Twins and Mets Can Find Unique Path to a Pete Alonso Trade

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s trade deadline is quickly approaching, and the Twins are borderline to make the playoffs. Can Pete Alonso power Minnesota to a second-half surge?

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets have struggled this season, sitting well below .500 while having baseball’s highest payroll. It seems likely that the club will shed salaries by the trade deadline, and Pete Alonso is a logical trade candidate. He is being paid $20.5 million in his last year as arbitration-eligible, so he will be a rental piece for whatever team signs him. There are extra layers to acquiring Alonso, especially for a team like the Twins. So, what will it cost, and can the Twins find a way to add one of baseball’s biggest sluggers?

What will it cost to acquire Pete Alonso?
Other teams besides the Twins will be interested in adding Alonso for a potential playoff run, so the acquiring team must offer the right prospect package. Would the Twins offer one of their top-5 prospects to acquire him? Twins Daily’s top prospects include Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, David Festa, and Gabriel Gonzalez. From the team perspective, Jenkins and Lee are likely untouchable, while Rodriguez and Festa have seen their stock rise during the 2024 campaign. Gonzalez or another top-10 pitching prospect like Marco Raya might be enough to headline a package. There would likely need to be other players involved from outside the team’s top prospects. 

The Mets can also leverage the qualifying offer process in any deal for Alonso. If New York kept Alonso, they would most assuredly extend him the qualifying offer, which comes with draft pick compensation if a player signs with another team. A compensation round pick is valuable, including more money added to a team’s draft pool. A team trading for Alonso must provide New York with compensation worth more than the potential draft pick they would acquire if he left. It’s also worth noting that an acquiring team can’t extend a qualifying offer to Alonso because of the rules in place as part of the collective bargaining agreement. 

What are other trade considerations?
New York is paying Alonso over $20 million this season, so he will still be due close to $7 million for the season’s final two months. Minnesota cut payroll this winter because of the uncertainty surrounding their television contract. There might not be room to add Alonso’s contract without the Mets sending some money to pay down the end of the deal. To do this, the Twins might have to send more value in prospects to make up the difference. However, there is another way to make the money work. 

To balance the money, the Twins can include a veteran player with a higher salary. Minnesota shopped their veterans this winter, and Jorge Polanco was the only player traded. Christian Vázquez would be due a little over $3 million for the season’s last two months, plus the $10 million remaining on his contract for next season. Vázquez’s offensive performance has dipped in 2024, but he continues to provide strong defense with a fielding run value and framing in the 82nd percentile or higher. Perhaps New York would be interested in adding catching depth to offset Alonso’s contract, but the Twins still need to include multiple prospects. 

How does Alonso fit with the Twins?
Alonso has seen a slight drop in his home run production this season after three consecutive seasons where he averaged more than 40 homers per year. He’s been an All-Star the last two seasons, including finishing in the top-8 for the NL MVP in 2022. In 58 games this season, he is hitting .239/.315/.477 (.792) with a 130 OPS+. Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ primary first baseman this season, posting a 92 OPS+ in 54 games. However, his bat has improved recently, with a .841 OPS since April 25th. 

One of Minnesota’s most significant weaknesses this season has been the struggles of the team’s left-handed bats. Alonso is a right-handed hitter with almost identical splits against lefties (.867 OPS) and righties (.862 OPS) for his career. His OPS has dropped to .778 this season versus right-handed pitchers, but it’s 33 points higher against right-handed starters. He’s an impact bat who can make a difference for the stretch run. 

Home runs help to win games in October, and Alonso has been limited to three playoff games with the Mets. New York lost the Wild Card Series to San Diego in three games, but the club won the middle game when Alonso hit a homer. Minnesota needs to be creative at the upcoming trade deadline, and adding Alonso can help bolster the line-up. However, he might be one of the biggest bats moved this year, and plenty of teams will be interested in his services. 

Should the Twins try to add Alonso? What should the team be willing to give up? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[tony&rodney]

Sorry, but I just say no.

[CRF]

Why give up a bunch of players, just to get him for half a season? Makes no sense. 

[bean5302]

17 minutes ago, CRF said:

Why give up a bunch of players, just to get him for half a season? Makes no sense. 

The reason for the trade is you think it makes you more likely to win the World Series. 

[Parfigliano]

16 minutes ago, CRF said:

Why give up a bunch of players, just to get him for half a season? Makes no sense. 

Met fan here. 

[rv78]

The Twins aren't going deep in any playoff scenario if they even make the playoffs this year. You need at least 3 legit shutdown starters to make a deep playoff run and their 4 best, Lopez, Ryan, Paddack and Ober are hit and miss at anytime. As we saw last year with Sonny Gray, all it takes is 1 bad outing to end a playoff run and Lopez, Ryan, Paddack and Ober do that consistantly. No point in trading prospects away for a 1/2 year of a big bat that won't make enough of a difference. A hot player at the right time like, Wallner or Larnach or Kirilloff or Miranda or Lewis will accomplish the same thing as adding Alonso. Stay the course, keep building from within, let the youngsters play, and add a true verifible ACE starter. It's the last piece to the puzzle, another HR bat won't matter.

[bean5302]

I'd say no. Alonso is "good" not great hitter. wRC+ 120 territory for the past two years, which is just a bit better than I'd expect for Jose Miranda. Alonso is best suited to DH duties. So I just don't see Alonso as a significant upgrade over what I expect the Twins to be rolling out the dugout at that point.

In regard to the writers idea of throwing a veteran back at the Mets to offset salary... what possible advantage would the Mets see in that type of move? The Mets are going to be happy to eat the $7MM, but they're going to eat it in the hopes of getting a better return, not to dump salary.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, rv78 said:

The Twins aren't going deep in any playoff scenario if they even make the playoffs this year...

That's why playoff caliber teams (like the Twins) make trades. Doesn't have to be for a hitter, there will be some starters available.

[Brandon]

So far this season, Alonso isn’t a big enough upgrade for the cost to acquire.   I’m sure there will be better buys by the trade deadline.  

[Althebum82]

Great outside-the-box thinking, Cody. 

You do present as compelling of an argument that can be offered.  Alonso is an accomplished and proven force.

In the end, I just don't have faith that the Twins can go this direction.  

But, I would love to be proven wrong.

[Whitey333]

No tò this trade.  It makes no sense at all

[Jocko87]

How do they match up? They don't.

Let's combine Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Christian Walker and Vlady into one article and keep this thing moving along.  

What's that you say? Already had a Vlady piece? Did you think it would be the only one?

[darin617]

You also only trade for top stars when you have a team worthy of a deep playoff run/.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

How do they match up? They don't.

Let's combine Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Christian Walker and Vlady into one article and keep this thing moving along.  

What's that you say? Already had a Vlady piece? Did you think it would be the only one?

JD Martinez is the better target.  his salary is less, and he will cost less prospects and we could probably get the Mets to throw in some cast to balance out the cash difference.  I imagine the Twins are not adding payroll if they are not getting money for the television games.  

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

You also only trade for top stars when you have a team worthy of a deep playoff run/.

This team is worthy of a deep playoff run.  especially if we trade for top stars.

[cmoss84]

Luzardo>>>>>pete

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Luzardo>>>>>pete

May want to rethink that after his 9 run stinker last night.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1st point—the Mets don’t care at all about shedding salary.  If they are trading a player, it’s to accumulate assets, not to improve Cohen’s checking balance.

2nd point—given point 1, while the Mets would have no qualms about eating Alonso’s contract AND taking back money on a veteran contract at the same time, that veteran would need to be a superior piece to Alonso.  Vazquez, as one of the very worst regulars in MLB, in no way fits that description.

3rd point—Falvine have historically shown incredible loyalty to their offseason veteran signings, even when those signings are on one year deals (see Gallo, Joey).  As such, I find it very unlikely the Twins invest capital in acquiring a player that would move Carlos Santana to the bench.

[Otaknam]

An Alonso trade only makes sense if his bat is the missing piece for a serious WS run. But this team is only a fringe playoff team with a penurious owner that has cut payroll, a move that drastically reduces their playoff chances. And they don’t have a number one starter. So trading some top prospects for Alonso makes no sense. 

[Karbo]

I would much rather get a starter with some remaining time or a top starter on an expiring contract.

[Otaknam]

24 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

1st point—the Mets don’t care at all about shedding salary.  If they are trading a player, it’s to accumulate assets, not to improve Cohen’s checking balance.

2nd point—given point 1, while the Mets would have no qualms about eating Alonso’s contract AND taking back money on a veteran contract at the same time, that veteran would need to be a superior piece to Alonso.  Vazquez, as one of the very worst regulars in MLB, in no way fits that description.

3rd point—Falvine have historically shown incredible loyalty to their offseason veteran signings, even when those signings are on one year deals (see Gallo, Joey).  As such, I find it very unlikely the Twins invest capital in acquiring a player that would move Carlos Santana to the bench.

Good point! The FO is loathe to admit its mistakes, which is confirmed by keeping Gallo and his 45% strikeout rate last year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO those are all too high of prices to pay a the deadline. If the Twins were willing to overpay, you do it right now and get 100 games out of it. I would trade and overpay for a rental player but not for one that has less than a zero percent chance of re-signing here.

[NYCTK]

Because of the Mets payroll, their QO compensation if he walks is only a 4th round pick, right? 

I honestly don't think it would take a whole lot to get Pete. Gonzalez and one other lottery ticket. If you told me we could get a half season of Alonso for trading Jorge Polanco, I'd be ecstatic so I'm in. 

[chpettit19]

While I believe a big, everyday, middle-of-the-order bat is a better target than pitching at the deadline, I don't like targeting a guy you have no chance of re-signing. I'd take Alonso for Gonzalez straight up with the Mets eating the rest of his deal, but I don't think the Mets take that deal. The Twins need a bat like his, but not on a rental deal for what it'd cost to get him.

[DJL44]

There is plenty of room on the roster for another LF/1B/DH bat. Alonso is a good bat but JD Martinez is probably a better bat and would not cost as much for prospects. 

[Doctor Gast]

No, I'd rather stick with Julien, Miranda & Kiriloff & see how far they can take us. We kind of blew our wad for DeSclavani, Topa, Margot & Santana that was very bad management so we can't afford the $ & prospects for Alonzo even if he's worth it, which IMO he isn't. For the big game, I still have faith in Lopez to come through but not so much Ryan, Ober or Paddack. We need another SP who we can produce into another Lopez to start a postseason game. I'd make a trade for more reasonable Luzardo or Cabrera for more years who can really help us.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

"New York is paying Alonso over $20 million this season, so he will still be due close to $7 million for the season’s final two months."

That is the end of the article.  Nothing else needs to be said.  As this ownership group has continuously shown this year, nickels are more important than wins.  Nothing will happen that adds payroll, no matter how much a move might make sense.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We need another SP who we can produce into another Lopez to start a postseason game.

I don't know if this is how teams win in the playoffs anymore. Any starting pitcher they get is going to give maybe 5-10 innings per playoff series. A big bat can contribute every game.

[Mike Sixel]

No way I pay the price for half a year. No way.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

While I believe a big, everyday, middle-of-the-order bat is a better target than pitching at the deadline, I don't like targeting a guy you have no chance of re-signing. I'd take Alonso for Gonzalez straight up with the Mets eating the rest of his deal, but I don't think the Mets take that deal. The Twins need a bat like his, but not on a rental deal for what it'd cost to get him.

Since I'm not going to pay money for baseballtradevalues, I'll go ahead and estimate that one:
Alonso = July30+ = 1.0 WAR = $8MM, assuming the Mets eat Alonso's salary.
Gonzalez is probably enough to get Alonso IMHO.

Somebody might be willing to overpay for him, though. Personally, I expect Wallner/Larnach to be far better than Alonso at this point.