Did Edouard Julien Sell Out Too Much for Power?

[Ted Schwerzler]

A year ago, the Minnesota Twins watched a new second baseman emerge, and it was because of Edouard Julien’s presence that they felt free to move Jorge Polanco. He has been anything but the same player to start the season. Why?

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins had multiple reasons for trading Jorge Polanco. They needed to clear payroll somewhere, and his contract had positive market value. Just as importantly, though, Edouard Julien's emergence in 2023 pushed Polanco out.

Not unlike many of his teammates this season, Julien has endured a failure to launch. As Matthew Trueblood touched on, he became overwhelmingly passive at the dish out of the gate. Allowing the opposition to dictate at-bats is never going to be a fruitful strategy, and for a leadoff hitter expected to set the table, it left the lineup's would-be run producers starving.

Beyond just a patient approach though, Julien has leaned into a power approach. That’s not exactly surprising, given the Twins' desire to send baseballs over the fence at any opportunity, but it gets away from a lot of the things that he does well. A season ago, Julien hit 16 home runs in 408 plate appearances. He’s currently on pace to add about seven more round-trippers to that total in 2024, but that increase has come as part of a stretching toward two offensive extremes.

On the positive side, Julien’s ISO is up 15 points from 2023. He’s leaned into a higher launch angle and has slightly increased his barrel rate. His hard-hit rate has also gone up, and he’s putting more balls in the air. In and of themselves, each of those things are positive. Combining them with a few other realities currently at play, the downside shows up.

Last season, Julien dominated at-bats by controlling the zone and generating walks. His 15.7% walk rate has dipped to 11.8% this season, and his 34.2% strikeout rate has expanded the gap between good and bad outcomes. There’s also the type of contact he is generating with the trajectory of his bat through the zone.

While it is a positive that he’s striking the ball harder, it’s not to such an extent that the jump in fly ball rate is a good thing. Julien has never truly crafted himself as a power hitter, and putting the ball in the air is beneficial mainly if it’s a line drive or if it goes over the fence. Not enough of his batted balls leave the yard, and those that do aren’t often of the majestic type. Adding 18% to his fly ball rate would be fine if it came from the amount of time he put the ball on the ground, but he’s lost over 10% of his line drive production.

Not every player needs to find 25-home run power, and when they do, it often drastically changes how they go about competing on a per-plate appearance basis. What Julien was doing in 2023 would consistently result in getting on base, and occasionally running into a pitch for extra bases. The value in that profile is immense--especially so at the top of a lineup. Julien living for barrels has had him swinging out of his shoes, and showing expected results that are even worse than the actual outcomes.

When Byron Buxton hit 28 home runs during the 2022 season, it was all but over for him in transforming into a power hitter. He was never again likely to be a guy who drew walks (though, unlike Julien, he never really was one), and selling out for slugging had become his game. That is a bit more workable from a middle-of-the-order profile, but not what Julien should be looking to emulate.

Minnesota ultimately replaced Luis Arráez at second base with a player who could be an equally effective, but different, type of hitter. That only happens if Julien gets back to something of the approach he showed last season. While needing to make second-year adjustments is sensible, it’s more about reacting to the opposition's changes than it is altering your process at the plate.

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[PDX Twin]

Couldn't agree more! He's stifling his elite talent in an attempt to be just like everyone else on the team.

[4twinsJA]

Whatever he was sent off to work on in offseason has not worked, much like the rest of team and most of minor league system. Almost all off to slow starts this year.

[D.C Twins]

Yes... they tried to do the same thing to Martin

[chpettit19]

I'm confused here. I don't see a change in approach at all. Julien swung out of his shoes last year, too. Well, helmet (I've never seen someone lose their helmet on a swing so often). I don't see any change in his approach at all. He hit a HR every 25 PAs last year. He's at about 1 every 20 this year. That isn't some massive change and can easily be explained by a 2 HR game in a small sample size. If he had 3 HRs right now instead of 4 he'd be at nearly the exact same PA/HR rate as last year (25.5 last year, 25.3 if he were at 3 HRs right now).

You say not every hitter needs to have 25 HR power, but over a full season Julien was at 25 HR power last year. If he played 150 games he'd get around 650 PAs in the year. At his 25.5 PA/HR rate last year he'd hit 25.5 HRs in 650 PAs. 

Julien is struggling. Nearly the entire offense is struggling. But I don't see any change in his approach. Small sample size noise? Sure. But he's 1 HR off his pace from last year. Which you claim was a good approach while also saying he doesn't need to be a 25 HR guy even though he was a 25 HR guy. Really confused by this stance.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO the league has easily zoned into the team-wide hitting philosophy. Those who bought into it have really suffered those who have not are having better results.  

[bean5302]

52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm confused here. I don't see a change in approach at all. Julien swung out of his shoes last year, too. Well, helmet (I've never seen someone lose their helmet on a swing so often). I don't see any change in his approach at all. He hit a HR every 25 PAs last year. He's at about 1 every 20 this year. That isn't some massive change and can easily be explained by a 2 HR game in a small sample size. If he had 3 HRs right now instead of 4 he'd be at nearly the exact same PA/HR rate as last year (25.5 last year, 25.3 if he were at 3 HRs right now).

You say not every hitter needs to have 25 HR power, but over a full season Julien was at 25 HR power last year. If he played 150 games he'd get around 650 PAs in the year. At his 25.5 PA/HR rate last year he'd hit 25.5 HRs in 650 PAs. 

Julien is struggling. Nearly the entire offense is struggling. But I don't see any change in his approach. Small sample size noise? Sure. But he's 1 HR off his pace from last year. Which you claim was a good approach while also saying he doesn't need to be a 25 HR guy even though he was a 25 HR guy. Really confused by this stance.

Agreed. Julien's approach feels about the same, and we're definitely dealing with a SSS given how infrequently Julien makes contact with pitches. His FB rate is double last year at the cost of a big drop off in line drive rate, but I think it's just SSS at only 41 batted balls in play.

Personally, I don't think Julien is cut out to be an elite hitter based on his weaknesses, but he can be good.

[mnfireman]

Well, his stats are right in line with the guy they traded (Polanco)....

[old nurse]

41 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Well, his stats are right in line with the guy they traded (Polanco)....

SUMMARY

2024 AB 75 H 13 HR 3 BA .173 OBP.319 SLG .293 OPS .612 OPS+ 86

Polanco’s numbers this year would fir right in with the rest of the Twins 

[twinzcynic]

Unfortunately this seems to be a bit of an organizational-wide issue. The headline could easily be "Did the Twins Sell Out Too Much for Power?"

[Parfigliano]

17 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

Unfortunately this seems to be a bit of an organizational-wide issue. The headline could easily be "Did the Twins Sell Out Too Much for Power?"

Yes

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

Unfortunately this seems to be a bit of an organizational-wide issue. The headline could easily be "Did the Twins Sell Out Too Much for Power?"

An odd thing is Julien and Santana both tore apart ST pitching, now the team sucked in ST but how can two guys suddenly fall apart.

At that Farmer had his worst ST ever and it shows.

This is a TEAM collapse.

What ever coaches are telling them is a self-destructive ideology as this team started lousy and has gotten worse.

[Heiny]

Julien:  tied with Castro for team league in strike outs,  .179 BA?  Is this what got him to the bigs?  I think we have a team wide problem.  Getting on base is a problem.  Scoring runners from scoring position with less than two outs is a problem.  3/5ths of a starting rotation is a problem.  I guess 4th place in the division is about where we belong.  It would be 5th place if the White Sox weren't even more horrible than we are.  My pre-season optimism is about gone.  How bout a managerial change, a batting coach change and an organizational approach change.  Definately time for some kind of change.  Twins games have been downright boring.

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Agreed. Julien's approach feels about the same, and we're definitely dealing with a SSS given how infrequently Julien makes contact with pitches. His FB rate is double last year at the cost of a big drop off in line drive rate, but I think it's just SSS at only 41 batted balls in play.

Personally, I don't think Julien is cut out to be an elite hitter based on his weaknesses, but he can be good.

FB rate up because chasing the sacred 'launch angle?'

[thelanges5]

Heard on Gleeman and the Geek that the Twins are seeing the fewest fast balls in MLB. The league has adjusted to them being one of the top FB hitting teams. 

They need to adjust to the off speed garbage they are seeing.

[mrtwinsfan]

3-hitting coaches, -Then staring at the previous strikeout on a Tablet, Ya think it might be a case of Over thinking , M.L.B Should of never let Tablets into the Dugout during games, 

[Linus]

As I’ve posted several times before TK had it right in that you need 1000 to 1500 at bats before you really know what you have in a hitter. He has one good half season with a 371 babip. The book is out on the guy as pitchers are going right after him which is why his walk rate is down and SO rate is up. Unless and until he makes an adjustment back it ain’t gonna be pretty. 

[USNMCPO]

Maybe time for a new hitting coach. These professional hitters are not hitting. Something has to change.

[Oldtimer]

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

Julien:  tied with Castro for team league in strike outs,  .179 BA?  Is this what got him to the bigs?  I think we have a team wide problem.  Getting on base is a problem.  Scoring runners from scoring position with less than two outs is a problem.  3/5ths of a starting rotation is a problem.  I guess 4th place in the division is about where we belong.  It would be 5th place if the White Sox weren't even more horrible than we are.  My pre-season optimism is about gone.  How bout a managerial change, a batting coach change and an organizational approach change.  Definately time for some kind of change.  Twins games have been downright boring.

Boring is right. Watching Julien taking all those called third strikes in the leadoff spot....hoping for a walk....boring +.

[Guest]

YES

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

FB rate up because chasing the sacred 'launch angle?'

Fly ball rate up, and overall numbers down, because pitchers figured out he doesn't like to swing at breaking balls, and doesn't hit breaking balls very well because of his bat angle at contact. He mashes fastballs and doesn't swing at breaking balls unless he has to. So lots of first pitch breakers he isn't swinging at which brings his first pitch swing percentage way down and has him start with too many 0-1 counts and then the pitcher is in control.

He's still mashing fastballs, he's just getting a lot more breaking stuff that he doesn't handle well. League found his weakness and have a plan for him. Time to see if he can combat their plan. He's likely not as good as he was last year, but not as bad as he is right now.

[wabene]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Fly ball rate up, and overall numbers down, because pitchers figured out he doesn't like to swing at breaking balls, and doesn't hit breaking balls very well because of his bat angle at contact. He mashes fastballs and doesn't swing at breaking balls unless he has to. So lots of first pitch breakers he isn't swinging at which brings his first pitch swing percentage way down and has him start with too many 0-1 counts and then the pitcher is in control.

He's still mashing fastballs, he's just getting a lot more breaking stuff that he doesn't handle well. League found his weakness and have a plan for him. Time to see if he can combat their plan. He's likely not as good as he was last year, but not as bad as he is right now.

Nice analysis but I'm hoping it's erroneous, lol. I'm the one calling Julien's bat special all off-season. We will see.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, wabene said:

Nice analysis but I'm hoping it's erroneous, lol. I'm the one calling Julien's bat special all off-season. We will see.

The Julien story is far from written. I don't think he's going to be "special," but I think he's going to be a very good hitter. Too much swing and miss in his game to be special, but I think he will adjust and tweak his approach as he goes and will square more balls up than he is right now. I still think he'll be an important part of this offense, but not a star. 

[Guest]

This front office and manager were handed a talented core on 2017 and this core had career years that propelled them to a 100+ win season. This FO then concluded this could be replicated year after year. What they have done is take a team that led in home runs and 25th in strikeouts. I’ll say that again 25th in strikeouts and turned it into a team that led in home runs and strikeouts in 2023. They have systematically degraded batting skills for the sake of the home run. This will not change until Falvinelli are removed. But, will the Twins improve with limitations from ownership. This is the plight of the Twins. Hopefully someone will decide that basic hitting fundamentals will be beneficial even when they are slumping.

[Platoon]

If you try and turn a high percentage line drive type hitter into a HR threat by increasing the sacred launch angle, you are likely to end up with someone who hits some magnificent fly balls…… to the outfielders. Not everyone can hit enough HR’s to make selling out his swing worth it. 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Verified Member said:

Falvinelli

I'd pursue a copyright, nice work!

[harmlessharmon]

So Papi was told stop swinging for the fences, put the ball in play more.  Now it's the opposite?  Moderation is the key.  Go with each player's strengths.  It keeps them happier, better morale, team wins more, etc etc. 

[BsuNemo]

I would say they ruined Buxton as well. He had the leg kick issues but when he fixed that he was driving the ball to the gaps. I don't remember which year it was but he was going into June with a .300+ ba  (got hurt of course) and nearly every night he had a gapper and with his speed he was scoring from second any hit to the outfield. Instead he's now a 30+ hr guy with a 35% strike out rate and an obp under .300.. and 80% of his homers are solo shots. Julien hit at every level in the minors, so did Larnach. Martin only started hitting better after he tried "their" way and went back in AFL to his own approach. I just struggle to believe that at a professional level they can't individualize each person's approach to hitting to their strengths. I do this on the high school basketball court and I've only got two hours a day with them and two other jobs! I'm ready to see a different management group with the same players and a different approach. 

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

Whatever he was sent off to work on in offseason has not worked, much like the rest of team and most of minor league system. Almost all off to slow starts this year.

He has a HR off of a lefty and he is adjusting to the league adjusting to his elite plate discipline.  He will be just fine as he matures.  He is 3/4 tonight with a K. Par for the course.

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

Whatever he was sent off to work on in offseason has not worked, much like the rest of team and most of minor league system. Almost all off to slow starts this year.

He has a HR off of a lefty and he is adjusting to the league adjusting to his elite plate discipline.  He will be just fine as he matures.  He is 3/4 tonight with a K. Par for the course.