In Wake of Joe Ryan Injury, Which Other Twins Carry Workload Concerns?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins are in the middle of the season’s most important games, and their starting rotation was just dealt a scary blow. Which players can step up in Ryan's prospective absence, and which need to be managed carefully?

Image courtesy of Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

As the Minnesota Twins navigate the second half of the MLB season, the team faces critical challenges concerning player workload management. With the intensity of late-summer games ramping up, several vital players grapple with the physical and mental strains of a long, grueling schedule. Balancing performance with preservation becomes crucial, as the team aims to maintain its competitive edge while avoiding injuries and burnout. Ensuring that the right players are fresh and ready for pivotal moments will be a delicate dance for the Twins’ coaching staff and medical team.

Among the players under the microscope are some standout performers, who have been shouldering heavy loads on the mound and the field. For pitchers, the high number of innings pitched and the frequency of appearances could lead to fatigue or strain. Position players, too, are at risk, as extended playtime can lead to wear and tear. Managing these workload concerns effectively will be essential, not only for the team’s immediate success, but also for sustaining their performance through the crucial stretch of the season.

Each of these guys fills a role that will not be easily replaced if they land on the injured list, especially if Joe Ryan has to be shelved in the wake of his injury Wednesday. Therefore, it's important to be proactive in their maintenance.

Simeon Woods Richardson, SP
Woods Richardson is a rookie getting his first extended taste of the big leagues, saving the back half of the Twins’ rotation. Like many young pitchers, there is a balancing act between getting a solid on-field performance while managing workload. In his professional career, his career high in innings pitched was last season, when he finished the year with 118 1/3 innings. So far, in 2024, he has accumulated 108 2/3 innings in his 22 starts between the MLB and Triple-A levels. His last two starts have made him look a little more human, as he allowed nine earned runs while failing to pitch more than four innings in either appearance. Minnesota may need to give him extra time off, as his innings count continues to rise. That just got harder to finagle, though.

David Festa, SP
Like Woods Richardson, Festa is a rookie starting pitcher getting a chance at the MLB level. In his professional career, there has only been one season where he passed the 100-inning threshold, and that was two seasons ago. In 2024, he's pitched 60 1/3 innings at Triple-A and 24 1/3 innings with the Twins. Last season, he tossed 92 1/3 innings between Double- and Triple-A, so he’s getting close to that mark. The Twins didn’t add starting pitching depth at the trade deadline. Instead, the club will be forced to rely on internal options like Festa.

His presence is even more critical to the rotation with questions about whether or not Chris Paddack will be able to return this season. Festa’s last start against the Cubs was the best of his career, and the Twins hope to see more of that from him down the stretch. If Ryan's injury turns out to be severe, Festa would be in position to make a playoff start--but that means keeping some starts short down the stretch, so he still has some bullets left come October.

Ryan Jeffers, C
The Twins try to walk a fine line with their catching duo, to keep them healthy and performing at the highest level. Jeffers started the season as one of the AL’s best hitters, before a midseason slump that impacted his overall numbers. There have been a few, scattered positive signs, but he has a measly .527 OPS in his first 13 games of the second half.

Jeffers is on pace to play over 100 games for the first time in his career, after playing a career-high 96 games last year. The Twins have given him more time at DH this season to try and keep his bat in the line-up. Minnesota will continue to use their catching rotation, but it will be critical for Jeffers to rediscover the offensive approach that made him so successful in the season’s early months.

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What other Twins players have workload concerns? Which player above will be watched most closely by the team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Riverbrian]

Small list.

I think you ignored everybody else on the roster. 

[William K Johnson]

Turn out the lights, the party's over.

[dxpavelka]

If you don't throw guys out there to ramp up their innings pitched and games played year over year they'll never ramp up their innings pitched and games played.  OH NO.  A pitcher might pitch more than 118 innings or a catcher might play more than a hundred games.  We need to stop coddling these guys and make them be baseball players.  I'm reminded of a note in TD a couple weeks ago about the final relief appearance of Nolan Ryan's career 50 years ago, against the Twins.  Which was preceded by a 10 inning complete game 3 days prior and followed with a complete game 2 days later.  And my first thought was about how that stretch ruined his career.  Beyond that point in his career he barely reached 4000 more strikeouts and only lead the league in strikeouts seven more times.  Poor guy.

[Coach Wheels]

Ryan injury is certainly concerning but the fact Buxton sat all 3 games and Correa wasn't available is disappointing also. I'm assuming Correa comes off the IL Friday, maybe Farmer gets DFA'd to keep the healthy guys on the roster.

When you choose to sit on your hands at the deadline and guys get dinged up in August and Sept, this is how you live; on the edge of a mess.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

2 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

Ryan injury is certainly concerning but the fact Buxton sat all 3 games and Correa wasn't available is disappointing also. I'm assuming Correa comes off the IL Friday, maybe Farmer gets DFA'd to keep the healthy guys on the roster.

When you choose to sit on your hands at the deadline and guys get dinged up in August and Sept, this is how you live; on the edge of a mess.

Correa probably out through the weekend (at least). He is going to do a rehab assignment before they activate him from the IL.

[Doctor Gast]

Times have changed, pitchers are throwing harder, and with more spin they can't take the innings that some pitchers were able to do in the past. SPs who pitched a lot of innings one season are rarely able to repeat the next year. Each pitcher are different at different stages.

I would have really liked to have some pitchers to do some spot starting the last 2 days against the Cubs. Pushing back Lopez & Ryan 2 days so they could start against CLE. Not only having them available for CLE but also giving the rotation a much needed rest entering this series.

In the beginning of the season, Paddack was heralded as Gray's replacement forecasting him to be able to pitch 150 innings,  Paddack has quickly hit a wall, SWR is close to it, Lopez felt out of whack, could that because of being weary, Ryan normally hits a wall this time of year, Festa is a rookie who needs to be taken slower. Even Ober IMO could use a breather. If you want to maximize the quality & quantity of innings pitched they have to be better managed

[wabene]

49 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Turn out the lights, the party's over.

Giving up already? 😂

[mikelink45]

I see this list as just the beginning.  How about Varland stepping up now?  Can Wallner keep destroying baseballs?  Can Kepler have a second half like last year?  Can Duran become the best closer again?  Can we have a good Thielbar again?  Is there another RP we can put in the BP (not the guy we traded for)?  Can Lewis stay healthy, can Buxton stay healthy, can Correa get healthy?  Can Lee take the next step and show why he is rated so high?  Will Lopez be a number 1 or number 3 SP?  Will Ober keep up his pitching and move to number one or fade as the season progresses?  Can Varland, Zebby, Festa, Richardson give us the starts we need to finish the season?  Will Rocco stop using Margot as a PH?  Can Larnach continue his MLB rise in production?  Can Miranda recover from the HBP recovery - the same thing that ruined Mauer and Morneau? Can Castro stay an all-star?  Can Margot, Santana, Vasquez continue to produce or will they revert to what they were to start the season?  Will the BP suffer from overuse?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The way I see it, the Twins' season now hinges on the arms of SWR, Festa and Varland. Who would have thought that back in March? 

[twinfan]

I don't buy this "innings" talk about pitchers. If you are a good pitcher, it should not matter how many innings was your longest previous season. Woods-Richardson has been mediocre for most of the season and it's difficult to imagine him being much better- no matter how many innings he pitches. Varland (to me) has been over-rated in what we expected of him. Festa finally showed what he is capable of doing and hopefully can come close to that over his next 4-5 starts. Should they start Dobnack if Ryan is out for a few weeks. Ryan seems to get weaker in the second half so maybe a break- even due to an injury- could help down the stretch. Is there a waiver starter available as a stopgap? Is there another minor leaguer who can step in for a couple of starts? 

The injured hitters need to return and be productive or it won't matter what the pitching looks like. Yes it was frustrating to not see us pick up a starter but we have kept our main corps for now. The weekend will be a big one but Cleveland hasn't been playing well so maybe we can take the series in close games. Just don't let them have the lead in the ninth cause Classe is the GOTT (greatest of this time).

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

I'm reminded of a note in TD a couple weeks ago about the final relief appearance of Nolan Ryan's career 50 years ago, against the Twins.  Which was preceded by a 10 inning complete game 3 days prior and followed with a complete game 2 days later.  And my first thought was about how that stretch ruined his career.  Beyond that point in his career he barely reached 4000 more strikeouts and only lead the league in strikeouts seven more times.  Poor guy.

People always throw out Nolan Ryan but seem to forget about the hundreds of other careers ended early.

One guy survived that kind of workload. What does that tell you?

[chpettit19]

Ryan Jeffers has caught 56 games. 56. This talk of him wearing down is ridiculous. He's going to catch roughly 81 games, just as they planned. If he can't catch 81 games and DH another 30 they should trade him. If DHing is wearing him down they should trade him. 

If catching 81 games is going to wear down 27 year old Ryan Jeffers, how broken down is 33 year old Christian Vazquez going to be?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Interesting factoid...

In 2006, Francisco Liriano went down on August 7th. The Twins were 10.5 out. The post-season was a major disaster but goes to show, never know what will happen.

[Trov]

I would love to see the data on pitchers and innings pitched over a season, and injuries.  I just wonder how having a guy pitch 100 innings one season then shutting down for a period of time, only to ramp back up to then increase to say 120 innings the next season.  Does that really reduce injuries over the long term?  I also wonder how many pitchers do long distance running these days and work on their leg strength.  I say that because some of the bests pitchers in the past would talk about how much they worked on leg strength and that is what allowed them to pitch so much. 

I just wonder how much shutting down for months really helps build up for the future? I have not seen the medical data but sure it is out there. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

People always throw out Nolan Ryan but seem to forget about the hundreds of other careers ended early.

One guy survived that kind of workload. What does that tell you?

Nolan Ryan as a selling point on workloads and Greg Maddux success as a selling point for not needing velocity are my biggest pet peeves in pitching discussions. Picking the absolute best ever, complete outlier and saying "see, people can do it" is so ridiculous to me.

[Beast]

You had to know some kind retribution was coming from the baseball gods.  Can’t thumb your nose at free agency and the trade deadline without consequences.

[DJL44]

There was a week-long break for the All-Star Game not even a month ago. I understand the need for recovery but total innings pitched is a bad way to measure fatigue.

[Linus]

58 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

The way I see it, the Twins' season now hinges on the arms of SWR, Festa and Varland. Who would have thought that back in March? 

Me. When they screwed up the off season I posted (and have posted many times since) they were one starter injury from a big problem. Frankly it’s amazing they have made it as long as they have without an injury to their best starters. I know people are sick of rehashing this but this is on ownership. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

Me. When they screwed up the off season I posted (and have posted many times since) they were one starter injury from a big problem. Frankly it’s amazing they have made it as long as they have without an injury to their best starters. I know people are sick of rehashing this but this is on ownership. 

Yup. 100% at the feet of the Pohlad's.

[tony&rodney]

The baseball season is long and conditioning always plays a role eventually. The vagaries of risk associated with pitching just exasperates health concerns. However, every pitcher is different and thus faces separate challenges. Pablo has to find a way of avoiding little breakdowns of command. I'm still surprised that anyone thought Paddack would ever get past 125 innings. Ober looks like he should be strong throughout the year. Pitchers can suffer tweaks like Ryan did yesterday and return healthy after a few weeks off. It is looking like the Twins will need Festa and Varland to step forward while continuing to get 5 innings each start from Woods Richardson. Reaching down for starts from Matthews or Morris might be tough.

This is the time for the hitters to step forward with a much more sustained attack mode. If the bats are going to score 2-3 runs a game, then the Twins may be in trouble. I am expecting a better approach at the plate across the board. Only Castro and Santana are among the top 100 in baseball with ABs. The position players should be fresh enough to pick up the slack for the pitching staff.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

Me. When they screwed up the off season I posted (and have posted many times since) they were one starter injury from a big problem. Frankly it’s amazing they have made it as long as they have without an injury to their best starters. I know people are sick of rehashing this but this is on ownership. 

Well, the failure to trade for a decent starting pitcher was actually Falvey & Crew's fault. There were deals to be made and identifying DeSclafani as the choice was ridiculous.

If you are referring to the failures of signing a free agent like Blake Snell or others, then your point may make some sense. Sonny Gray was never resigning here though and most of the others (some have produced) would have been poor choices.

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, the failure to trade for a decent starting pitcher was actually Falvey & Crew's fault. There were deals to be made and identifying DeSclafani as the choice was ridiculous.

If you are referring to the failures of signing a free agent like Blake Snell or others, then your point may make some sense. Sonny Gray was never resigning here though and most of the others (some have produced) would have been poor choices.

They were forced to trade Polanco to free up payroll. As we learned that trade chip wasn’t going to bring in a good starter so we got DeScalfini. They were never going to sign a free agent starter. 

[NYCTK]

Honestly, the Twins don't deserve to win the division. Guardians pulled winner moves with a winning team mentality. Whereas the Twins are struggling to throw a warm body into the rotation, the Guardians traded for a Starter who will be making his season debut against the Twins. 

Rather than lean on their crappy OF (Brennan/Margot) with a sub 90 OPS+ and continue to give him more than the 250 PAs he's already received, they upgraded their OF by acquiring Lane Thomas. 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

They were forced to trade Polanco to free up payroll. As we learned that trade chip wasn’t going to bring in a good starter so we got DeScalfini. They were never going to sign a free agent starter. 

We will just agree to disagree on that trade. Polanco's money wasn't much more than DeSclafani, Topa, and Margot. Falvey wasn't willing to attach another bat or arm to entice a good offer; there were opportunities. In any event the roster was put together by Falvey and he wanted to free up 2B for Julien, knowing there were others who could also play the position. If money needed to be scuttled so badly, Farmer and Thielbar were easy calls to save $10 million.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

If you don't throw guys out there to ramp up their innings pitched and games played year over year they'll never ramp up their innings pitched and games played.  OH NO.  A pitcher might pitch more than 118 innings or a catcher might play more than a hundred games.  We need to stop coddling these guys and make them be baseball players.  I'm reminded of a note in TD a couple weeks ago about the final relief appearance of Nolan Ryan's career 50 years ago, against the Twins.  Which was preceded by a 10 inning complete game 3 days prior and followed with a complete game 2 days later.  And my first thought was about how that stretch ruined his career.  Beyond that point in his career he barely reached 4000 more strikeouts and only lead the league in strikeouts seven more times.  Poor guy.

Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Terry Mulholland... Some guys are just built differently, their bodies can take more abuse.  (Mulholland famously said he only needed 7 warm up pitches)

The pitching motion itself is destructive.  It puts undue stress on everything.  With the focus on increased velocity and spin rates, pitchers bodies are under more and more stress.  Tommy John surgery is now the norm, not the exception.

I think we are approaching the apex of the cost/benefit of increased speed over endurance, especially factoring in dollar investment into each pitcher.  Complete games are basically unheard now.  7 innings from a SP is a luxury, with 5 innings closer to the norm.  Teams that do not have multiple "2 inning" RP can't survive.

Baseball knows changes are coming.  Forcing teams to identify pitchers vs position players.  Looking at the Twins, where most everyone on the roster can play 2+ positions, it only makes sense to see guys that could potentially do both (think Drew Butera) could force revisions to that rule.

[mrcharlie]

35 minutes ago, Trov said:

I would love to see the data on pitchers and innings pitched over a season, and injuries.  I just wonder how having a guy pitch 100 innings one season then shutting down for a period of time, only to ramp back up to then increase to say 120 innings the next season.  Does that really reduce injuries over the long term?  I also wonder how many pitchers do long distance running these days and work on their leg strength.  I say that because some of the bests pitchers in the past would talk about how much they worked on leg strength and that is what allowed them to pitch so much. 

I just wonder how much shutting down for months really helps build up for the future? I have not seen the medical data but sure it is out there. 

Interesting....

I too recall past discussions of core and leg work among pitchers.  I would add: there are many throwers now, not so many pitchers.  Pitchers don't use max effort on every pitch, saving for critical moments as they read the game situation.  Throwers are all out effort and rely more on overpowering the batter.  MLB at some point decided it is better to have bunch of Throwers who can go 150 innings max vs. Pitchers who can go 180 innings and more.   I believe this was a response to the rise in offense across the league these last 10(?) years.

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

We will just agree to disagree on that trade. Polanco's money wasn't much more than DeSclafani, Topa, and Margot. Falvey wasn't willing to attach another bat or arm to entice a good offer; there were opportunities. In any event the roster was put together by Falvey and he wanted to free up 2B for Julien, knowing there were others who could also play the position. If money needed to be scuttled so badly, Farmer and Thielbar were easy calls to save $10 million.

For sure Falvey could have done things differently but his parameters were dictated by payroll cuts.  Our surplus was at second base -  I wanted to trade Julien and a prospect to get one of Seattles starters. They had to trade Polanco to save the money and they screw that up. I’m not absolving Falvey of anything but the payroll cuts have been a huge factor in everything the Twins have done or not done since last season. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Times have changed, pitchers are throwing harder, and with more spin they can't take the innings that some pitchers were able to do in the past. SPs who pitched a lot of innings one season are rarely able to repeat the next year. Each pitcher are different at different stages.

I would have really liked to have some pitchers to do some spot starting the last 2 days against the Cubs. Pushing back Lopez & Ryan 2 days so they could start against CLE. Not only having them available for CLE but also giving the rotation a much needed rest entering this series.

In the beginning of the season, Paddack was heralded as Gray's replacement forecasting him to be able to pitch 150 innings,  Paddack has quickly hit a wall, SWR is close to it, Lopez felt out of whack, could that because of being weary, Ryan normally hits a wall this time of year, Festa is a rookie who needs to be taken slower. Even Ober IMO could use a breather. If you want to maximize the quality & quantity of innings pitched they have to be better managed

There aren’t 3 other guys around to take innings that Team doesn’t want Festa - SWR or anyone else to throw. WHO “spot starts” on Tuesday & Wednesday to push guys back?

The All-star break ended 17 days ago!!! There was a 5 day break PLUS the usual 5 days of rest for each guy.

At this point, there are 2 rookies in the 3-4 spots in the rotation and Varland is squarely in the mix as the 5th guy for the next month……..Matthews almost certainly has to start Tuesday since none of the other 4 guys will be rested.

Fingers crossed that Paddack & Ryan can be available again in a month!

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Linus said:

For sure Falvey could have done things differently but his parameters were dictated by payroll cuts.  Our surplus was at second base -  I wanted to trade Julien and a prospect to get one of Seattles starters. They had to trade Polanco to save the money and they screw that up. I’m not absolving Falvey of anything but the payroll cuts have been a huge factor in everything the Twins have done or not done since last season. 

With 20/20 hindsight they should have traded BOTH Polanco and Julien and given the job to Willi Castro.