Cleveland to Boston: Breaking Down the Biggest Road Trip of the Twins Season

[Nick Nelson]

Fresh off a 3-3 home stand, the Minnesota Twins are heading out on a seven-game road trip that figures to have massive implications for their fate. They'll have their work cut out for them as they try to hang on for their postseason lives.

Buckle up and get ready with this primer. 

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Twins are in Cleveland this week for four games against the division-leading Guardians and then off to Boston for three against the Red Sox, who are 4 ½ games behind Minnesota in pursuit of the third and final wild-card spot.

Neither of these series will carry the weight or magnitude we once thought they might. The Twins have fallen 6 ½ games behind the Guardians in the Central, so overcoming Cleveland for a division title is no longer really in play, even with a sweep. Meanwhile, Boston is almost hopelessly out of postseason contention, with FanGraphs giving them less than a 3% chance to get in. 

Still, these are going to be very, very important games for all parties involved. There are plenty of interesting stories and subplots to follow as we look ahead to some of the highest-leverage regular-season baseball you'll encounter. Here are some that I'll be keeping an eye on.

The Battle for the Number One Seed
The Guardians and Yankees are neck-and-neck for the top seed in the American League, with New York currently ahead by one game. That matters to those teams because with the #1 seed comes home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It matters to the Twins because, as #6 seed, whoever finishes with the best record in the AL would fall on their side of the postseason bracket. They'd be next line if the Twins are able to get in and get past Houston. 

So it's a little ironic. The more the Twins beat Cleveland, the more they increase the likelihood of having go through Houston AND New York in order to reach the ALCS.

The Best-Case Scenario
While I'm basically treating it as a given that the Twins will be the sixth seed if they make the playoffs, there is a still a reasonable possibility of overtaking Kansas City for the second wild card. Having won seven of 13 head-to-head matchups this year, Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over the Royals, so they're effectively only two games behind KC in the standings.

The difference between getting in as the second or third wild card is not terrible significant; you're going on the road for a best-of-three series either way, and I'm not sure Baltimore is all that preferable of an opponent versus Houston. But the reason I call it a best-case scenario is because, if the Twins can take three or even four against Cleveland, they'll push the Guards toward the second seed while potentially elevating toward the #5 seed themselves. 

That would mean the path to the ALCS goes through Baltimore and Cleveland, instead of Houston and New York. And if they were to face the Royals in the ALCS, Minnesota would get home-field advantage. The best layout you could ask for, at this juncture.

Of course, in addition to the Twins getting it done in Cleveland, gaining ground requires that Kansas City lose it. As it happens, the Royals are hosting the Tigers over the next three days. So if the Twins are winning games in Cleveland and not gaining ground on Kansas City, they're creating it between themselves and Detroit.

Boston's Last Gasp
The Red Sox, as mentioned, are down but not out. They need to pass three teams to get into the postseason picture, but having three games lined up at home against the club atop that pecking order gives them some measure of control over their destiny. 

If Minnesota fares poorly against Guardians, and the Red Sox win or sweep their next series (three games at Tampa), it's possible Boston could be in position to surpass Minnesota with a sweep over the weekend. In doing so, they'd also secure a tiebreaker over the Twins, against whom the Red Sox are 1-2 so far this season.

Needless to say, this version of things is pretty much the worst-case scenario for the Twins.

Pablo Goes Twice
In mapping out pitching probables for this road trip, the most encouraging news is that Pablo López is scheduled start twice: the first game of the Cleveland series, and the second game of the Boston series. The Twins will be able to maximize the impact of their ace in the most critical stretch of the season.

And make no mistake, López has been pitching like an ace. Nine of his past 10 starts have been of the "quality" variety, During that span, which dates back to the All-Star break, he's 7-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He's pitched at least into the seventh inning in four straight turns, and lately has flashed some of the very best stuff of his career. 

López inspires a great of confidence right now and the Twins will have him on the mound for two of their seven games this week. Huge.

 

Zebby's Big Test
The other pitcher who is lined up to make two starts on this road trip inspires considerably less confidence, but that's not to say he isn't capable of coming through. Zebby Matthews is slated to get the nod on Tuesday and Sunday. The stakes will be extremely high and there's a level of urgency for Twins starters to pitch somewhat deep, thus lessening the bullpen's burden amid a stretch of 10 games with no break.

It's a monumental ask of a 24-year-old who hadn't pitched above Single-A as of May. But Matthews has earned this opportunity through his stellar performance in the minors, and he's occasionally shown flashes during his six starts in the majors. The 27-to-5 K/BB ratio in 25 innings is undoubtedly impressive. The question is, can Matthews keep the ball in the park and hold his own after a time or two through the order? 

The Correa and Buxton Factors
The Twins activated both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa in recent days, giving both a bit of playing time in the weekend series against Cincinnati – likely with an eye toward being as ready as they can for this road trip. How much will they play? How effective will they be? The uncertainty surrounding the team's two best players makes it hard to know what to expect from the Twins, but their mere presence has game-changing potential.

If Correa and Buxton are able to look relatively good while helping lift the Twins to some wins in Cleveland and Boston, it will not only help propel Minnesota to the playoffs, but will bode very well for their chances if they get there.

Royce Returns to Progressive
The slump being experienced by Royce Lewis, who has homered just once in the past month, has been a major factor in Minnesota's slide. It's been strange to watch the famed clutch performer wilt during the most critical stretch of the season, while admitting that he's drained and searching for a second wind. 

Maybe returning to the site of some memorable past success will serve Lewis will. He's only played three games at Progressive Field, but he's dominated in them, going 5-for-11 with one of last year's most unforgettable highlights: a grand slam off Lucas Giolito that effectively clinched the division for Minnesota.

 

Battle of the Bullpens
The top four most valuable relievers in the major leagues, according to FanGraphs and its Wins Above Replacement metric?

1. Cade Smith, CLE (2.4)
2. Mason Miller, OAK (2.4)
3. Griffin Jax, MIN (2.3)
4. Emmanuel Clase, CLE (2.1)

Smith and Clase have been instrumental in Cleveland's success this year, and the same is true of Jax and the Twins. I'm eager to see these premier bullpen arms showcased here in the biggest moments of the season, in what promise to be close and competitive games. That tends to be the case when these two teams meet – all but one of their nine games this year have been decided by three runs or fewer. 

How are you feeling about this week's high-stakes road trip? Which storylines will you be watching most closely? Sound off in the comments!

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Play ball !

[LambchoP]

I think the results of both series are going to depend on how well our bullpen is managed and how well they pitch. Over the last few weeks it seems the only starting pitchers that are going more than 3 or 4 innings are Lopez and Ober. That means each start by Zebby, SWR and Festa is basically a bullpen game, which really wipes out a lot of relievers for the rest of the series. It's nice Buxton and Correa are back, but if they are only going to play 1 out of every 3 games or so, can we really expect them to save our lineup? Kepler coming back instills even less confidence the way he's been hitting this year. If we sneak in as the third wild card, I'm expecting an embarrassing blowout sweep against HOU.

[Doctor Gast]

These 2 series are going to be very tough. CLE will want to gain #1 seed so they aren't going to take it easy on us, plus BOS is fired up & wants to get in the playoffs, while both teams will have home-field advantage & the stadiums will be packed. Playing these 2 teams will be nothing like LAA & CIN (who had nothing to play for) at home yet struggled.

MIA will not be a pushover like they were to begin the season. So a sweep isn't going to be automatic, And BAL will have a lot to play for, they'll want to win the division & get a bye,

[Blyleven2011]

Going up against teams with a winning record hasn't been a good recipe for success  ...

Going up against teams with a losing record hasn't been a good recipe for success  for over a month ...

Am I confident  , I'll talk to you after game 162  ...

[tampatwins]

I hate to be this guy, but if you’re looking to avoid the Yankees til the ALCS (provided we get in as the 6), we should be rooting for Cleveland to finish as the 2. They don’t reseed after each round like football; therefore, if we are the 6, we take out Houston, then we play the 2, not the 1. If we get the 5 seed and beat Baltimore, we’d go to NYY. 
 

let’s just get in first 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Zebby pitching twice on this road trip. Oofda! That's not on him. He's a rookie. Should be in AAA right now. Not on Rocco or even the front office. No one has a choice here. The Pohlad's had a choice. And they opted to pinch pennies instead of upgrading the rotation.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Also, series like Cleveland and Boston - this is where you need your best players to show up...looking specifically at: Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Pablo, Ober.

Games like these are why Correa is here. He won't disappoint (if his foot holds up).

[mickster]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I think the results of both series are going to depend on how well our bullpen is managed and how well they pitch. Over the last few weeks it seems the only starting pitchers that are going more than 3 or 4 innings are Lopez and Ober. That means each start by Zebby, SWR and Festa is basically a bullpen game, which really wipes out a lot of relievers for the rest of the series. It's nice Buxton and Correa are back, but if they are only going to play 1 out of every 3 games or so, can we really expect them to save our lineup? Kepler coming back instills even less confidence the way he's been hitting this year. If we sneak in as the third wild card, I'm expecting an embarrassing blowout sweep against HOU.

the St, Paul shuttle may be busy with the backend of the rotation relying on them 

[jjswol]

Ideally the Twins need to sweep the Guards but that is unlikely. They need to at least win 3 of 4 in order to keep their quickly dimming wild card hopes alive. Anything less than 3 wins is almost a disaster with the season end just around the corner.

[DJL44]

3-4 might be enough on this road trip if KC and Baltimore take care of Detroit.

I don't think this race will be decided until the final weekend.

[Karbo]

Just find a way to win, and you're in!

[CRF]

149 games in the books, and these next 7 will most likely decide if we get into the dance...or start getting ready for a long cold winter of discontent.  If this team has any fight in them at all, this is the time to show it. That means EVEYONE! From the manager on down. We can't go into Cleveland and let them kick our a** again. We're 2-7 against Cleveland this season. We can't have any more of that sh*t. We're 2-1 so far against Boston, and we probably have to go 2-1 in this upcoming series too. This is put up or shut up time. Get some fire in your bellies! C'mon Twins...show us what you got!

[bean5302]

It doesn't seem like Sim, Zebby or Festa have any leash with Baldelli right now. Give up a couple hits in a row after going 3 scoreless innings, get yanked, often followed by a "bullpen blowup." I'm not sure how the Twins' bullpen is going to hang in there much longer given their own struggles.

The Twins rank 23rd in MLB over the past month in innings pitched by starters. It gets worse when looking at September. The Twins are averaging a miserable 4.2 IP per start. If Baldelli is going to have the quick hook setting to maximum, it might be better to place a guy like Boushley onto the 26 man to eat innings. He should still have gas in the tank whereas Plutko is injured, Dobnak has thrown more innings than any of his last 5 seasons. Morris, SWR, Festa, and Matthews have all blown through their max career innings pitched. But, calling up a guy who hasn't earned the opportunity isn't exactly ideal in a desperate playoff struggle.

Glad Lopez was able to sort out his poor performance into the middle of the season and turn into a dominant arm, and that Ober was able to balance out his luck with just a single horrifying game and one bad one.

To have the bats be so inconsistent lately. This team is really a mess. No worse than the Red Sox, though. What a mess.

[chpettit19]

57 minutes ago, mickster said:

the St, Paul shuttle may be busy with the backend of the rotation relying on them 

Anyone you send down at this point in the season is done for the year. A demoted pitcher has to be down for 15 days unless replacing an injured player. If they've been carrying someone they don't think is one of their 14 best arms for the last couple weeks they've been doing things terribly wrong. Not a lot of room for shuttle moves from here on out. 

[Muppet]

If the Tigers continue on their 7-3 pace over the rest of the season, the Twins will only have to win 5 of their remaining 13. Can they do it? We shall wait and see. 

[mickster]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Anyone you send down at this point in the season is done for the year. A demoted pitcher has to be down for 15 days unless replacing an injured player. If they've been carrying someone they don't think is one of their 14 best arms for the last couple weeks they've been doing things terribly wrong. Not a lot of room for shuttle moves from here on out. 

Yep - realized that after the fact................Can't afford short starts from Pablo or Bailey  as only 1 day off left.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

15 minutes ago, Muppet said:

If the Tigers continue on their 7-3 pace over the rest of the season, the Twins will only have to win 5 of their remaining 13. Can they do it? We shall wait and see. 

Three games against the Marlins - those are must wins. Gives them a little cushion this week and the last 3 against Baltimore.

[Riverbrian]

It's real simple... Just win. Doesn't matter who you play. Just win baseball games for this 13 games stretch run. Don't care if its Cleveland or the White Sox. Just win. 

Kansas City vs Detroit is a big matchup for the Twins. If either of those teams sweep each other it's potentially a game changer in our race... if... if,,, we can get some W's while it's happening.

If we get some W's against Cleveland while Detroit sweeps KC. It pulls us tighter with KC to make the Royals the team that Seattle or Detroit could catch.

If KC sweeps Detroit... while we win... it takes Detroit out or at least close to the edge but Seattle still remains and KC gets a stronger grasp on the 5 spot keeping us as that last horse for horses to catch. 

Nothing matters if Cleveland manhandles the Twins in this series. Detroit will pull past us or KC will cement the 5 spot. With sweeps by either squad.  

Only one thing matters. W's... the Twins just need to win baseball games. Don't be that horse in the money on the home stretch that fades to 7th in it's last steps. 

[jmlease1]

42 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It doesn't seem like Sim, Zebby or Festa have any leash with Baldelli right now. Give up a couple hits in a row after going 3 scoreless innings, get yanked, often followed by a "bullpen blowup." I'm not sure how the Twins' bullpen is going to hang in there much longer given their own struggles.
 

Is it no leash, or they're just running too far out on it? If they're needing 20+ pitches to get through every inning, then no, they're not lasting out there.

• Festa 72 pitches and 3 BBs in 3 2/3
• SWR 69 pitches and 3 BBs in 3 
• Zebby 61 pitches and 2 BBs in 3 1/3

They haven't exactly been efficient lately. Festa's the only one who has done 3 scoreless to start.

but this is also the Kobayashi Maru for the manager: if he leaves Festa, SWR, or Matthews out there as their pitch counts rise and they wobble through innings and they get hammered, he's a fool for not pulling them sooner as they "obviously" didn't have it; if he yanks them before they collapse and the bullpen fails, he's a fool for not rising with his starter.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Zebby pitching twice on this road trip. Oofda! That's not on him. He's a rookie. Should be in AAA right now. Not on Rocco or even the front office. No one has a choice here. The Pohlad's had a choice. And they opted to pinch pennies instead of upgrading the rotation.

Thus Cole Irvin.

[bean5302]

57 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Is it no leash, or they're just running too far out on it? If they're needing 20+ pitches to get through every inning, then no, they're not lasting out there.

• Festa 72 pitches and 3 BBs in 3 2/3
• SWR 69 pitches and 3 BBs in 3 
• Zebby 61 pitches and 2 BBs in 3 1/3

They haven't exactly been efficient lately. Festa's the only one who has done 3 scoreless to start.

but this is also the Kobayashi Maru for the manager: if he leaves Festa, SWR, or Matthews out there as their pitch counts rise and they wobble through innings and they get hammered, he's a fool for not pulling them sooner as they "obviously" didn't have it; if he yanks them before they collapse and the bullpen fails, he's a fool for not rising with his starter.

Starters are generally expected to pitch 90-100ish pitches, but pitchers who have rough innings throw more pitches in those rough innings. The bullpen is not good. Baldelli is pulling these 3 pitchers early at 60-70 pitches in close games where they haven't allowed many runs. They are not given the opportunity to work through trouble for better or worse.

In general, you should expect about 15 pitches per inning. Festa was a little inefficient, but he's not an efficient pitcher in general. Sim had one really tough inning and was racking up the pitches again in the 4th. Matthews had a terrible first inning, but was doing well in terms of efficiency after that.
Festa (19), (12), (17), (18) yanked 3.2 IP, score 0-2
SWR (19), (9), (28), (13) yanked 3.0 IP, score 1-0
Matthews (28), (16), (8), (9), yanked 3.1 IP, score 1-2

Either they're starters or they're not. The Twins' move today of claiming Irvin today seems to say the Twins don't think at least one of these guys is rotation worthy right now.

You've seemingly built an invincible defense for Baldelli. He is not to be questioned because no matter the decision he makes, they will all lead to the same outcome. I don't know how many people would hold Baldelli accountable for his pitcher not getting through 4 innings without getting knocked around, especially given the weak bullpen, but I'm not one of them.

[JCT66]

4 hours ago, jjswol said:

Ideally the Twins need to sweep the Guards but that is unlikely. They need to at least win 3 of 4 in order to keep their quickly dimming wild card hopes alive. Anything less than 3 wins is almost a disaster with the season end just around the corner.

2-2 against Cleveland will leave them in good shape.  I think 6-7 over the last 4 series gets them in.  If they do that the Tigers or the Mariners would have to go 9-3 which seems unlikely with series against the Royals and Orioles (for the Tigers) and Yankees and Astros (for the Mariners).  If necessary, Ober and Lopez can each be able to pitch 3 more times.  

Any kind of reversion to the mean offensively should allow for 6-7.

[thelanges5]

Not a good start tonight. The wheels have really fallen off since that loss in Texas. 
 

Still have hope but it is definitely waning. 

[Yawn Gardenhose]

Quote

The Guardians and Yankees are neck-and-neck for the top seed in the American League, with New York currently ahead by one game. That matters to those teams because with the #1 seed comes home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It matters to the Twins because, as #6 seed, whoever finishes with the best record in the AL would fall on their side of the postseason bracket. They'd be next line if the Twins are able to get in and get past Houston. 

This is flatly wrong. The #1 seed automatically plays the winner of the #4/#5 wild card series. The #2 seed automatically plays the winner of the #3/#6 wild card series. There is no re-seeding after the wild card round, just one of several flagrant flaws in the current postseason format. 

[DJL44]

Boston is out of the race but they could still be a spoiler