It’s Time to Reevaluate the Minnesota Twins Top Ranked Prospect

[Cody Christie]

Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee are returning from injury, while Emmanuel Rodriguez is slicing up the Texas League. Has Rodriguez done enough to surpass the other two players and rank as the organization’s top prospect?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (Photo of Walker Jenkins)

Prospect lists have evolved, especially in an age with more data from the minor league level. Previously, the national outlets would reevaluate their lists once per year and release those lists during the offseason. Now, there are opportunities and platforms to update lists regularly. Some players get injured or perform poorly, while others graduate from prospect eligibility. At Twins Daily, the writers and readers vote on the team’s top prospects, and the site’s list shows how a player's stock has risen or fallen, with the list being updated earlier this week.

The Twins had a consensus trio at the top of the organization’s rankings entering the 2024 season. Walker Jenkins was considered the team’s number-one prospect, with the three national outlets ranking him in the top 16. Twins Daily ranked Brooks Lee as the number two prospect, and MLB.com ranked him in their top 20. Emmanuel Rodriguez was a consensus top-65 prospect by the three national outlets, but there were still flaws that he needed to address as he climbed the organizational ladder. A lot has changed through the season’s early months, so how much have there been changes to these three players' rankings?

Walker Jenkins, OF
Level: Low-A
Jenkins was the fifth overall pick in a loaded 2023 MLB Draft, and he didn’t disappoint in his professional debut. In 26 games, he hit .362/.417/.571 (.989) with 12 extra-base hits and a 13.3 K% with a 8.6 BB%. Minnesota sent the 19-year-old back to the Florida State League, the level where he finished last season. However, he strained his left hamstring while making a play in the outfield. Jenkins recently started a rehab, so he should return to Fort Myers shortly. Overall, he is at another level as a prospect, similar to Joe Mauer and Byron Buxton. Outside of the injury, there has been little to move his prospect ranking, so Twins Daily (and other national outlets) will continue to rank him as the team’s top prospect. 

Brooks Lee, IF
Level: Triple-A
Like Jenkins, Lee’s 2024 season has been stalled by an injury, but the two players started their rehab assignments together. He suffered a back injury toward the end of spring training that ended up being a herniated disc. Lee likely would have made his MLB debut with injuries at the big-league level this season. Last year, he hit .275/.347/.461 (.808) with 39 doubles and 16 home runs in 125 games between Double- and Triple-A. His OPS dropped 110 points after being promoted to the Saints, but he was over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the International League. Lee is the closest player to making a big-league impact, so there is less variance in his potential outcomes.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Level: Double-A
Rodriguez is one of the organization’s most exciting prospects, and his hot start at Double-A will be hard for evaluators to ignore. In 32 games, he is slashing .262/.463/.561 (1.023) with 18 extra-base hits. He’s the third youngest position player in the Texas League and has yet to face a pitcher younger than himself. Rodriguez continues to walk at an extremely high rate (26.5 BB%), but his strikeout rate is also very high at 28.6%. There is some concern with his passivity at the plate, especially as he gets closer to the big leagues. He must balance being patient and attacking pitchers when he gets his pitch. Rodriguez has also shown the ability to stick in center field while being a threat on the bases, with nine steals in 11 attempts. His ceiling is extremely high and might be the highest of any Twins prospect.  

When evaluating prospects, looking into a player’s ceiling and floor is essential. For this trio, their ranking by highest ceiling would be 1. Jenkins, 2. Rodriguez, and 3. Lee. For the highest floor, it’s the exact opposite rankings. Jenkins can potentially be a future superstar, but there are no guarantees he will make it to the big-league level. Lee will most assuredly make his big-league debut, but his overall skillset is limited compared to the other two. Rodriguez has shown five-tool talent even when being pushed to the upper levels of the minors at a young age. 

Here’s how I ranked the team’s top three prospects entering June:

1. Jenkins
2. Rodriguez
3. Lee

How would you rank the Twins' top three prospects? Should Rodriguez be ranked ahead of Lee? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

View full article

[Patzky]

Twins need a sure thing right now because they have a few missing parts. I'm excited for Lee to bring a Polanco (Arraez?) like skill set to complement the Mirandas Buxtons and Santanas.

 

This Keaschall guy though will be pushing your conversation soon..

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Zebby, Zebby, Zebby !

[Doctor Wu]

Considering that Jenkins and Lee JUST came off the IL and are playing again I would say that it's much too early to start reevaluating where they are in the rankings. Let's check back in another 2 or 3 months and maybe that will be worth discussing. 

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Twins need a sure thing right now because they have a few missing parts. I'm excited for Lee to bring a Polanco (Arraez?) like skill set to complement the Mirandas Buxtons and Santanas.

 

This Keaschall guy though will be pushing your conversation soon..

I think the Polanco comparison is more apt than Arraez, because Lee has not put up high batting averages in the minor leagues. Granted, he's been younger than the league at AA and AAA, but his type of hitting (with more power ala Polanco) doesn't really align with Arraez. Plus he's a switch hitter like Polanco.

[Doctor Gast]

Timely article Cody, I was thinking the same thing. Emma has risen in the national polls. He has answered the question marks of can he stick in CF & can he hit high Milb? He has shown that he do all that & then some. These guys are very close. I agree, when you look at ceiling I'd rank Jenkins, Emma & Lee. Floor it'd be Lee, Emma & Jenkins, Lee & Emma have very little to prove now while Jenkins still have a lot to prove. IMO the early prolonged injuries to Lee & Jenkins has taken some shine from them. I maybe alone in my rankings but I'd place them Emma, Jenkins, Lee.

 

[danielp19653]

I'd probably still lean towards Lee over E-rod mainly because of the k rate, its not awful but I don't see him walking at a 25%-30% clip once he's in the MLB, does that result in more contact and the k rate hanging in the high 20s which is manageable given his power. Or does it start to climb into the mid 30s as better pitcher are able to target the holes in his swing that seem to be there with more accuracy. Jenkins for me is still the number 1 until something dramatic happens to convince me he's not going to figure it out.

[mikelink45]

No ranking - just excited to see three great prospects.  But I feel bad that Lee and Jenkins got the Twins injury bug this year.

[Dman]

I'm still concerned with Rodriguez's contact rate.  It's not as good as Lee and likely Jenkins.  As mentioned above as he deals with elite pitching at the MLB level those walks will start to disappear or at least come down quite a ways.  Like Jullien it feels like there are holes in his swing and they will find those spots in MLB.  

That being said I love Rodriguez's plate discipline, power, and clutch hitting.  He seems solid defensively though I don't see him as an elite center fielder.  Despite all the great things he is doing I still have the top three as Jenkins, Lee and E-Rod.  He can feel free to prove me wrong when he gets to the Majors this year.

[LambchoP]

I think ERod needs to be tested at AAA and Jenkins and Lee just both need at bats to catch back up after missing so much of the season. Let's see where we're at at the trade deadline.

[chpettit19]

Jenkins injury doesn't concern me at all and he's still #1 by a significant margin on my list. He looks like a natural and I expect him to reach AA this year and be ready to debut at some point next year. 

A herniated disk is no joke, and not a typical injury for a pro athlete. That does give me some worry about Lee. I've never seen him as a star, so the injury doesn't change his ceiling for me. I'd agree he has the higher floor than Emma, but a lower ceiling. He'd probably be #3 on my list now because I prefer ceiling to floor. You don't win championships with floor, you need ceiling.

Emma's floor is still AAAA player who doesn't make enough contact to be an MLB player. His extreme patience (at least bordering on passivity) at the plate makes it really hard to predict what he'll be because he likely won't be tested the way he needs to be until he gets to the majors. I don't tend to rank prospects with lots of swing and miss super highly. The guys in the majors are really, really good at finding holes and exploiting them so if you're swinging and missing a ton in AA it's not likely you're going to suddenly become a great contact guy in the bigs. And he's not going to walk at a 25% clip in the majors if he's swinging and missing so much. He'd probably be my #2 prospect right now because if he does make contact well in the majors he's going to be a star. But there's a massive gap between Jenkins and him, for me.

1. Jenkins

 

 

 

2. Emma
3. Lee

[jorgenswest]

What is the obsession with rankings? How does it matter? There must be a ranking article of some sort weekly. Wouldn’t it be better to have an article about Rodriguez and his assets that stands alone. The following discussion would be about the readiness of his major league glove in centerfield and whether he might be able to stay in centerfield. Does he need to be more aggressive at the plate before he arrives? Are there certain pitches where he struggles? Will he be an asset on the basepaths? 

All these players are worthy of their own discussion.

[MinnInPa]

it amazes me when you see writing about a kid tearing up AA ball and he's hitting/slashing only .262.. that does not and will not translate into an MLB star..just another average MLB player that strikes out 30% of the time. Hoping he proves me wrong

[Elliot]

I am getting older and my memory isn’t what it once was, but I recall the early assessments of Polanco as a young prospect being

“defensively he is ready for MLB right now. The question is whether he will be able to hit. “

Now as he turns 30 the view has flipped. A good hitter who is moving to the right (SS to 2B to 1B to DH). Still a good hitter but with questionable defensive value. 
As young prospects develop their bodies and minds go in unpredictable directions. Sano and Miranda were both drafted as SS’s, although never with the MLB ready defense assessment. As a few folks have mentioned, just give them time. If they avoid their bodies breaking down (Buxton, Kubel) or their heads getting in the way (Sano, Oswaldo Arcia) all 3 have bright futures. 

[Doctor Gast]

There are trade ideas floating around & Emma is in a few of them. Personally, I wouldn't trade any of them. If there was an absolute elite SP for sale, the only one I'd consider is Jenkins, Because all we see in Jenkins is upside & value is based on that, his floor is unknown. Again I wouldn't want to trade any of  them unless we were given an offer we can't refuse.

[saviking]

So strikeouts and walks Rodreguez take up 54.1 % of his plate appearances. .262 hits make it 80.3% of total plate appearances he can not hit into a double play, leaving 19.7%. Out of those, I would imagine half, 10%, he will not be hitting with men on first, so now he has a 9.7$ chance to hit into a double play. A certain number of those will be fly balls, leaving %% opportunities he will hit a ground ball with men in position for a ground ball and possible double play. 

Then add in his speed, and Rodreguez will not likely hit into many innings-ending double plays. Okay, I was bored this moring .. 

[tony&rodney]

Jenkins had some leg problems in high school but I'm not concerned about injuries with him at this time. He still is looking like a quick riser (very athletic with skills) and hopefully he can get to Cedar Rapids at least. I'm hoping I can tune in (milb.com) to him this weekend if the Twins let him play for Ft. Myers.

Brooks Lee just needs to be healthy and he should make his way onto the roster by August. Back problems are always troublesome but athletes work hard to strengthen their bodies in ways to mitigate injuries. Whereas Jenkins or Rodriguez may be stars if they progress, Lee is more likely a regular who has great value.

Emmanuel needs a push to AAA, where he will see pitchers throw all kinds of junk his way. He will need to make some adjustments at AAA, but will benefit from the ABS/ Challenge System. If you watched 25-50 of EmRod's at bats you will see some patterns. In AA, the pitchers are rarely throwing pitches over the plate to him. He probably leads all of baseball in strikes called on pitches out of the zone. He is a little stiff and has some trouble with pitches just off the plate away which result in swings and misses. In AAA, these will be called balls. Emmanuel does need to make better decisions on pitches early in counts where a pitcher occasionally challenges him. This is often where he is passive. He also still takes out of control swings at time but much less than last year. There is still work to do for the 21 year old but I believe you will see prospect writers begin to push him higher on lists because Rodriguez has made some improvements in his game from last season. As of right now, AA is below his level. He needs a new challenge.

[TopGunn#22]

It's tough to judge when 2 out of the 3 have been injured for the entire season so far.  However, Jenkins is still clearly the #1 guy.  The realistic expectation of him, once he gets on the field, is that he will continue to rake and continue to impress all the way to finishing this season in AA.

Lee's herniated disc worries me, but if Julien continues to struggle and certainly if Farmer continues to disappoint, Lee will be with the Twins within a month and he'll stick.

The only guy actually playing in this comparison is E-Rod. Please stop with "Emma" guys.  You write that and the image I get is of Gwyneth Paltrow, NOT Emmanuel Rodriguez!!  I don't yearn to see Gwyneth roaming in CF and crushing tape measure HR's.  (if there is a sarcasm font, I couldn't find it).

In all seriousness, it's probably time to promote E-Rod to St. Paul and see how it goes.  He and Kiersey can split time in CF and the corners to prepare either, or both, for an eventual call-up.   

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What is the obsession with rankings? How does it matter? There must be a ranking article of some sort weekly. Wouldn’t it be better to have an article about Rodriguez and his assets that stands alone. The following discussion would be about the readiness of his major league glove in centerfield and whether he might be able to stay in centerfield. Does he need to be more aggressive at the plate before he arrives? Are there certain pitches where he struggles? Will he be an asset on the basepaths? 

All these players are worthy of their own discussion.

The obsession is this is a competitive game. The best and highest ranked players get more playing time. They get more fanfare. They get more compensation. They get more opportunities to succeed if they initially fail.

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The obsession is this is a competitive game. The best and highest ranked players get more playing time. They get more fanfare. They get more compensation. They get more opportunities to succeed if they initially fail.

Do you think organizations spend time and resources ranking their players? If the rankings were of any value at all they would be pretty stable. If they change as much as the recent TD top prospects after less than two months of play then they had little value to begin with. 

[FlyingFinn]

Many were saying, "wait until Emma Rodriguez gets to AA, that's where the holes in swing will show." Now, it's changed to, "wait until he gets to AAA or MLB, that's where his swing and misses will not work." Emma has speed, power, knows the strike zone, plays great defense (maybe not elite in CF??). I'm very excited about him. He's rated #10 in all of baseball prospects!! Love Lee and Jenkins as well. Moved Emma to #2 just because Lee had this back injury.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Do you think organizations spend time and resources ranking their players? If the rankings were of any value at all they would be pretty stable. If they change as much as the recent TD top prospects after less than two months of play then they had little value to begin with. 

...you think they don't?

They absolutely, 100%, guaranteed rank their players one way or the other. A player's trade value depends greatly on their rankings. They may not rank them in order of 1-20 or whatever, but they definitely rank them because MiLB prospects are liquid  team assets, plain and simple.

[twinstalker]

6 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Many were saying, "wait until Emma Rodriguez gets to AA, that's where the holes in swing will show." Now, it's changed to, "wait until he gets to AAA or MLB, that's where his swing and misses will not work." Emma has speed, power, knows the strike zone, plays great defense (maybe not elite in CF??). I'm very excited about him. He's rated #10 in all of baseball prospects!! Love Lee and Jenkins as well. Moved Emma to #2 just because Lee had this back injury.

If he's a good player in MLB, we'll be lucky.  Not saying he couldn't be, but data don't lie.  His profile doesn't work well in the majors.  I mean, who's going to walk him?  He's interesting enough to get a little excited about, but I'd temper expectations.  They're going to strike him out A LOT.

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

...you think they don't?

They absolutely, 100%, guaranteed rank their players one way or the other. A player's trade value depends greatly on their rankings. They may not rank them in order of 1-20 or whatever, but they definitely rank them because MiLB prospects are liquid  team assets, plain and simple.

It is the ordering that prompted my original comment. 

[Linus]

23 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What is the obsession with rankings? How does it matter? There must be a ranking article of some sort weekly. Wouldn’t it be better to have an article about Rodriguez and his assets that stands alone. The following discussion would be about the readiness of his major league glove in centerfield and whether he might be able to stay in centerfield. Does he need to be more aggressive at the plate before he arrives? Are there certain pitches where he struggles? Will he be an asset on the basepaths? 

All these players are worthy of their own discussion.

I like this idea. An in depth dive into a prospect would be interesting and more useful than subjective rankings. 

[tony&rodney]

14 hours ago, twinstalker said:

If he's a good player in MLB, we'll be lucky.  Not saying he couldn't be, but data don't lie.  His profile doesn't work well in the majors.  I mean, who's going to walk him?  He's interesting enough to get a little excited about, but I'd temper expectations.  They're going to strike him out A LOT.

Kyle Schwarber? He doesn't even run the bases or field and the Phillies are unlikely to DFA him. Julio Rodriguez?

There are players who strike out in MLB. I am not a fan of Ks but the game has evolved. Unless umpires noticeably change the zone for a rookie, anyone with a good eye can draw walks. Joey Gallo should be playing in a Men's League but teams keep offering him millions so he suits up. He has more walks than hits (16W/12H) with 54 Ks and a .122 BA (which apparently is not important) in 117 PA. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez is physically prepared to play every day in MLB. He still has a season of work to do in the minor leagues on cleaning up the mental part of the game. EmRod has improved since last year. Most notable is that he is less prone to taking crazy wild out of control swings and he has become better at not giving away at bats. If umpires call the strike zone reasonably, EmRod will be just fine when his time comes.