Zebby Matthews Gets the Call to the Twins: What He Is, What He Will Be

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Strange. I've read on this site 100s of times that the Twins never give the kids a chance until their roster spot is at risk.

/s

Or injuries....

[Shaitan]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or injuries....

They had 4 days since Ryan's injury. They could have aligned things to use AAAA players on the 40, at least for a spot start/one-off. They did not.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, Eris said:

Interesting choice considering he was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season. 

With good players, I would hope the FO promotes them based on their readiness, and not to avoid losing them, especially pitchers who are only going to throw so many pitches in their career.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

Tuesday should be Vazquez's turn to start, so it lines up well. Just listen to your catcher, Kid. He'll keep it to the basics for you. Shake him off a couple of times to confuse the opposition, but then go right back to what he called, LOL.

Looking over comments/posts while watching game Monday night.

A little over reaction here but after watching Jeffers take strike 2 & strike 3 (fastballs) with guys on 1st & 3rd with 1 out…….I started wondering when the buzz might start here that Vazquez is the #1 Catcher on the club. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Vazquez is definitely a more valuable defensive catcher. He’s got considerably less power than Jeffers. However, Jeffers at .290 BA and Vazquez at .110 BA is long gone. As of this evening Vazquez is hitting .225 with 6 HR in 213 AB’s & Jeffers is hitting .228 with 17 HR in 307 AB’s.

Don’t know the numbers clearly, but via eye test, Vazquez has been hitting effectively, & better than Jeffers, for nearly 2 months.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Looking over comments/posts while watching game Monday night.

A little over reaction here but after watching Jeffers take strike 2 & strike 3 (fastballs) with guys on 1st & 3rd with 1 out…….I started wondering when the buzz might start here that Vazquez is the #1 Catcher on the club. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Vazquez is definitely a more valuable defensive catcher. He’s got considerably less power than Jeffers. However, Jeffers at .290 BA and Vazquez at .110 BA is long gone. As of this evening Vazquez is hitting .225 with 6 HR in 213 AB’s & Jeffers is hitting .228 with 17 HR in 307 AB’s.

Don’t know the numbers clearly, but via eye test, Vazquez has been hitting effectively, & better than Jeffers, for nearly 2 months.

Just going by OPS as the quick and dirty overall measure, April and May Jeffers was as hot as Vazquez was putrid. In each of June, July, and so far in August, Vazquez has the better OPS between the two. I even tried to cherry pick a little, to pinpoint Vazquez at his best, but basically when the calendar flipped over to July, he started hitting. From the July 3 game to now, his OPS is 1.008 (!) across 63 PA.

That's small sample size, and guess what, his BABIP is high at .364. But not monstrously so - a few seeing-eye singles or an extra gapper for extra bases, nothing extraordinary.  One contributing factor is that he's not striking out very much; 10 Ks in that stretch. All in all, enjoy the show, it may or may not last but the staff's confidence (or inability to find a trading partner, same diff when you ask them) is paying off now.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, 8th round picks starting the year in A+ ball don't often reach the majors that season. So that surprises people. Nothing you said changes that. Him reaching the majors faster than the previous, lower median even is surprising. He's beaten the odds of what anyone was expecting of him in 2022 or coming into 2024.

That article is about college players taken in the top 20 picks in the draft. An 8th round pick beating their median is surprising. That article is actually proof that we should be surprised by the rapid ascent of Zebby Matthews. We should be both surprised and excited about his rapid ascent. 

Did you read that part about performance? Do I need to spell that out for you? It's always always the same with you. Ask for data, *&^(*&^ on the data, ask for more data, *&^*&^& n on the data, create a strawman, over and over and over and over and over. Ignore.

Oh, I can't ignore. You're a "Community Leader" What a laugh.

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Did you read that part about performance?

You had a comment that someone who performed at AA was ready to jump to MLB. However, Matthews has traveled the road from A+ to MLB and that is always a bit of a surprise. Because Zeb was not a high draft pick it does seem like a bigger achievement. The Twins are not noted, as you suggested, for promoting from AA straight away to MLB. This, whether a fault of the organization or not (separate argument), makes it surprising. This shouldn't be an argument. I would be surprised if Andrew Morris was promoted to MLB as well.

Emmanuel Rodriguez is out with some type of mysterious but apparently serious hand injury. Until the injury, EmRod toyed with AA pitchers to a somewhat ridiculous degree. When focused (he has been prone to losing focus in blowouts and low leverage at bats), EmRod looked like he belonged with the big club. I doubt the Twins even considered that move. Naturally, the injury has made any promotions of EmRod moot. 

In any event we wish Matthews good luck, especially as he will need to compose himself in a game where Seth Lugo is pitching much as David Festa faced some reality facing off opposed to Bibee. Here's to hoping the defense and offense supports Zebulon.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

With good players, I would hope the FO promotes them based on their readiness, and not to avoid losing them, especially pitchers who are only going to throw so many pitches in their career.

This

[Heiny]

Zebby Mathews = Dwight Gooden

 

[SwainZag]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Did you read that part about performance? Do I need to spell that out for you? It's always always the same with you. Ask for data, *&^(*&^ on the data, ask for more data, *&^*&^& n on the data, create a strawman, over and over and over and over and over. Ignore.

Oh, I can't ignore. You're a "Community Leader" What a laugh.

But he's not wrong.  The article you posted was full of great information, but they studied the Top 20 picks only in the draft.  That right there should throw a giant wrench in the data when throwing in a guy who was an 8th round pick.

Also, right in the article, is word for word, "This doesn't prove any causation, of course - it could be that players promoted to the majors sooner develop faster, or just that best players get through the minors faster, or something else entirely.  

The fact is, Matthews did make it to the majors extremely quick, and in all intents and purposes IS an outlier, especially when comparing him against pretty much the entire draft class.

[bighat]

Zeb-BEE

Zeb-BEE

Zeb-BEE! 

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He is already 24 (Yes, I know so many don't care about age) but he will be 25 at the start of next season (or real close) and if he isn't given much of chance next year, because they couldn't go into the season with him being the 6th or 7th starter), he will be 26 in 26 and will still be a wild card, generally not the best position for a pitcher to be in.

Now he gets his feet wet, and if does well can be the Twins SWR next year and can be in the top 6 - 8 starters next year.

Good Luck Kid!

Apparently, he’s in our Top 6-8 starters this year! Ryan down - Paddack down ……..5 other guys & then Zebby. Good luck to him. It’s all about location & not being too fat with his pitches in zone.

[terrydactyls]

I wish I had flown to Vegas in March and made a very large bet that the Twins starting pitchers in August would include Festa, SWR, and Matthews.  I would never have to work again.  But since I'm retired, I already don't have to work again and I can just sit back and enjoy the show.  (But I still wish I could have made that bet!)

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, Heiny said:

Zebby Mathews = Dwight Gooden

 

Put away that pipe. JK. Gooden was 19 and totally dominated MLB upon arrival. You had to see Gooden pitch to believe it almost. Let us just allow Zebulon Matthews be himself.

Dreams are always good though. I like that, so I'm not condemning the comment as much as favoring an avoidance of any comparisons. It is similar to other comparisons, such as in the recent game recap article that suggested Royce Lewis was in Bobby Witt Jr. territory, which is unfair to Royce who will never reach those heights. Zebby = Zebby. Looking for a great debut tonight.

[IndianaTwin]

21 hours ago, Eris said:

Interesting choice considering he was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season. 

I wonder if they aren't figuring that with 44 games remaining, there's a reasonable likelihood they are going to need him at some point this season anyway. If Paddack is still out for a little while, the odds of making it through the rest of the season on just Lopez, Ober, SWR, Festa and Varland are pretty slim. Even if Paddack is back soon, there's still a pretty good likelihood they will need someone else. If there's a good chance they'll need him later, it makes sense to go ahead and bite the bullet now. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

22 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Or Dobnak, I'd rather see what Blewett has got. Just not in a situation where he has a chance to blow it...

I don't think Blewett will blow it. 

[LambchoP]

DFA Farmer or Theilbar would be the smart move. With our lack of warm bodies both on the field and in the bullpen, I highly doubt either of these guys are going anywhere. I'm guessing we're going to see a bit of musical chairs in the back of our bullpen with Winder, Blewitt, Dobnak, maybe Bouschly or Henriquez. Whoever the fresh arm is and who still has options. Not sure what to think about our deadline acquisition yet, Richards? Had that horrible outing where he walked five guys and hit two batters, but then looked great last night. Is he a pure rental? I think if the Twins could help him develop a third pitch he could be pretty useful.

[Trov]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Honestly, people are way too worried. It shows how poorly this organization has developed talent by attaching big kid gloves to everybody. If they're ready, they're ready, but this organization has frequently log jammed talent far behind mediocre depth for whatever reason, be it extra team control or needing to polish some very rough ore. I was ready for Matthews to be called up directly out of AA. You do not perform at that level and not have what it takes to be serviceable. I'm sure some fans are thinking back to Berrios, who pitched in more pitcher friendly leagues. Matthews is age 24. It is totally normal for top prospects drafted out of college to make it to MLB in this timeline. 2-3 years is normal. If they're not in MLB by year 3, they're behind schedule, and if they're not in MLB by year 4, they've probably washed out.

ERA/FIP/xFIP
2015 AA - 3.08/3.09/2.88 - 9.13 K/9, 2.38 BB/9
2016 AAA - 2.51/2.91/2.89 - 10.10 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 <-- Year Berrios was called up
vs. Matthews
2024 AA - 1.95/2.00/2.56 - 10.25 K/9, 0.98 BB/9
2024 AAA - 5.68/4.14/2.96 - 10.89 K/9, 0.47 BB/9

While Matthews' ERA is rough at 5.68 in AAA, his FIP is right in line with the area of what Festa's was, and Matthews owns a 2.96 xFIP. Excellent K rates and elite walk rates with an above average WHIP in a hitter friendly AAA league. Matthews' results are more impressive than Berrios for what it's worth. Though Matthews is also a couple years older than Berrios. I suppose it might be a toss up of maturity vs. expected improvement. Who knows?

I don't agree with Matthews having a lack of command. There is utterly no way a pitcher can have 80 grade control while throwing upper 90s, get elite results, but have poor command. There is room for improvement in placement, but to say he doesn't have at least good "command" doesn't make sense to me. High K rate, low BB rate. That combination is incompatible with being unable to throw the ball where you want it or even not having plus command without absolutely filthy stuff.

Matthews doesn't have much experience dealing with hitters as polished as AAA/MLB hitters are, but that's where his catcher is going to be critical. No electronic strike zone, and hopefully he gets a decent umpire so he can get a consistent strike zone he can work with.

He doesn't have to go out there and throw a perfect game. It'll be great to see him pitch.

Comparing Matthews to Berrios on path to MLB is a little flawed.  First two different FO and systems.  Beyond that, Berrios was a high school pick and had several years in organization and was a supplemental first round pick. Matthews was an 8th round college pitcher that is in his second full season in organization. Berrios also had pitched 17 games in AAA the year he was called up and did well.  Matthews has moved up 3 levels this year and has yet to settle into AAA. Additionally, Berrios came up to a last place team and pitched terrible at MLB level, 14 games and FIP of 6.20, clearly he was not ready. Matthews will be coming into a team fighting for first place. 

I am not saying Matthews will not come in and do just fine, he may very well and I hope he does, but to compare him to Berrios and say Matthews is ready because he did better overall than Berrios means we should not be worried is flawed because Berrios was not ready either and had much more time in AAA and AA for that matter. Matthews was not a highly touted prospect with high draft capitol.  He is a guy that has improved greatly this year, last hear his stats were ehh where the majority of his starts were at High A and he only had 8 K's per 9 and an ERA of 4.59.  This year his K's are up, walks are down, not that they were high last year, but rarely does a guy make the jumps he is doing in terms of levels. 

I think fans are right to be concerned that he gets blown up at this level.  I personally have never seen him pitch but with the low walk numbers suggests to me he stays in zone and has been over powering guys, or his stuff is very deceptive and gets a ton of chase. I do not believe AA has the robo umps now, and only AAA so he has only pitched with that for 4 games. I do agree AAA is a hitter league the Saints are in. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Apparently, he’s in our Top 6-8 starters this year! Ryan down - Paddack down ……..5 other guys & then Zebby. Good luck to him. It’s all about location & not being too fat with his pitches in zone.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, SWR, Festa, Varland, and at the very beginning DeSclafani, so he would be 9th and that doesn't include guys like Boushley, Dobnak, Plutko and Headrick who he passed as the season went on. But I get your point.

[gman]

Since I don't think the Twins can kick the (Dodger, Baltimore, Yankee) butt this year in the playoffs, I am very content in watching more of the future unfold. If Festa and Mathews along with SWR start the rest of the way or at least until they run out of gas, I think we could have a heck of a rotation next year that could be ready to push us into first at the start and keep us there all year. The hitters still need health and maturing.

[SF Twins Fan]

16 minutes ago, gman said:

Since I don't think the Twins can kick the (Dodger, Baltimore, Yankee) butt this year in the playoffs, I am very content in watching more of the future unfold. If Festa and Mathews along with SWR start the rest of the way or at least until they run out of gas, I think we could have a heck of a rotation next year that could be ready to push us into first at the start and keep us there all year. The hitters still need health and maturing.

To me next season is really the season the Twins "Go for it". 

The rotation next season should be:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddock with Festa, Mathews and Morris at AAA.

The lineup should be:

C Jeffers & Vazquez

1 Miranda & Julien or Kiriloff

2 Lee

3 Lewis

SS Correa

LF Castro / Larnach

CF Buxton

RF Wallner

DH Castro / Larnach

Bench: Vazquez, Martin, Julien, Kiriloff / FA outfielder

Keaschall and Rodriguez at AAA.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, h2oface said:

Sweet. Just in time for 2024 Seth Lugo. Make him earn it right away.

I'm all for it. Isn't it about time the Twins really get a pitcher that is young and shocks MLB and becomes an instant star? I think it is high time. 

I think that might be SWR at age 23.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, SWR, Festa, Varland, and at the very beginning DeSclafani, so he would be 9th and that doesn't include guys like Boushley, Dobnak, Plutko and Headrick who he passed as the season went on. But I get your point.

Today is my timing, not 1-3 months ago v. AAA guys.

DeScla didn’t throw an inning in MLB this year so I didn’t really consider him to be in the mix.

At any rate - he’s clearly #8 as of 8/13/24.

With Ryan & Paddack unable to pitch, he’s up to #6 as of today. ……I want him to succeed but I sure hope this is as far up the pecking order he gets this season!

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

To me next season is really the season the Twins "Go for it". 

The rotation next season should be:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddock with Festa, Mathews and Morris at AAA.

The lineup should be:

C Jeffers & Vazquez

1 Miranda & Julien or Kiriloff

2 Lee

3 Lewis

SS Correa

LF Castro / Larnach

CF Buxton

RF Wallner

DH Castro / Larnach

Bench: Vazquez, Martin, Julien, Kiriloff / FA outfielder

Keaschall and Rodriguez at AAA.

Keaschall may not be able to throw regularly until June (Tommy John)……….don’t see the FA signing…..I think it will be a youth movement. Castro essentially fits the FA/OF role if Julien & Kirilloff are back as depth at 1B & 2B……..been saying for over a year, I don’t expect Julien to ever see time at 1B.

Hoping Rodriguez matures and is capable by July/August of ‘25.

[JD-TWINS]

So, it’s 1:30 Central and Matthews isn’t on roster and nobody is off…….only exchange today is Okert for Dobnak.

Am concerned they are waiting on some health news on Buxton and may put him on IL to make room for Matthews today. He’ll be optioned Wednesday. Could bring in a player overnight from Indy to take Buxton’s spot.

????

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

To me next season is really the season the Twins "Go for it". 

The rotation next season should be:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddock with Festa, Mathews and Morris at AAA.

The lineup should be:

C Jeffers & Vazquez

1 Miranda & Julien or Kiriloff

2 Lee

3 Lewis

SS Correa

LF Castro / Larnach

CF Buxton

RF Wallner

DH Castro / Larnach

Bench: Vazquez, Martin, Julien, Kiriloff / FA outfielder

Keaschall and Rodriguez at AAA.

I wonder how often a team runs back the same roster?

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, gman said:

Since I don't think the Twins can kick the (Dodger, Baltimore, Yankee) butt this year in the playoffs, I am very content in watching more of the future unfold. If Festa and Mathews along with SWR start the rest of the way or at least until they run out of gas, I think we could have a heck of a rotation next year that could be ready to push us into first at the start and keep us there all year. The hitters still need health and maturing.

Said somebody every year for 20 years. People have been saying this since before and after with Berrios, Gibson, Buxton, Sano, Lewis, Romero, Gonzo, AK..........

[TwinsDr2021]

50 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Today is my timing, not 1-3 months ago v. AAA guys.

DeScla didn’t throw an inning in MLB this year so I didn’t really consider him to be in the mix.

At any rate - he’s clearly #8 as of 8/13/24.

With Ryan & Paddack unable to pitch, he’s up to #6 as of today. ……I want him to succeed but I sure hope this is as far up the pecking order he gets this season!

My point was he wasn't even in the top 10 before the season started, but between injuries and his performance he moved up the list. The first reason isn't good for the Twins the second one is good.

[FlyingFinn]

57 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Am concerned they are waiting on some health news on Buxton and may put him on IL to make room for Matthews today.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think it has be pitcher for pitcher. Adding Matthews for Buxton would give us too many pitchers on the roster.

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, it’s 1:30 Central and Matthews isn’t on roster and nobody is off…….only exchange today is Okert for Dobnak.

Am concerned they are waiting on some health news on Buxton and may put him on IL to make room for Matthews today. He’ll be optioned Wednesday. Could bring in a player overnight from Indy to take Buxton’s spot.

????

Blewett DFAd