What are the Twins Expecting from Trevor Larnach?

[Ted Schwerzler]

On Tuesday, the Minnesota Twins made the decision to send Matt Wallner back to Triple-A St. Paul. That move made way for Trevor Larnach’s return to the big leagues. Now entering what will be his fourth major-league season, there are clear expectations for the former first-round pick.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Slowed at the end of spring training by turf toe, Trevor Larnach started his season on a rehab assignment with Fort Myers. Though Larnach was expected to return to Triple-A St. Paul, the incredibly slow start for Matt Wallner opened up an opportunity. After a successful rookie campaign, Wallner scuffled through the spring schedule and started 2-for-25 with a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of those two hits, one was a home run off a position player.

Wallner’s misfortune is Larnach’s gain, but Larnach has been in very similar situations to the guy he's now replacing. Despite dealing with injuries at different points over the past three years, Larnach has never played more than 79 games at the major-league level in a single campaign. While the maladies have influenced that, it is largely due to a desire for greater production.

With 188 big-league games to his credit, Larnach has launched just 20 home runs and owns a 95 career OPS+. From someone with his build and pedigree, that leaves plenty to be desired, and it’s the power production that Minnesota sent the former Oregon State Beavers outfielder on a journey to find last season.

Racking up 212 plate appearances with the parent club last season, Larnach had just eight home runs and only seven doubles. His three triples were uncharacteristic, but again, Rocco Baldelli puts him in the lineup to drive the baseball. Exit velocities were a large part of the draft hype for Larnach, but that hasn't come to fruition consistently at the highest level.

Beyond just hitting the ball hard, a refined process has to take shape for the Twins outfielder. He has consistently posted strikeout rates above 33% during his career, and it wasn’t until last season that his walk rate crept above 12%. His 46% hard-hit rate from 2023 was nearly 10% better than anything he had previously accumulated during his career, and his fly ball rate ticked up nearly 50% as well.

The book on Larnach, for some time, has been an inability to hit breaking pitches. He crushes fastballs, but has seen pitchers all but stop throwing them to him. We saw him work something of an inside-out approach last season, with the lowest pull rate of his career, and he made a significant amount of contact going back up the middle. That will only add additional hits if he can drive the ball out of the park to the deepest part, and sacrificing pull-side power certainly could help him.

There have been multiple points throughout his career where it has looked like Larnach is starting to figure things out. Another brief heater would be great to see in the absence of Wallner and Max Kepler. Unless Larnach can be that person, the team is suddenly short on power in the corners. Minnesota has been waiting for it to take shape over the years, and now is as good a time as any.

Last season, it was Wallner replacing Larnach amid the latter's struggles to produce. Now the roles are reversed, and with health to his credit, the Twins need to see a bat that plays on a significant power scale. There are many similarities in the games of Wallner and Larnach, but one that the Twins don’t need playing out is a debilitating dearth of consistency.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

Keep throwing things against the wall, hopefully something sticks.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Ambivalent.

Glad to see Larnach's getting another shot at the Bigs, but sad to see Wallner needing to go down.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Keep throwing things against the wall, hopefully something sticks.

LOL, Twins Org. was hoping their rookies would produce the next Witt Jr.  -- but right now  -- they probably wish they had a new Billy Hamilton; he came out of the minors as one of the best fielders ever with an average bat, before he QUICKLY faded away after 6 years of the Major League.

Boys here, maybe NOT their fault,  cannot even get in one full year with out drama of some sort.

[jmlease1]

It's worth a try to see if Larnach can bring some offensive thump to a lineup that needs it. Wallner looks lost right now and with an option available it makes sense to send him to Saint Paul to try and work on some things and maybe rebuild his confidence. We'll see if Larnach can handle MLB off-speed stuff this time around.

If neither Wallner nor Larnach prove able to hold down a corner spot this season, it might be a long year...but it'll also open up opportunity for Martin and Rodriguez. There's always someone else behind looking for a chip, a chair, and a chance.

[Danchat]

This is Larnach's fourth major shot at earning a spot with the Twins and staying there. After failing to stick for the first three, I find it doubtful the fourth time is the charm but there is no harm in trying. 

[Doctor Gast]

Unfortunately, Larnach is one of the unathletic big bat, low 1st round pick whom the Twins had high expectations (so did I but I was open to trading him for the right price) & a lot of hype following him. I hope he can figure out the breaking balls & contribute to the team this season. But I'm afraid that his window has closed with all the new prospects ready to reach the MLB. It's more him increasing his trade value by adapting to the off-speed stuff.

[CRF]

Kind of surprised they sent Wallner down this soon. Sure, he had a rough ST and started the season the same way, but it's not like he's the only one on the team struggling. Options matter though, and he has some. I hope he's back soon. Meanwhile, I hope Larnach figured some things out and comes in and helps us. I guess we'll see soon enough.  

[Schmoeman5]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Unfortunately, Larnach is one of the unathletic big bat, low 1st round pick whom the Twins had high expectations (so did I but I was open to trading him for the right price) & a lot of hype following him. I hope he can figure out the breaking balls & contribute to the team this season. But I'm afraid that his window has closed with all the new prospects ready to reach the MLB. It's more him increasing his trade value by adapting to the off-speed stuff.

Hilarious volume 2

[DocBauer]

I'm still a believer in Wallner. He's hit at every level...including MLB...and he's made adjustments and improvements at each stop. But...WOOF...SOMETHING just isn't clicking for him at all this year so far. A reset definitely seems in order.

Right now, Larnach profiles to a decent half of a platoon situation in a corner OF and DH spot. And maybe that's all he's going to be. But there've been enough flashes here and there to still offer at least a little bit of hope. I'm glad for him he's healthy again and getting another shot. But he's going to have to start showing some improvement pretty soon.

[RpR]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

.... But I'm afraid that his window has closed with all the new prospects ready to reach the MLB.

Yep, all the new untried Larnachs, Wallners, Sanos, Celestinos....

[nicksaviking]

55 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Keep throwing things against the wall, hopefully something sticks.

This might be snark, but I'm all for it. Larnach struggles? Go to E-Rod, Keirsey, Williams, Prato, Helman.

You can do this with Wallner and Julien and Miranda if needed, you don't paint yourself into a corner. You can't do it with Margot and Santana; you're stuck with them.

[Blyleven2011]

It's sad to see someone demoted , but it was time wallner was sent to st Paul and get straightened out  ...

He was beginning to become a head case with no confidence  , umpires against him , pitchers knowing his weaknesses  and him not adjusting  ...

 

Larnach  , last chance for him to wear a twins uniform  , it's definitely a prove it week , month or year ...

Small sample size during his rehab , I was out of town in Texas during spring training so I'm not sure how he was doing before the injury  , would be nice to see some production  from him  , if not I see no reason to think he will Remain a twin ...

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

This might be snark, but I'm all for it. Larnach struggles? Go to E-Rod, Keirsey, Williams, Prato, Helman.

You can do this with Wallner and Julien and Miranda if needed, you don't paint yourself into a corner. You can't do it with Margot and Santana; you're stuck with them.

May just happen, unattached veteran pot is pretty empty.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

This might be snark, but I'm all for it. Larnach struggles? Go to E-Rod, Keirsey, Williams, Prato, Helman.

You can do this with Wallner and Julien and Miranda if needed, you don't paint yourself into a corner. You can't do it with Margot and Santana; you're stuck with them.

It isn't snark, it is the current reality.  The Twins decided to move away from keeping/signing established players this past offseason and roll with a number of relatively unproven players with potential.  You have to accept the results.

The Twins obviously do not have as much faith in the youth movement as the fans.  Why else did they go out and sign DeSclafani, Margot, Santana, keep Farmer instead of rolling with the "prospects" in AAA?

[Schmoeman5]

40 minutes ago, Danchat said:

This is Larnach's fourth major shot at earning a spot with the Twins and staying there. After failing to stick for the first three, I find it doubtful the fourth time is the charm but there is no harm in trying. 

Here's what's funny. When he was sent down last year he was leading the team in RBIs so it wasn't just he was struggling, but he had options. Did he deserve to get sent down last year? Less than Wallner does now. Wallner has done nothing. Right now he has too many people in his ear. The best thing he can do is go down and get some confidence. 

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It isn't snark, it is the current reality.  The Twins decided to move away from keeping/signing established players this past offseason and roll with a number of relatively unproven players with potential.  You have to accept the results.

The Twins obviously do not have as much faith in the youth movement as the fans.  Why else did they go out and sign DeSclafani, Margot, Santana, keep Farmer instead of rolling with the "prospects" in AAA?

Outside of the Correa/Donaldson types, I haven't been a fan of the established offensive players they acquire anyway.

The difference in production between third tier free agents or trade targets and the internal options tends to be minimal at best and then you lose all flexibility.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Here's what's funny. When he was sent down last year he was leading the team in RBIs so it wasn't just he was struggling, but he had options. Did he deserve to get sent down last year? Less than Wallner does now. Wallner has done nothing. Right now he has too many people in his ear. The best thing he can do is go down and get some confidence. 

Larnach's monthly splits each year are all over the place. He tends to find one good month to perform than tank the rest.

It would be nice if he popped right out of the gate and then they can move him when the other bats come back or someone like E-Rod demands a callup.

[chpettit19]

Larnach and Wallner are both in very similar spots as far as where their futures go. Wallner's extra options means he's going to have a longer time to figure it out with the Twins moving forward, but they both have books out on them with every MLB team. Everybody knows how to get them out.

Trevor needs to learn to recognize and hit MLB off-speed pitches. Matt needs to learn to hit things on the inner third of the plate and down. Their MLB careers depend on them being able to figure those things out. From all reports they're both incredibly hard workers who put in the effort. I hope they both figure it out. With the Twins preferably.

[Dman]

This smells like absolute desperation at this point. Larnach has a .559 OPS in A ball right now.  He's not on a hot streak by any means and isn't even facing high end competition.  There are 19 years old's hitting better than he is down there right now.

I guess they really feel Wallner needs a reset, but it doesn't seem like Larnach is the answer right now.  Maybe a fresh start does both  players good, but literally no offensive production from the typical high production left field position is killing this team right now.  If those two can't get it together soon Emmanual Rodriguez is going to get his chance much sooner than I imagined.

[bean5302]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Larnach and Wallner are both in very similar spots as far as where their futures go. Wallner's extra options means he's going to have a longer time to figure it out with the Twins moving forward, but they both have books out on them with every MLB team. Everybody knows how to get them out.

Trevor needs to learn to recognize and hit MLB off-speed pitches. Matt needs to learn to hit things on the inner third of the plate and down. Their MLB careers depend on them being able to figure those things out. From all reports they're both incredibly hard workers who put in the effort. I hope they both figure it out. With the Twins preferably.

I don't think they're particularly similar except they play corner OF and they're left handed.

Larnach is a 27 year old line drive hitter with moderate game power who's weak against everything other than the 4 seamer or curveball. He's constantly hurt and lacks the athleticism to be a plus value defender, but his excellent baseball IQ/instincts have allowed him to adequately cover LF. He's a career wRC+96 hitter in 693 PA across 3 seasons while never projecting higher than about a 1.5-2.0 WAR full time player.

Waller is a 26 year old home run hitting elite power bat with no glaring weaknesses against particular pitches. In 352 PA he owns a wRC+ of 129. While he has far more speed and athleticism than Larnach, Wallner lacks the instincts and has often looked awkward in the outfield. Wallner has proven to be pretty durable, logging over 550-600+ PA the past two seasons between MiLB and MLB. Last year, in 254 PA, he projected as a near All Star caliber producer, a guy in that 3.5 WAR full season range. Basically, a better producer than a typical Max Kepler season.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think they're particularly similar except they play corner OF and they're left handed.

Larnach is a 27 year old line drive hitter with moderate game power who's weak against everything other than the 4 seamer or curveball. He's constantly hurt and lacks the athleticism to be a plus value defender, but his excellent baseball IQ/instincts have allowed him to adequately cover LF. He's a career wRC+96 hitter in 693 PA across 3 seasons while never projecting higher than about a 1.5-2.0 WAR full time player.

Waller is a 26 year old home run hitting elite power bat with no glaring weaknesses against particular pitches. In 352 PA he owns a wRC+ of 129. While he has far more speed and athleticism than Larnach, Wallner lacks the instincts and has often looked awkward in the outfield. Wallner has proven to be pretty durable, logging over 550-600+ PA the past two seasons between MiLB and MLB. Last year, in 254 PA, he projected as a near All Star caliber producer, a guy in that 3.5 WAR full season range. Basically, a better producer than a typical Max Kepler season.

Good thing I didn't compare them in that way then. I said they're in similar spots in terms of where their futures as MLB players go. Didn't compare them as players in anyway beyond the fact that the league knows how to get them out and they have to show they can close those holes or their careers will never take off. 

Larnach struggles against pitch types while Wallner struggles with pitch locations. The league knows that and neither will ever succeed in the majors if they can't make adjustments to the very clear and obvious ways the league is getting them out.

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Good thing I didn't compare them in that way then. I said they're in similar spots in terms of where their futures as MLB players go. Didn't compare them as players in anyway beyond the fact that the league knows how to get them out and they have to show they can close those holes or their careers will never take off.

Last year, Larnach had a 39 percent K rate; this year Wallner has a 68 percent K rate.

Not much more needs to be saidl

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Waller is a 26 year old home run hitting elite power bat with no glaring weaknesses against particular pitches. In 352 PA he owns a wRC+ of 129.

Somewhere in LA, Sano is wishing people would have defended him a bit more 😜

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Last year, Larnach had a 39 percent K rate; this year Wallner has a 68 percent K rate.

Not much more needs to be saidl

Or 34% and 51.5%. But, yes, they both strike out way too much because they can't hit certain pitches or pitches in certain locations.

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Or 34% and 51.5%. But, yes, they both strike out way too much because they can't hit certain pitches or pitches in certain locations.

Also, while new Twins Santana and Margot have reasonable strikeout numbers (and terrible numbers everywhere else) they have career high strikeout numbers. This isn't a coincidence, the Twins are manufacturing a method that makes EVERYONE strikeout more than they should.

[bean5302]

 

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Good thing I didn't compare them in that way then. I said they're in similar spots in terms of where their futures as MLB players go. Didn't compare them as players in anyway beyond the fact that the league knows how to get them out and they have to show they can close those holes or their careers will never take off. 

Larnach struggles against pitch types while Wallner struggles with pitch locations. The league knows that and neither will ever succeed in the majors if they can't make adjustments to the very clear and obvious ways the league is getting them out.

Virtually every single hitter in MLB has pitch locations they struggle with. Here's Mike Trout, aka best player in all of baseball not connected to PEDs over the past 50 years. (circa 2022). Struggles against pitches high in the zone. That's 4 out of the 9 zones he doesn't drive well.

I tossed in Wallner last year, just for funsies... strange. Looks a heck of a lot like Trout in terms of these glaring weaknesses you cite.
 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

Virtually every single hitter in MLB has pitch locations they struggle with. Here's Mike Trout, aka best player in all of baseball not connected to PEDs over the past 50 years. (circa 2022). Struggles against pitches high in the zone. That's 4 out of the 9 zones he doesn't drive well.

I tossed in Wallner last year, just for funsies... strange. Looks a heck of a lot like Trout in terms of these glaring weaknesses you cite.
 

Ok? And? Are you suggesting there isn't a book out on Wallner that you can beat him in and soft down and away? Because that's what every pitcher he faces is doing to him. I have no idea what you're trying to argue with me about.

Trevor Larnach struggles with MLB off-speed pitches so MLB pitchers throw him league leading numbers of off-speed pitches and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career.

Matt Wallner struggles with MLB pitches in and down so MLB pitchers throw him an extreme number of pitches in and down and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career.

Those are my statements. I don't know why you're telling me Larnach and Wallner aren't similar players when I didn't say they were, and I'm not sure why you're bringing up Mike Trout. Matt Wallner has massive holes in his swing and they're being exploited at a staggering rate right now. Trevor Larnach has a real weakness recognizing and hitting off-speed pitches and it's been exploited for years now. If you'd like to dispute those statements feel free. Not sure why you're arguing anything else when that's all I'm saying.

[mikelink45]

182

.286

.273

.558

 What do we expect form Larnach when this is his slash line in the minors?

Keirsey and Fajardo what have made more sense for me.

[hitterscount]

This move isn't going to change anything. They are dead last in team BA and 3rd to last in runs scored. They cannot hit, strike out way too much and fail to perform fundamental baseball. Throw in a defense that is beginning to falter and this season has disaster written all over it. 

Buxton, Margot, Castro, Santana all hitting around .200 are not helping matters... so no, this move does nothing.