Make it Official! Twins 5, Rangers 3: We Have Lift Off from Kirilloff, Again

[Ted Schwerzler]

Chris Paddack was on the bump for the Twins on Saturday. Coming off an eight-inning start last time out against the Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota may have been unsure of what his arm would give. The Twins looked to take the series against the reigning World Series champions who had Michael Lorenzen on the mound.

Image courtesy of Credit: © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Chris Paddack 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (73 pitches, 47 strikes, 2 whiffs)
Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (5)
Top 3 WPA: Alex Kirilloff (.489), Byron Buxton (.135), Carlos Santana (.090)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Walks Will Haunt
Chris Paddack was pushed through a long at-bat by Marcus Semien in the first inning before grabbing quick outs to end the inning in order.

Michael Lorenzen was on the bump for the reigning World Series champions, and if there’s something that stood out about his numbers, it was going to be the walk rate. After getting Edouard Julien to fly out, he walked Carlos Correa before Jose Miranda and Byron Buxton reached on base hits. With two outs, Ryan Jeffers stepped in, worked a full count, and trotted to first with a walk that scored Correa for the first run of the game.

Walking Carlos Santana to start the second inning, Lorenzen allowed three free passes to the first eight batters he saw. Minnesota couldn’t advance their first baseman past second base though, and he was stranded to end the inning.

Chris Paddack Showing Fatigue
After throwing eight innings against the Guardians his last time out, it was notable for Rocco Baldelli’s starter that all of his stuff was down Saturday afternoon. Corey Seager crushed a single to start the fourth inning and then advanced to second on a ground out that Correa made a great play on. Adolis Garcia got Paddack for a ground rule double and the extra-base hit tied the game at one. Max Kepler made a nice catch up against the wall in right field against Leody Tavares to help Paddack out, but it was clear he didn’t have his best stuff. With just two whiffs through 60 pitches, he as making it work while dancing a fine line.

Jeffers, looking to break out of a small slump, led off the fourth inning with his 13th double. Ripped off the wall, he just missed leaving the yard. It would’ve been out in all but 10 parks, including Target Field. Alex Kirilloff went down on strikes before Santana popped out and Willi Castro struck out to waste the leadoff double.

Duran got Paddack for a solo shot in the fifth inning and the Rangers had their first lead of the game.

Bullpen Gives Way
Taking over for Paddack, and ending his day early, Kody Funderburk came on. The lefty came on and quickly recorded an out but then walked Josh Smith. He quickly stole second base and came home on a Leody Tavares double to make it a 3-1 game. Minnesota went down in the order during the bottom half and found themselves running out of opportunity.

Cole Sands got the Rangers 8-9-1 hitters in the seventh inning, retiring them in order. Lorenzen warmed up for the seventh inning and before throwing a pitch, had to be replaced by Jesus Tinoco. A Kirilloff single and Santana walk put runners on with no outs. Tinoco got Castro swinging and then was lifted for David Robertson. With Julien up, Bruce Bochy got hot with umpire Laz Diaz and was given the heave-ho. Julien walked to load the bases before Correa lifted a sacrifice fly to make it a 3-2 game. Jose Miranda singled to left, but Santana was thrown out on a very close play at the plate. Minnesota had a bit more work to do heading to the eighth inning.

We Have Kirilloff
Still facing Robertson, Kepler started the inning with a single before Buxton walked and gave the Twins a pair of runners with no outs. Looking to do damage, for the second straight day Kirilloff crushed a baseball over the fence, into the Rangers bullpen. His three-run shot was a nice flash of the power, and put Minnesota back in the lead 5-3. Kirby Yates came on to finish the inning, and Jhoan Duran was going to get a save opportunity on his bobblehead day.

Duran came in and got the Rangers in order despite having diminished velocity once again. Giving the Twins a series win, they are in a place to sweep the three-game set on Sunday. Minnesota finished the day with the same amount of walks (7) as strikeouts.

Notes
Royce Lewis begins his rehab assignment with the St. Paul Saints on Saturday. It will be his first game action since suffering a quad injury on Opening Day. There is no set timetable for his return (a rehab assignment can be up to 20 days), but he should be close to a promotion to the active roster soon.

Max Kepler played his 1,000 career game for the Twins. He is the 18th player in Twins history to reach that milestone. 

What’s Next? 

It’s a Pablo Day at Target Field on Sunday as Pablo Lopez looks to best the Texas Rangers. A win would give Minnesota a series sweep over the defending champs.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

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[Patzky]

I wasn't aware of Paddack's fatigue or the reason for it. Sometimes Rocco knows what's going on. I wonder if some skipped starts are in his future, as he recovers from surgery. We could stretch the schedule around off days or get Varland (or even maybe Dobnak or Sands) to start a game.

 

A very satisfying dub.

 

[stringer bell]

I remain a big Kirilloff fan and he has struggled for quite a while, but two homers in two days makes me believe the rough stretch might be in the rear view mirror. AK's OPS snuck above .700 again, league average, but a much warmer spell might be in the future. I also believe today might be his first multi-hit since he was 4-4 in the first 10 days of the season. 

[Peter]

3 nerve wracking wins in a row!!! Huge home run by AK to get win!!! Let’s get sweep tomorrow!!!! 

[Aggies7]

How do you explain this level of streakiness? It’s not like many of the games during the 7 game losing streak were hard fought, competitive losses. They looked bad bad. Now all of a sudden they’re finding ways to win games again. And apparently in bunches. Absolutely bizarre to see 12 wins, then 7 losses and now 4 wins. In the first two months!

[Patzky]

27 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

How do you explain this level of streakiness? It’s not like many of the games during the 7 game losing streak were hard fought, competitive losses. They looked bad bad. Now all of a sudden they’re finding ways to win games again. And apparently in bunches. Absolutely bizarre to see 12 wins, then 7 losses and now 4 wins. In the first two months!

Royce got a single in his first at bat. Brooks Lee got three hits today. Help is coming..

[tony&rodney]

Excellent recap. 

The season is young, the Twins are fine - no worries.

[Doctor Gast]

Another great close game win. 3 close game wins are 3X better than 1 blowout win. That's what we need to be winners.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Royce got a single in his first at bat. Brooks Lee got three hits today. Help is coming..

… and stole a base in the first inning.

[jmlease1]

Love seeing the Twins working counts and drawing walks like this. Texas is lucky we didn't blow this one out. Good things will continue to come if we keep piling on the baserunners.

Good that Paddack was able to grind through 5; hopefully the velocity bounces back, but you have to expect days like this for a guy coming off a substantial injury. The fact that he was able to get through without his best stuff and keep us in the game is good news, I think.

The blast from Kirilloff sure helped. Hopefully he gets on a bit of a run and the hits pile up for him. I still believe in his talent; when he's going well it's as sweet a swing as you'll see and he can hammer hits all over the park.

Keep it rolling!

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

How do you explain this level of streakiness? It’s not like many of the games during the 7 game losing streak were hard fought, competitive losses. They looked bad bad. Now all of a sudden they’re finding ways to win games again. And apparently in bunches. Absolutely bizarre to see 12 wins, then 7 losses and now 4 wins. In the first two months!

I came here to say the same thing. I guess they're only capable of winning or losing in bunches!

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

… and stole a base in the first inning.

Jenkins had another great day too. I hope they promote Jenkins and Lee together until Brooks gets the call to the bigs.

[DocBauer]

Good win. Can they make it a sweep? If Lopez can bring his A game, e en his B+ game we can. So far, he's replicating his 2023 season, good start, looks very human at times but still solid, and we can only hope he continues his last year pattern and cranks it up another notch going forward again.

Paddack gutted out 5 solid innings. I do suspect he will get a skip or two at some point this season, All Star break will help with that, but he's been mostly impressive this season. Nice to see Sands rebound. 

I'm also a big fan/believer in AK, as long as he's finally healthy. Weak contact and ground balls are his MO when hurt. But he and the Twins say he's fine, just struggling. After his hit start, he's been pretty bad for about 3 weeks. Don't look now but his past 7bdays, 16 AB, he's been on FIRE to the tune of .313/.389/.875 with power flashing again. Hard work and the law of averages might be starting to pay off here.

On the other hand, while Larnach has better seasonal numbers than AK, he's really been fighting it as of late. But if you've been able to watchnor listen to the games, he's been mostly squaring up on the ball for a bunch of hard hit outs. Will the worm turn for him soon? I sure hope so. 

Despite seemingly being around forever, both Kirilloff and Larnach have yet to eclipse 800 ML AB. They've both had their careers interrupted by injuries. Both are sitting around 26-27yo and while I won't say make or break, this seems to be the year where they need to stay healthy and push their success forward.

I haven't given up hope on Wallner at all. He might be better than both, despite having massive struggles this season. If 2 of these 3 get their game together, it's a huge win! Add in Emma being reasonably close, the future looks bright.

SUPER EXCITED to have Lewis, and Lee, and Jenkins back playing ball again! Royce back in about 10 days? Lee at St Paul sometime this next week? 

Fingers are crossed!

[BH67]

15 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I'm also a big fan/believer in AK, as long as he's finally healthy. Weak contact and ground balls are his MO when hurt. But he and the Twins say he's fine, just struggling. After his hit start, he's been pretty bad for about 3 weeks. Don't look now but his past 7bdays, 16 AB, he's been on FIRE to the tune of .313/.389/.875 with power flashing again. Hard work and the law of averages might be starting to pay off here.

Speaking of the law of averages, regression to the mean should occur with the Guardians and Royals soon. And hopefully the T-Wolves on Sunday.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Fun win! And fun to listen to this game on a long drive in the car. Glad for AK - sometimes you just need to let a guy play through it. 

[darwin22]

Got to admit I (and many others) have been spoiled by the performance of Duran over the last year+, but is sure was nice to see Duran dominate in the 9th to secure the victory. This was his 1st clean outing since May 12th vs. Toronto.

Moreover, Duran did so on 8 pitches. Although a tad winded after getting consecutive 3-1 putouts to start the inning, it was IMPRESSIVE to see Duran reach back with pure GAS---100-100-101 to set Heim down to end the game.  I know Duran has very good offspeed pitches, but then you can locate 100 heat----just bring the GAS young man. 

[DocBauer]

9 minutes ago, BH67 said:

Speaking of the law of averages, regression to the mean should occur with the Guardians and Royals soon. And hopefully the T-Wolves on Sunday.

I don't believe in the Royals, not yet. 

The Guardians...man, I still have a hard time calling them that...are solid as they generally are. I have tremendous respect for them, and I picked them 2nd for the ALC in 2024. Unfortunately, head to head, we've had problems facing them head to head. But I still think as a TEAM, the Twins are the more complete "unit" and should come out on top. 

My opinion coming in to the season, and I'm holding on to that opinion despite some injuries and maddening streakiness.

[DocBauer]

2 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Got to admit I (and many others) have been spoiled by the performance of Duran over the last year+, but is sure was nice to see Duran dominate in the 9th to secure the victory. This was his 1st clean outing since May 12th vs. Toronto.

Moreover, Duran did so on 8 pitches. Although a tad winded after getting consecutive 3-1 putouts to start the inning, it was IMPRESSIVE to see Duran reach back with pure GAS---100-100-101 to set Heim down to end the game.  I know Duran has very good offspeed pitches, but then you can locate 100 heat----just bring the GAS young man. 

I don't know...nor does anyone else I'd wager...where the drop in velocity has come from. I mean, we're still talking a guy throwing consistently 99-101! That's still HUGE. I believe strike 3 today was 102!

It just might be impossible for a human being to throw 103 and touch 104 on occasion past a certain point. MAYBE his while build up being interrupted is the issue? MAYBE 99-101 is his new norm? AGAIN, that's HUGE velocity. 

IMO, we might still see a couple RPM come back once he settles in and gets in a routine. And he's hung a bad pitch or two here and there. It happens! But MAYBE, what he needs is to drop the curve and splinker a MPH or two just to change the batters eye?

Just spitballing.

[Ted Schwerzler]

4 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

How do you explain this level of streakiness? It’s not like many of the games during the 7 game losing streak were hard fought, competitive losses. They looked bad bad. Now all of a sudden they’re finding ways to win games again. And apparently in bunches. Absolutely bizarre to see 12 wins, then 7 losses and now 4 wins. In the first two months!

They need to figure some consistency out.... 

 

[Guest]

My guess is Larnach goes down when Lewis is activated.  Margot warrants a DFA, but Larnach has options.

[Fatbat]

Paddack is a horse. Ride that guy and take care of his arm. Ak’s on fire and the team now draws walks. What. Is. Going. On? 

[knothole61]

56 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

My guess is Larnach goes down when Lewis is activated.  Margot warrants a DFA, but Larnach has options.

I'm hoping to see Julian sent down...more than anyone on the team he is in need of a "reset."  Among other things, he seems to have lost his discerning eye at the plate.

[Mark G]

10 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

How do you explain this level of streakiness? It’s not like many of the games during the 7 game losing streak were hard fought, competitive losses. They looked bad bad. Now all of a sudden they’re finding ways to win games again. And apparently in bunches. Absolutely bizarre to see 12 wins, then 7 losses and now 4 wins. In the first two months!

It might be as simple as the competition:  White Sox and angels were 10 of the 12, then we ran into the Yankees and Guardians, then got Washington and Texas.  Beat the also rans, and get beat by the front runners.  I am waiting to see how we do against the Yankees again in a few days; that will be another good test.  

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

It might be as simple as the competition:  White Sox and angels were 10 of the 12, then we ran into the Yankees and Guardians, then got Washington and Texas.  Beat the also rans, and get beat by the front runners.  I am waiting to see how we do against the Yankees again in a few days; that will be another good test.  

We have a rather important series coming up before the Yankees. 2024 Guaranteed Wins in the AL Central only come at a  Guaranteed Rate 

[Karbo]

8 hours ago, knothole61 said:

I'm hoping to see Julian sent down...more than anyone on the team he is in need of a "reset."  Among other things, he seems to have lost his discerning eye at the plate.

IMO he needs to be a little more aggressive on the corner pitches. Way too many called 3rd strikes on border line pitches.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Patzky said:

Jenkins had another great day too. I hope they promote Jenkins and Lee together until Brooks gets the call to the bigs.

Lee will be joining the Saints when his rehab is done. They're not moving Jenkins directly to AAA.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

My guess is Larnach goes down when Lewis is activated.  Margot warrants a DFA, but Larnach has options.

It will be interesting on WHO gets demoted:

IMO, it won’t happen, but I would option Julien. Struck out TWICE looking again. As well, he got a favorable call on a check swing foul, caught, that was missed by the Umps - turned into a walk. Cover 2B with Castro & Farmer and let Eddie figure out his approach in St Paul. His last HR was April 25th!…….He’s hitting .200.

Can’t option Larnach, IMO because of his LH bat and the fact that they play RH pitching 75% of the time. Need his bat most of the time for DH. His relative success at the plate still plays at this point as well.

I think it will be Miranda for lack of a better, more logical move across the 13 spots, (least unsettling) when Lewis is activated. I think this happens Thursday so he blends a day at Target before traveling to Houston …….,Lewis stole a base and had 4 AB’s in first game. Been running and fielding for weeks - hitting too…….I think he gets a game today with Saints and he’s ready…….may delay for another couple games with them, and I don’t think they don’t play early in week - we’ll see?

I do agree - Margot may be the least missed guy but it compromises the RH hitting line-up on paper (per organization’s approach)………..I guess they could play Kepler/Kirilloff in RF against LH pitching? Tough to DFA a guy at $5.5M who’s hit .264 & .274 in ‘23 & ‘22…..and progressing slowly……..once he’s gone, he’s gone. Option guys are exchangeable. Tough call.

Potentially V. LH pitching:

Castro - Buxton - Kepler/Kirilloff …..Lewis - CC - Farmer - Santana.. Miranda …..Vazquez/Jeffers

[Karbo]

I'd hate to see Miranda get sent down, though at this point that seems the most likely move with this mgmt. team. Miranda so far has been one of the best and most steady hitters in the lineup.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

IMO he needs to be a little more aggressive on the corner pitches. Way too many called 3rd strikes on border line pitches.

WAAAY too many takes!! Seems to be stuck in a guess hitting approach and “caught off guard” routinely with pitches in the zone. Many, many times on 3-2 counts! Twice Saturday with the backward K as well as the check swing K that was missed by the umps. Needs a fresh approach and he’s not getting that playing, nearly daily, in the Show.

Has not hit a Home Run since April 25th!!!!!

[hitterscount]

15 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

How do you explain this level of streakiness? It’s not like many of the games during the 7 game losing streak were hard fought, competitive losses. They looked bad bad. Now all of a sudden they’re finding ways to win games again. And apparently in bunches. Absolutely bizarre to see 12 wins, then 7 losses and now 4 wins. In the first two months!

I would explain it to the level of competition. Texas is not the same team, at least currently, than they were last season. Still 12 wins in a row, regardless of who they were against is not easy. The seven losses took away my increasing optimism . They just don't compete against the Yankees or Guardians, which is an issue if they make the playoffs.