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The Twins are in Cleveland this week for four games against the division-leading Guardians and then off to Boston for three against the Red Sox, who are 4 ½ games behind Minnesota in pursuit of the third and final wild-card spot.
Neither of these series will carry the weight or magnitude we once thought they might. The Twins have fallen 6 ½ games behind the Guardians in the Central, so overcoming Cleveland for a division title is no longer really in play, even with a sweep. Meanwhile, Boston is almost hopelessly out of postseason contention, with FanGraphs giving them less than a 3% chance to get in.
Still, these are going to be very, very important games for all parties involved. There are plenty of interesting stories and subplots to follow as we look ahead to some of the highest-leverage regular-season baseball you'll encounter. Here are some that I'll be keeping an eye on.
The Battle for the Number One Seed
The Guardians and Yankees are neck-and-neck for the top seed in the American League, with New York currently ahead by one game. That matters to those teams because with the #1 seed comes home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It matters to the Twins because, as #6 seed, whoever finishes with the best record in the AL would fall on their side of the postseason bracket. They'd be next line if the Twins are able to get in and get past Houston.
So it's a little ironic. The more the Twins beat Cleveland, the more they increase the likelihood of having go through Houston AND New York in order to reach the ALCS.
The Best-Case Scenario
While I'm basically treating it as a given that the Twins will be the sixth seed if they make the playoffs, there is a still a reasonable possibility of overtaking Kansas City for the second wild card. Having won seven of 13 head-to-head matchups this year, Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over the Royals, so they're effectively only two games behind KC in the standings.
The difference between getting in as the second or third wild card is not terrible significant; you're going on the road for a best-of-three series either way, and I'm not sure Baltimore is all that preferable of an opponent versus Houston. But the reason I call it a best-case scenario is because, if the Twins can take three or even four against Cleveland, they'll push the Guards toward the second seed while potentially elevating toward the #5 seed themselves.
That would mean the path to the ALCS goes through Baltimore and Cleveland, instead of Houston and New York. And if they were to face the Royals in the ALCS, Minnesota would get home-field advantage. The best layout you could ask for, at this juncture.
Of course, in addition to the Twins getting it done in Cleveland, gaining ground requires that Kansas City lose it. As it happens, the Royals are hosting the Tigers over the next three days. So if the Twins are winning games in Cleveland and not gaining ground on Kansas City, they're creating it between themselves and Detroit.
Boston's Last Gasp
The Red Sox, as mentioned, are down but not out. They need to pass three teams to get into the postseason picture, but having three games lined up at home against the club atop that pecking order gives them some measure of control over their destiny.
If Minnesota fares poorly against Guardians, and the Red Sox win or sweep their next series (three games at Tampa), it's possible Boston could be in position to surpass Minnesota with a sweep over the weekend. In doing so, they'd also secure a tiebreaker over the Twins, against whom the Red Sox are 1-2 so far this season.
Needless to say, this version of things is pretty much the worst-case scenario for the Twins.
Pablo Goes Twice
In mapping out pitching probables for this road trip, the most encouraging news is that Pablo López is scheduled start twice: the first game of the Cleveland series, and the second game of the Boston series. The Twins will be able to maximize the impact of their ace in the most critical stretch of the season.
And make no mistake, López has been pitching like an ace. Nine of his past 10 starts have been of the "quality" variety, During that span, which dates back to the All-Star break, he's 7-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He's pitched at least into the seventh inning in four straight turns, and lately has flashed some of the very best stuff of his career.
López inspires a great of confidence right now and the Twins will have him on the mound for two of their seven games this week. Huge.
Zebby's Big Test
The other pitcher who is lined up to make two starts on this road trip inspires considerably less confidence, but that's not to say he isn't capable of coming through. Zebby Matthews is slated to get the nod on Tuesday and Sunday. The stakes will be extremely high and there's a level of urgency for Twins starters to pitch somewhat deep, thus lessening the bullpen's burden amid a stretch of 10 games with no break.
It's a monumental ask of a 24-year-old who hadn't pitched above Single-A as of May. But Matthews has earned this opportunity through his stellar performance in the minors, and he's occasionally shown flashes during his six starts in the majors. The 27-to-5 K/BB ratio in 25 innings is undoubtedly impressive. The question is, can Matthews keep the ball in the park and hold his own after a time or two through the order?
The Correa and Buxton Factors
The Twins activated both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa in recent days, giving both a bit of playing time in the weekend series against Cincinnati – likely with an eye toward being as ready as they can for this road trip. How much will they play? How effective will they be? The uncertainty surrounding the team's two best players makes it hard to know what to expect from the Twins, but their mere presence has game-changing potential.
If Correa and Buxton are able to look relatively good while helping lift the Twins to some wins in Cleveland and Boston, it will not only help propel Minnesota to the playoffs, but will bode very well for their chances if they get there.
Royce Returns to Progressive
The slump being experienced by Royce Lewis, who has homered just once in the past month, has been a major factor in Minnesota's slide. It's been strange to watch the famed clutch performer wilt during the most critical stretch of the season, while admitting that he's drained and searching for a second wind.
Maybe returning to the site of some memorable past success will serve Lewis will. He's only played three games at Progressive Field, but he's dominated in them, going 5-for-11 with one of last year's most unforgettable highlights: a grand slam off Lucas Giolito that effectively clinched the division for Minnesota.
Battle of the Bullpens
The top four most valuable relievers in the major leagues, according to FanGraphs and its Wins Above Replacement metric?
- Cade Smith, CLE (2.4)
- Mason Miller, OAK (2.4)
- Griffin Jax, MIN (2.3)
- Emmanuel Clase, CLE (2.1)
Smith and Clase have been instrumental in Cleveland's success this year, and the same is true of Jax and the Twins. I'm eager to see these premier bullpen arms showcased here in the biggest moments of the season, in what promise to be close and competitive games. That tends to be the case when these two teams meet – all but one of their nine games this year have been decided by three runs or fewer.
How are you feeling about this week's high-stakes road trip? Which storylines will you be watching most closely? Sound off in the comments!
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