The Positive Spin On Max Kepler's Impending Departure

[Cody Pirkl]

Max Kepler has had a long and successful career with the Twins and is set to hit free agency in 2025. Change can be difficult, but there are several reasons to believe the Twins will benefit from Kepler’s likely departure this offseason.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler has had many ups and downs in his Twins career, but it’s impossible not to recognize his contributions to a decade of Twins baseball. His longevity has placed him on several leaderboards in Twins' history. 

Twins fans are well aware that Max Kepler isn’t without blemishes in his player profile, but there are several situations we’ve seen play out with Kepler that have hurt the Twins' chances at times. Not all are Kepler’s fault, but it’s fair to consider how different things could look in 2025 without him, in a good way.

Playing Through Injury
Kepler fouled a ball off his knee on opening day and has been dealing with after-effects since then. About two weeks ago, it was reported that Kepler’s knee was acting up, and he was scratched on Sunday, August 25. Naturally, the Twins put him on the IL to recover… eleven days later. He played in just three games during that span and was 100% off limits at times as the Twins had several opportunities arise for pinch hitters, runners, etc., and couldn’t make a move.

We’ve seen this between the Twins and Max Kepler on what seems like a yearly basis. The team seems to hold out hope that he can return before the mandated 10 days should they officially place him on the Injured List. Perhaps this year they were extra desperate to not be without Kepler while also missing Buxton and Correa. Unfortunately, the Twins have been playing without "Max Kepler" for months, as he’s posted a .600ish OPS since June 1. One could argue that the reward of getting a hobbled Kepler back onto the field as soon as possible is outweighed by an already banged-up roster playing short for so long. The Twins would disagree.

This gets into a theme that’s become hard to deny when it comes to Kepler. While he’s a fine player, the Twins look at him as much more of a contributor than his career numbers say he is. Every player takes the field at less than 100% during the grind of the MLB season, but the Twins have made a habit of delaying the inevitable on Max Kepler when he’s been downright injured. It has sometimes hurt the team, and the dip in production during those periods will likely affect Kepler’s market this winter. 

Platooning
Returning to the theme of the Twins overvaluing Kepler, he’s become the default left-handed hitter to remain in the lineup against southpaws over names such as Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. While no left-handed hitter is likely to carve out a career-long sample of mashing same-handed pitching, Kepler has had enough data to draw from to conclude that he shouldn’t be hitting against left-handed pitchers. 

In almost 1100 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Kepler is slashing .221/.292/.363 (ironically, a better pace than his last 3 months of 2024). It’s doubtful he will figure things out in his 30s. It may be a case of the Twins deferring to his defense, which is fair considering that's a known advantage he has over several of the other options. His departure this offseason would open opportunities for other left-handed hitters or platoon players like Austin Martin or Michael Helman. There may not be any surefire option to replace him in those matchups, but the Twins have no shortage of candidates who could come through.

Defensive Flexibility
It’s become public knowledge that Kepler does not want to play center field. We’ve seen several occasions when Byron Buxton is out for long periods with no good options to replace him, and Kepler remains in right field despite his capability of at least filling in up the middle. The Twins made a point of insulating the position the last few years, knowing that Buxton would miss time and Kepler would not be an option to fill in.

Fans certainly have their thoughts on Kepler’s preference, but looking at the situation objectively, it's a bit odd. The team has had a ton of innings up for grabs in center field over the last few years, but Kepler has remained in the corner despite his capability to slide over. Suppose the Twins could count on Kepler to fill in at center field. In that case, they’d have likely operated very differently the last few offseasons, not to mention the added flexibility it would add to the lineup on a day-to-day basis. Kepler’s offensive numbers would also be much more appealing coming from a premium defensive position rather than the corner outfield, where the bar to clear at the plate is typically higher.

In 2025, the Twins can keep players like Willi Castro out of center field while keeping him in the everyday lineup with so much playing time opening. Perhaps if someone like DaShawn Keirsey Jr. makes the team, he'll be more open to shifting between outfield positions considering he's a plus defender at any of them. Being much less frigid with playing time in right field will open all kinds of opportunities.

Logistically, it’s hard to envision a Max Kepler return in 2025. The team has several current and upcoming options to fill his playing time moving forward, and a left-handed corner outfielder will be the least of their needs next season.  Bringing back a 32-year-old player coming off of the season he’s had with so many ready replacements would surely be a poor investment at any cost, given the budgetary restraints. 

Unless the Twins' affinity for Kepler outweighs several layers of teambuilding logic (don’t rule it out), what has been a successful Twins career for Max Kepler will end after this season. There would undoubtedly be a Max Kepler-sized hole on the Twins roster in 2025, but it won’t all be bad news. Do you agree?

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[Dave Borton]

Have never cared for Kepler and won't be sorry to see him move on.

His seasons are much too variable in results for my preferences. But my main problem is "me first." Don't care to cover CF? Too bad; shuffle over son.

[CRF]

I too, won't be real sorry to see us move on from Kepler. Sure he's good defensively, but he doesn't produce enough at the plate and he's way too inconsistent. I also don't care for him not being willing to play some CF. That's not putting the team first. Best of luck, but see ya Max. 

[Linehan]

Don’t let the door hit you in the a__ _

[mikelink45]

He has been a decent player but we expected more from him and thus are disappointed.  His cost alone means he is gone and with the players coming up through the system it is okay - Emma, Walker, Keirsey along with Wallner and Larnach give us a good crop to fill the positions and maybe Buxton will play a few games too.

[Fatbat]

Its time to move on. 

[LambchoP]

I've always liked Kepler but it's time to move on. Him leaving opens the door for E Rodriguez and eventually Jenkins. Guys like Martin and Keirsey can earn themselves a backup OF spot on the roster. Kepler should get a shot on another team next year, we just have more than enough younger and cheaper options. Best of luck to ya Kep, you had some really cool moments over the years:)

[RpR]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

He has been a decent player but we expected more from him and thus are disappointed.  His cost alone means he is gone and with the players coming up through the system it is okay - Emma, Walker, Keirsey along with Wallner and Larnach give us a good crop to fill the positions and maybe Buxton will play a few games too.

Larnach has a weak arm; can Keirsey Jr. his Major League pitching?

[mikelink45]

32 minutes ago, RpR said:

Larnach has a weak arm; can Keirsey Jr. his Major League pitching?

Wallner has a great arm for RF, Larnach is fine in left, Keirsey is holding for Buxton or Emma or some other player to take the spot.  We will not know if Keirsey can hit in MLB unless we give him enough ABs to show us.  I suspect he will. 

[Brandon]

Kepler has the long time Twin sentimentality from me in that I appreciate players the longer they are with my team.  but I think we have lower cost options with better offensive potential on the way and more than one so we will be fine.  

The book on the 2009 international signing class is about to close. It looks like Sano with 162 and Kepler with 161 Homeruns are neck and neck for the team lead and Polanco finished his time in Minnesota with 112 which gives them 435 HRs in Minnesota and 450 total.  

The trade tree is still ongoing from the Polanco trade.  I forget the throw in pitcher prospect or was it just Topa, Desclafini, Gabriel Gonzales and cash.  I was thinking there was a throw in pitcher too.  I wonder how that pitcher is doing?  Hopefully Topa can contribute something next year if they keep him around.  The Twins so far have actually lost that deal unless you take into consideration that the cash saved was the amount paid to Santana and you count his contributions.... 

I hope Seth Stohs writes a looking back at the 2009 international league class at the end of the year when Kepler becomes a free agent.  

 

[Linus]

Ironically if Max had been willing to play CF there would be reasons to bring him back. However Wallner and Larnach are better at this point and are playing for the minimum salary. Doubtful they will spend the money but Max leaving gives them a great opportunity to go get a good right handed hitting outfielder ( Austin Martin does not meet that criteria). 

[bean5302]

Royce Lewis didn't want to play 2B, either, but I assume there's less hate for him actually being on public record about that. Interestingly enough, despite making it public he didn't want to play 2B, the Twins shoved him over there anyway.

The entire source of Max Kepler's unwillingness to play center field seems to stem from Gleeman's insider info that Kepler feels like he wears out and breaks down more while playing CF consistently. Kepler, like pretty much all players, prefers to play a static position. I have never seen another source or a single comment from Kepler in regard to him playing CF nor have I ever found a source where Kepler refused or resisted a push to play CF.

Of course we never see Kepler in CF anymore, but that undoubtedly has a lot more to do with Kepler not being the speedy runner he was at age 25 anymore. It's been more than a year or two since Kepler had the speed which is really necessary to cover CF effectively so it feels unlikely the Twins would want him to cover CF anyway. Kepler last posted a sprint speed of 28.0 (which is about the bare minimum for a CF'er) or higher in 2020, and right about where Austin Martin runs. These days, Kepler's sprint speeds are under even 27ft/sec, which is below average for even a corner outfielder.

Max Kepler has been a solid starter for the Twins for a long time. He hasn't been an inconsistent producer, either. Outside of 1 year (2019), Kepler has never produced less than 1.6 fWAR or more than 2.8 fWAR in any full MLB season during his career, though he certainly looks like a guy in the twilight of his MLB experience. He's basically been a league average-ish bat with great corner OF defense almost every year, but he's clearly in decline at this point. No longer a speedy or plus defensive player, it all comes down to his bat, which isn't a plus at Target Field at least. 

Not sure why the Twins weren't able to move him over the past two seasons, when they should have been looking to move him, but this should be his last year in a Twins uniform. He's been a good player on a franchise which has historically been a farm team for larger market teams. I'm sure he'll find a 1 year $6-8MM deal somewhere around the league at this point. Maybe a bit more if his bat heats up to end the season.

[RpR]

47 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Wallner has a great arm for RF, Larnach is fine in left, Keirsey is holding for Buxton or Emma or some other player to take the spot.  We will not know if Keirsey can hit in MLB unless we give him enough ABs to show us.  I suspect he will. 

Wallner will be in Left field, not right.

Kiersey Jr. could be a redo of Stevenson who tore up AAA pitching.

Larnach is on his best day barely average fielder.

[Blyleven2011]

Kepler  ; 

Time to move on , I've always loved his defense but he has always been a streaky hitter and just not productive  when it matters most , yes i know he  has alot of walk off hits  , but in to many instances he just wasnt clutch enough with runners in scoring position ...

His high lights are  3 homer games against Bauer ....

Thanks max , but sorry the time has come for your next  chapter with another  team  ....

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

He has been a decent player but we expected more from him and thus are disappointed.  His cost alone means he is gone and with the players coming up through the system it is okay - Emma, Walker, Keirsey along with Wallner and Larnach give us a good crop to fill the positions and maybe Buxton will play a few games too.

This is exactly right.  He did some promising things right away but never really developed into what he looked like he could be except for 2019 and the occasional hot month or two.  I will be happy to see him move on and open up the outfield for some new talent.  Best of luck to him on a new team next year, but the Twins will be fine without him.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Wallner will be in Left field, not right.

Kiersey Jr. could be a redo of Stevenson who tore up AAA pitching.

Larnach is on his best day barely average fielder.

Why do you seem to be so attached to veteran players on the Twins?  I like veteran players a lot, but sometimes, you've got to move on.  In Kepler's case, he's not providing offense, he's not a clubhouse veteran leader, and he's making a lot of money. 

Wallner, in about half the plate appearances has 2.5 times as much WAR as Kepler this season.

Larnach, is a young player making small $$ who has 1.5 times as much WAR as Kepler this season.

Kiersey, Jr. . . who knows, but his presence is only necessitated by Kepler (or anyone else) not really playing centerfield. 

Based on Kepler's current contribution, removing him from the lineup isn't hurting the team. 

[Doctor Gast]

Kepler was more of a LFer but Rosario was there. Rosario was more of a RFer but that switch never happened. Kepler just got settled in RF. IDK if Kepler will keep on playing after this year. I don't think he'll get the money that is worth adapting to another team. IMO he really enjoyed his time here & he'll move on from MLB. But could very likely be wrong.

When he hurt himself early in the season they should have shut him down & taken care of the problem instead of him limping around all season. We had the players who needed the playing time to help get ready for the time when Kepler will leave. Once he gets fixed better he could help the club going for the stretch.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Kepler was more of a LFer but Rosario was there. Rosario was more of a RFer but that switch never happened. Kepler just got settled in RF. IDK if Kepler will keep on playing after this year. I don't think he'll get the money that is worth adapting to another team. IMO he really enjoyed his time here & he'll move on from MLB. But could very likely be wrong.

When he hurt himself early in the season they should have shut him down & taken care of the problem instead of him limping around all season. We had the players who needed the playing time to help get ready for the time when Kepler will leave. Once he gets fixed better he could help the club going for the stretch.

The second paragraph  , to little to late is how this FO works , maybe with the bad season  the FO thinks they can sign him to a 1 year ,  5 million prove yourself deal , the FO and Rocco have liked Kepler  , has to be for his defense  because  the fans all thought he was a streaky hitter  .. 

[David Maro]

He is on the IL for a problem with the left knee.He took a foul ball off his right knee at the start of the season.He is and has been a hot and cold hitter his whole career.You really can't count 19 because that was a juiced ball year.You now have MLB happy with 90% of the league hitting 240 or less because the fans want homeruns and don't care about strike outs.They should of DFAed him because if and when he returns there will be only 10 or fewer games left.Almost everyday teams are DFAing players and he has no contract,so the money owed isn't a issue.

[darin617]

You never like to see injuries but this may be a good thing going into 2025.  It gives the Twins plenty of time to see if Wallner or Larnach perform playing on an almost daily basis.

[dxpavelka]

Kepler's departure won't be bad news.  Unless it is.  Still looking for the guys  who were going to adequately replace Rosario in the other corner to adequately replace Rosario in the other corner.

 

[Fezig]

I stopped thinking Kepler was worth the time when he wouldn't stop pulling the ball during the overshift era. 

[Whitey333]

Well it's evident that Kepler will be gone.  And the timing is perfect.  We won't need him next year.  For all the negative comments regarding Kepler  the same could be said of Buxton.  He's been here 9 years and cannot be counted on.  He is holding back players developments by honoring us with the privilege of just being his name.  Even though it's consistently on the IL.  No I'm not comparing Kepler with Buxton. One at least plays and tries to play.  The other is just satisfied being on the IL receiving a huge pay check.  I know Buck has a no trade clause but they can be bought out.  This winter we will hear the same refrain we have regarding Buxton. "If Buxton plays center the whole season the Twins will be great."  It's time to move on from both Kepler and Buxton!

[Rosterman]

I will be curious to see what contract he gets. Twins should've mov ed him at the trade deadline, if even for a prospect. Sometimes you move players for salary relief and allowing others to play, especially if your time with the team is diminishing on the horizon.

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/8/2024 at 11:12 AM, mikelink45 said:

He has been a decent player but we expected more from him and thus are disappointed.  His cost alone means he is gone and with the players coming up through the system it is okay - Emma, Walker, Keirsey along with Wallner and Larnach give us a good crop to fill the positions and maybe Buxton will play a few games too.

Walker is a stretch for ‘25…….just arrived at AA a couple days ago. Emma will be in AAA to start next year but if he finishes this September strong …….another 60-90 days in ‘25 & he may actually be an option?

Larnach/Wallner/Kiersey/Castro/Helman/Buxton/Martin ……maybe even Kirilloff are all options ahead of Emma in my opinion starting out ‘25.

Kepler’s 2nd half last year seemed so very encouraging! He was one of 4 guys in the game in the 2nd half of the season that hit .300 & had 30 XBH ……along with Corey Seager and a couple others……..,,obviously, he has regressed - injury hasn’t helped. I have zero issue with him not playing CF!!! T  hi is issue is overblown and has nothing to do with him not getting re-signed. He’s going to be too expensive for his meager & inconsistent offensive production……..even if he’s a $3M guy he’s still not a good offensive fit for a Team with high aspirations.

Kepler may make $7-$10M per year playing for somebody else for a couple years? The defense and the offensive potential is there - he’s just seldom consistent.

[twinstalker]

On 9/8/2024 at 9:53 AM, Linehan said:

Don’t let the door hit you in the a__ _

I was paging down to write exactly this:

"Don't the the door..."

 

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Well it's evident that Kepler will be gone.  And the timing is perfect.  We won't need him next year.  For all the negative comments regarding Kepler  the same could be said of Buxton.  He's been here 9 years and cannot be counted on.  He is holding back players developments by honoring us with the privilege of just being his name.  Even though it's consistently on the IL.  No I'm not comparing Kepler with Buxton. One at least plays and tries to play.  The other is just satisfied being on the IL receiving a huge pay check.  I know Buck has a no trade clause but they can be bought out.  This winter we will hear the same refrain we have regarding Buxton. "If Buxton plays center the whole season the Twins will be great."  It's time to move on from both Kepler and Buxton!

We moved on from Rosario a half a decade ago and still haven't adequately replaced him.  Be careful what you wish for.