Make It Official! Twins 8, Athletics 7: Your Money's Worth and More

[Matthew Trueblood]

With a bit of thunderous slugging, a bit of yeoman's work on the mound, and one dazzling defensive moment, the Twins finished off a doubleheader sweep of the hapless visitors from Oakland as the sun set over The Lake.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 2 1/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K (46 Pitches, 31 Strikes, 67.4%)
Home Runs: Royce Lewis (7), Trevor Larnach (7), José Miranda (7)
Top 3 WPA: Miranda 0.267, Josh Staumont 0.194, Griffin Jax 0.160
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

At the very bottom of it, under all the complexities and loyalties and emotional superstructures we lay on top, you go to the park to see a major-league game in the hopes of seeing a special ball player do something truly special. Through a huge number of complex interactions between on-field talent and front-office machination; through the vicious emotional wreckage of a protracted playoff losing streak and seasons ruined by injuries to talented players; and through plenty of well-earned grumbling about a family of billionaires refusing to invest the way they should have in a team with a chance to break through, the last half-decade has featured a lot of chances to step through the gates of Target Field and see something truly special. Right now, that's Royce Lewis, and what he's doing might be not only the most special thing the Twins have offered their fans this side of Joe Mauer, but one of the most remarkable things anywhere on any MLB diamond.

Lewis entered Sunday's doubleheader having played 10 games this season and clubbed five home runs. Then he homered in the first game, on the heels of Carlos Correa's first-inning two-run shot. It's not just that Lewis is doing this, but that he's doing it yet again, coming back over and over from injuries ranging from significant but moderate to career-threatening and slugging like he hadn't missed a single game. There are very few examples of this kind of relentless offensive explosiveness from a player whose career is disrupted as often and as momentously as Lewis's has been; the ones that do exist are folk heroes. Think Bo Jackson. Think Josh Hamilton. Think Mickey Mantle.

When Lewis stepped in for his turn in the first inning of Game Two, you could feel that slight gather of breath in the sparse but buzzing crowd--that unfair but happy expectation that somehow, in defiance of the law of averages and the mathematical gravity of the game, the guy in the box is going to put on his cape again and be super. It's a nearly forgotten sensation, in this day and age. Fans know better. The stats and their weight sit front and center in front of the game with us. Plus, the run environment has transformed. We're more than a quarter-century past the last expansion of the league, and almost 20 years clear of what I call the Double Expansion Era (but which others call the Steroid Era). If you didn't grow up watching Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds, you can't quite imagine how much people expected of them every day, and how (improbably) they kept meeting those insane expectations. No player since 2010 has had the same kind of anticipation attached to them, because no one has conditioned people to feel that way.

Lewis is becoming the exception. Your brain knows he can't homer in every game, let alone every time he steps to the plate, but it's increasingly difficult to banish the tickle of hope from your mind, because he keeps beating the odds and blasting the ball.

That's why fans got even more ecstatic than usual when Lewis launched a long fly ball down the left-field line, and were more than usually crestfallen when it hooked just foul. For a moment, it felt like another proof of Lewis's exceptionalism. Then, it was just a strike, and (how cruel!) fans knew they might have to wait another few innings to see their hero hit a dinger that counted.

Or, you know, he could do it on the next pitch.

Just missing once and then doing the thing immediately afterward is freakish stuff. It's the kind of showstopping moment you should only be allowed to do in the first inning or the last. Anything else would be like Skynyrd playing 'Freebird' right in the middle of the set. Lewis set a tone, as he always seems to be doing. This game, though, would be a bit less of a free-spirited frolic than the first game of the twinbill was.

This time, the A's actually showed up, and Chris Paddack continued what has been a deeply troubling trend of ineffectiveness, albeit not an uninterrupted one. This would be his third start in the last four that were somewhere between disappointing and underwhelming, and the only good one mixed in there came against the Road Rockies, perennially the worst offensive team in baseball. The A's thwacked Paddack for two homers and erased two Twins leads before Rocco Baldelli had to go get his starter, who looked rather upset to be leaving despite not having had much fun at the party. 

Things would have been worse--much worse--but for some extraordinary defense from Austin Martin in the second inning.

Some home run robberies are, secretly, pretty easy. They just require you to meander back to the wall and time up a jump, with plenty of time to do both. This was the other kind. Martin had to choose his angle wisely, feel for the wall, and get pretty high to pull the ball back. Martin looked fine in left field in his previous stint with the team, but if he can get more comfortable in center this time around, he might have more staying power with the team.

Still, Paddack's outing hangs like a bit of a dark cloud over the excitement of this stretch. He's been inconsistent not only in terms of results (that's inevitable, to some extent), but in terms of sheer movements and performance. His fastball velocity has sat 90-93 MPH in three starts this year; 92-94 in three others; 93-95 in five more; and 94-97 in the other three. That's a maddening degree of inconsistency, and it's just one illustration of a rougher-grain unreliability that has plagued the righty this year.

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Twins Daily's winning "Make It Official!" game recaps are sponsored by Official Fried Chicken, which you can find in center field of Target Field. With a name like "Official," we know we have to be the best in the game every day, and from your first bite, you'll know that's a promise we make good on.

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Fortunately, Louie Varland restored order. Taking over for Paddack, he pitched out of a third-inning jam, then gave the team four scoreless innings before cracking a bit in the seventh. It was an impressive showing from Varland in his second outing of the week, helping patch and fill some innings for the busy staff, although he still hasn't faced a truly MLB-caliber lineup since he was demoted to St. Paul in the first place.

Lewis wasn't alone in slugging in the nightcap for the Twins. Trevor Larnach launched a huge three-run homer in the bottom of the second, and the team pushed across single runs in the third and sixth that looked like they might stand up. Instead, after Varland wobbled badly in the seventh, the game came down to the final two frames. José Miranda had pinch-hit for Larnach in the sixth, and he came up again in the eighth. He put the right finishing touch on the masterpiece of a game Lewis started painting in the first.

That just left a relatively easy clean-up for Griffin Jax, and he finished the sweep ably. The Twins are winners of five games in a row, and the vibes are very, very good.

What’s Next: After an off day Monday, the Twins will welcome the Rays to town for a three-game set, with Pablo López starting the series opener. Longtime AL Central nemesis Aaron Civale will start for Tampa.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Sands	0	0	25	0	27	52
Jax	0	19	23	0	12	42
Thielbar	22	0	0	0	0	22
Durán	16	0	20	0	9	45
Staumont	0	0	15	0	15	15
Alcalá	10	13	0	0	22	45
Jackson	22	0	0	0	0	22
Okert	18	0	0	0	0	18

 

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[Peter]

Austin Martin home run robbing catch was 🔥🔥🔥💪💪💪huge play!!! Corria and Royce are 🔥🔥🔥💪💪💪4 game sweeps are so difficult and hard to come by no matter who the opponent-huge huge huge 4 game sweep!!! Go Twins!!!

[Jocko87]

Varland huge this week.  Not just that he looked pretty decent again but that he ate 9 1/3 innings in a stretch where extra pitching was needed.  Sure, it wasn't the best lineups but taking that stress off the rest of the staff is huge.  Bullpen stays on schedule on a day it could have gotten hammered.  Well done sir.

[bean5302]

Martin's home run robbing catch would have been a lot more impressive if he didn't also bounce a ball off his glove costing the team a run and allowing the Athletics to tie it up in the 2nd.

Exciting to have Royce Lewis out there playing like an MVP.

[ashbury]

Martin: one of the boxes Austin had yet to check for me was the ability to play the outfield wall. The time or two I'd watched him try, it hadn't been impressive (or successful). As of today, that box is unchecked no longer.  He may still fail to close the deal on a long, difficult fly ball from time to time, but it's not as though he simply can't.

[Danchat]

Gotta give credit to the Twins, for as much as some of us rag on them, they are taking care of the bad teams and that's not a guarantee in the game of baseball. The hitters are raking and they are fun to watch when they are hot. Great to see Correa earning every penny of his contract, and Lewis' ability to punish pitches is a joy to watch.

[SwainZag]

I know we all know, but How. Good. Is. Royce. Lewis!?  I don't care if it was the A's, 4 game sweep in 3 days is nothing to sneeze at.  This offense might just be legit.  

[blindeke]

Great write-up. Great game. Too bad it stayed so close!

[darwin22]

Not to damper the mood tonight, but are the recent inconsistent results from Paddack (4+ ER allowed in 3 of last 4 starts) a serious enough concern that may warrant keeping Varland around?

May be a moot point as I haven't seen if Varland was optioned back to AAA tonight.  

If not the case, I will make the argument to keep Varland around as a spot starter/long relief out of the pen.  The corresponding move would be the DFA of Jay Jackson.  Albeit against  weaker lineups, Varland, imo, deserves the opportunity to stay after delivering two quality outings (2 ER in 9.33 IP this week).

For those who disagree---that's fine, but I'd welcome the argument/discussion of how Jackson is more beneficial than Varland?

 

[Schmoeman5]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Martin: one of the boxes Austin had yet to check for me was the ability to play the outfield wall. The time or two I'd watched him try, it hadn't been impressive (or successful). As of today, that box is unchecked no longer.  He may still fail to close the deal on a long, difficult fly ball from time to time, but it's not as though he simply can't.

He has made several really good/great catches. He's also bungled several more. It's consistency. Can he do it for the long haul? He saved a run and gave it right back. I'm not sold. Personally I think he should have been swapped with Castro defensively. He can improve. It's his arm. Well below average. 

[Jocko87]

7 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

For those who disagree---that's fine, but I'd welcome the argument/discussion of how Jackson is more beneficial than Varland?

Varland gets to keep starting for a couple more months. Jackson will eat innings in the meantime.  It's a regular season vs post season discussion in my mind.

[Schmoeman5]

I remember in the late 60s early 70s there was a photo that read Clapton is God. I expect at some point this week a Twins fan will have one that reads Lewis is. 

[SwainZag]

10 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Not to damper the mood tonight, but are the recent inconsistent results from Paddack (4+ ER allowed in 3 of last 4 starts) a serious enough concern that may warrant keeping Varland around?

May be a moot point as I haven't seen if Varland was optioned back to AAA tonight.  

If not the case, I will make the argument to keep Varland around as a spot starter/long relief out of the pen.  The corresponding move would be the DFA of Jay Jackson.  Albeit against  weaker lineups, Varland, imo, deserves the opportunity to stay after delivering two quality outings (2 ER in 9.33 IP this week).

For those who disagree---that's fine, but I'd welcome the argument/discussion of how Jackson is more beneficial than Varland?

 

Gotta remember Paddack is still working back from TJ surgery.  I think it would be very beneficial if the Twins could get to a place with roster spots to skip him in the rotation once or twice and let him get some extra rest.  

[Matthew Trueblood]

20 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Not to damper the mood tonight, but are the recent inconsistent results from Paddack (4+ ER allowed in 3 of last 4 starts) a serious enough concern that may warrant keeping Varland around?

May be a moot point as I haven't seen if Varland was optioned back to AAA tonight.  

If not the case, I will make the argument to keep Varland around as a spot starter/long relief out of the pen.  The corresponding move would be the DFA of Jay Jackson.  Albeit against  weaker lineups, Varland, imo, deserves the opportunity to stay after delivering two quality outings (2 ER in 9.33 IP this week).

For those who disagree---that's fine, but I'd welcome the argument/discussion of how Jackson is more beneficial than Varland?

 

The 27th man for any doubleheader is required to go back down thereafter, by rule. Now, could they still get Varland back up here in a week or so? Yeah, I think so. But he can't stick around in the immediate term, and I would guess Paddack gets at least one more start before they consider a "maintenance stint" on the IL.

[stringer bell]

If someone goes on IL, they can keep the 27th guy on the active roster, Al thought the 13 pitcher limit has to be observed.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

If someone goes on IL, they can keep the 27th guy on the active roster, Al thought the 13 pitcher limit has to be observed.

There was a discussion on this earlier in the season. Semantically, it has to be two different transactions. Varland has to go down, but could immediately be recalled to take the place of a pitcher going on the IL. They would be separate transactions. 

However, if that’s the plan, there’s a good chance it doesn’t make sense. If they were going to keep him up in exchange for an IL stint for Paddack, for example, it would make more sense for them to bring up a reliever in an immediate move for Paddack and have the extra reliever for a few days until Varland is needed in the rotation on Saturday (assuming Ober gets Friday). 

EXCEPT that in this case it’s complicated by Varland having pitched on Tuesday and then optioned, so he can’t come up for Saturday, unless it’s indeed for an IL stint.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Varland huge this week.  Not just that he looked pretty decent again but that he ate 9 1/3 innings in a stretch where extra pitching was needed.  Sure, it wasn't the best lineups but taking that stress off the rest of the staff is huge.  Bullpen stays on schedule on a day it could have gotten hammered.  Well done sir.

Glad he got the results, but they came with lots of high mph exit velocities again. He pitched better today than his actual start last Tuesday despite the ERA not showing it. Varland did avoid the walks he'd been struggling with. 
 

[bean5302]

 

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

If someone goes on IL, they can keep the 27th guy on the active roster, Al thought the 13 pitcher limit has to be observed.

Varland cannot stay up. He was optioned less than 10 days ago. The double header is the only reason he was allowed to be a temporary fill in.

[IndianaTwin]

I’m among those who thinks it would be worth considering an IL stint for Paddack, which isn’t uncommon for guys coming back from Tommy John.

Just for kicks, let’s see what that TJS reset could look like for Paddack. Assuming Ober gets Friday, Paddack is on for the 22nd, 28th, 4th and 9th. So…

• On July 5, IL Paddack for an optionable reliever. 
• On July 9, option that reliever and bring up Varland for the start. 
• On July 10, option Varland for another optionable reliever.
• Use the remaining four starters for the 10th, 12th, 13th and 14th, leading into the break. 
• Start those four on the 20th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd coming out of the break. 
• On July 24, activate Paddack in his return to the rotation, sending down the optionable reliever.  

That would result in Paddack getting a 19-day break that only costs one start, allowing the Twins to play 12 of the 13 games in that stretch with a nine-man bullpen.

It seems they did some variation with this theme a couple years ago, but I don’t remember the specifics.  

[UK Twin]

That catch from Martin was extraordinary. Royce Lewis IS extraordinary. It defies all logic that he spends 2 months on the IL, struggles for hits in his rehab assignment, then as soon as he's reinstated just continues to crush HR's at a staggering rate. 

I know he's still a long way from FA and he's a Boras client, but the FO need to seriously consider locking him up with a monster extension now. It would be a bit of a risk with his injury record, but that's precisely why it would be achievable to do it now. It would be very hard for Lewis to turn down 8+ years, $250mill+. 

The current issue is obviously the TV revenue situation. But the Twins could backload some of the pay for the next season or two while the situation gets resolved. But the longer Lewis continues to hit like this, the harder it will get to extend him. He's a superstar who is not fazed by the big moments (look what he did in the play offs back last season).

 

[Whitey333]

Lewis is so fun to watch.  He just needs to stay healthy.  I am much higher on him than I ever was on Buxton.  Let's remember we are beating very poor bottom feeding teams.  We have a terrible record against winning teams.  Im glad they beat these cellar dwellars and beef up individual stats.  But they are not good teams at all.

[Matthew Trueblood]

59 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Let's remember we are beating very poor bottom feeding teams.  We have a terrible record against winning teams.  Im glad they beat these cellar dwellars and beef up individual stats.  But they are not good teams at all.

I'll grant that, but let's also remember that not ALL the damage Lewis has done has been against those two teams. He came back against the Yankees, who can pitch a little bit, and he still worked his magic.

[stringer bell]

Fun game to watch last night and I thought the crowd was really into it, considering there weren't that many in the park. Martin provided a great defensive play as well as two hits (and an error) in an eventful day in center field. 

Varland was available for long relief and calmed the storm, but weakened in his fifth inning. Josh Staumont was outstanding, coming in with runners on base and cleaning up Varland's mess and then fanning the side in the eighth inning. Miranda absolutely crushed his game-winning homer, his first off a pitch other than a fastball.

There are concerns with this team, but there's a lot to be optimistic about. Paddack seems to be like a box of chocolates--"you never know what you're gonna get". After a good performance against the Rockies, he threw batting practice against the A's. The Twins haven't gotten the consistently good starts from their rotation that they did for much of last season. Lastly, the left handed bullpen options aren't optimal, with Caleb Thielbar struggling mightily. 

[LambchoP]

The fact that Paddack is coming back from tommy John and has been struggling badly lately, I think now would be a good time for a 10 or 15 day IL stint. Have him skip a few starts to keep him fresh and limit his innings. Give Festa a few spot starts, although I think Varland would be more likely.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’m among those who thinks it would be worth considering an IL stint for Paddack, which isn’t uncommon for guys coming back from Tommy John.

Just for kicks, let’s see what that TJS reset could look like for Paddack. Assuming Ober gets Friday, Paddack is on for the 22nd, 28th, 4th and 9th. So…

I'll continue to note this every time I see it because people seem to forget or ignore the Mets GM was just suspended for a year for using the Phantom IL. MLB put front offices on notice about the Phantom IL earlier this year with that suspension, and Falvey is running a lame duck front office right now (contracts end this year, and they haven't been renewed).

Now if Paddack really is suffering from shoulder fatigue or dead arm, the IL trip is warranted.
In Maeda's case last year, his velo looked like this 91.0 -> 89.3 -> 89.0 -> 88.5.
Paddack's case over his last few starts: 91.5 -> 95.0 -> 95.2 -> 93.7

When I looked at Paddack's results and charted them for the season, he started off with higher velocity, which gradually trended down, but was up and down from start to start, with his control trending gradually up in a similar way. Basically, Paddack was trying to find more control, which is usually the last thing to return for pitchers coming back from TJ. The recent starts are not indicative of dead arm, they're more indicative of a starter who isn't very good right now. 

[Doctor Gast]

The offense showed up. Varland not knowing how long he was going to pitch, pitched his heart out until the 7th. Martin progresses in the CF & at the plate, once he really settles in, especially on the basepaths, he'll become an all-round impact lead-off hitter. These guys are life-savers & need to stay up. Even when Wallner, Julien, and Kiriloff are ready to come up. The rotation, Thielbar & Duran are sometimes wavering. Varland is much needed in long relief on a long-term basis. Fortunately, we had him up last night. 

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

He has made several really good/great catches. He's also bungled several more. It's consistency. Can he do it for the long haul? He saved a run and gave it right back. I'm not sold. Personally I think he should have been swapped with Castro defensively. He can improve. It's his arm. Well below average. 

To go back to the metaphor I used in the post you replied to, I didn't say he'd checked every box on the list yet.  😀

Consistency is something that can probably be acquired; I also haven't formed an opinion on the related matter of his game intelligence, such as coming in and deciding to be a Hero on sinking line drives, AKA Jake Cave Disease. 

The arm probably is not something that can be corrected if it hasn't been corrected by now. But not absolutely every box needs to be checked, in order to be a productive major leaguer. He profiles better in LF due to that arm.  But we lived through a season of Ben Revere in RF, so nothing is impossible.

Another unchecked box for him is power at the plate. That's another one that is looking unlikely.

A three-tool player if he turns out to be that... there are uses for those.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'll continue to note this every time I see it because people seem to forget or ignore the Mets GM was just suspended for a year for using the Phantom IL. MLB put front offices on notice about the Phantom IL earlier this year with that suspension, and Falvey is running a lame duck front office right now (contracts end this year, and they haven't been renewed).

Now if Paddack really is suffering from shoulder fatigue or dead arm, the IL trip is warranted.
In Maeda's case last year, his velo looked like this 91.0 -> 89.3 -> 89.0 -> 88.5.
Paddack's case over his last few starts: 91.5 -> 95.0 -> 95.2 -> 93.7

When I looked at Paddack's results and charted them for the season, he started off with higher velocity, which gradually trended down, but was up and down from start to start, with his control trending gradually up in a similar way. Basically, Paddack was trying to find more control, which is usually the last thing to return for pitchers coming back from TJ. The recent starts are not indicative of dead arm, they're more indicative of a starter who isn't very good right now. 

This is an important point.

You can't IL someone just because you feel like it. 

It's called the "injured list" for a reason.  

 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Not to damper the mood tonight, but are the recent inconsistent results from Paddack (4+ ER allowed in 3 of last 4 starts) a serious enough concern that may warrant keeping Varland around?

May be a moot point as I haven't seen if Varland was optioned back to AAA tonight.  

If not the case, I will make the argument to keep Varland around as a spot starter/long relief out of the pen.  The corresponding move would be the DFA of Jay Jackson.  Albeit against  weaker lineups, Varland, imo, deserves the opportunity to stay after delivering two quality outings (2 ER in 9.33 IP this week).

For those who disagree---that's fine, but I'd welcome the argument/discussion of how Jackson is more beneficial than Varland?

 

I think it’s “no”, due to a low % of needing him on the regular. Long relief can be needed 2 days in a row and then not for 12 days. I like having him around and he seems to be deserving but that isn’t what drives things.

The “competition” or discussion isn’t really between Varland and anybody, it’s between Jackson & Thielbar IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'll continue to note this every time I see it because people seem to forget or ignore the Mets GM was just suspended for a year for using the Phantom IL. MLB put front offices on notice about the Phantom IL earlier this year with that suspension, and Falvey is running a lame duck front office right now (contracts end this year, and they haven't been renewed).

Now if Paddack really is suffering from shoulder fatigue or dead arm, the IL trip is warranted.
In Maeda's case last year, his velo looked like this 91.0 -> 89.3 -> 89.0 -> 88.5.
Paddack's case over his last few starts: 91.5 -> 95.0 -> 95.2 -> 93.7

When I looked at Paddack's results and charted them for the season, he started off with higher velocity, which gradually trended down, but was up and down from start to start, with his control trending gradually up in a similar way. Basically, Paddack was trying to find more control, which is usually the last thing to return for pitchers coming back from TJ. The recent starts are not indicative of dead arm, they're more indicative of a starter who isn't very good right now. 

AGREED. It’s tough to give up a bunch of runs (4?) previous time out and then shutdown the opposition for 3-4 innings…..with a tired arm. But, if one isn’t commanding pitches it can happen every outing.