Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A

[Nick Nelson]

The homegrown slugger endured a tumultuous start to this season at the major-league level, and didn't initially look a whole lot better after being demoted to the minors in April.

The past few weeks, however, have brought a lot of positive signs, suggesting that Matt Wallner may be ready to return and make an impact in the near future.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off a breakthrough rookie season, Matt Wallner struggled mightily throughout spring training, but it was mostly shrugged off by him and his coaches. The sample is small and the games don't matter, was the refrain more or less. Once the games did start mattering and Wallner's bat failed to start battering, the vibe quickly changed. Just 13 games into his season, with a .080/.273/.240 slash line and 17-to-3 K/BB ratio in 33 plate appearances, the Twins decided to send Wallner down. 

The hope was that a trip to St. Paul would help Wallner get right in a hurry. Instead, it merely verified that his plate approach was truly broken. Playing at a level where he crushed in both 2022 and 2023, Wallner looked totally lost in his first couple weeks with the Saints, slashing .152/.204/.261 with 21 strikeouts in three walks through his first 11 games and 49 plate appearances. Almost identical to his numbers in the majors. In early May he went through a bit of a power streak, but the indicators of plate discipline were still pretty alarming: 33 strikeouts and four walks through 20 games at Triple-A; a 37% K-rate and 4% BB rate. He just wasn't going to sustainably succeed the way. No one can.

On May 12th, Wallner did something he hadn't all year: he drew two walks in a game. It was a notable development from a player who had drawn seven total free passes through 33 games. Then he drew two walks again three games later. And again two games after that. Since that date, May 12th, Wallner has a 36-to-20 K/BB ratio that looks radically different from what we saw in the first seven weeks of the season. 

In 19 games during that span (entering play Friday) Wallner has a palatable 29% K-rate and an excellent 16% BB-rate. He's slashing .214/.341/.505 for an .846 OPS that is very strong despite being suppressed by a .230 BABIP. If we zoom into a more recent sample, the numbers are even more impressive: in his past 15 games, Wallner is batting .316 with a 1.126 OPS, eight homers and 17 RBIs. In 66 plate appearances: 15 strikeouts (23%) and eight walks (12%). 

Seeing Wallner launching home runs all over the place -- most recently he crushed two as part of a four-hit night in St. Paul's 18-run barrage against Louisville on Thursday -- is obviously great. But it's not necessarily all that telling. He's always going to be able to obliterate the baseball when he gets a hold of it. Putting forth better plate appearances and getting himself in position to get pitches he can wallop (or spitting on those he can't) is the key for Wallner. Now he's finally doing those things, in convincing fashion.

 

Wallner's eventual turnaround in Triple-A offers hope for Edouard Julien, who is going through a similar spell of initial struggles following his demotion, as well as Alex Kirilloff, who's now joined the two in the minors. Of course, it won't matter unless Wallner can channel the newfound confidence back into major-league success, and you wonder how long it will take for him to get that chance.

The front office chose Austin Martin as the call-up instead of Wallner when they sent down Kirilloff earlier this week, which surprised me somewhat given the need for another quality left-handed bat. But with that need in mind, Wallner's return can't be too far off. We can officially and unequivocally say at this point he's earned it.

What are your thoughts? Would you be looking for a way to get Wallner back up into the Twins lineup quickly, or would you keep him in the minors until an opportunity naturally arises?

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[Karbo]

I would go another couple weeks and see where he is with his hitting. If he can have a month hitting around ,250 with an OBP over .700, then I would give him another chance. Of course, any OF injury changes that.

[jorgenswest]

Change is hard. If true changes were necessary it was irrational hope that it would take place quickly. Sometimes steps backward happens before being able to move forward.

They really need Wallner’s bat against right handed pitching. It is encouraging that a return looks feasible now.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I would go another couple weeks and see where he is with his hitting. If he can have a month hitting around ,250 with an OBP over .700, then I would give him another chance. Of course, any OF injury changes that.

Assuming you mean OPS over .700 rather than OBP? Haha. Wallner is OPS'ing about .860 for the past 40 games. Over 1.000 for his past 20 games. That said, I think the Twins will wait to recall him until Margot slumps again. To me, it seems like Wallner's struggles were probably mental.

[ashbury]

Finding himself?  He's already been at AAA two previous seasons, and did better.

Recent trends may be good, but short stretches of 100 PA here and there can be misleading.  Best to count all the stats.

As I just got done saying in another thread, a similar "past few weeks" analysis would have us installing Manny Margot as our everyday left fielder.

I'm a long time believer in Wallner, but even so I want to tap the brakes a bit here.

[roger]

Add me to those who would like to see at least another month of this type of production.  Very likely when he does come back it could be his last chance.  Lets give him some time.

[Road trip]

He needs another chance at MLB at some point this year.  Might be June-July, or it may not happen till later.  The timing will likely be determined by the play and health of other outfielders on the current MLB roster.  The important thing is that it happens at some point.  He showed too much potential last year not to give him another chance this year.

[Doctor Gast]

I felt that Wallner's AAA stint would be long. It's not easy to unlearn what you've been programmed your whole pro career. I'm happy that he's close because we need him. We need Martin, Wallner, Julien, Lee & Kiriloff all up, plus Keirsey deserving a MLB call up. Which demands tough decisions on Farmer, Margot, and Santana even if they aren't as bad as they were. What good is DeSclavani on the 40-man? If any trades involving any of these players or others on the 40-man they should be made.

[bean5302]

13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Finding himself?  He's already been at AAA two previous seasons, and did better.

Recent trends may be good, but short stretches of 100 PA here and there can be misleading.  Best to count all the stats.

As I just got done saying in another thread, a similar "past few weeks" analysis would have us installing Manny Margot as our everyday left fielder.

I'm a long time believer in Wallner, but even so I want to tap the brakes a bit here.

He did not do better than 1.084 OPS, and 100 PA isn't that small of a sample size in AAA for a guy who proved himself in MLB already. The Twins should have just been waiting for things to click. 

Looking at the numbers behind the scenes to find red flags like a couple huge games and a bunch of cold ones or BABIP issues or lack of production from a significant area of a player's game:
Doing it day in, day out? Yes 18/20 games reached base, hits in 16/20 games, 4 multi-hit games.
Unsustainable BABIP? No. BABIP .292 over the past 20 games.
Plate Discipline? Yes. He's taking walks and not striking out.
Hitting for power? Yes. .400 ISO over the past 20 games, 8 HRs, only 1 game with multiple HRs

Questions about Wallner's plate approach and being an MLB caliber player can only really be answered at the MLB level. 

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, roger said:

Add me to those who would like to see at least another month of this type of production.  Very likely when he does come back it could be his last chance.  Lets give him some time.

For a guy who raked the way he did in MLB last year, who still has another option after this year and isn't close to arb eligible, he's going to get some chances.

[LambchoP]

I think the Twins need to decide who is going to be our long term left fielder between Wallner, Larnach and AK. Kepler leaving after this year opens another spot, but with Martin, Keirsey and ERod pushing for playing time I think a trade could be coming. I'd say if we could package Kiriloff with one of our blocked infielders like Severino or Helman to get some impact pitching then I say go for it.

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

He did not do better than 1.084 OPS, and 100 PA isn't that small of a sample size in AAA

He OPSed 1.104 in 133 PA, May 30 to July 1, 2023 at St Paul.  Probably interesting stats could be found by compiling his career minor league stats on alternate Saturdays, too.  You can find all kinds of interesting **** in small samples.  😀

[DocBauer]

I'm a fan and believer in Wallner. He's produced at every level, and made adjustments at every level. He's got the ability to be a dangerous, productive hitter at the ML level. He's the type of hitter that's always going to have a 30% K rate. Not because he swings and misses at everything, but because he's the kind of hitter who works the pitcher/count to find something to hit, and is willing to take a BB. And he is that 3 outcome kind of hitter who's always walked quite a bit. Honestly, he and Julien are very much the same type of hitter, generally speaking, but that's a different subject and not relevant to this OP.

Wallner, IMO, can hit anywhere from .235-.260 at the ML level with an OB% of about .320-.340. And he's got legitimate 30 Dbls and 30HR power. He actually runs pretty well for a large man, has improved his reads and route running in the OF, and of course, has that cannon for an arm.

He can be a difference maker for the Twins this season, and future seasons, even if he's never a true STAR player. But just because he CAN be that player doesn't mean he's going to be. Somewhere along the line...again, similar to Julien...pitchers have made an adjustment and Wallner has lost a balance of when to be patient and when to be aggressive. (This is also very similar to what Larnach has had to adjust to). If you're going to get fewer and fewer fastballs, looking for a pitch is still the way to go. But that might mean a pitch you aren't in love with, but it's the best offering, and it's up to you to get the bat on the ball. It's not that easy, but it's not so much the wrong approach, as having to change the parameters of the approach in place due to different offerings from the pitcher. I hope that make sense.

Wallner finds a better balance in regard to his patience, and when and what to swing at with fewer fastballs, he should be up. He's trending that way now. But it wouldn't hurt to see him do it for a few more weeks. Honestly, right now, 2b is a bigger hole, but again, different discussion.

[Nick Nelson]

Good points all around in these comments. I guess the big (happy) takeaway is that we're having these discussions because the Twins are so remarkably healthy right now. Knock on wood and all that.

There's been many a year where attrition at the MLB level would be rendering the debate around Wallner's handling moot.

[Guest]

I've been a Wallner fan from the jump.  But there's nothing here that describes the adjustments Wallner made, if any, from early in the season.  Did Schlechter change anything?  If Wallner changed his swing or mechanics in any way it's not visible in video clips the past month.  Ok, so Wallner's more patient.  That's fine until he returns to the bigs and pitchers start roasting him again with 92mph sliders down and in.  I'd say the jury remains out until it's clear this is more than just a little mean reversion.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Add me to those who would like to see at least another month of this type of production.  Very likely when he does come back it could be his last chance.  Lets give him some time.

Agreed. Absent injury I wouldn’t promote him before the All Star break. He’s coming out of a very big hole so we need to see consistency.

Let’s not forget, it’s not like Wallner was a consistently good major-league bat last year. He was very good in May, hit below .210 in June, July and August, albeit with real power, and then had a big rise and September when other teams are throwing their AAA pitchers. He was overmatched in the playoffs, horrendous in spring training, and completely unplayable in April. He has yet to show he could be a successful, consistent major-league hitter. Let’s first make him show. He can be a successful, consistent, AAA hitter over a six weeks span before we think about bringing him up.

[USAFChief]

Bring him up yesterday. He only has to outproduce Margot vs RH pitching. Easy call.

[Patzky]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I felt that Wallner's AAA stint would be long. It's not easy to unlearn what you've been programmed your whole pro career. I'm happy that he's close because we need him. We need Martin, Wallner, Julien, Lee & Kiriloff all up, plus Keirsey deserving a MLB call up. Which demands tough decisions on Farmer, Margot, and Santana even if they aren't as bad as they were. What good is DeSclavani on the 40-man? If any trades involving any of these players or others on the 40-man they should be made.

It's all true but perhaps he's be welcome for the double header tomorrow.. unless they have other plans.

[Mai.K]

Farmer DFA
Wallner Call up

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Mai.K said:

Farmer DFA
Wallner Call up

Wallner is playing tonight in Louisville so not likely..

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Mai.K said:

Farmer DFA
Wallner Call up

Not going to happen. And not because Farmer has suddenly hit a little bit better. It's about roster construction as well as performance or need. No Farmer means Castro is "stuck" at 2B with only Martin as another option. If and when Farmer might be gone, it will be due to Julien, or Lee, brought up, or BOTH in certain scenarios. But Wallner won't replace Farmer.

[Mai.K]

10 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Not going to happen. And not because Farmer has suddenly hit a little bit better. It's about roster construction as well as performance or need. No Farmer means Castro is "stuck" at 2B with only Martin as another option. If and when Farmer might be gone, it will be due to Julien, or Lee, brought up, or BOTH in certain scenarios. But Wallner won't replace Farmer.

OK
Austin Martin Option 
Wallner Call up

[DocBauer]

8 minutes ago, Mai.K said:

OK
Austin Martin Option 
Wallner Call up

I don't think you're wrong. 

I still have questions about Martin as a ML HITTER, as I'm worried there's just not enough POP in the bat for sustainability despite contact and a good eye. I love Wallner, but I think Martin gets at least a couple weeks run to see how ready he is. He was doing great at St Paul. I'm just hoping he gets to PLAY instead of being a PR. Wallner could be a key for the 2nd half, and the future. But I'm just guessing the Twins will stick with Martin through June and then re-examine Wallner and the roster.

[Fat Calvin]

Today the Saints had six hits in total. Wallner had four of them, including a home run.  Ah, it looks like he doesn't want to wait the couple-of-weeks group consensus. 

[old nurse]

Nowhere has anyone pointed out that he fixed the hole in his swing. 

[Patzky]

Just now, old nurse said:

Nowhere has anyone pointed out that he fixed the hole in his swing. 

He has fixed the Saint sized hole. Last year that was good enough to fill the Twin sized hole.

 

So he's on to something..

[Doc Munson]

Wallner has ALWAYS been a notoriously horrible first half hitter, this is nothing new.  The only question is if this trend continues (as it historically has) then who does he replace? Barring injury of course. Larnach is not a world beater but he has been solid.  The Twins are not moving Kepler,  Even if Buxton gets re-injured Wallner is not a CF.   HE wont take any DH AB's from any RH hitters like Miranda.  I dont want to trade him, but even if tis does prove to have staying power, what do you do with him?

 

[h2oface]

Said it in ST when almost all he was doing was striking out. when most were talking about and defending him being a lock and ST doesn't matter, anyway. Send Wallner down to start the season, I promoted. Let him strikeout for a month in AAA until he gets hot later like last year. Slow starter. He just should play year round somewhere so he stays at a keen level. Sure enough............ waste of time to have had him up until about now. Banking on a half year rookie to be there the next year is folly. They have to earn it. Over and over it happens. In the past and in the present. Valencia, Diamond, Miranda, Julian etc etc....

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think the Twins need to decide who is going to be our long term left fielder between Wallner, Larnach and AK. Kepler leaving after this year opens another spot, but with Martin, Keirsey and ERod pushing for playing time I think a trade could be coming. I'd say if we could package Kiriloff with one of our blocked infielders like Severino or Helman to get some impact pitching then I say go for it.

I would agree that we have --- or will have in the next year or so --- a lot of blocked players, both infielders and outfielders, but I don't think that trading any of those guys (and someone like Jenkins is totally untouchable) would really get us anything close to an impact pitcher. Brooks Lee, maybe, but I don't see the Twins putting him on the market either. As things stand this year, there are too many question marks about guys like Kiriloff, and even Martin and Wallner. Other teams might certainly want to take a chance on some our surplus players, but I can't see the Twins getting an overwhelming return in a trade. 

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, Patzky said:

He has fixed the Saint sized hole. Last year that was good enough to fill the Twin sized hole.

 

So he's on to something..

There were articles on how he could not hit the high inside pitches. There were articles on how he fixed his swing over the winter and the spring training results were proof of that. Needful to say that the early season performance of Wallner indicated there was still a problem. Being successful in the minor leagues is not indicative of the fixed the problem. It could just as likely mean the less than stellar pitching at AAA can’t hit the spots as well and Wallner will be good enough to hit mistakes and average to mediocre pitching