Griffin Jax Has a Strong Case as Twins MVP

A bad bullpen that constantly blows late leads can be demoralizing. Twins fans have lived through it in the past, and other franchises have had it much worse over the years. (Paging the Philadelphia Phillies.) When relievers melt down in crunch time, it can erase strong starts and big offensive performances, derailing an otherwise quality team and sending fans into a state of apoplectic anger. We got a small taste courtesy of Jorge Alcala on Sunday, but thankfully those have been somewhat rare. 

On the other hand, when relief pitchers excel, it tends to go largely unnoticed. It's like a great offensive line or a clean NBA reffing performance – they simply did their job, and played their part. But given the alternative scenario, and what happens when they don't get the job done, those consistently good relievers probably deserve a little more appreciation.

With that in mind, we've gotta give Griffin Jax his flowers. This dude has been an indispensable asset for the Twins this year, and yet I suspect many fans wouldn't even put him in their top five when asked to name the team's most valuable player. 

That's reasonable enough. Several Twins players have been worth more WAR this year. Jax has thrown less than 5% of the staff's total innings. There have been plenty of flashier performances: All-Star first halves from Carlos Correa and Willi Castro, an ace-like run from Bailey Ober, Byron Buxton's resurgent campaign, Carlos Santana's clutch theatrics. Even among relievers, Durán has a solid case with his 3.35 ERA and team-leading 2.14 WPA since joining the team.

But all of these players have either missed time with injury or experienced dramatic rises and falls in performance. Jax has been nails all year long, handling high-leverage spots and acing imposing assignments with some of the best stuff and results of any reliever in baseball.

Jax ranks fifth among all major-league relievers in fWAR. He has a 1.82 ERA in 56 appearances, and his 2.33 xERA ranks in the 99th percentile for MLB pitchers. He's striking out 33% of opposing hitters, and holding opponents to a .177/.228/.271 slash line.

These impressive numbers become all the more so when you consider the circumstances and context in which they've been produced. There are two key factors that help make the case for Jax as Minnesota's most valuable individual player so far this season.

He has been a steady force all year in a bullpen that's gone through turbulence.
Durán missed the first month of the season and hasn't quite looked like his usual self since returning. Caleb Thielbar missed the first two weeks and has been far worse. Brock Stewart made it through only that one month before going down, essentially, for the season. At no point has Jax been accompanied by the full complement of his planned high-leverage counterparts, but he's been there to take the ball in important spots at all times.

Unlike last year, when he had a couple of luck-driven downswings, Jax hasn't really gone through a slump. He gave up a single run in three consecutive outings back in early May (all victories for the Twins) but that's the closest thing. Since that stretch he has allowed just five total earned runs in 37 appearances – a 1.23 ERA. 

He has routinely carved through the meat of opposing lineups with games on the line.
This is the biggest thing for me. It's somewhat reflected in his WPA (second-highest on the team after Durán, 23rd among MLB relievers) but not entirely, because that metric doesn't account for the quality of opponents being faced. Rocco Baldelli knows Jax is his best reliever and he uses him as such, sending the righty out to take on an opposing lineup's best hitters with slim late-game leads constantly. 

To illustrate this, let's review Jax's eight appearances in the month of August. The Twins have won all but one of these games, contributing to an 11-6 month so far that has enabled them to gain  4 ½ games on Cleveland in the standings, with Jax playing a critical role.

• Aug 2 vs CWS: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 4-2, to face 9-1-2 hitters. Retires them in order.
• Aug 3 vs CWS: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 3-2, facing 9-1-2 hitters. Allows leadoff single and then sets down three straight.
• Aug 5 vs CHC: Jax enters in ninth inning, with Twins ahead 3-0, facing 3-4-5 hitters. Allows one single in a scoreless inning, picks up the save.
• Aug 9 vs CLE: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 4-2, facing 2-3-4 hitters. Retires the side in order.
• Aug 12 vs KC: Jax enters in seventh inning, with Twins ahead 6-3, facing 9-1-2 hitters. Allows leadoff single and then sets down three straight.
• Aug 15 vs TEX: Jax enters in seventh inning, with game tied, facing 2-3-4 hitters. Allows one single in a scoreless inning.
• Aug 16 vs TEX: Jax enters in eighth inning, with Twins ahead 4-3, facing 4-5-6 hitters. Retires them in order.
• Augt 18 vs TEX: Jax enters in ninth inning, with game tied, facing 2-3-4 hitters. Retires them in order.

Jax doesn't really get a break. Whereas Durán might luck his way a soft part of the lineup occasionally, if say the bottom of the order happens to be due up for a save situation, Jax goes against the top and middle of opposing lineups pretty much exclusively. He's facing the guys that the other teams wants up in these spots, and he's putting them down.

Late in spring training, after we'd watched Jax dominate Grapefruit competition with his otherworldly sweeper and also learned that Durán and Thielbar would open on the injured list, I wondered if we would see the Air Force Captain take command in the Twins bullpen, fulfilling his potential as its best member.

He's done exactly that. And as a result, while I'm not sure he'd be at the top of my team MVP ballot here as we near the end of August, he would definitely be pretty close.