Reviewing the Incredibly Early Returns in the Jorge Polanco Trade

[Cody Christie]

Jorge Polanco was the longest-tenured Twins when the club traded him this winter. How have the traded players performed thus far in the season's early weeks?

Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Gabriel Gonzalez)

Jorge Polanco went through many ups and downs during his Twins tenure, which likely made it challenging for the front office to trade a clubhouse favorite. However, the ownership group forced a $30 million payroll cut, and casualties are associated with that kind of drop. Minnesota needed room to make other moves, and there were younger and cheaper options behind Polanco at second base. The Twins traded him to Seattle for four players, including Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Topa, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Darren Bowen. At this early juncture, the results have been mixed for both teams. 

Seattle’s Trade Return
Polanco’s start with the Mariners has been far below his career average. In 26 games, he has hit .163/.321/.267 (.588) with a 29.1 K% and a 17.5 BB%. His 79 OPS+ is 32 points below his career mark. His defense at second base has also taken a hit with a -2 OAA (Outs Above Average) and a -1 Fielding Run Value. Only seven qualified second basemen have a lower fWAR than Polanco. Early in his career, Polanco never missed time due to injury, but the Twins might have been ready to move on from Polanco because of his injury concerns over the last two seasons. He’s also entering his 30s this season so Father Time might be catching up to him. 

Minnesota’s Trade Return
Gabriel Gonzalez was the top piece acquired by the Twins, with MLB.com ranking him as baseball’s 79th-best prospect entering the season. Last season, he split time between Low-A and High-A where he hit a combined .298/.361/.476 (.837) with 23 doubles, four triples, and 18 home runs. Defensively, Gonzalez made most of his appearances in right field, with a handful of innings in left field. The Twins sent him back to High-A to begin the 2024 campaign, and his bat may be starting to warm up in the Midwest League. In his first eight games, he went 6-for-33 (.182 BA) with one extra-base hit. Over his last eight games, Gonzalez went 10-for-28 (.357 BA) with six doubles, one home run, and two stolen bases. Minnesota will continue to be patient with Gonzalez, but the early signs are heading in the right direction. 

Justin Topa will be the most useful piece to the 2024 Twins, but he has yet to appear with the club during the regular season. He started the season on the injured list due to left knee tendinitis. Earlier this week, he threw live batting practice and joined the Saints for a rehab assignment on Thursday. Last season, he made 75 appearances for Seattle with a 2.61 ERA and a 61-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings. The Mariners used him as a high-leverage arm last season, so the Twins will be able to ease him back into the bullpen mix because of the other relief options. 

Minnesota expected Anthony DeSclafani to begin the year as the team’s number-five starter. However, he will miss the entire 2024 season and some of the 2025 season after undergoing a flexor tendon surgery. Some fans blamed the Twins for acquiring another injured pitcher, but it shouldn’t be lumped in with those acquisitions because Minnesota had to take him on to make the trade work. There has been an apparent lack of depth in the Twins’ rotation this season, with Louie Varland struggling and the team turning his spot over to Simeon Woods Richardson. 

Seattle drafted Darren Bowen in the 13th round of the 2022 MLB Draft from the University of North Carolina at Pembroke. After signing last season, he pitched 55 2/3 innings and posted a 3.88 ERA with a 59-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota moved him from Low-A to High-A to begin the 2024 season, and a poor first appearance skews his numbers. He allowed five earned runs in his first start and didn’t make it out of the third inning. In his second start, he pitched five innings and allowed two earned runs on two hits with five strikeouts. The Twins will continue working with Bowen to see if he can develop into a big-league starter. (He joined Seth on Twins Spotlight days after the trade was completed.)

The Mariners have a $12 million option on Polanco for next season, so there is potential for him to provide value in 2025. However, it seems unlikely that option will be picked up with his early-season performance. The Twins will start gaining value on their side of the trade ledger with Topa set to join the bullpen, and Gonzalez and Bowen have the potential to provide future value. 

Did the Twins win this trade? What are your views of the trade's early returns? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[USAFChief]

No matter how many times you try to sell this "ignore Desclafani" line, I'm still not buying. 

 

The Twins primary return on Polanco was Desclafani.

 

 

 

[Schmoeman5]

17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

No matter how many times you try to sell this "ignore Desclafani" line, I'm still not buying. 

 

The Twins primary return on Polanco was Desclafani.

 

 

 

DeSclafani was the rotten meat festering below the top 3 steaks that looked OK until you dug a little. Polanco can have the worst season of his career. Topa the morning can be lights out. It's still a bad deal. Varland is not a viable option and the jury is out on Paddack.  DeSclafani was supposed to help the starting rotation. That's not happening. Now or ever.

[old nurse]

I am so glad through these trade discussions that here are so many people on the inside that absolutely know what the Twins were thinking. Perhaps one of you could come back with the analysis of how he fits the wins model of pitching acquisitions 

[HerbieFan]

1000% no chance that DeSclafini was the main piece.  He was a salary throw in.  Gonzalez and Topa were piece #1 and #2.  I hated to see Polo go, but thought this was a really good get for a declining 2B.  If Bowen ever contributes as a starter or as a reliever, so much the better.

[roger]

No problem in my mind.  Would have liked less prospects and a better, younger starting pitcher.

Must take exception to how you worded the $30M payroll cut.  Isn’t it more accurate that many circumstances were the cause, mainly the unknown tv contract.  Isn’t it also possible, or even likely that last year’s payroll was over budget because of the Correa situation?

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, roger said:

Would have liked less prospects and a better, younger starting pitcher.

Pretty much everyone wants that in a trade. Polanco wasn't worth that. Based just on his April production he wasn't worth the return the Twins received. He's at 106 plate appearances and Polanco has produced like a waiver wire acquisition while getting paid a pretty good salary.

[harmony55]

Jorge Polanco should rebound from the .208 BABIP that has contributed to his disappointing start to date.

The Mariners have not missed Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani even though injuries have kept Matt Brash, Gregory Santos and Bryan Woo off the mound this season.

An optimal trade benefits each team. The Polanco trade may accomplish that.

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco filled a big hole in SEA roster. The only useable piece we got was Topa RP a position that's not a high priority & where there is an overabundance. Polanco was as often stated on TV as the heart & soul of the team, a great clubhouse guy, a clutch hitter whose bat can play every day. Twins is the only team he's played for in his long career. I'm sure he didn't want to be traded and that being traded was like a gut punch. Understandably, he's having a slow start which is unfair to compare now. But there's no doubt that Polanco will turn it on & help SEA advance in the postseason. That is the time to revisit the trade & see how much we gave up. 

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, roger said:

No problem in my mind.  Would have liked less prospects and a better, younger starting pitcher.

Must take exception to how you worded the $30M payroll cut.  Isn’t it more accurate that many circumstances were the cause, mainly the unknown tv contract.  Isn’t it also possible, or even likely that last year’s payroll was over budget because of the Correa situation?

During the offseason some fans thought 24-year-old Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock would be an insufficient return in a trade of Jorge Polanco.

With righthander Bryan Woo on the injured list, Hancock has stepped into the Mariner rotation with an ERA of 5.06 in five starts, including a start of eight earned runs over 3.1 innings. In his last three outings Hancock has posted three quality starts with an ERA of 2.00, 12 strikeouts and only three walks over 18 innings. Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft, would have come with six years of team control in a trade last offseason.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

There's no doubt that Polanco will turn it on & help SEA advance in the postseason.

Seattle had better hope so because at this moment the Twins win the trade if it is just Polanco for DeSclafani.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

No matter how many times you try to sell this "ignore Desclafani" line, I'm still not buying. 

The Twins primary return on Polanco was Desclafani.

No general manager in baseball would have traded Gabby Gonzalez straight up for DeSclafani. Gonzalez was clearly the best piece in the trade.

[harmony55]

44 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Seattle had better hope so because at this moment the Twins win the trade if it is just Polanco for DeSclafani.

It's early.

Drawing ill-advised conclusions from the early small samples, Seattle probably doesn't need Jorge Polanco given the current wRC+ of 168 and 137 from Mariner 2B/3B Josh Rojas and Luis Urias.

The Twins probably need a starting pitcher more than the Mariners need an infielder.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Drawing ill-advised conclusions from the early small samples,

Polanco has 106 plate appearances. That's 20% of a season for him.

[harmony55]

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Polanco has 106 plate appearances. That's 20% of a season for him.

Exactly.

FWIW only twice in his career has Jorge Polanco posted a March/April wRC+ above his current 87:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-polanco/13152/splits?season=0&position=2B/SS&split=2.1#Advanced

[NotAboutWinning]

I can't decide if the FO is so inept as to believe DeSclafani could actually be the 5th starter... Or if he was just a strawman they could put up to convince the fanbase they had built a 5 pitcher rotation.

[Road trip]

Polanco was one of my favorite players the past few years, but at this point it seems clear that the Twins needed to make room for Julien.

Julien OPS: .854

Polanco OPS: .588    

Julien was the better hitter last year too.  I wish we had gotten more for Polanco, but the Twins are better off just by opening up 2nd base for Julien, even without considering the large salary savings.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Polanco filled a big hole in SEA roster. The only useable piece we got was Topa RP a position that's not a high priority & where there is an overabundance. Polanco was as often stated on TV as the heart & soul of the team, a great clubhouse guy, a clutch hitter whose bat can play every day. Twins is the only team he's played for in his long career. I'm sure he didn't want to be traded and that being traded was like a gut punch. Understandably, he's having a slow start which is unfair to compare now. But there's no doubt that Polanco will turn it on & help SEA advance in the postseason. That is the time to revisit the trade & see how much we gave up. 

Some of the least objective baseball analysis I've ever read.

How's your guy Noah Miller doing, btw? Do you think you're ever going to retract your statements on Gabriel Gonzales or Rayne Doncon? 

[EPEZRider]

Polanco's injuries the past few years indicate he's breaking down and already on the downside of a nice career. It was best to move on and get something in return.

 

[Schmoeman5]

25 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Some of the least objective baseball analysis I've ever read.

How's your guy Noah Miller doing, btw? Do you think you're ever going to retract your statements on Gabriel Gonzales or Rayne Doncon? 

Twins are 1 injury to Ober, Ryan, or Lopez to a throwaway season because of lack of depth at starting pitching. Your talking about Doncon and Gonzales as if they're ready to step in and contribute. That's your objective baseball analysis? CCHOF 😃 What part of that trade helps the Twins right now?

[wabene]

1 hour ago, harmony55 said:

Exactly.

FWIW only twice in his career has Jorge Polanco posted a March/April wRC+ above his current 87:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-polanco/13152/splits?season=0&position=2B/SS&split=2.1#Advanced

 

43 minutes ago, EPEZRider said:

Polanco's injuries the past few years indicate he's breaking down and already on the downside of a nice career. It was best to move on and get something in return.

 

Is it possible both of these things are true? Polo is a fav for me and I think he will heat up this year. He was always a welcome addition to the lineup when healthy and when he got his righty swing dialed in, dangerous. All that being said I'm in the camp that it was time to move on.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

36 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Twins are 1 injury to Ober, Ryan, or Lopez to a throwaway season because of lack of depth at starting pitching. Your talking about Doncon and Gonzales as if they're ready to step in and contribute. That's your objective baseball analysis? CCHOF 😃 What part of that trade helps the Twins right now?

I'd ask you about your reading skills and your ability to do something other than strawman, but that really seemed to get you into a bad headspace last time you tried this.

[Schmoeman5]

16 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I'd ask you about your reading skills and your ability to do something other than strawman, but that really seemed to get you into a bad headspace last time you tried this.

Reading skills? I think you want to say comprehension. And if it's a strawman argument it should be easy to defeat.

[bighat]

While DeSclafini wasn't the core piece of this trade, pretending all of a sudden that the Twins were going to throw him in the trash all along is being dishonest. While most were disappointed with that get, everyone had their fingers crossed that the guy would eat some innings for this team, who is thin at starting pitching. 

That aside, I'm shocked Polanco is doing so poorly thusfar. Mariners fans probably aren't too thrilled. He will likely heat up though, I won't count him out yet. 

Sure will be nice to see Topa one of these days. 

[mikelink45]

Check back at the all-star break.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

What part of that trade helps the Twins right now?

Topa, but it wasn't a win-now move. They didn't make any win-now moves this offseason.

[Linus]

The DeSclafani part of the trade has been widely discussed. I don’t buy the “he was just a throw in” argument. The FO needed to add starting pitching and DeSclafani was the only starter added. So regardless of the circumstances of the trade it was a major fail for 2024 on the part of the FO. 

[Brandon]

The Twins also saved 5.25 million in payroll and immediately signed Carlos Santana to play 1B.  I imagine that should factor into the return as well.  I wonder if this deal was pre arranged before the trade and we can either say he was indirectly a part of the trade return as his salary definitely is.  And Santana bat is starting to heat up after a slow start.  

[Joe A. Preusser]

7 hours ago, Linus said:

The DeSclafani part of the trade has been widely discussed. I don’t buy the “he was just a throw in” argument. The FO needed to add starting pitching and DeSclafani was the only starter added. So regardless of the circumstances of the trade it was a major fail for 2024 on the part of the FO. 

I don't think he was a "throw in" at all.  He was part of the trade equation that helped balance the other parts.  The Twins looked at the whole equation and decided it balanced well enough to make the trade.  Then, they hoped that piece (Descelafani) could contribute at the back end of the rotation.  In that hope, they were unfortunately disappointed.  

This isn't rocket science, it's negotiation 101.  Anyone claiming ulterior or ancillary motives are just confirming their own biases.  

For multiple reasons, I am happy with the trade return.   Polanco's bat should be just fine, but it was entirely reasonable to move on.  

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Polanco filled a big hole in SEA roster. The only useable piece we got was Topa RP a position that's not a high priority & where there is an overabundance. Polanco was as often stated on TV as the heart & soul of the team, a great clubhouse guy, a clutch hitter whose bat can play every day. Twins is the only team he's played for in his long career. I'm sure he didn't want to be traded and that being traded was like a gut punch. Understandably, he's having a slow start which is unfair to compare now. But there's no doubt that Polanco will turn it on & help SEA advance in the postseason. That is the time to revisit the trade & see how much we gave up. 

If would appear you define value as "useable" this season.  There is no arguing that Topa is the only piece of that trade which will provide value this season.  However, if you define value in terms of building a contending team, trading for prospects has contributed over 30% of WAR on average to 92+ win teams for teams in the bottom 17 of revenue since 2000.  Trading for proven players has contributed 11% of WAR.  These percentages use a very liberal definition of proven player where the player has had 1 season with 1.5 WAR.  If you use a measure more reflective of a "proven player", those percentages would be closer to 34% for prospects and 7% for players that have produced 2+ WAR in a season.  This type of trade has very clearly been far more influential to building contenders than trading for established players.