The Minnesota Twins' Costly Draft Picks: Ranking Their Worst Selections Since 2017

You never know for sure with prospects. It seems there is an alarming pattern with top twins picks and their injuries. Is it our medical staff, are we picking injury prone guys, what is it? Royce, Buxton, Kiriloff, Canterino, Prelipp, now this year Jenkins, ERod, Gonzalez....

I don't think it's exactly fair to include Canterino or Prielipp on this list. Pitchers get injured. That's why the acronym TINSTAPP exists. Canterino is clearly a good pitcher in the time he is healthy. As far as Prielipp, any time the Twins can draft a top 10 prospect with top of the rotation potential out of college in the 2nd round I'm all for it. They aren't getting top of the rotation guys in free agency so the draft is exactly where to take that risk.

Cavaco was a questionable pick at the time and unfortunately they missed that one by a mile.

Sabato was a weird pick. Kind of a throw back player. I imagine his comparable would be Steve Balboni.

Availability or lack thereof derails a lot of careers but I don't think you can say Canterino and Prielipp are among their worst picks. Still early.

The draft results take so long to ultimately play out that it's not easy to evaluate.

One wrong way of doing it is cherry picking, like this article. What if someone got in a car accident, would that make it a bad pick in retrospect? The Sabato pick was under unusual circumstances. Pitchers get hurt. Etc.

The relevant question for analysis is how the Twins are drafting compared to other teams. 

Twins are an analytically-minded team. In the 5-tool grading system, power takes the lion's share of the grading. So it's logical that if the Twins don't have a clear-cut 5-tool guy like Jenkins, Lee & Lewis they lean towards the big college bat that lacks the speed, defense, hit & sometimes arm. IMO you 1st develop the defense, base-running & hit tools after that you develop the power tool but the Twins focus on the power & IMO ignore the defense, base-running & hitting. 

MY priority is defense (that includes fielding, speed, & arm) at a premium position then getting on base (hitting), power is last. I was against the Sabato & Cavaco as 1st round selection. I've been apprehensive about Larnach, if he hadn't totally changed his approach & turned around his hitting this year, he could have made the 1st round bust.

Although Canterino's dream is to be a SP, he should have been transferred to the BP prior to his last injury, He still has a chance excel in the BP but his SP days are over. I can't understand how Prielipp is constantly ranked so high! When he has practically no pro history. Twins have been taking their young SP prospects slowly because of the frailty of young arms.

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 I can't understand how Prielipp is constantly ranked so high! When he has practically no pro history. Twins have been taking their young SP prospects slowly because of the frailty of young arms.

Not only does he have no history as pro, There's not much of an amateur record either. Most of his ranking has been based on potential not actual results.

I view Prielipp as a calculated gamble. The only reason he was available later was his injury history.  They gambled and probably lost but that is much different than blowing the evaluation. I can kind of understand the Cavaco pick in theory - toolsy high school SS but it appears the Twins overrated him based on other team’s interest. The Sabato pick was the one I really disliked. A first round pick for a guy who’s upside was CJ Cron. No need to spend a high pick on a player profile that is available every year for cheap. I would have selected the best college pitcher available.  When it comes to second round picks and later I just think it’s a roulette wheel both good and bad. If the Twins thought Julien would ever make the bigs they wouldn’t have waited until the 17th round to take him. 

I hated the Cavaco pick and did not care for the Sabato pick.  The rest are not remotely in the same league.  Canterino and Prielipp were good picks.  Tyler Jay is another one I really disliked and I was not big on Gordon either.

Can not disagree more, Cody, as to your including Prielipp and Canterino.  Both are very talented and made a ton of sense at the time.  Canterino has proven to be a top talent, when healthy.  I continue to believe that both will someday be effective pitchers for the Twins.  Whether that is as a starter or reliever remains to be seen, although both are more likely to be working out of the pen.  My hope is that we still see Canterino later this summer and Prielipp next spring.

Thought it was interesting that I made an unfavorable comment about Cavaco yesterday, then saw this morning that he had been released.  Given that he was a relatively high pick, that remains a terrible decision.  Regarding this subject, does anyone remember who was it, maybe something Lee, who worked his way into being a free agent by getting Mr. Ryan to forego sending him a contract?  Or at least something like that.

Such a dumb article.  Do you have any idea what the hit rate on picks is,  for the round and the pick in the round.  Lets just say its not very high.  Then you add in whether a pitcher or a hitter,  and whether a high schooler or college player.  Throw in injuries relative under performance and you will get some players that don't perform.  Priellip and Canterino still have a possibility of being good players for the Twins, unlike Cavaco their is still a possiblity they get and remain healthy.  Both appear to have decent talent,  ultimately that was the issue with Cavaco.  This organization the last thing I would say is a poor drafting team.  Honestly they are easily top 10.   Last years draft will have huge ramifications on the organization and how its drafting is viewed.  I am very curious to see how they do this year.  

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I can't understand how Prielipp is constantly ranked so high! When he has practically no pro history.

In the little he threw in college, pre-draft, and offseason for the Twins, the metrics on his slider were insane.  He was throwing it upper-80s with >3000RPM spin.  He also had a fastball has the type of spin that misses bats.

He may never stay healthy.  He may struggle to throw strikes.  He may not have the same level of stuff when he comes back.  But he has shown a slider than could be one of the best in all of baseball.

58 minutes ago, roger said:

Can not disagree more, Cody, as to your including Prielipp and Canterino.  Both are very talented and made a ton of sense at the time.  Canterino has proven to be a top talent, when healthy.  I continue to believe that both will someday be effective pitchers for the Twins.  Whether that is as a starter or reliever remains to be seen, although both are more likely to be working out of the pen.  My hope is that we still see Canterino later this summer and Prielipp next spring.

Thought it was interesting that I made an unfavorable comment about Cavaco yesterday, then saw this morning that he had been released.  Given that he was a relatively high pick, that remains a terrible decision.  Regarding this subject, does anyone remember who was it, maybe something Lee, who worked his way into being a free agent by getting Mr. Ryan to forego sending him a contract?  Or at least something like that.

Travis Lee - first base slugger. This is from memory but I believe there was a deadline for an offer to be tendered and the Twins missed it. He became a free agent and signed elsewhere but don’t think was ever an elite player. 

56 minutes ago, Linus said:

Travis Lee - first base slugger. This is from memory but I believe there was a deadline for an offer to be tendered and the Twins missed it. He became a free agent and signed elsewhere but don’t think was ever an elite player. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leetr01.shtml

Lee had a decent career but wasn't anything special.

The Cavaco and Sabato picks were head scratchers from the first moment. Back then I figured that people in the org had great intel that the general public didnt.  I read more on the top 250 draft eligible players now than I used to,  the intel that the org had back then was horrible. Those picks should never have been made.  It doesn’t mean we would have had success with players (B) but at least it would have been something.  The past few drafts, it seems that we have been dialed in on some potential greatness.  Analytics seem to help in drafting potential but so should human drive and discipline. The kids need to have that extraordinary edge. Most dont have it at 18-21. The ones that “NEED” to find it should be high on the draft board. 
we wont always pick the right kids, but we are doing better at excluding the wrong ones. 

Using a first round pick on Cavaco was such a surprise at the time.  I think our F.O. was trying to show that they were smarter than all the experts.

5 hours ago, Linus said:

Travis Lee - first base slugger. This is from memory but I believe there was a deadline for an offer to be tendered and the Twins missed it. He became a free agent and signed elsewhere but don’t think was ever an elite player. 

He had some decent seasons, but certainly no great shakes, and definitely not all-star caliber.  It was also no secret that he really, really didn't want to come to Minny.

Travis Lee was not drafted by this front office which is the basis of the article.  I also find this piece to be clickbait.   Pretty lame.  This front office did use high picks on Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins just to name 3 easy ones. 

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Tyler Jay is another one I really disliked

Yes indeed, Tyler Jay may have been the biggest swing and miss of the bunch. And although I liked Nick Gordan, and kept hoping he would turn into a good everyday player, that pick is looking like a stinker too. I will also agree with the posters who think that including Prieilipp and Canterino was unnecessary. 

"The Minnesota Twins' draft history since 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations."   The Minnesota Twins' draft history prior to 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations.   Every team's draft history since 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations.   Every team's draft history prior to 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations.

Watching Cavaco in the minor league setting was interesting. He seemed to not have a care in the world. He had his money and he wasn't going to put in much effort after getting that big check. How young players react to getting paid is always a question mark in drafts and Cavaco clearly was just in it for the money.