Why the Twins Were Right to Demote Alex Kirilloff to Minors

[LambchoP]

I've got to believe that this "part time,platoon heavy" playing time has got to be tough on these young guys development. When your not playing everyday, hitting somewhere different in the lineup every day it's got to throw them off. Hopefully he can figure something out in AAA but it sure hasn't worked yet for Wallner or Julien. Might be time to build a package around some of these guys to clear out some log jams and get some much needed starting pitching.

[saviking]

I agree with the move, but I'm more puzzled about what happened to Julien. He hit every step of the way and at the bigs last year. How can you just fall off the cliff like that. I'm beginning to think the mental part of the game when you are in a slump really has a lot to do with not being able to come out of the slump. Meaning the pressure you put on yourself

[Five minute major]

Agree with all of the posters above pointing to two main issues impacting many of these younger (and older) players.

1.  Hitting coach.   Simply too much proven talent that is underperforming at a dramatic rate.   This is glaring actually.

2.  Analytics/platooning.   This team's absolute reliance on analytics over any sense of "gut feeling" inherant to baseball not only seems to be impacting performance but makes for a very boring product to watch.    No way under this philosophy do you see Rocco leaving in Morris for the 10th.   Or Kirby facing lefties and righties everyday.    The platooning is maddening to watch, particularly when there is a hot hitter sitting.   I don't know how they justify this when after 70 games, the offense is still below average.  I have been saying this for the past few years.  Rocco is still riding the huge coattails of Nelson Cruz.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

This isn't just an issue for the Twins - young players often take time to figure things out. The most hyped rookie in all of MLB this year was Jackson Holiday - can't miss, number 1 prospect. Started the year with the Orioles and put up a -0.5 WAR and was sent to AAA. I think we as Twins fans sometimes get tunnel vision related to the team.

Meanwhile, we often complain about veterans with slow starts - did it last year with Kepler, this year with Santana - yet they figured it out and both are solid contributors. They're veterans.

I agree it can take some time for young players to figure it out but disagree with the implication that vets figure it out.

I realize or at least assume that you are not making a black or white statement claiming that all young players or all vets because you are a solid poster who wouldn't do that. 

I'm just not so sure that any of us should be tagging this type of thing on the young player. What is typical across the league is that vets are allowed more time to figure it out and some do... while some don't. Options are a powerful thing in roster management. That vet who can't be sent down have to figure it out at the major league level. The youngster with options doesn't have to because they can be sent down.   

Have Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff struggled? Yes they have. They are not the first youngsters who struggle in year two and they won't be the last... However... So has Margot and Farmer and they are not the first nor will they be the last.  

Did Holiday struggle?... He sure did... Really bad over 34 AB's. Cedric Mullins has struggled real bad over 187 AB's and is still given daily opportunity to cure whatever is ailing him.  

Abreu and Hamilton are playing decently for the Red Sox. What will they be next year? Next Month? Who knows but those are a couple of young players who are helping Boston win some games. 

Cleveland has that David Fry guy and a lot of youngish players. I still don't know who David Fry is? But... He's a 28 year old rookie with an OPS over 1,000 - 131 AB's into the season. 

Kerry Carpenter figured it out right away in Detroit and still has it figured why Javier Baez took the big contract and continues to do nothing big at all. 

Bregman is starting to figure it out in Houston this year but statistically... he currently isn't much better than Julien,,, other than the strikeouts. Julien has spent too much time walking back to the dugout.

The Royals have young players all over the place... they also have a couple of vets in Renfroe and Frazier who still need to figure something out.

The Angels... they are a collection of vets who struggle... they got a couple of youngsters in O'Hoppe and Neto who have done decently.

The Yanks are happy with Volpe and not so happy with Rizzo.

Garver, Haniger and Polanco have not been good this year for the Mariners. They will continue to get chances to repair themselves.

The Rays are pretty much a veteran team now... Vets who are not performing very well this year but the same players who performed pretty darn well when they were classified as youngsters.

Carter has certainly taken a step back from his incredible World Series performance with the Rangers. Langford certainly hasn't exploded out of the box. Adolis Garcia has some turning around to do and will keep getting AB's for turning opportunity. 

I'm not sure if Vlad Jr and Bichette should be classified as Youngsters but they have certainly been in the league long enough to be Vets. Bichette was very important and not playing important. Springer is a very well paid vet and I just picked him up off the waiver wire in my fantasy baseball league. Davis Schneider on the other hand has been perhaps their 2nd best hitter so far.

I could keep going into the National League but this post is already long enough. 

I just wanted to point out that opportunity has always been advantage Vet and remains so... although statistically... I'm not so sure that the Vets are better. Young players these days make some decent debuts at a much lower price. 

The Twins need to find more because we can't afford vets who struggle. If we continue spending 18 million dollars every year to round out the roster... that bill will eventually get paid by a minor league system that didn't produce cheaper talent.  

 

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Players seem to do good in AAA and come up and fizzle. 

That's inevitable. AAA is a LOT easier than the big leagues. You should expect a 200 point drop in OPS or a full run added to ERA for any player promoted from AAA to MLB.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

I think it is confidence.  They need to know they have a long term or at least 30 days to prove themselves instead of living with the fear of being sent down.

If they're constantly in fear of being demoted then they probably don't have the makeup to succeed.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I've got to believe that this "part time,platoon heavy" playing time has got to be tough on these young guys development. When your not playing everyday, hitting somewhere different in the lineup every day it's got to throw them off. Hopefully he can figure something out in AAA but it sure hasn't worked yet for Wallner or Julien. Might be time to build a package around some of these guys to clear out some log jams and get some much needed starting pitching.

I've frequently complained about the potential development issues in regards to young players. 

I'm not so sure that not playing everyday is the reason though. 

If not playing every day is hard on Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner and Larnach. It has to be doubly or triply hard on Farmer or Margot who are playing even less. 

However, we get there... we agree that we are both not fans of the heavy platooning taking place. 

[strumdatjag]

Hopefully, they bring back Wallner.  He has performed well in St Paul and has earned the call-up.  

[SD happy]

I’m kinda bummed. With his hitting tools coming up, I thought he had the potential of being a consistent 300 hitter. I was really hoping he and Royce were going to be a dynamic 1-2 punch. Best wishes, I hope he figures it out.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 minutes ago, Five minute major said:

 2.  Analytics/platooning.   This team's absolute reliance on analytics over any sense of "gut feeling" inherant to baseball not only seems to be impacting performance but makes for a very boring product to watch.    No way under this philosophy do you see Rocco leaving in Morris for the 10th.   Or Kirby facing lefties and righties everyday.    The platooning is maddening to watch, particularly when there is a hot hitter sitting.   I don't know how they justify this when after 70 games, the offense is still below average.  I have been saying this for the past few years.  Rocco is still riding the huge coattails of Nelson Cruz.

But what do you suppose “gut feeling” is?  Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire, the guys who are given lots of credit for being  “by the gut” managers, certainly knew a great deal about players, their tendencies, and what matchups lead to success.  They just didn’t talk about it in terms of “analytics.”  Gut feeling is actually the thing that someone’s experiences have told them is the right thing to do — which incidentally is what analytics are, perhaps more carefully measured.  Would I occasionally make some different calls?  Maybe, but “analytics” is not immense evil that you portray it to be. 

As always, when the team struggles, we look for it to be the manager’s fault and they are idiots.  When the team is successful, the manager is a genius.  Having been involved in large group activities for many years, my experience is that when the group was successful, I got much more credit than I deserved, and also when the group was not so successful, shouldered more blame than I had control over.  Any type of team is a complicated dynamic that can change from year to year (or month to month or day to day).  Figuring out how to manage that is complicated, especially when individual players are not performing well. 

[DJL44]

I think this means Kirilloff is out of options. Being out of options and arbitration eligible means his time left playing for the Twins could be short.

[Riverbrian]

This will use up Kirilloff's last option. 

IMO... this is a huge deal.

Next off-season... he is Nick Gordon. He will be out of options. 

The Twins will have to give him a 26 man roster spot next year or lose him. 

The rest of 2024 in St. Paul or at the major league level is critical for Alex's future in Minnesota.  

[USAFChief]

Just now, DJL44 said:

I think this means Kirilloff is out of options. Being out of options and arbitration eligible means his time left playing for the Twins could be short.

That's an issue for next year, not 2024.

 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

no no no to Wallner..the guy cant hit anything...I dont see him ever working it out. Probably Martin or Hellman

Quite an over-statement. He had 25 at bats this year before being sent to AAA. Last year, in 213 at bats he had 14 HR, 41 RBI, and an .877 OPS. He's hitting again at AAA - I don't understand the 'can't hit anything' opinion.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

As always, when the team struggles, we look for it to be the manager’s fault and they are idiots.  When the team is successful, the manager is a genius.  Having been involved in large group activities for many years, my experience is that when the group was successful, I got much more credit than I deserved, and also when the group was not so successful, shouldered more blame than I had control over.  Any type of team is a complicated dynamic that can change from year to year (or month to month or day to day).  Figuring out how to manage that is complicated, especially when individual players are not performing well. 

According to many Twins Daily posters whenever players fail it is the manager/coaching staff's fault and when the players succeed it's only because they stopped listening to the manager/coaching staff who are always wrong and don't know anything about baseball.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That's an issue for next year, not 2024.

True, but it could mean Kirilloff is traded at the deadline if they think he has no future with the team.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That's an issue for next year, not 2024.

 

For the Twins Yes. 

For Kirilloff... it's a big 2024 issue. 

[garn from vancouver]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The fact that Willi Castro leads the team in Games Played and Plate Appearances shows how flawed this team either IS or IS playing.  Not sure which.  Failure of high picks like Kirilloff and Larnach to produce is a symptom and a cause.

 

or is willi just punching above his weight and having a great year? the road is littered with the failure of high draft picks and future (projected) superstars. i love castro's play this year he's incredibly valuable.

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I asked this question in the minor league report - what are the hitting coaches doing in MPLS?  Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien have all been sent down for hitting issues.  That is a lot of potential being lost. 

I think they had no choice but to send Alex down - but it is time to assess the massive coaching team for their abilities too. 

I think you're looking for someone to blame when it's easy to explain all three.

Wallner - always had swing-and-miss in his profile, and wasn't able to adjust to the pitchers' adjustments

Kirilloff - too many grounders

Julien - became too passive

You think the Twins coaching staff wasn't trying to fix those issues? Eventually the team has to admit that they're better off having the players make their changes (and potentially continuing their offensive struggles as they adapt to those changes) in the minors, so they aren't hurting the major league team. 

[wabene]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

According to many Twins Daily posters whenever players fail it is the manager/coaching staff's fault and when the players succeed it's only because they stopped listening to the manager/coaching staff who are always wrong and don't know anything about baseball.

Hilarious and true.

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

According to many Twins Daily posters whenever players fail it is the manager/coaching staff's fault and when the players succeed it's only because they stopped listening to the manager/coaching staff who are always wrong and don't know anything about baseball.

Exaggerate much?

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

The most hyped rookie in all of MLB this year was Jackson Holiday - can't miss, number 1 prospect. Started the year with the Orioles and put up a -0.5 WAR and was sent to AAA.

First he didn't start the year in the majors he was called up April 10th, Second He is barely 20 years old, way different than being 25 (Julien) and 26 (Wallner and AK),

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

How can the young players, prospects, be expected to perform well at the major league level when many times they are relegated to part time status with the Twins.  They need to play regularly to develop.  To have them play a bench role or a role in Roccos strict platoon system seems ridiculous.  Perhaps Kirilloffs days as a Twin are numbered.  Perhaps also that the team handles their playing g time very poorly.  Perhaps also that many of these prospects are just not that good.  Perhaps our scouting and development personnel needs to be looked into.

A lot of "perhaps" in that paragraph but I do agree with your comment about playing time.  IMHO, it takes at least a month of consistent playing to settle in.  Willie Mays started his MLB career by going 1 for 25.  Leo Durocher told him to stop trying to pull the ball and just make contact.  Obviously that advice worked out pretty well for Willie and 73 years later, it would probably work for many Twins' players today.  But home runs are the goal today so I don't think it will happen.  Plus Baldelli would've had Mays pinch hit a couple times a week and then optioned him back to the Minneapolis Millers.y

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

No, but all the minor league teams/coaches have a different mission than the Twins (whose mission is to win). They are to develop players, specifically ones that could make it to MLB. Those players play 5 or 6 games per week, bat in the top 4 in the batting order and don't get platooned in the minors.

Yes. AAA is to home the skills used to succeed in the MLB environment which has different parameters.

 

Not quite the same as 'holding the clipboard' in the NFL.

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

This isn't just an issue for the Twins - young players often take time to figure things out. The most hyped rookie in all of MLB this year was Jackson Holiday - can't miss, number 1 prospect. Started the year with the Orioles and put up a -0.5 WAR and was sent to AAA. I think we as Twins fans sometimes get tunnel vision related to the team.

Meanwhile, we often complain about veterans with slow starts - did it last year with Kepler, this year with Santana - yet they figured it out and both are solid contributors. They're veterans.

Yep. Look at Colt Keith, and Wyatt Langford, even Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez too. 

[1985Fan]

It’s a situation that doesn’t help young players. When a team calls up a young player to MLB, it’s expected that the player will struggle. No matter how well they played at AAA, players rarely perform well right away or even for a season. The best situation for young players in MLB is to be on a non-contending team that can tolerate below average performance and losing. Those teams have the luxury of patience with young players. Like it or not, young players need patience and teaching. 
The other thing young players need is playing time. You can’t learn on the bench. OJT is the only way. As other posters have said, Rocco can’t or won’t let the young guys play every day. His rigid analytics approach won’t let him stretch out pitchers or give learning AB’s. 
It’s possible that Kiriloff, Julien, Wallner will do better on another team in a different situation. Not sure Rocco/Twins have the patience or coaching staff to teach the young guys. 

[terrydactyls]

43 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

But what do you suppose “gut feeling” is?  Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire, the guys who are given lots of credit for being  “by the gut” managers, certainly knew a great deal about players, their tendencies, and what matchups lead to success.  They just didn’t talk about it in terms of “analytics.”  Gut feeling is actually the thing that someone’s experiences have told them is the right thing to do — which incidentally is what analytics are, perhaps more carefully measured.  Would I occasionally make some different calls?  Maybe, but “analytics” is not immense evil that you portray it to be. 

As always, when the team struggles, we look for it to be the manager’s fault and they are idiots.  When the team is successful, the manager is a genius.  Having been involved in large group activities for many years, my experience is that when the group was successful, I got much more credit than I deserved, and also when the group was not so successful, shouldered more blame than I had control over.  Any type of team is a complicated dynamic that can change from year to year (or month to month or day to day).  Figuring out how to manage that is complicated, especially when individual players are not performing well. 

Here is the difference between analytics and gut feel. 

Situation:  Bottom of the eighth inning.  Winning run is on second.  A left-hand pitcher is on the mound.  A left-hand batter is the next man up.  The analytics guy thinks any right-hand batter is a better option and sends up whatever right-hand hitter he has on the bench to pinch hit.  The gut feel manager thinks that the left-hand batter due up next has always hit this particular pitcher pretty well so he doesn't pinch hit.  Analytics versus gut feel.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Quote

Why the Twins Were Right to Demote Alex Kirilloff to Minors

The Twins were right to demote Kirilloff for the simple reason that the Twin Can Do No Wrong! 

 

[Road trip]

 

I also don't understand why so many are ready to give up on Wallner.

Wallner was unquestionably awful for 25 at bats in April... but it was only 25 at bats (the equivalent of roughly 6 games, were he playing full time...and he wasn't).  He also took a little while to warm up at AAA, but he is back to hitting there now.

Yet despite the awful April and some struggles last September, his career OPS+ at the MLB level is a very solid 126.  On the Twins 40 man roster, that career OPS+ is surpassed only by Royce Lewis (yes, better than Correa, Santana, Buxton, etc).  If Wallner "can't hit", it is a problem for the entire roster.

I'd like to see Wallner get another chance at MLB this year.  To write a young player off after 25 really bad at bats in April seems premature.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 minute ago, terrydactyls said:

Here is the difference between analytics and gut feel. 

Situation:  Bottom of the eighth inning.  Winning run is on second.  A left-hand pitcher is on the mound.  A left-hand batter is the next man up.  The analytics guy thinks any right-hand batter is a better option and sends up whatever right-hand hitter he has on the bench to pinch hit.  The gut feel manager thinks that the left-hand batter due up next has always hit this particular pitcher pretty well so he doesn't pinch hit.  Analytics versus gut feel.

No.  That’s not quite right.  IF the left-hand hitter has always hit this particular pitcher pretty well, that goes into the “analytics/gut feel” analysis for both managers.  One manager just chooses a more intuitive sounding term, while the other says, we looked at the numbers and made our decision.  For most (but not all) left-handed batters, this scenario doesn’t really come up very often.  Most of the time an averagish RH batter will do better than most left handers.