The Minnesota Twins' Costly Draft Picks: Ranking Their Worst Selections Since 2017

[Cody Christie]

The MLB Draft offers franchises an opportunity to alter their future by selecting players who will have a long-term impact. Unfortunately, the Twins have seen some poor draft picks since the current front office took over.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Aaron Sabato)

The Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in late 2016, to overhaul the baseball operations department. Over the last seven years, there have been a bevy of good and bad draft picks, a trend that would be true for any front office. Baseball’s draft differs from that of other major sports leagues, because there is rarely an immediate impact at the highest level. It takes time and patience as players develop in a team’s farm system. We're now deep enough into the Falvey-Levine regime, though, to do some close study of their picks and the resulting impact.

The MLB Draft is a pivotal event for every team, offering a chance to secure future stars and bolster organizational depth. Recent drafts for the Twins have yielded some promising, esciting talent, but also included selections that fell far short of expectations. Since 2017, the Twins have made several picks that, in hindsight, did not pan out as hoped, impacting the team's roster and organizational depth.

5. RHP Matt Canterino
2019 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (54th Overall)
Canterino hasn’t pitched a professional inning since 2022 and began the 2024 season on the injured list with a right subscapularis strain. He missed all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he had in August 2022. The Twins felt comfortable enough in his progress to add him to the 40-man roster entering the 2023 season, and the team has yet to drop him, even with his injury struggles. Canterino has put up video game numbers when he is healthy (1.91 ERA, 13.8 K/9), so he must get healthy to provide value in the high minors. 

4. RHP Landon Leach
2017 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (37th Overall)
Leach might be an unfamiliar name to Twins fans. He was in the first draft class under the current regime and topped out at Low-A in the Twins organization. His time with the Twins was limited to 24 appearances due to injuries, and the Twins released him after the 2021 campaign. He posted a 4.39 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in 69 2/3 innings. Leach signed with the Braves organization for the 2022 season and made 17 appearances before electing free agency. Out of the players on this list, he is the only one out of baseball, and he never pitched above High-A. 

3. RHP Connor Prielipp
2022 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (48th Overall)
Any drafting process has risk and reward, and the Twins knew they were making a risky selection with Prielipp. During his sophomore season, he was viewed as a potential top-10 pick in the MLB Draft, but he dropped to the second round after having Tommy John surgery while at the University of Alabama. His time in the Twins organization has been limited to two appearances, as he underwent a second UCL surgery last summer. When healthy, he has a fastball-slider combination that wowed talent evaluators and the Twins front office. He still has a chance to impact the big-league roster, but arm concerns have followed him since he was an amateur.

2. 1B Aaron Sabato
2020 MLB Draft: 1st Round Pick (27th Overall)
The 2020 MLB Draft was unique, because the pandemic shut down high school and college seasons. Looking back, the first round of this draft has been a mess, as teams struggled to identify potential talent. Three of the top six picks have negative WAR at the big-league level, with the No. 1 overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, accounting for -1.7.

Many evaluators viewed Sabato as a stretch as a first-round pick, because he was projected to provide little defensive value. He would need to produce big power numbers in the minors to live up to his first-round billing. In four professional seasons, he has posted a .776 OPS, while striking out more than 30% of the time. There have been flashes of his prestigious power but insufficient contact to be considered a top prospect.

1. SS Keoni Cavaco
2019 MLB Draft: 1st Round Pick (13th Overall)
Cavaco was a unique player heading into the 2019 MLB Draft, because he was a late bloomer. He hadn’t been featured on many of the summer showcase circuits leading into his senior season, which gave teams less opportunity to see him against top competition. Some viewed him as a potential five-tool talent, but he has failed to showcase those skills since signing with the Twins. He has slid down the defensive spectrum from shortstop to third base and now to first. Offensively, he hit .212/.267/.335 with little power and a high strikeout rate across parts of five seasons. The Twins released him Monday, imperiling his future in affiliated baseball and sealing his status as the biggest disappointment of the current regime's Draft record. 

Picking Cavaco also feels especially egregious, because of the players taken shortly after him. Bryson Stott (7.1 WAR), Corbin Carroll (7.0 WAR), and George Kirby (6.4 WAR) were taken in the next seven picks. Second-guessing a draft pick is common among fans, but it's tough to see these solid MLB regulars thriving, as Cavaco departs the organization. 

The Minnesota Twins' draft history since 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations. From top picks like Cavaco and Sabato to promising pitchers like Canterino and Prielipp, the Twins have encountered challenges developing their draft talent into impactful major-league contributors. These selections illustrate the inherent risks and uncertainties of the MLB Draft, where even top prospects can face unforeseen obstacles on their path to professional success. While setbacks are inevitable in any draft process, learning from past selections can help the Twins make more informed decisions and build a stronger foundation for sustained success in the competitive landscape of Major League Baseball.

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Should any other players be added to the rankings? Should the order change? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[LambchoP]

You never know for sure with prospects. It seems there is an alarming pattern with top twins picks and their injuries. Is it our medical staff, are we picking injury prone guys, what is it? Royce, Buxton, Kiriloff, Canterino, Prelipp, now this year Jenkins, ERod, Gonzalez....

[Tibs]

I don't think it's exactly fair to include Canterino or Prielipp on this list. Pitchers get injured. That's why the acronym TINSTAPP exists. Canterino is clearly a good pitcher in the time he is healthy. As far as Prielipp, any time the Twins can draft a top 10 prospect with top of the rotation potential out of college in the 2nd round I'm all for it. They aren't getting top of the rotation guys in free agency so the draft is exactly where to take that risk.

Cavaco was a questionable pick at the time and unfortunately they missed that one by a mile.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Sabato was a weird pick. Kind of a throw back player. I imagine his comparable would be Steve Balboni.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Availability or lack thereof derails a lot of careers but I don't think you can say Canterino and Prielipp are among their worst picks. Still early.

[nova_twins]

The draft results take so long to ultimately play out that it's not easy to evaluate.

One wrong way of doing it is cherry picking, like this article. What if someone got in a car accident, would that make it a bad pick in retrospect? The Sabato pick was under unusual circumstances. Pitchers get hurt. Etc.

The relevant question for analysis is how the Twins are drafting compared to other teams. 

[terrydactyls]

Canterino and Prielipp were not bad picks.  It just hasn't worked out they way everyone hoped.  It's like when I was in college and I asked out a gorgeous woman.  She agreed to go out with me but cancelled at the last minute because her sorority called an emergency meeting she had to attend.  I didn't make a bad pick.  It was just an unfortunate result.  I'm sure the sorority meeting was very important.  At least that's what I've been telling myself for the past 55 years.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins are an analytically-minded team. In the 5-tool grading system, power takes the lion's share of the grading. So it's logical that if the Twins don't have a clear-cut 5-tool guy like Jenkins, Lee & Lewis they lean towards the big college bat that lacks the speed, defense, hit & sometimes arm. IMO you 1st develop the defense, base-running & hit tools after that you develop the power tool but the Twins focus on the power & IMO ignore the defense, base-running & hitting. 

MY priority is defense (that includes fielding, speed, & arm) at a premium position then getting on base (hitting), power is last. I was against the Sabato & Cavaco as 1st round selection. I've been apprehensive about Larnach, if he hadn't totally changed his approach & turned around his hitting this year, he could have made the 1st round bust.

Although Canterino's dream is to be a SP, he should have been transferred to the BP prior to his last injury, He still has a chance excel in the BP but his SP days are over. I can't understand how Prielipp is constantly ranked so high! When he has practically no pro history. Twins have been taking their young SP prospects slowly because of the frailty of young arms.

[Guest]

Cavaco has always been a head-scratcher.  Prielipp and Canterino are still worth a bit of patience given their upside.  Sabato is enjoying his most productive season thus far.  Drafting Sabato in round one remains questionable.  But, before we cast these guys off, bear in mind two words:  Brent Rooker.  He'd look pretty good in LF right now.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Worst article ever

[Ricky Vaughn]

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 I can't understand how Prielipp is constantly ranked so high! When he has practically no pro history. Twins have been taking their young SP prospects slowly because of the frailty of young arms.

Not only does he have no history as pro, There's not much of an amateur record either. Most of his ranking has been based on potential not actual results.

[Linus]

I view Prielipp as a calculated gamble. The only reason he was available later was his injury history.  They gambled and probably lost but that is much different than blowing the evaluation. I can kind of understand the Cavaco pick in theory - toolsy high school SS but it appears the Twins overrated him based on other team’s interest. The Sabato pick was the one I really disliked. A first round pick for a guy who’s upside was CJ Cron. No need to spend a high pick on a player profile that is available every year for cheap. I would have selected the best college pitcher available.  When it comes to second round picks and later I just think it’s a roulette wheel both good and bad. If the Twins thought Julien would ever make the bigs they wouldn’t have waited until the 17th round to take him. 

[Guest]

Great click bait! Keep up the good/fun articles!!

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Tibs said:

I don't think it's exactly fair to include Canterino or Prielipp on this list. Pitchers get injured. That's why the acronym TINSTAPP exists. Canterino is clearly a good pitcher in the time he is healthy. As far as Prielipp, any time the Twins can draft a top 10 prospect with top of the rotation potential out of college in the 2nd round I'm all for it. They aren't getting top of the rotation guys in free agency so the draft is exactly where to take that risk.

Cavaco was a questionable pick at the time and unfortunately they missed that one by a mile.

I feel like those are both measured risks and both could still pay off, any pitcher from a Rice workload is a risk.  Jury is out and taking a stab at a lottery ticket from time to time isn't the worst thing.

The guy at #4 that doesn't have a click link and I hadn't heard of before should be higher.

[Major League Ready]

I hated the Cavaco pick and did not care for the Sabato pick.  The rest are not remotely in the same league.  Canterino and Prielipp were good picks.  Tyler Jay is another one I really disliked and I was not big on Gordon either.

[roger]

Can not disagree more, Cody, as to your including Prielipp and Canterino.  Both are very talented and made a ton of sense at the time.  Canterino has proven to be a top talent, when healthy.  I continue to believe that both will someday be effective pitchers for the Twins.  Whether that is as a starter or reliever remains to be seen, although both are more likely to be working out of the pen.  My hope is that we still see Canterino later this summer and Prielipp next spring.

Thought it was interesting that I made an unfavorable comment about Cavaco yesterday, then saw this morning that he had been released.  Given that he was a relatively high pick, that remains a terrible decision.  Regarding this subject, does anyone remember who was it, maybe something Lee, who worked his way into being a free agent by getting Mr. Ryan to forego sending him a contract?  Or at least something like that.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Such a dumb article.  Do you have any idea what the hit rate on picks is,  for the round and the pick in the round.  Lets just say its not very high.  Then you add in whether a pitcher or a hitter,  and whether a high schooler or college player.  Throw in injuries relative under performance and you will get some players that don't perform.  Priellip and Canterino still have a possibility of being good players for the Twins, unlike Cavaco their is still a possiblity they get and remain healthy.  Both appear to have decent talent,  ultimately that was the issue with Cavaco.  This organization the last thing I would say is a poor drafting team.  Honestly they are easily top 10.   Last years draft will have huge ramifications on the organization and how its drafting is viewed.  I am very curious to see how they do this year.  

[SaberNerd]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I can't understand how Prielipp is constantly ranked so high! When he has practically no pro history.

In the little he threw in college, pre-draft, and offseason for the Twins, the metrics on his slider were insane.  He was throwing it upper-80s with >3000RPM spin.  He also had a fastball has the type of spin that misses bats.

 

He may never stay healthy.  He may struggle to throw strikes.  He may not have the same level of stuff when he comes back.  But he has shown a slider than could be one of the best in all of baseball.

[Linus]

58 minutes ago, roger said:

Can not disagree more, Cody, as to your including Prielipp and Canterino.  Both are very talented and made a ton of sense at the time.  Canterino has proven to be a top talent, when healthy.  I continue to believe that both will someday be effective pitchers for the Twins.  Whether that is as a starter or reliever remains to be seen, although both are more likely to be working out of the pen.  My hope is that we still see Canterino later this summer and Prielipp next spring.

Thought it was interesting that I made an unfavorable comment about Cavaco yesterday, then saw this morning that he had been released.  Given that he was a relatively high pick, that remains a terrible decision.  Regarding this subject, does anyone remember who was it, maybe something Lee, who worked his way into being a free agent by getting Mr. Ryan to forego sending him a contract?  Or at least something like that.

Travis Lee - first base slugger. This is from memory but I believe there was a deadline for an offer to be tendered and the Twins missed it. He became a free agent and signed elsewhere but don’t think was ever an elite player. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

56 minutes ago, Linus said:

Travis Lee - first base slugger. This is from memory but I believe there was a deadline for an offer to be tendered and the Twins missed it. He became a free agent and signed elsewhere but don’t think was ever an elite player. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leetr01.shtml

Lee had a decent career but wasn't anything special.

[Fatbat]

The Cavaco and Sabato picks were head scratchers from the first moment. Back then I figured that people in the org had great intel that the general public didnt.  I read more on the top 250 draft eligible players now than I used to,  the intel that the org had back then was horrible. Those picks should never have been made.  It doesn’t mean we would have had success with players (B) but at least it would have been something.  The past few drafts, it seems that we have been dialed in on some potential greatness.  Analytics seem to help in drafting potential but so should human drive and discipline. The kids need to have that extraordinary edge. Most dont have it at 18-21. The ones that “NEED” to find it should be high on the draft board. 
we wont always pick the right kids, but we are doing better at excluding the wrong ones. 

[DocBauer]

Very disappointed here.

If you draft someone high, and you give them chances, and they just never produce and wash out, you can call that a bad or wasted pick. An example is the recently releases Cavaco. 

Probably going to end up saying the same about Sabato, but since he's still playing and performing at SOME kind of productive level, it's fair to call him a disappointment or wait a little longer to say so. Doesn't matter to me either way.

But  Canterino HAS performed, and performed ar a high level since he's been drafted. Now that his TJ has been completed, and he's still on the 40 man, there's reasonable hope he will recover from this shoulder injury and find a role in the pen. Think Stewart as a comp. But he is NOT a bad, wasted, or "worst" pick when he flashes that much talent and potential and is still part of the organization and still has a chance to make it.

Ditto for Prielipp, who everyone KNEW was coming off surgery and was a risk. He was also a top 10 talent and praise was generally heaped on the Twins for taking a shot on such a talented prospect. He's had a brace placed on his elbow and should be back in 2025, if not late this season, to try and get his career going. But not only has he not been a drafted player who's underperformed, he was a known high risk high reward when drafted. So before he even gets a chance to see what he might become he's already a bad, wasted, worst pick?

This is like speculating the Twins 7th round pick in the upcoming draft, from Louisiana NW State, coming off surgery but was 1st team all conference and 2nd team All American is a bad, wasted, worst ever pick before he gets a chance to see if he can actually be good.

[CharlieDee]

Using a first round pick on Cavaco was such a surprise at the time.  I think our F.O. was trying to show that they were smarter than all the experts.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, CharlieDee said:

Using a first round pick on Cavaco was such a surprise .  I think our F.O. was trying to show that they were smarter than all the experts.

YOu think they wasted a pick to show up other people? That they didn't think he'd be very good to great?

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Brent Rooker.  He'd look pretty good in LF right now.

Rooker is tied for the AL lead in strikeouts.  The readership here would be going nuts if he were still on the team.

[David HK]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

Travis Lee - first base slugger. This is from memory but I believe there was a deadline for an offer to be tendered and the Twins missed it. He became a free agent and signed elsewhere but don’t think was ever an elite player. 

He had some decent seasons, but certainly no great shakes, and definitely not all-star caliber.  It was also no secret that he really, really didn't want to come to Minny.

[Wizard11]

Travis Lee was not drafted by this front office which is the basis of the article.  I also find this piece to be clickbait.   Pretty lame.  This front office did use high picks on Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins just to name 3 easy ones. 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Tyler Jay is another one I really disliked

Yes indeed, Tyler Jay may have been the biggest swing and miss of the bunch. And although I liked Nick Gordan, and kept hoping he would turn into a good everyday player, that pick is looking like a stinker too. I will also agree with the posters who think that including Prieilipp and Canterino was unnecessary. 

[dxpavelka]

"The Minnesota Twins' draft history since 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations."   The Minnesota Twins' draft history prior to 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations.   Every team's draft history since 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations.   Every team's draft history prior to 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations.

[bigdave]

Watching Cavaco in the minor league setting was interesting. He seemed to not have a care in the world. He had his money and he wasn't going to put in much effort after getting that big check. How young players react to getting paid is always a question mark in drafts and Cavaco clearly was just in it for the money.