tiny Tim. He thought the Twins were going to make the playoffs again this year. He thought he'd maybe see his favorite team grab a few free agent pitchers, build off their 2024 postseason and make a run at a title. He may not see another year after 2025, Joe. If these trends continue, I see an empty little seat at Target Field. Actually, I see lots of empty seats."

[Karbo]

This tend we see under Rocco of late season collapses are what I see as Rocco's biggest problem. I don't know how to fix it. An answer may lie in the construction of his lineups. I think the Twins must have been at the top of the league for different lineups this year. Also, you would think when you see something just isn't working, like Margot pinch hitting, or even the heavy reliance on analytics vs "gut", maybe try changing?

[farmerguychris]

18 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

You're assuming that this organization believes in consequences. Not a safe assumption. 

Excuses they're great at. Top 5 in baseball. Consequences, no.

Sure there are consequences - just not the kind that the fans care about.  There are consequences for not making enough money (the Pohlad's only priority), payroll cuts and Front Office jobs left vacant.  

[The Great Hambino]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

This tend we see under Rocco of late season collapses are what I see as Rocco's biggest problem. I don't know how to fix it. An answer may lie in the construction of his lineups. I think the Twins must have been at the top of the league for different lineups this year. Also, you would think when you see something just isn't working, like Margot pinch hitting, or even the heavy reliance on analytics vs "gut", maybe try changing?

The Twins used 154 different lineups this year, which sounds ... high.

But it wasn't too out of line compared to the AL playoff teams.

Yankees used 106 different lineups, which was the fewest by far of the AL playoff teams.  Having two hitters that were A) in the top 5 in all of baseball and B) healthy all year in Judge and Soto locking down two spots I'm sure had a lot to do with cutting down on the lineup permutations.  If they were each only healthy for half the season - and the healthy times didn't overlap much - they'd have used more lineups out of necessity.

The Royals used 137.  Everyone else in the playoffs used at least 144.  The Tigers - that team with the manager everyone here wishes the Twins had and the payroll the Pohlads wish the Twins had - used 155 different lineups

Right, wrong, or indifferent, a fixed inflexible lineup just isn't something that happens in today's game.  Back in the days of 10 man pitching staffs and no DH, there were 7 bench spots to cover for 8 spots in the order.  Now there are 4 to cover 9.  With the apparent increase in injuries in today's game, teams have to dip into that shorter bench more often.  All this requires more flexibility, which is naturally going to result in more lineups.  The Twins are on the high side for sure, but not as out of line as it might seem, and I'd argue driven at least partially by the injuries the guys you'd ideally build a lineup around in Buxton and Correa (throw Lewis in there too if you'd like)