Twins and Mets Can Find Unique Path to a Pete Alonso Trade

[LambchoP]

I doubt the twins make a big move at the deadline, and definitely not for a rental. We're not winning a world series this year and they know it. I'd say give Miranda the bulk of the starts at 1st base as an audition for the starting role next season. Dump Margot, Farmer and Santana and call up the guys in the minors playing well like Keirsey, ERod dnd maybe Festa. Then next off-season look to pick up a front end starter, maybe a bullpen piece and some legit backups and we might have a chance.

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I doubt the twins make a big move at the deadline, and definitely not for a rental. We're not winning a world series this year and they know it. I'd say give Miranda the bulk of the starts at 1st base as an audition for the starting role next season. Dump Margot, Farmer and Santana and call up the guys in the minors playing well like Keirsey, ERod dnd maybe Festa. Then next off-season look to pick up a front end starter, maybe a bullpen piece and some legit backups and we might have a chance.

The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better.

The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better.

The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.

What level prospects will you give up to get an elite SP and Alonso? You're losing 3-4 top 15 guys on the odds those two make this a great team, for half a year?

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What level prospects will you give up to get an elite SP and Alonso? You're losing 3-4 top 15 guys on the odds those two make this a great team, for half a year?

I wouldn't want Alonso; feel free to read my posts on the subject.

Depends on the starter, doesn't it? Are they a rental? Are they a multi-year guy? Is the ownership willing to acquire $10MM of salary at the deadline? (I bet they are).

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I believe JD Martinez can only DH at this point so he'd lock out Miranda, Larnach, and Buxton and Lewis on their rest days.  That doesn't even include lost DH at-bats for Jeffers.

I don't care. He's a better bat than Miranda, Larnach or Buxton. They can sit the bench on their rest day.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I wouldn't want Alonso; feel free to read my posts on the subject.

Depends on the starter, doesn't it? Are they a rental? Are they a multi-year guy? Is the ownership willing to acquire $10MM of salary at the deadline? (I bet they are).

Ah, I misunderstood your post. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Since I'm not going to pay money for baseballtradevalues, I'll go ahead and estimate that one:
Alonso = July30+ = 1.0 WAR = $8MM, assuming the Mets eat Alonso's salary.
Gonzalez is probably enough to get Alonso IMHO.

Somebody might be willing to overpay for him, though. Personally, I expect Wallner/Larnach to be far better than Alonso at this point.

Far better? He's at a 128 OPS+ and 125 wRC+ currently (good for 36th and 43rd amongst qualified hitters), and has a career 136 OPS+ and 134 wRC+. What are you defining as far better? 140+ OPS+ or wRC+? There were 10 qualified hitters in all of baseball last year with a 140 or better wRC+. 29 with a 125 (Alonso's current number) or better. 10 and 32 hitters for OPS+ of 140 or 125. Pete Alonso was 33rd in baseball in 2023 in OPS+ and 41st for wRC+. And you think Wallner/Larnach will be far better than that? I hope you're right. It'd be great to have a borderline MVP candidate or 2 on the roster. Personally, I don't think either of those guys are top 30 hitters in baseball.

[Finlander]

$7M for two months of Alonso makes no sense for a team that chose Margot over better OF backup candidates due to financial constraints.

Tampa Bay has difficulties this season, and they are constantly operating under very tight budgetary conditions. I'd prefer to see the Twins target someone like Yandy Diaz, who has a great bat and is quickly pricing himself out of reach of TB. The Rays have dropped in the standings with a very difficult path to the playoffs this year. They have IF prospects that they'll need to clear space for (Caminero, Aranda, Mead, Isaac), so they may shop Diaz and/or Paredes. Twins should have TB on speed dial. A deal for a player like Diaz would be more worth parting with a high prospect or two than Alonso.

[cmoss84]

5 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

May want to rethink that after his 9 run stinker last night.

Still want Luzardo.

Maybe that brings his stock down a bit 🤔 

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Far better? He's at a 128 OPS+ and 125 wRC+ currently (good for 36th and 43rd amongst qualified hitters), and has a career 136 OPS+ and 134 wRC+. What are you defining as far better? 140+ OPS+ or wRC+? There were 10 qualified hitters in all of baseball last year with a 140 or better wRC+. 29 with a 125 (Alonso's current number) or better. 10 and 32 hitters for OPS+ of 140 or 125. Pete Alonso was 33rd in baseball in 2023 in OPS+ and 41st for wRC+. And you think Wallner/Larnach will be far better than that? I hope you're right. It'd be great to have a borderline MVP candidate or 2 on the roster. Personally, I don't think either of those guys are top 30 hitters in baseball.

Yes. I believe Wallner is that much better than Alonso. He'll be the wRC+ 145 hitter he showed last year, and perhaps better still.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. I believe Wallner is that much better than Alonso. He'll be the wRC+ 145 hitter he showed last year, and perhaps better still.

Dang, I hope you're right. That would be very nice.

[bean5302]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Dang, I hope you're right. That would be very nice.

Yeah, I'm very high on Wallner, and I thought he was a sure fire scrub before he learned how to take walk one day a couple years ago, lol. I believe it'll depend on his mental state, but the way he covered the plate last year, how he wasn't weak against really any pitches and how much power he showed left me highly impressed. I found he was pretty similar at the plate to Bryce Harper in a lot of ways.

Wallner's weak inside against pitches, but he crowds the plate so hard it's almost a given.

If he turns into a dud, I'll be surprised and highly disappointed.

[chpettit19]

Just now, bean5302 said:

Yeah, I'm very high on Wallner, and I thought he was a sure fire scrub before he learned how to take walk one day a couple years ago, lol. I believe it'll depend on his mental state, but the way he covered the plate last year, how he wasn't weak against really any pitches and how much power he showed left me highly impressed. I found he was pretty similar at the plate to Bryce Harper in a lot of ways.

Wallner's weak inside against pitches, but he crowds the plate so hard it's almost a given.

If he turns into a dud, I'll be surprised and highly disappointed.

I think there's a lot of room between dud and borderline MVP. I think he falls in there. Streaky power hitter who gets sliced up by teams that can attack his weaknesses (mostly inside mixed with soft away like Houston shredded him with in the postseason), but punishes teams that can't consistently beat him in.

If he turns into a 145 OPS+ hitter I'll be surprised and thrilled. Not saying it's impossible, but don't think it's likely. I'd be happy with a 120 OPS+ for him with a spike season here and there where he gets to 135+.

[darin617]

On 6/5/2024 at 12:13 AM, Brandon said:

This team is worthy of a deep playoff run.  especially if we trade for top stars.

I know t's early in June, but have you looked at how many games the Twins are behind Cleveland at the moment?

[cmoss84]

Alonso is worth 2 months/7m...if you can find someone to take Vazquez fir dirt cheap. Not likely. But hey...never know.

[Major League Ready]

On 6/5/2024 at 10:33 AM, bean5302 said:

The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better.

The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.

You think 1 SP puts them on the level of the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Phillies?  I don't think one SP even puts them on the level of Cleveland.  We need to accumulate talent to get over the hump.  Throwing away 6 year assets for 1/2 year assets in support of a mediocre team is not the way to get over the hump.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

You think 1 SP puts them on the level of the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Phillies?  I don't think one SP even puts them on the level of Cleveland.  We need to accumulate talent to get over the hump.  Throwing away 6 year assets for 1/2 year assets in support of a mediocre team is not the way to get over the hump.

You're right. An SP1 wouldn't make the Twins substantially worse as a team so they'd still be better than the extreme luck fueled Guardians. As far as on par with the best teams in baseball, probably not, but the 1987 Twins had the 9th best record in baseball. They were an average team with only a couple real good pieces. You have to make the playoffs before you can win playoff games.

Now, what would an SP1 cost? That depends on team control, contact AAV and how they're pitching up to the deadline point.

If Blake Snell were to rebound and have a great 5-8 start history before the deadline while being healthy, what would he cost? Probably not a ton. He'd be viewed as a potential rental with a big negative in the player option.

If the Diamondbacks are out of it, Zac Gallen would require a lot more prospect capital. He's cheap this year and he'll be under market value next year. Probably 1 top 3 prospect, plus another 1 of our top 5s, plus 2 more of our top 10s.

But, Falvey will do this. His job is on the line as his contract is over this year, and Joe Pohlad made it clear the team's expectations have shifted from making the playoffs/winning the division to advancing in the playoffs.

[USAFChief]

On 6/5/2024 at 6:42 PM, bean5302 said:

Yes. I believe Wallner is that much better than Alonso. He'll be the wRC+ 145 hitter he showed last year, and perhaps better still.

Nonsense.

There is zero chance Wallner or Larnach are better than Alonso in 2024.

None.

 

[FargoFanMan]

On 6/4/2024 at 7:15 PM, rv78 said:

The Twins aren't going deep in any playoff scenario if they even make the playoffs this year. You need at least 3 legit shutdown starters to make a deep playoff run and their 4 best, Lopez, Ryan, Paddack and Ober are hit and miss at anytime. As we saw last year with Sonny Gray, all it takes is 1 bad outing to end a playoff run and Lopez, Ryan, Paddack and Ober do that consistantly. No point in trading prospects away for a 1/2 year of a big bat that won't make enough of a difference. A hot player at the right time like, Wallner or Larnach or Kirilloff or Miranda or Lewis will accomplish the same thing as adding Alonso. Stay the course, keep building from within, let the youngsters play, and add a true verifible ACE starter. It's the last piece to the puzzle, another HR bat won't matter.

Agreed somewhat. Although I think the Twins need a game changing LH hitter instead. Kepler has been good at times but too inconsistent to balance out C4, Lewis, Jeffers etc. the switch hitters in Castro and Santana work for the regular season but in the playoffs maybe not. As far as another “playoff caliber” starter… Always! Time will tell who’s available and who’s injured come deadline time but as we found out last October even a “playoff caliber” starter (sonny gray) can lay an egg and a “playoff caliber” lineup (astros, rangers) can carry a team as well. 

[cmoss84]

Raya and Severino for Alonso.

Festa and Kirilloff for Luzardo.

Do it. Do it.