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Max Kepler has had many ups and downs in his Twins career, but it’s impossible not to recognize his contributions to a decade of Twins baseball. His longevity has placed him on several leaderboards in Twins' history.
Twins fans are well aware that Max Kepler isn’t without blemishes in his player profile, but there are several situations we’ve seen play out with Kepler that have hurt the Twins' chances at times. Not all are Kepler’s fault, but it’s fair to consider how different things could look in 2025 without him, in a good way.
Playing Through Injury
Kepler fouled a ball off his knee on opening day and has been dealing with after-effects since then. About two weeks ago, it was reported that Kepler’s knee was acting up, and he was scratched on Sunday, August 25. Naturally, the Twins put him on the IL to recover… eleven days later. He played in just three games during that span and was 100% off limits at times as the Twins had several opportunities arise for pinch hitters, runners, etc., and couldn’t make a move.
We’ve seen this between the Twins and Max Kepler on what seems like a yearly basis. The team seems to hold out hope that he can return before the mandated 10 days should they officially place him on the Injured List. Perhaps this year they were extra desperate to not be without Kepler while also missing Buxton and Correa. Unfortunately, the Twins have been playing without "Max Kepler" for months, as he’s posted a .600ish OPS since June 1. One could argue that the reward of getting a hobbled Kepler back onto the field as soon as possible is outweighed by an already banged-up roster playing short for so long. The Twins would disagree.
This gets into a theme that’s become hard to deny when it comes to Kepler. While he’s a fine player, the Twins look at him as much more of a contributor than his career numbers say he is. Every player takes the field at less than 100% during the grind of the MLB season, but the Twins have made a habit of delaying the inevitable on Max Kepler when he’s been downright injured. It has sometimes hurt the team, and the dip in production during those periods will likely affect Kepler’s market this winter.
Platooning
Returning to the theme of the Twins overvaluing Kepler, he’s become the default left-handed hitter to remain in the lineup against southpaws over names such as Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. While no left-handed hitter is likely to carve out a career-long sample of mashing same-handed pitching, Kepler has had enough data to draw from to conclude that he shouldn’t be hitting against left-handed pitchers.
In almost 1100 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Kepler is slashing .221/.292/.363 (ironically, a better pace than his last 3 months of 2024). It’s doubtful he will figure things out in his 30s. It may be a case of the Twins deferring to his defense, which is fair considering that's a known advantage he has over several of the other options. His departure this offseason would open opportunities for other left-handed hitters or platoon players like Austin Martin or Michael Helman. There may not be any surefire option to replace him in those matchups, but the Twins have no shortage of candidates who could come through.
Defensive Flexibility
It’s become public knowledge that Kepler does not want to play center field. We’ve seen several occasions when Byron Buxton is out for long periods with no good options to replace him, and Kepler remains in right field despite his capability of at least filling in up the middle. The Twins made a point of insulating the position the last few years, knowing that Buxton would miss time and Kepler would not be an option to fill in.
Fans certainly have their thoughts on Kepler’s preference, but looking at the situation objectively, it's a bit odd. The team has had a ton of innings up for grabs in center field over the last few years, but Kepler has remained in the corner despite his capability to slide over. Suppose the Twins could count on Kepler to fill in at center field. In that case, they’d have likely operated very differently the last few offseasons, not to mention the added flexibility it would add to the lineup on a day-to-day basis. Kepler’s offensive numbers would also be much more appealing coming from a premium defensive position rather than the corner outfield, where the bar to clear at the plate is typically higher.
In 2025, the Twins can keep players like Willi Castro out of center field while keeping him in the everyday lineup with so much playing time opening. Perhaps if someone like DaShawn Keirsey Jr. makes the team, he'll be more open to shifting between outfield positions considering he's a plus defender at any of them. Being much less frigid with playing time in right field will open all kinds of opportunities.
Logistically, it’s hard to envision a Max Kepler return in 2025. The team has several current and upcoming options to fill his playing time moving forward, and a left-handed corner outfielder will be the least of their needs next season. Bringing back a 32-year-old player coming off of the season he’s had with so many ready replacements would surely be a poor investment at any cost, given the budgetary restraints.
Unless the Twins' affinity for Kepler outweighs several layers of teambuilding logic (don’t rule it out), what has been a successful Twins career for Max Kepler will end after this season. There would undoubtedly be a Max Kepler-sized hole on the Twins roster in 2025, but it won’t all be bad news. Do you agree?
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