Playing Through Injury is Hurting Max Kepler and the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Max Kepler has been playing hurt and his performance is hurting himself and the Twins. How did the team get to this point with its longest-tenured player?

Image courtesy of © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

As the 2024 season winds down, Max Kepler's performance on the field has become a growing concern for the Twins and for Kepler himself as he looks toward free agency. During the season’s opening series, Kepler hit a foul ball off his knee and he’s had a body floating in the joint since that point. Kepler's decision to continue playing through the pain might be doing more harm than good—not just to the Twins' playoff hopes but to his own market value.

Knee injuries are notoriously tricky for any athlete, but it's a critical blow for a player like Kepler, who relies on his athleticism and defensive range. The floating body in his knee has undoubtedly affected his mobility and overall performance. Despite the lingering injury, Kepler and the Twins have chosen to keep him on the field. However, this decision might backfire as his on-field struggles become more pronounced.

One of the most noticeable aspects of Kepler's game this season has been his decreased walk rate. Known earlier in his career for his ability to work counts and draw walks, Kepler's plate discipline has taken a hit. From 2018-2022, Kepler posted a BB% of 10.1% or higher. Last season, he saw a slight dip to 9.2 BB%. In 2024, his walk rate has dropped to a career-low (5.5 BB%), indicating his approach at the plate might be compromised. Whether this is due to the knee injury affecting his lower half and, consequently, his swing mechanics or simply a mental lapse, the result is the same: fewer free passes and more outs.

Kepler's power numbers have also seen a significant decline. He ended the 2023 season on a high note with a .926 OPS in the second half while arguably being the Twins’ top hitter. Kepler's power has all but disappeared in recent months. His 90 OPS+ is the lowest total of his career, and his .128 ISO is the second-lowest total. This trend is alarming for a corner outfielder with a history of showing power potential, especially in a contract year. The knee injury could be playing a role here as well. Generating power at the plate requires a stable base and the ability to drive through the ball. If Kepler's knee prevents him from getting full extension, it's no surprise that the power numbers are down.

Defensively, Kepler has long been praised for his strong arm and range in the outfield. However, the knee injury has clearly affected his defensive capabilities. Once one of baseball’s top defensive right fielders, Kepler's sprint speed has dipped from the 51st percentile last season to the 36th percentile in 2024. He has a negative DRS for the first time in his career, and his Fielding Run Value was only lower during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. 

As Kepler approaches free agency, these struggles could significantly impact his market value. Teams looking for a corner outfielder with power and solid defense might hesitate to invest in a player with declining metrics and an unresolved knee injury. Even if Kepler opts for offseason surgery to address the knee issue, questions about his durability and ability to return to form will linger. Kepler's willingness to play through pain is commendable, but the decision may ultimately cost him. In an offseason where every little detail matters, Kepler's recent performance might lead to a colder market than anticipated.

For the Twins, the situation is bittersweet. Kepler's contributions over the years have been significant, but his recent struggles and looming free agency make it difficult to envision him as part of the team's long-term plans. As the offseason approaches, both Kepler and the Twins will have to make tough decisions about what comes next.

Kepler's decision to play through his knee injury might be hurting more than helping. With a noticeable decline in walk rate, power hitting, and defensive abilities, his free-agent stock is likely taking a hit—a reality that could have significant implications for his future and the future of the Twins. 

Should Kepler be put on the IL? How much is his knee injury impacting his performance? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[big dog]

And yet people still argue that players who sit out are "too soft" and should suck it up. If you're so hurt you can't perform well, you're hurt. Quit hurting the team more by trying to play. This isn't difficult.

[Coach Wheels]

Kepler being hurt is par for the Twins; we can't count on guys staying healthy, the last 3 years have been tough.

It would nice to see our best 8 guys in the lineup for 135-140 games in a year; I think we'd be pretty damn good.

For Kepler, it's his last year as a Twin, guessing we'll need him in October bit we honestly can't count on anyone to be healthy right now.

[big dog]

3 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

It would nice to see our best 8 guys in the lineup for 135-140 games in a year; I think we'd be pretty damn good.

 

True, but it would also be unprecedented in the history of baseball (at least the modern era).

[Whitey333]

Yes I'm sure we are witnessing Keplers last year with the Twins being on the IL.  Reality is of course the Twins weren't going to have him back anyway.  What easier way for ownership to cut payroll?  I give Kepler credit for trying to perform even though the results weren't there.  He at least tried.  Our great Buxton and Correa seem content on milking the time on the IL.  They were both supposed to be out a short time.  Yet Buxton had been out nearly a month (we are kind of used to that aren't we) and Correa over 2 months.  No I'm not suggesting they should play with serious injuries.  It just seems they aren't that interested at returning anytime soon.  Our two supposedly better players languishing on the IL while their teammates play through it trying to secure a playoff spot.

Go Twins.  Let's take the Royals series this weekend.

 

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, big dog said:

True, but it would also be unprecedented in the history of baseball (at least the modern era).

Players get hurt... they get hurt on all 29 teams. 

Sometimes they get hurt in September during a stretch run... sometime they get hurt before or during the playoffs. 

If the Twins are not prepared for the possibility of injury... they are not prepared for the playoffs.

It's OK we will forget this injury stuff and talk of log jams next off-season. 

[MinnInPa]

IMO  ..Kiersey will be a better replacement for Kepler next year..if they give him a chance. 

[insagt1]

Some injuries are more 'predictable' .is anyone even remotely surprised that Buxton is still hurt? Hibs injuries are always measured in months not weeks or days. It happens every year. Correa has also missed a ton of time as a Twin. Lewis was creeping down that road too. It's reality. Twins must adjust and they are fairly proficient at doing just that.

Kepler may be done for the year. And probably done as a Twin too.

[KBJ1]

If they knew about that one chip all along, they should have.scoped the knee right away at the beginning of the season. You usually don't miss that much time from that.

Poor decision not to.

[old nurse]

Kepler outside of 2019 has not had sustained way above average numbers. He fits in the category of good player, not great. He was never going to get the mega contract as a corner outfielder. He will probably find a one year deal in the 10 million range. The ifs of a carryover from the last half of last year are counting on an outlier year. There are far more regressions to their mean than sustaining the outlier year in their 30s

[tony&rodney]

Kepler had a good run for the Twins. One would think it was emotional for him to miss Jorge Polanco in Spring Training and then he hits a foul ball off his knee early in the year. Max tried to grind it out but physical limitations for athletes are difficult to overcome. The inability to be anywhere close to healthy was pretty obvious on the bases and in the field. Hitting with damaged legs removes the base, which will ultimately result in diminished performance. Kepler has had a tough year. I can't see him returning without his legs being 100%. 

The Twins have a somewhat similar situation with Royce Lewis, although it seems Royce is still able to swing a bat. Lewis needs to be plopped in the DH hole and kept away from a glove until he is fully healthy. Perhaps he will find a groove as a hitter and feel better if he can focus solely on his bat. His legs are not healthy and sudden movements mean  reduced effectiveness in the field and on the bases. We see this routinely, especially when he runs the bases, but running the bases slowly is not exactly hurting the team much while the poor fielding is a negative.

Sorry to see Max Kepler end his Twins career on a down note, because I had pretty high hopes for him this year. 

[DJL44]

Sad that it ends with a whimper but that's not unusual.

[TopGunn#22]

It's clear to me that the knee injury has been bothering Kepler for quite some time.  They should have given him an extended time on the IL much sooner and had Kiersey/Helman up much earlier.  I wonder if there is enough time for Max to get healthy enough to help in time for the playoffs.  

Something else I've noticed is how slowly Royce Lewis coasts down the first base line after hitting a groundball.  It's REALLY noticeable when you see how hard other guys motor down the line.  I believe the team is telling him to take it easy, not a lack of hustle on the part of Lewis.  It has not been addressed by Cory Provus while calling the games but if you haven't noticed it, check it out the next time Lewis hits a groundball.   

On the one hand, I get it.  His bat is hugely important to the Twins and they want to keep him healthy during a possible playoff run.  On the other hand, if he's NOT healthy enough to "play the game" there are many who believe he shouldn't be playing until he IS.  

In another era, Lewis would be called out for this, or Rocco would be, for allowing the perceived lack of hustle to occur.  Even though I can understand the reasons, and probably agree with them, I just can't help cringing every time Lewis takes a slow jog down the first base line.  

[TopGunn#22]

I was typing my comment while tony&rodney's comment had just been posted.  So glad to see tony&rodney has noticed this as well about Lewis.  

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It has not been addressed by Cory Provus while calling the games but if you haven't noticed it, check it out the next time Lewis hits a groundball.   

Yes, Royce has ongoing leg issues and clearly is expected to coast while running the bases to avoid a situation where he needs to be shut down. Miranda has a somewhat similar deal. The coaches/front office want these guys in the lineup for their bats but this means jogging on fly balls and infield grounders. The Twins would like to have two or more DH spots to save these guys from further injury. Miranda is pretty slow at third base but Lewis is a virtual statue. However, both could bring the team some wins with their bats so we (and the poor pitchers) will have to accept one of them in the field and hope the +/- is a positive towards the outcomes of each game. I'm sure the coach's cringe but the best available players need to be used. 

Max Kepler reached a point with his injury where he was no longer playing well in the field, couldn't run the bases very decently, and was compromised at the plate and thus couldn't be much of a threat with his bat. Finally, the Twins put him on the IL. 

[saviking]

Well, they won't have to worry about that next year

[LambchoP]

I've always really liked Max and he's had some real big moments like walk off wins over the years. He's been declining offensively and defensively this year though. How much of that is because of injury I'm not sure, but this is it for his Twins tenure. I hope he gets some kind of chance with another team and can keep his career going, he seems like a real legit dude and we wish him all the best. Thanks for your years of service Max!

[OvertheHill]

I too am sad it’s apparently ending this way but the writings been on the wall as far as Keplers future here.  If he can get his knee right I can see him being helpful to another team but we need to see what we have with Larnach, Walner, Keirsey, et. al. 

[JLoc]

It can be hard to tell if a player’s decline in play is due to aging or an injury. I admire Max for playing through his knee pain. He has been a player I’ve enjoyed watching over this career.

 

It’s obviously time next year for the Twins to move on. A team with little outfield depth may get Max for around $5-8 million. If Max’s season was really affected by a bad knee & he rebounds to his 2nd half 2023 production that team will get a bargain.  If not it’s likely the end of a good career.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The decisions for Kepler to play through the injury, while technically his, was really a joint decision.  You have to wonder what changed over the last 6 weeks that finally had the team putting him on the IL now vs June.  At some point in the next few months he will get it cleaned up.  I do not think he is done, he brings too much to the table when healthy.  Some team will probably get him at a bargain next year.

On a related note, I remember a few years back commentors on this site were obliterating the Twins medical staff, blaming them for all of the injuries.  The Twins have been decimated by injuries this year, have players either trying to play through injuries or pointedly not telling the team about injuries.  Why has there been no discussion about the role the Twins medical staff has played this season?

[Aggies7]

4 hours ago, big dog said:

And yet people still argue that players who sit out are "too soft" and should suck it up. If you're so hurt you can't perform well, you're hurt. Quit hurting the team more by trying to play. This isn't difficult.

I’d be more concerned about the twins, with access to all sorts of medical info, apparently struggling to determine if a guy can or can’t play due to injury than what any fan thinks. 

There’s also a difference between “hurt” and injured. Everyone is hurting in September. Guys have been at it since February on a daily basis. Byron has “discomfort”. What is that? It’s apparently different for everyone. Does it prevent him from performing at an acceptable level? Is Byron in the outfield with an an uncomfortable hip better for the twins than Austin Martin misplaying balls?
 

Unfortunately for Byron, he’s not going to get the benefit of the doubt considering his track record. Unless he’s the world’s most unlucky young man, the amount of time missed is a marvel of modern medical science. And he’ll probably finish as the biggest what if in twins history 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, Royce has ongoing leg issues and clearly is expected to coast while running the bases to avoid a situation where he needs to be shut down. Miranda has a somewhat similar deal. The coaches/front office want these guys in the lineup for their bats but this means jogging on fly balls and infield grounders. The Twins would like to have two or more DH spots to save these guys from further injury. Miranda is pretty slow at third base but Lewis is a virtual statue. However, both could bring the team some wins with their bats so we (and the poor pitchers) will have to accept one of them in the field and hope the +/- is a positive towards the outcomes of each game. I'm sure the coach's cringe but the best available players need to be used. 

Max Kepler reached a point with his injury where he was no longer playing well in the field, couldn't run the bases very decently, and was compromised at the plate and thus couldn't be much of a threat with his bat. Finally, the Twins put him on the IL. 

Team/Kepler took too long, particularly after Sept. 1, to put him on IL and not replace him with an able bodied player!

Obvious for some time that Lewis is not trying to push his legs unless he’s running from a slow gate to a faster one, while on the bases.

I think Miranda is physically just fine - his limitations at 3B are just based on his level of athleticism.

[JD-TWINS]

22 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The decisions for Kepler to play through the injury, while technically his, was really a joint decision.  You have to wonder what changed over the last 6 weeks that finally had the team putting him on the IL now vs June.  At some point in the next few months he will get it cleaned up.  I do not think he is done, he brings too much to the table when healthy.  Some team will probably get him at a bargain next year.

On a related note, I remember a few years back commentors on this site were obliterating the Twins medical staff, blaming them for all of the injuries.  The Twins have been decimated by injuries this year, have players either trying to play through injuries or pointedly not telling the team about injuries.  Why has there been no discussion about the role the Twins medical staff has played this season?

IMO, what changed is Matt Wallner came back up and didn’t fail. He wasn’t an option earlier in the year and after 2-4 weeks through August it had become obvious that he was an everyday option that’s clearly better than Max. Then Buxton was out and the veteran presence and still very reasonable defense that Kepler provides - tough to ignore.

[joefish]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It's clear to me that the knee injury has been bothering Kepler for quite some time.  They should have given him an extended time on the IL much sooner and had Kiersey/Helman up much earlier.  I wonder if there is enough time for Max to get healthy enough to help in time for the playoffs.  

Something else I've noticed is how slowly Royce Lewis coasts down the first base line after hitting a groundball.  It's REALLY noticeable when you see how hard other guys motor down the line.  I believe the team is telling him to take it easy, not a lack of hustle on the part of Lewis.  It has not been addressed by Cory Provus while calling the games but if you haven't noticed it, check it out the next time Lewis hits a groundball.   

On the one hand, I get it.  His bat is hugely important to the Twins and they want to keep him healthy during a possible playoff run.  On the other hand, if he's NOT healthy enough to "play the game" there are many who believe he shouldn't be playing until he IS.  

In another era, Lewis would be called out for this, or Rocco would be, for allowing the perceived lack of hustle to occur.  Even though I can understand the reasons, and probably agree with them, I just can't help cringing every time Lewis takes a slow jog down the first base line.  

Yes. Yup. He us not hustling. 

Our healthy replacement has to he better than running an injured player out there.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

If they knew about that one chip all along, they should have.scoped the knee right away at the beginning of the season. You usually don't miss that much time from that.

Poor decision not to.

The goal is to never cut a body open if you don't have to

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

36 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

On a related note, I remember a few years back commentors on this site were obliterating the Twins medical staff, blaming them for all of the injuries.  The Twins have been decimated by injuries this year, have players either trying to play through injuries or pointedly not telling the team about injuries.  Why has there been no discussion about the role the Twins medical staff has played this season?

Commenters on this site have every right to be skeptical of anything injury related that comes out. Honest communication about injuries in this organization is non-existent. 

[big dog]

20 minutes ago, joefish said:

Yes. Yup. He us not hustling. 

Our healthy replacement has to he better than running an injured player out there.

Well, that would be ideal. Sometimes it doesn't work.

Tony Oliva DH'd on one leg for three full years (1973-75) with the Twins. The general feeling was he had to hit a double in order to get to first base safely, which was only somewhat of an exaggeration. That seems ridiculous, but he did put up an OPS+ of 109 his first two years and 103 his third. Low for a DH, but perhaps better than anyone else the Twins had on the bench at the time. Bobby Darwin played RF with an OPS+ of 94 in 1973. Four guys played over 100 games in 1974 with a lower OPS+, including Harmon at 90. They pretty clearly didn't have healthy replacements better than Tony, so he DHd. Not ideal at all, but if you think the Pohlad payroll restrictions are nothing compared to the Calvin Griffith payroll restrictions.

[cmoss84]

The mouthful of gas Max acquired in the OP' picture probably didn't help. 

[JD-TWINS]

52 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Commenters on this site have every right to be skeptical of anything injury related that comes out. Honest communication about injuries in this organization is non-existent. 

As with nearly every sports franchise known to man!

[LA Vikes Fan]

It's sad to see Kepler go out this way but there is a silver lining. The most likely scenario for next year was Kepler gone with Wallner and Laranach in the corner OF spots most days, maybe platooning some with a RH bat to start against LH pitching. I expect that to be the result the rest of the way with Castro in the IF/Super UTL role, and Martin and Keirsey in CF. This allows Lewis to DH more and still stay in the lineup. I think that's what we're going to see in September with Correa, Buxton, Margot, and Kepler back in late September, if at all. All these injuries do give us a jump on next year and in a year where .500 ball the rest of the way is highly likely to get us into the playoffs. 

With all that said, it's very hard to see Kepler's career end this way. He was never a star but he was a steady contributor and a class act.