Guardians 5, Twins 3: Guardians Devil Magic Upends Twins Shot at Series Win

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins entered Sunday's tilt with the Guardians with a chance to cut the division deficit to 1.5 games. Instead, Tanner Bibee was nails, and the Guardians offense came alive against the middle of the Twins bullpen to win the game and split the series.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: David Festa: 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (70 Pitches, 46 Strikes, 65.7%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton 2 (16)
Bottom 3 WPA: Cole Sands (-.251), Caleb Thielbar (-.157), Festa (-.090)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

To dramatic sorts who believe that a 3.5-game deficit is somehow insurmountable with more than a quarter of the season to go, this was a pretty big game. The Twins took the first two games of the four-game set via a doubleheader sweep before falling 2-1 on Saturday, with Gavin Williams dominating a Royce Lewis-less Minnesota lineup. The series finale featured rookie David Festa against de facto Cleveland ace Tanner Bibee. A win would put the Twins 1.5 games back with 45 games to play.

Festa started the day by walking Steven Kwan, with the Cleveland left fielder laying off some close pitches. Kwan has speed, but he stayed at first, with, hold on. Will Brennan was hitting second. I simply cannot fathom an organization with a sterling reputation for being analytics-forward playing a hitter whom they had just recently called up from the minors, with a career 89 OPS+ in 754 plate appearances, in the second spot. In a lineup that thinks of itself World Series contending, no less. It's not like they don't have options: José Ramírez, Josh Naylor and David Fry all hit behind the Quadruple-A outfielder. I'm fairly certain even Ron Gardenhire wouldn't do something this foolish if he were managing today. Brennan would finish 1-5.

Anyway, Brennan, Ramírez and Naylor all went down quietly. Tanner Bibee, for his part, has been an excellent starting pitcher since debuting early in 2023. With Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie both out of the picture (though McKenzie could return shortly following his demotion), Bibee has assumed the number-one spot in Cleveland's rotation. He relies on good velocity on his four-seam fastball that plays off his above-average secondary offerings, and he locates everything quite well. Following an injury scare involving his shoulder, Bibee had a bullpen session on Friday that went well enough for him to pitch today.

He looked okay, staying off of the barrels of Twins bats while painting the edges of the zone. He was sailing through the first four hitters, before he left a first-pitch fastball in the middle of the zone to Byron Buxton, who launched it 107 MPH into the left-field bleachers to score the game's first run.

He somehow left an even fatter pitch to Max Kepler, who roped it 109 MPH for a single. Kyle Farmer then nearly delivered a two-run homer, which would have been his first of the year, off a high slider.

Meanwhile, Festa was cruising, with a change-up heavy approach that Cleveland was aggressive against, resulting in a lot of quick outs. Festa flew a little too close to the sun against Ramírez in the fourth, though, as he left a change-up in the zone. Ramírez crushed it to tie the game.

Following a Naylor single on another changeup, a massive (though seemingly innocuous) call went against Festa against David Fry. Behind 2-1, Festa threw a change right on the corner, clearly a strike. It was called a ball instead, which made the count 3-1. Fry then walked on another close pitch, putting two Cleveland runners on with nobody out.

The Guardians ended up loading the bases following a groundout by Andrés Giménez and a walk to Cody Schneeman. That prompted Rocco Baldelli to pull Festa from the game in favor of Jorge Alcalá, who induced two weak flyouts to escape any further damage.

I cannot help but wonder what would have happened had the fourth pitch to Fry been called correctly. The expected numbers on a 3-1 count (1.026 OPS) are just massively different than a 2-2 (.586 OPS). Of course, no runs scored, but Festa may have remained in the game a bit longer had he recorded an out in the Fry at-bat.

The next eight outs went by in a flash for both teams. with Bibee and Alcalá breezing though the bottom of the fourth and top of the fifth, respectively. With two outs in the fifth, Christian Vázquez came about one inch from making the game 2-1, with his moonshot landing on top of the padding in left field and coming back to the field of play. Willi Castro then singled to right, but the ball was hit too hard, even with two outs, to score the plodding Vázquez. Brennan did throw home, resulting in Castro trying to take second on the throw. He was initially ruled out on the throw from catcher Bo Naylor, but confirmed safe after a challenge from Baldelli. It was all for naught, as Trevor Larnach struck out on a diving slider from Bibee.

Of course, these are the Guardians, and David Fry launched a no-doubt home run to break the tie off of Caleb Thielbar in the next frame.

Thielbar labored, after that, throwing 30 pitches and issuing two walks. He retired Bo Naylor, and was then relieved in favor of Cole Sands. In true Guardians fashion, Brayan Rocchio broke his bat and got a single, Steven Kwan rolled a dribbler (.140 xBA) by Castro at short and Brennan had slightly harder contact on his single to score Rocchio. The score was 5-1 when all was said and done, and somehow, my laptop survived being thrown out the window. It is truly astounding how this Guardians team has two functional starting pitchers and five of their lineup regulars wouldn't start on any other playoff team, yet they continue to torment the Twins.

Randy Dobnak delivered three scoreless innings, while the Twins were held scoreless by the the top two setup options for manager Steven Vogt, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis. For some reason, Vogt elected to lift Gaddis with two outs and a man on in the eighth inning, opting for the struggling Nick Sandlin against Buxton. Buxton launched a splitter in the middle of the zone into the flower beds in left field for his second homer, making it a 5-3 game.

Vogt made another questionable call in the ninth. With the first two batters aboard, Fry tried to bunt, and laid it down right in front of the plate, Vázquez picked it up and fired to third to record an out. Royce Lewis then relayed to first to get the double play, extinguishing the Cleveland rally.

The Twins made some noise in the ninth against Emmanuel Clase. Kepler dumped a Cleveland-style flare single to left, and Farmer drew a walk. Vázquez then lined a sharp single to left with two strikes, making it a bases-loaded, no-out situation. He finished the day 3-4 with two doubles. After a Castro strikeout, Larnach grounded a ball sharply up the middle that Platinum Glove winner Giménez expertly turned into a game-ending double play.

Trends:

Key:	Healthy/Performing	Healthy/Trending Up
	Hurt/Performing	Hurt/Trending Up
	Healthy/Slumping	Healthy/Trending Down
	Hurt/Slumping	Hurt/Trending Down
		Dead/IL/Minors
C	Ryan Jeffers	Christian Vazquez
1B	Carlos Santana	Alex Kirilloff	Jose Miranda
2B	Edouard Julien	Kyle Farmer
3B	Royce Lewis
SS	Carlos Correa	Brooks Lee
LF	Matt Wallner	Trevor Larnach	Austin Martin
CF	Byron Buxton	Manuel Margot
RF	Max Kepler
UTIL	Willi Castro
SP	Pablo Lopez	Bailey Ober	Joe Ryan	Simeon Woods Richardson	Chris Paddack	Louie Varland	David Festa
CR	Jhoan Duran	Griffin Jax
SR	Brock Stewart	Jorge Alcala	Cole Sands
MR	Trevor Richards	Caleb Thielbar	Steven Okert	Kody Funderburk
LR	Randy Dobnak

What’s Next: Pablo López (10-8, 4.74 ERA) takes on Brady Singer (8-7, 3.03 ERA) as the Twins welcome the Kansas City Royals to town for a three game set featuring the second and third wild card teams in the American League. The sinker-slider heavy Singer was a first round pick and highly touted as a prospect. He appeared to break out in 2022, with a 3.23 ERA and decent peripherals, was awful in 2023 and has rebounded to form a three headed rotation monster with Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans.

López stumbled against the Cubs his last time out, but was clearly fighting his command all night. He'll look to continue his strong second half against the offensively-challenged Royals.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Winder	42	0	0	29	0	71
Richards	41	0	9	0	0	50
Thielbar	25	0	20	0	32	77
Sands	26	0	18	0	9	53
Alcalá	0	0	16	0	15	31
Durán	0	0	14	0	0	14
Jax	0	0	12	0	0	12
Blewett	9	0	0	0	0	9
Dobnak	0	0	0	0	51	51

View full article

[Aggies7]

I don’t know if Cleveland has more raw talent than the twins, but they get much more out of what they have. Beaten us 7 out of 9. Let a great shot slip right through the ol’ fingers.

[BH67]

As Trevor Larnach faced Emmanuel Clase with one out and the winning run on base, I realized that a single pitch would determine the outcome of the game and lead many fans to an overstatement either of glee or gloom. That the Twins came back to have such an opportunity today is worth applauding.

Any team that gets in the playoffs has a chance to win it all, and the Twins are well on pace to be a participant. The big issue for me today is that Cleveland has three elite relievers who can get batters out when needed on consecutive days, and at this moment the Twins do not. Longer starts and a healthy lineup at full capacity will determine whether these Twins can overcome that in 2024.
 

[CRF]

After taking the 2 games on Friday, losing these last 2 are a big disappointment. We should have been able to take 3 of 4. Not good. 

[hitterscount]

Going into the series was hoping for a split, very deflating end to the series after the sweep on Friday. Four more games against Cleveland, hoping to still be fighting for a playoff spot come mid-September. Have to take advantage of every quality start from here with the starters we will be running out… the bats need to be better.

[bean5302]

The Twins lineup really has laid a couple eggs the last 2 games. Both games were totally winnable. Wasting that effort by SWR really hurts after this loss.

[ashbury]

Rocco Baldelli, Bullpen Whisperer, didn't have quite the same luck today as on Friday night with Sands and Thielbar. 😀

[darwin22]

After an unexpected sweep Friday to slice division deficit to 1.5 games, I made the following comment to my spouse:  "Is it too much to hope for a split the next 2 games?"  

Answer:  Yes it was

Just a totally frustrating last 2 days.  Wasted an excellent start by SWR yesterday and then Festa pitched like a rookie today.  41 pitches through 3 innings then appeared to lose his command and confidence after serving up game tying HR to Ramirez.  29 pitches in 4th to record 1 out.

No mystery to me why CLE has dominated Twins this season.  Hitters that work long counts, put the ball in play and come through with RISP.  On the other hand, we continue to trot out 37 year-old Caleb Thielbar and have hitters that can't hit with RISP.  Something like a putrid 8-65 with RISP on the season vs. Guardians.

Season and playoffs are still definitely within our grasp, but the last 2 days along with the loss of Ryan doesn't have me in an optimistic mood.

[h2oface]

Thielbar has a game or 2 that he doesn't suck, and at this point, gets lucky that the opposing team doesn't take advantage. But that is fools mica. Get rid of him. All year. Should have been during ST. Just get rid of him. It really is a travesty to keep this happening .

All set of for Castro. And Larnach. Hell, two bunts with the bases loaded and the score could have been tied.

[Althebum82]

Thielbar had two great innings in a tight game yesterday.  Then today happened, which has sadly been more typical of how his season has been overall.   I personally admire him, but the time has come to acknowledge what a liability he is on this team.  The fact that he is the only lefty still standing in the bullpen after starting the season with three is not sufficient justification to keep him around.

[mikelink45]

I can't blame Thielbar.  He does the best he can, but Rocco - have you looked at the stat sheet?  You pull Festa when he was a victim of a bad call and then go to Thielbar as your second option.   Come on - I have not made a bad Rocco post so far this year, but I cannot hold back today.  That was stupid! This is not Thielbar of the past, it is the current RP and he is not the person we want when the game is so important.  Nor is it right to pull a young pitcher who suffers from a bad call.  Come on - you are no longer a rookie manager. 

[thelanges5]

Next series is just as big, in fact with only 40 some games left in the season we have only big series left.

Still love this team, let’s go Twins!

[D.C Twins]

Thielbar... What a career... you maxed out your talent... congrats!

It's time for a DFA though....

[DocBauer]

A tough 4 game series and the pens were stretched for both teams. Survival of the fittest saw a split.  I didn't see much of these past 2 games at all, so I can only speak distantly about a few points.

I was surprised Thielbar was used that much today. Only Winder was used on Saturday. Not sure I like that move by Rocco at all.

I can't speak to Festa today and the squeeze he was under. But in his last start, the ump was calling the black most all game, but definitely squeezed Festa at times. He responded in that game. So yes, I have to wonder if today would have been a better overall outcome had he got that call. Call me impressed with the kid. But I'm not sure he's getting all the calls he should be as a rookie. But the Twins probably didn't lose the game due to that one call.

Give credit to a Cleveland club that eaks out wins with a good pen and solid approach at the plate with limited bat ability. 

My problem wad Saturday's game. They lost a potentially big inning when the Twins batters...I want to say Larnach and Wallner, but memory is clouded...swung at the first pitch instead of working the count. What was so frustrating is both of those guys usually lay off a couple pitches looking. And you always do that when it looks like the pitcher is tiring. 

Cleveland is not a bad team at all, despite some recent struggles. And I'd pick the Twins lineup and production every day over them. But the offense lost the game Saturday.

There's still over a month to play and the Twins can still catch the Guaedians if they just take care of business. But this 2-2 split is better than a loss series.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Thielbar has a game or 2 that he doesn't suck, and at this point, gets lucky that the opposing team doesn't take advantage. But that is fools mica. Get rid of him. All year. Should have been during ST. Just get rid of him. It really is a travesty to keep this happening .

All set of for Castro. And Larnach. Hell, two bunts with the bases loaded and the score could have been tied.

I thought about going completely off book and thinking it may be a good play for Castro to bunt………with all his skills, he is typically a terrible bunter! The last time he tried his finger got pinched between the bat & the pitched ball - that’s bunting faux pax 101! With his speed one would think he’d spend a little time in bunting to become at least average - he’s poor at this point.

I do think if Castro gives himself up by bunting, Larnach has to be swinging away with guys at 2nd & 3rd. BIG risk even if Castro can bunt with a force at home - execution would have to be spot on with the bunt.

Thielbar looked as good as ever Friday - didn’t see him this afternoon but I got the review, not good! Sands got paper cut to death (broken bat single - seeing eye grounder single) …….but Thielbar with a HR and then back to back walks, that’s not acceptable!!!

[JD-TWINS]

20 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

A tough 4 game series and the pens were stretched for both teams. Survival of the fittest saw a split.  I didn't see much of these past 2 games at all, so I can only speak distantly about a few points.

I was surprised Thielbar was used that much today. Only Winder was used on Saturday. Not sure I like that move by Rocco at all.

I can't speak to Festa today and the squeeze he was under. But in his last start, the ump was calling the black most all game, but definitely squeezed Festa at times. He responded in that game. So yes, I have to wonder if today would have been a better overall outcome had he got that call. Call me impressed with the kid. But I'm not sure he's getting all the calls he should be as a rookie. But the Twins probably didn't lose the game due to that one call.

Give credit to a Cleveland club that eaks out wins with a good pen and solid approach at the plate with limited bat ability. 

My problem wad Saturday's game. They lost a potentially big inning when the Twins batters...I want to say Larnach and Wallner, but memory is clouded...swung at the first pitch instead of working the count. What was so frustrating is both of those guys usually lay off a couple pitches looking. And you always do that when it looks like the pitcher is tiring. 

Cleveland is not a bad team at all, despite some recent struggles. And I'd pick the Twins lineup and production every day over them. But the offense lost the game Saturday.

There's still over a month to play and the Twins can still catch the Guaedians if they just take care of business. But this 2-2 split is better than a loss series.

Pretty sure Lewis swung at first pitch after two consecutive walks - I don’t get that, no matter who the batter might be.

3 for 22 with RISP for the Series …… that’s all there is to point to for the losses. Saturday each Team has 4 hits - an extremely well pitched game. Gotta hit better with RISP if you want to be successful.

[tony&rodney]

Real tough series for the bats with the exception of Wallner's swing and Buxton's blasts. The Twins build their position lineup with an emphasis on hitting over defense. In some respect this makes sense given how difficult it is to hit MLB pitching. We can read the quotes from the recent draft as how the Twins attempt to build offense/position strength.

Vazquez, Santana, and Buxton are above average. Kepler is average to above average. All of the others need to hit to stay in a lineup. Jeffers, Miranda, Wallner, Lewis, Martin, Margot, and Farmer are all below average defenders. Castro is a great utility player but not an everyday shortstop. Watching today's game from behind home plate I couldn't help but notice that the Guardians defenders were all a full step ahead of the Twins players, except for Buck. I'm not suggesting any changes and still feel like the Twins can win the ALC. However, the roster choices come with some developments. Balls that are outs for Cleveland's defense get through when the Twins are in the field. The most glaring example is the final play today. That is a two run base hit versus the Twins infield. If you need a couple more ... the ball that eluded Farmer is a sure catch by Gimenez .... the charge and throw home by Brennan saved a run. I was directly in line with that play and Vazquez would have been out by 30 feet. Still believe the Twins will win but there are going to be warts due to deficiencies in the field. If the bats can get hot and maintain a consistent approach, the fine pitching will keep the team in most every game.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Pretty sure Lewis swung at first pitch after two consecutive walks - I don’t get that, no matter who the batter might be.

3 for 22 with RISP for the Series …… that’s all there is to point to for the losses. Saturday each Team has 4 hits - an extremely well pitched game. Gotta hit better with RISP if you want to be successful.

Yep.

What's so FRUSTRATING is the Twins have been so good about avoiding K's this season and taking good AB, working the count. And for some reason, the last 2 games of the series, they fell in to the trap of swinging at the Guardians pitch.

Even with the Thielbar blow up, they should have won 3 of these games.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Real tough series for the bats with the exception of Wallner's swing and Buxton's blasts. The Twins build their position lineup with an emphasis on hitting over defense. In some respect this makes sense given how difficult it is to hit MLB pitching. We can read the quotes from the recent draft as how the Twins attempt to build offense/position strength.

Vazquez, Santana, and Buxton are above average. Kepler is average to above average. All of the others need to hit to stay in a lineup. Jeffers, Miranda, Wallner, Lewis, Martin, Margot, and Farmer are all below average defenders. Castro is a great utility player but not an everyday shortstop. Watching today's game from behind home plate I couldn't help but notice that the Guardians defenders were all a full step ahead of the Twins players, except for Buck. I'm not suggesting any changes and still feel like the Twins can win the ALC. However, the roster choices come with some developments. Balls that are outs for Cleveland's defense get through when the Twins are in the field. The most glaring example is the final play today. That is a two run base hit versus the Twins infield. If you need a couple more ... the ball that eluded Farmer is a sure catch by Gimenez .... the charge and throw home by Brennan saved a run. I was directly in line with that play and Vazquez would have been out by 30 feet. Still believe the Twins will win but there are going to be warts due to deficiencies in the field. If the bats can get hot and maintain a consistent approach, the fine pitching will keep the team in most every game.

I think Martin catches that soft little fliner that eluded Farmer. 

Farmer looked like he was running in cement overshoes.

 

[karcherd]

Farmer needs to be DFA'd, he should not play another inning for the Twins.  He has not earned his playing time this year.  And they won't even play him at SS which is he was originally brought in to play. 

[Old Twins Hat]

13 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Farmer needs to be DFA'd, he should not play another inning for the Twins.  He has not earned his playing time this year.  And they won't even play him at SS which is he was originally brought in to play. 

Yeah, no upside with Farmer.  Gotta roll dice and hope a next guy steps up -- Martin, and, er,... not a lot available,

Martin.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I think Martin catches that soft little fliner that eluded Farmer. 

Farmer looked like he was running in cement overshoes.

 

Agree. That play kind of made me sad a little bit. We all get older and just don't move as well as we did once upon a time and these MLB players are elite athletes .... and then they are not any more. Life happens.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Pretty sure Lewis swung at first pitch after two consecutive walks - I don’t get that, no matter who the batter might be.

Yes, true. Good to remember that Lewis has about the same experience as Matt Wallner and way less than Miiranda, Larnach, and Castro. Royce is pretty raw. The expectations seem high but his struggles are real. It was good to see him stay through a swing on his double to deep right center.

[yeahyabetcha]

51 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Yeah, no upside with Farmer.  Gotta roll dice and hope a next guy steps up -- Martin, and, er,... not a lot available,

Martin.

Martin doesn’t hit much and is not really a very good fielder.  They might as well bring back Julien to play 2b and send Martin back to the Saints.

[Fat Calvin]

18 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Martin doesn’t hit much and is not really a very good fielder.  They might as well bring back Julien to play 2b and send Martin back to the Saints.

And Julien has been hitting pretty good of late.

 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Martin doesn’t hit much and is not really a very good fielder.  They might as well bring back Julien to play 2b and send Martin back to the Saints.

 When he came back Julien was a K master and that is all; he fields worse than Martin.

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Fat Calvin said:

And Julien has been hitting pretty good of late.

 

LOL

[yeahyabetcha]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

 When he came back Julien was a K master and that is all; he field wore than Martin.

Beggars can’t be choosy.  I believe Julien is a better start at 2b tomorrow than either Martin or Farmer.

[knothole61]

Sad loss...they say "it's just one game" but this one feels bigger to me somehow. As long as these games are played by humans and not androids, forces such as momentum, confidence, spirit, and will must be reckoned with. We had a real chance to get a leg up on all of them this weekend and we let it slip away.

I fervently hope that the 2024 Twins have not, (in the immortal words of that great baseball fan William Shakespeare) missed that "...tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries." That could be the case--and yet, we're still only 3 games back in the loss column with the Guardians soon to face Milwaukee and the Yankees on the road in back-to-back series.

There's a bad taste tonight but still a reason to believe..

 

  

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

I don’t know if Cleveland has more raw talent than the twins, but they get much more out of what they have. Beaten us 7 out of 9. Let a great shot slip right through the ol’ fingers.

We have the Dobnak